UK 

Rishi Sunak remains less popular than Liz Truss when she was PM, poll suggests

EXCLUSIVE

A poll for i is disappointing reading for the Prime Minister, revealing a relatively popular Labour leader and trust in the opposition

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak speaks against a stormy backdrop. Storm clouds are gathering among his parliamentary colleagues as well. (Richard Pohle/The Times/PA)

By Arj Singh

Deputy Political Editor

February 3, 2024 

Rishi Sunak remains less popular than Liz Truss was during her disastrous stint as prime minister, an exclusive poll suggests.

While the Prime Minister’s net satisfaction rating improved by three points to -30, it still remains worse than Ms Truss’s -29, recorded amid the disaster of the mini-Budget in 2022 that ultimately cost her the job, the BMG Research survey for i reveals.

The findings will ramp up pressure on Mr Sunak amid a Conservative plot to try and oust him from office over fears he will lead the party into election disaster.

It will also be disappointing for the Prime Minister, showing he is making little headway with voters despite managing to steer his flagship Rwanda Safety Bill through parliament and an improving economy.

Both however enjoyed better overall ratings than Boris Johnson, who was on -35 in the wake of the Partygate scandal in summer 2022.

Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, meanwhile enjoyed a net positive rating (+1) for the first time since February 2023, driven by a simultaneous decline in dissatisfaction (35 per cent to 31 per cent) and increase in satisfaction (29 per cent to 32 per cent).

Labour meanwhile continued to enjoy a double digit lead over the Tories, with 44 per cent of voters saying they would back the Opposition party in a general election over 29 per cent for Mr Sunak’s party.

Labour’s lead decreased from 17 per cent to 15 per cent since November, but the party remains on course for a dominant election victory as it still increased its own rating by a point, according to the survey.

Meanwhile, the Tories gained two points as Reform’s vote share declined from an 11 per cent high in November to 8 per cent this month, in what will help calm fears among Conservatives about the threat posed by Nigel Farage’s party.

Labour is 15 points ahead in the first poll of the year for i by BMG Research

Labour is trusted by a higher share of voters on every single tracked issue, enjoying the strongest leads over the Tories for health and the NHS (21 per cent), social care (20 per cent), welfare and benefits (20 per cent) and housing (20 per cent).

The only issue where Labour previously did not have a lead was the war in Ukraine, but, for the first time, it now polls better than the Conservatives, if only slenderly (1 per cent).

Robert Struthers, research director at BMG Research, told i: “In what is our first poll of this likely election year, the findings are very familiar. If the election were held tomorrow, Labour would win a landslide victory.

“Remarkably, our 15-point lead looks relatively small by comparison to some pollsters.

“Our method includes an adjustment for undecided voters, who we presume in part will revert to their previous voting patterns.

“This means our calculations account for some undecided 2019 Conservatives voting Conservative again, meaning Labour’s 15-point lead looks all the more assured.

“Behind the voting intention numbers is an equally worrying picture for the Conservatives.

“We’ve seen for a long time that Labour is more trusted on key issues like the cost of living, the economy, and even immigration.

“But we now see Labour sweep the board – being level or ahead on every issue, even on previous Conservative strong points such as foreign affairs and defence issues, including the Ukraine and the Israel-Gaza conflict.

“The Conservatives, historically seen as the guardians of national security and economic leadership, now find themselves adrift in a political landscape where they lack a clear stronghold.

“This uncertainty complicates their strategy, making the task of selecting focal points for their upcoming election campaign all the more challenging.”

:: BMG Research interviewed a representative sample of 1,505 GB adults online between 30 and 31 January. BMG are members of the British Polling Council and abide by their rules.

More Misery For Rishi Sunak As Poll

Suggests Tories Could Win Fewer Than 100 

Seats

Labour's lead is widening as the general election gets closer.

By Kevin Schofield
02/02/2024

Sunak arrives for the Help To Grow campaign launch
WPA POOL VIA GETTY IMAGES


The Tories could end up with fewer than 100 seats at the general election, a new poll has suggested.


The Techne survey showed support for the Conservatives has fallen again to just 23%, while Labour has gone up by one point to 45%.


According to the Electoral Calculus website, that would put Rishi Sunak’s party on just 93 seats - a staggering 283 fewer than they won at the 2019 election.


Labour would win 484, up 287 on four years ago.


The Lib Dems - who are on 10% in the poll - would see their number of seats quadruple from 8 to 34, while the SNP would fall from 48 to 18.


That would hand Labour an overall majority of more than 200 seats.

The prediction makes grim reading for the Tories.

ELECTORAL CALCULUS


It follows a series of polls since the start of 2024 which have shown Labour stretching their lead as the general election draws closer.


A mega-poll of 14,000 voters last week predicted Keir Starmer is on course to become prime minister with a 120-seat majority.


That prompted speculation that Sunak could be ousted by his panicking MPs.


Former cabinet minister Simon Clarke said the Tories would be “massacred” unless they change leader yet again.


Sunak will come under fresh pressure if, as expected, the Conservatives lose the two upcoming by-elections in Wellingborough and Kingswood.


The Tories are also expected to lose hundreds of seats in May’s local elections, another potential flashpoint for the prime minister.