Forecasters Expect "Hyperactive" Hurricane Season

NOAA file image

PUBLISHED APR 8, 2024 6:59 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE

 

Based on unusually hot water temperatures in the Atlantic, Colorado State University's Tropical Weather & Climate Research lab is predicting an "extremely active" hurricane season in 2024.

The group forecasts 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes and accumulated cyclone energy of 210. These values are all about 40 percent higher than the average year, and higher than any that CSU has issued in an April forecast before. 

The root cause is "record warm" sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic. The heat is expected to last through the season, and combined with low wind shear from a La Nina cycle, it creates a favorable environment for storm formation and intensification, the researchers said. These conditions stack the odds in favor of a hurricane making landfall in the United States or in a Caribbean nation.

Based on 40 years of data, CSU's forecast models all predict a "hyperactive season." The odds of landfall in the U.S. are in the range of 62 percent (19 percentage points above average), with the highest odds on the Gulf Coast. The odds of a hurricane tracking through the Caribbean stand in the range of 66 percent. 

CSU cautioned that its April forecast is released early in the season, and is issued for rough guidance rather than precision. However, the team said that they have unusually high confidence in their outlook this year because the underlying evidence is so strong. 

Commercial forecast provider AccuWeather issued a similar prediction in March, warning that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season could be "one of the most active in history." Past hurricane seasons with similar Atlantic surface temperatures were "blockbusters," in AccuWeather's words.