Taiwan voters dismiss China warnings and hand ruling party a historic third consecutive presidential win
By Eric Cheung, Wayne Chang, Nectar Gan and Jerome Taylor, CNN
Published Jan 13, 2024
Taiwan President-elect Lai Ching-te, of Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) and his running mate Hsiao Bi-khim arrive for a press conference following their victory in the presidential elections on January 13, 2024.
Taipei, Taiwan (CNN) — Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party pulled off a historic third consecutive presidential victory on Saturday as voters shrugged off warnings by China that their re-election would increase the risk of conflict.
Lai Ching-te, Taiwan’s current vice president, declared victory on Saturday evening while his two main opposition rivals both conceded defeat.
In a speech to jubilant supporters on Saturday evening Lai called his win a “victory for the community of democracies.”
“We are telling the international community that between democracy and authoritarianism, we still stand on the side of democracy,” he said.
“I will act in accordance with our democratic and free constitutional order in a manner that is balanced and maintains the cross-strait status quo,” he added. “At the same time, we are also determined to safeguard Taiwan from continuing threats and intimidation from China”.
Lai’s running mate Hsiao Bi-khim, who recently served as Taiwan’s top envoy to the United States, was elected Vice President.
Results from Taiwan’s Central Election Committee, which were still being finalized when the victory and concession speeches were being made, showed Lai with around 40 percent of the popular vote while his two main rivals trailed with 33 percent and 26 percent respectively.
The boisterous election campaign, an illustration of Taiwan’s vibrant democratic credentials, was fought over a mixture of livelihood issues as well as the thorny question of how to deal with its giant one-party state neighbor, China, which under leader Xi Jinping has grown more powerful and bellicose.
The result shows voters backing the DPP’s view that Taiwan is a de facto sovereign nation that should bolster defenses against China’s threats and deepen relations with fellow democratic countries, even if that means economic punishment or military intimidation by Beijing.
It is also a further snub to eight years of increasingly strongarm tactics towards Taiwan under Xi who has vowed that the island’s eventual “reunification” with the mainland is “a historical inevitability”.
Like outgoing president Tsai Ing-wen, who cannot stand again because of term limits, Lai is openly loathed by China’s Communist Party leaders and his victory is unlikely to lead to any improvement in ties between Beijing and Taipei.
China cut off most communications with Taipei after Tsai took office and ramped up diplomatic, economic and military pressure on the self-ruled island, turning the Taiwan Strait into one of the world’s major geopolitical flash points.
China’s ruling Communist Party views Taiwan as part of its territory, despite having never controlled it. While successive Chinese Communist leaders have vowed to eventually achieve “reunification,” Xi has repeatedly said the Taiwan issue “should not be passed down generation after generation,” linking the mission to his mid-century goal of “national rejuvenation.”
The DPP emphasizes that Taiwan is not subordinate to the Chinese Communist Party, and that its future Taiwan must only be decided by its 23.5 million people.
In the run up to Saturday’s vote, Beijing warned Taiwan’s voters to “make the right choice” and “recognize the extreme danger of Lai Ching-te’s triggering of cross-strait confrontation and conflict.”
His running mate Hsiao has been sanctioned twice by China for being a “stubborn secessionist.”
Speaking to the media ahead of his victory speech on Saturday night, Lai said he hoped relations with China could return to a “healthy and sustainable way of exchanges”.
“In the future, we hope that China will recognize the new situation, and understand that only peace benefits both sides of the strait,” he added.
Blow for Beijing
Lai’s victory comes as the US is trying to stabilize fraught relations with China and prevent competition from veering into conflict. During Tsai’s administration, Taiwan bolstered ties with the United States, its biggest international backer, which increased support and arms sales to the island.
US officials have said that Washington will uphold its longstanding policy toward Taiwan no matter who takes on the top job. The Biden administration will dispatch an unofficial delegation – including former senior officials – to Taipei following the election in keeping with past practice, according to senior officials.
The delegation visit “will be a signal, a very symbolic way of supporting Taiwan,” said T.Y. Wang, a professor at Illinois State University.
Saturday’s result is another major blow for Taiwan’s Kuomintang, which back warmer relations with Beijing and have not held the presidency since 2016.
Beijing made little secret of its desire to see the KMT return to power. During campaigning the KMT accused Lai and the DPP of needlessly stoking tensions with China.
Lev Nachman, a political science professor at Taiwan’s National Chengchi University, said that while Lai has to make some economic adjustments given deep public grievances over low wages and unaffordable housing, on issues like foreign policy and cross-strait relations he is expected to largely follow Tsai’s approach.
“So much of (Lai’s) campaign has been trying to reassure not just a domestic audience, but international audience that he is Tsai Ing-wen 2.0,” he said.
That will not be welcome in Beijing.
Days before the election, China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said by following Tsai’s path, Lai is pursuing a path of provocation and confrontation and will bring Taiwan “closer and closer to war and recession.”
Analysts say China could escalate economic and military pressure on Taiwan to show its displeasure in the coming days and weeks, or save a more forceful response for May, when Lai takes office.
“There’s multiple times that China could cause a fuss over a DPP victory, either now or later this year,” Nachman said.
And Beijing has a wide range of coercive measures in its toolbox too.
In the lead-up to the vote, China ended preferential tariffs for some Taiwanese imports under a free trade agreement. It could broaden the scope of goods targeted, or even suspend the agreement altogether.
China can also further ramp up its military pressure on Taiwan, sending more fighter jets and warships close to the island’s skies and waters, a tactic it has deployed with increased frequency in recent years.
But Taiwan’s security officials said ahead of the vote that they didn’t expect large-scale military actions from China right after the election, citing unsuitable winter weather conditions, troubles in the Chinese economy, and efforts by Beijing and Washington to stabilize ties following a bilateral summit in November.
And while an escalation of military tension could increase the risks of accidents and miscalculations, it doesn’t necessarily portend an imminent conflict in the Taiwan Strait, analysts noted.
“Just because the DPP is in power doesn’t mean China’s going to war,” said Nachman.
“The last eight years have obviously been uncomfortable with the DPP in power, but it hasn’t led to war, they’ve been able to find an uncomfortable middle ground. And the hope is that even with a Lai presidency that we can continue to have this sort of uncomfortable silence without having to go to war.”
This story was first published on CNN.com, "Taiwan’s main opposition party concedes defeat in presidential election"
Biden says Taiwan’s independence is up to Taiwan after discussing matter with XiBy Eric Cheung, Wayne Chang, Nectar Gan and Jerome Taylor, CNN
Published Jan 13, 2024
Taiwan President-elect Lai Ching-te, of Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) and his running mate Hsiao Bi-khim arrive for a press conference following their victory in the presidential elections on January 13, 2024.
Taipei, Taiwan (CNN) — Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party pulled off a historic third consecutive presidential victory on Saturday as voters shrugged off warnings by China that their re-election would increase the risk of conflict.
Lai Ching-te, Taiwan’s current vice president, declared victory on Saturday evening while his two main opposition rivals both conceded defeat.
In a speech to jubilant supporters on Saturday evening Lai called his win a “victory for the community of democracies.”
“We are telling the international community that between democracy and authoritarianism, we still stand on the side of democracy,” he said.
“I will act in accordance with our democratic and free constitutional order in a manner that is balanced and maintains the cross-strait status quo,” he added. “At the same time, we are also determined to safeguard Taiwan from continuing threats and intimidation from China”.
Lai’s running mate Hsiao Bi-khim, who recently served as Taiwan’s top envoy to the United States, was elected Vice President.
Results from Taiwan’s Central Election Committee, which were still being finalized when the victory and concession speeches were being made, showed Lai with around 40 percent of the popular vote while his two main rivals trailed with 33 percent and 26 percent respectively.
The boisterous election campaign, an illustration of Taiwan’s vibrant democratic credentials, was fought over a mixture of livelihood issues as well as the thorny question of how to deal with its giant one-party state neighbor, China, which under leader Xi Jinping has grown more powerful and bellicose.
The result shows voters backing the DPP’s view that Taiwan is a de facto sovereign nation that should bolster defenses against China’s threats and deepen relations with fellow democratic countries, even if that means economic punishment or military intimidation by Beijing.
It is also a further snub to eight years of increasingly strongarm tactics towards Taiwan under Xi who has vowed that the island’s eventual “reunification” with the mainland is “a historical inevitability”.
Like outgoing president Tsai Ing-wen, who cannot stand again because of term limits, Lai is openly loathed by China’s Communist Party leaders and his victory is unlikely to lead to any improvement in ties between Beijing and Taipei.
China cut off most communications with Taipei after Tsai took office and ramped up diplomatic, economic and military pressure on the self-ruled island, turning the Taiwan Strait into one of the world’s major geopolitical flash points.
China’s ruling Communist Party views Taiwan as part of its territory, despite having never controlled it. While successive Chinese Communist leaders have vowed to eventually achieve “reunification,” Xi has repeatedly said the Taiwan issue “should not be passed down generation after generation,” linking the mission to his mid-century goal of “national rejuvenation.”
The DPP emphasizes that Taiwan is not subordinate to the Chinese Communist Party, and that its future Taiwan must only be decided by its 23.5 million people.
In the run up to Saturday’s vote, Beijing warned Taiwan’s voters to “make the right choice” and “recognize the extreme danger of Lai Ching-te’s triggering of cross-strait confrontation and conflict.”
His running mate Hsiao has been sanctioned twice by China for being a “stubborn secessionist.”
Speaking to the media ahead of his victory speech on Saturday night, Lai said he hoped relations with China could return to a “healthy and sustainable way of exchanges”.
“In the future, we hope that China will recognize the new situation, and understand that only peace benefits both sides of the strait,” he added.
Blow for Beijing
Lai’s victory comes as the US is trying to stabilize fraught relations with China and prevent competition from veering into conflict. During Tsai’s administration, Taiwan bolstered ties with the United States, its biggest international backer, which increased support and arms sales to the island.
US officials have said that Washington will uphold its longstanding policy toward Taiwan no matter who takes on the top job. The Biden administration will dispatch an unofficial delegation – including former senior officials – to Taipei following the election in keeping with past practice, according to senior officials.
The delegation visit “will be a signal, a very symbolic way of supporting Taiwan,” said T.Y. Wang, a professor at Illinois State University.
Saturday’s result is another major blow for Taiwan’s Kuomintang, which back warmer relations with Beijing and have not held the presidency since 2016.
Beijing made little secret of its desire to see the KMT return to power. During campaigning the KMT accused Lai and the DPP of needlessly stoking tensions with China.
Lev Nachman, a political science professor at Taiwan’s National Chengchi University, said that while Lai has to make some economic adjustments given deep public grievances over low wages and unaffordable housing, on issues like foreign policy and cross-strait relations he is expected to largely follow Tsai’s approach.
“So much of (Lai’s) campaign has been trying to reassure not just a domestic audience, but international audience that he is Tsai Ing-wen 2.0,” he said.
That will not be welcome in Beijing.
Days before the election, China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said by following Tsai’s path, Lai is pursuing a path of provocation and confrontation and will bring Taiwan “closer and closer to war and recession.”
Analysts say China could escalate economic and military pressure on Taiwan to show its displeasure in the coming days and weeks, or save a more forceful response for May, when Lai takes office.
“There’s multiple times that China could cause a fuss over a DPP victory, either now or later this year,” Nachman said.
And Beijing has a wide range of coercive measures in its toolbox too.
In the lead-up to the vote, China ended preferential tariffs for some Taiwanese imports under a free trade agreement. It could broaden the scope of goods targeted, or even suspend the agreement altogether.
China can also further ramp up its military pressure on Taiwan, sending more fighter jets and warships close to the island’s skies and waters, a tactic it has deployed with increased frequency in recent years.
But Taiwan’s security officials said ahead of the vote that they didn’t expect large-scale military actions from China right after the election, citing unsuitable winter weather conditions, troubles in the Chinese economy, and efforts by Beijing and Washington to stabilize ties following a bilateral summit in November.
And while an escalation of military tension could increase the risks of accidents and miscalculations, it doesn’t necessarily portend an imminent conflict in the Taiwan Strait, analysts noted.
“Just because the DPP is in power doesn’t mean China’s going to war,” said Nachman.
“The last eight years have obviously been uncomfortable with the DPP in power, but it hasn’t led to war, they’ve been able to find an uncomfortable middle ground. And the hope is that even with a Lai presidency that we can continue to have this sort of uncomfortable silence without having to go to war.”
This story was first published on CNN.com, "Taiwan’s main opposition party concedes defeat in presidential election"
By Kevin Liptak, CNN
CNN —
President Joe Biden made clear Tuesday evening he was not encouraging Taiwan’s “independence” after using the word an hour earlier to describe the progress he made during a discussion of the island with his Chinese counterpart Monday evening.
“I said that they have to decide – Taiwan, not us. We are not encouraging independence,” Biden said on an airport tarmac in New Hampshire, where he was promoting his recently signed infrastructure law.
“We’re encouraging that they do exactly what the Taiwan Act requires,” he went on, referring to the 1979 law dictating the American approach to the island. “That’s what we’re doing. Let them make up their mind. Period.”
Explaining his position earlier while greeting attendees following his infrastructure speech, Biden said he had made limited progress on the topic with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
“We made very clear we support the Taiwan Act, and that’s it,” he said, shaking hands near a rickety iron bridge in sore need of repair.
“Its independence,” he went on. “It makes its own decisions.”
President Joe Biden made clear Tuesday evening he was not encouraging Taiwan’s “independence” after using the word an hour earlier to describe the progress he made during a discussion of the island with his Chinese counterpart Monday evening.
“I said that they have to decide – Taiwan, not us. We are not encouraging independence,” Biden said on an airport tarmac in New Hampshire, where he was promoting his recently signed infrastructure law.
“We’re encouraging that they do exactly what the Taiwan Act requires,” he went on, referring to the 1979 law dictating the American approach to the island. “That’s what we’re doing. Let them make up their mind. Period.”
Explaining his position earlier while greeting attendees following his infrastructure speech, Biden said he had made limited progress on the topic with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
“We made very clear we support the Taiwan Act, and that’s it,” he said, shaking hands near a rickety iron bridge in sore need of repair.
“Its independence,” he went on. “It makes its own decisions.”
VIDEO
China and Taiwan's relationship explained
The various explanations of his approach to the issue underscored the fraught position Taiwan now holds in the deteriorating relationship between Washington and Beijing. Tensions have been running high as China increases its military posturing and warplane flights around the self-ruled island.
The word “independence” is a trigger when it comes to Taiwan; officially, the US does not support Taiwan’s independence. Instead, the countries enjoy unofficial relations and the US provides defensive support.
The approach is sometimes termed “strategic ambiguity,” and has caused previous trip-ups for both Biden and his presidential predecessors. Last month, when Biden said during a CNN town hall that the US was committed to coming to Taiwan’s defense if it came under attack from China, the White House said he was not announcing any change in policy.
The issue consumed the most time of any during Biden’s lengthy virtual summit with Xi on Monday evening. Ahead of time, the Chinese signaled it was their most important priority to discuss with the US.
In the talks, Biden raised his concerns over China’s behavior in the region. While he reaffirmed the US “One China” policy, which recognizes Beijing’s claim of sovereignty but allows for US defense ties with Taiwan, he voiced worry that China’s actions were destabilizing the region.
The charged nature of the topic was evident immediately after Biden and Xi’s summit, which stretched a longer-than-expected three-and-a-half hours. Chinese State Television reported almost as soon as the summit concluded that Biden affirmed to Xi the US did not support Taiwan’s independence.
US officials downplayed the significance of the statement, noting it was longstanding official US policy. Instead, they said Biden made clear to Xi the US opposes any change to the status quo, or any actions that “undermine peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.”
The Chinese offered a more combative interpretation of the conversation. They said Xi told Biden his country would be compelled to take “resolute measures” if separatist forces in Taiwan cross a “red line,” according to a readout from China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
“Such moves are extremely dangerous, just like playing with fire. Whoever plays with fire will get burnt,” the readout said.
In the wake of the summit, US and Chinese officials plan to intensify their engagement on Taiwan, according to Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan, who said the two leaders spent a “good amount of time” on the issue.
“Ensuring peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, having clear communication, avoiding miscommunication, is going to be an important and intensive aspect of work between our militaries, our national security councils and between our diplomats,” Sullivan said during an appearance at the Brookings Institution. “So you will see at multiple levels an intensification of the engagement to ensure that there are guardrails around this competition so that it doesn’t veer off into conflict.”
For his part, Biden noted to Xi that he voted for the Taiwan Act in 1979, when he was a young senator. It contributed to what Sullivan described as a “very familiar” relationship between the two men, who traveled extensively together when each was serving as his country’s vice president.
“One of the dynamics of when they talk now is they both revert back to previous things each of them have said,” Sullivan said, “not just to agree with one another, but to disagree with one another, while they’re debating.”
Still, the White House said familiarity does not equal friendship – despite the way Xi greeted Biden as their summit began.
As Xi was beaming into the Roosevelt Room from a cavernous space inside the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, he addressed Biden in collegial and warm terms: “Although it’s not as good as a face-to-face meeting, I’m very happy to see my old friend,” he said, using the Chinese phrase “lao peng you” to convey his level of familiarity.
It was only a few months ago, however, that Biden was adamant he did not regard Xi on those terms: “Let’s get something straight. We know each other well; we’re not old friends. It’s just pure business,” Biden said in June.
On Tuesday, the White House said it couldn’t speak for Xi’s motives in describing Biden the way he did.
“But he does not,” deputy press secretary Andrew Bates told reporters aboard Air Force One, “consider President Xi an old friend.”
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