Climate change will see Australia’s soil emit CO2 and add to global warming
Soil helps to keep the planet cool by absorbing carbon, however as the climate gets warmer its ability to retain carbon decreases — and in some instances can start to release some carbon back into the air
Peer-Reviewed PublicationNew Curtin University research has shown the warming climate will turn Australia’s soil into a net emitter of carbon dioxide (CO2), unless action is taken.
Soil helps to keep the planet cool by absorbing carbon, however as the climate gets warmer its ability to retain carbon decreases — and in some instances can start to release some carbon back into the air.
A global research team — led by Professor Raphael Viscarra Rossel from Curtin’s School of Molecular and Life Sciences— predicted the changes in the amount of carbon in Australia’s soil between now and the year 2100.
To do so, the team ran simulations using three different paths for society: an eco-focused ‘sustainable’ scenario, a ‘middle-of-the-road’ scenario and another which predicted a continued reliance on ‘fossil-fuelled development’.
It found Australian soil will be a net emitter and could account for 8.3 per cent of Australia’s total current emissions under the ‘sustainable’ scenario and more than 14 per cent by 2045 under the ‘middle-of-the-road’ and ‘fossil-fuelled’ scenarios.
By 2100, soil emissions under both scenarios are predicted to account for an even higher proportion of total emissions, but the predictions are more uncertain.
While some areas with arable farmland could continue to store carbon, the study found it would not be enough to offset the amounts of carbon lost from the soil in areas which are more sensitive to warmer weather, such as coastal regions and Australia’s vast rangelands.
Australian soil holds an estimated 28 gigatons of carbon, 70 per cent of which is stored in these rangelands.
“Unless farming methods are further improved so farmland soils can continue to store carbon, any gains and benefit will likely decrease by 2045 and worsen in time, if the Earth continues to warm at its current rate,” Professor Viscarra Rossel said.
“This means Australia’s soil could release even more carbon into the air instead of storing it, which will in turn make climate change worse.
“If emissions continue at the current rate, the Earth’s temperature is expected to reach 2 degrees above pre-industrial temperatures sometime this century, which is predicted to have dire consequences and
potentially catastrophic impacts for the planet.”
Professor Viscarra Rossel said more sustainable pathways and improved management and conservation of soils were essential for Australia to meet its emissions reduction goals.
“Ensuring Australia’s rangeland soils can maintain their carbon stocks is imperative: capturing and storing additional carbon will require interdisciplinary science, innovation, cultural awareness and effective policies” Professor Viscarra Rossel said.
“It will be challenging, given the rangelands’ drier and more variable climate, its relatively sparse vegetation and other factors such as bushfires — however, only a slight change over such large areas will make a positive difference.
“Innovative grazing management, cultural burning and regenerating biodiverse, endemic native plant communities, for example, could see rangelands soils absorb and store more water and carbon, reduce erosion and lead to more stable ecosystems – and ultimately, fewer emissions.”
‘A warming climate will make Australian soil a net emitter of atmospheric CO2’ was published in NPJ Climate and Atmospheric Science.
JOURNAL
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
METHOD OF RESEARCH
Computational simulation/modeling
SUBJECT OF RESEARCH
Not applicable
ARTICLE TITLE
A warming climate will make Australian soil a net emitter of atmospheric CO2
ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE
26-Mar-2024
A global map of how climate change is changing winegrowing regions
IMAGE:
WINE LANDSCAPE. CAPTION WITH DRONE
view moreCREDIT: INRAE - LAURENT GUICHARDON
Grapes grown to make wine are sensitive to climate conditions such as temperature and extreme drought. These effects are already visible worldwide on yields, the composition of grapes and the quality of wines, with already and soon-to-be-observed consequences on the geography of wine production. Understanding shifts in wine production potential due to climate change is a major scientific concern. Based on their expertise and a thorough analysis of the scientific literature — over 250 publications in the last 20 years – a research team has established a global map of evolving trends in the threats and potential benefits that climate change brings to existing and new winegrowing regions. They did so by studying the effects of changes in temperature, rainfall, humidity, radiation and CO2 on wine production and exploring adaptation strategies.
Climate winners, climate losers
Winegrowing regions are primarily located at mid-latitudes where the climate is warm enough to allow grape ripening, but without excessive heat, and relatively dry to avoid strong fungal disease pressure. Rises in temperature – one of the most emblematic symptoms of climate change – accelerate vine development and the early ripening of grapes during the hottest periods in the summer. Harvesting in most vineyards now begins two to three weeks earlier than it did 40 years ago, with effects on grapes and the resulting styles of wines. Temperature increases, for example, can change how a wine tastes if grapes lose acidity, increase wine alcohol, and modify aromatic signatures. On a global scale, climate change could reduce growable surface area in current wine regions and increase it in others.
If global warming exceeds 2°C, some 90% of all traditional winegrowing areas in the coastal and plains regions of Spain, Italy, Greece and southern California may become unable to produce high-quality wine in economically sustainable conditions by the end of the century due to risks of excessive drought and more frequent heat waves. Conversely, higher temperatures could improve the suitability of other regions for the production of quality wines, including northern France, the states of Washington and Oregon in the United States, the province of British Columbia in Canada and Tasmania in Australia. They could even create new wine regions, in Belgium, Netherlands and Denmark.
The emergence of new diseases and pests, as well as an increase in the frequency of extreme events, are other upcoming challenges for producers. Vineyards can withstand global warming below the 2°C limit by using more drought-resistant grape varieties and rootstocks and by adopting management methods that better preserve soil water, such as decreasing vineyard density and protecting against erosion, as demonstrated by several studies conducted in partnership with winegrowers[1]. Adaptation strategies also depend heavily on local conditions and are only worthwhile if they can ensure the economic viability of production. Producers in higher latitudes, on the other hand, may see their yields and the quality of their wine increase thanks to rising temperatures.
This study confirms the heightened threat that climate change poses to the quality of wines produced in traditional vineyards. It also confirms the key 2°C limit beyond which global warming will make major changes necessary in wine production worldwide.
[1] See the results of the LACCAVE research partnership on measures to adapt viticulture to climate change https://www.inrae.fr/en/news/laccave-ten-year-research-partnership-adapt-viticulture-climate-change
These results are also available in a book (in French): https://www.inrae.fr/actualites/vigne-vin-changement-climatique
JOURNAL
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
ARTICLE TITLE
Climate change impacts and adaptations of wine production
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