Modi's Hindu nationalist politics face a test as India holds fifth stage of national election

PIYUSH NAGPAL and BISWAJEET BANERJEE
Updated Mon, May 20, 2024 



An Indian Hindu holy man shows his finger marked with indelible ink after casting his vote during the fifth round of multi-phase national elections outside a polling station in Ayodhya, India, Monday, May 20, 2024. (AP Photo/Rajesh Kumar Singh)

AYODHYA, India (AP) — When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi opened a Hindu temple on the site of a razed mosque in the holy city of Ayodhya in early 2024, he was making a bet on mixing Hindu nationalism and politics ahead of a national election in which he's seeking a rare third term.

On Monday, that bet faced a test as the northern city swarmed with voters, many of them Hindu devotees, lining up in scorching heat as India began the fifth phase of its six-week-long staggered national election.

Modi’s Hindu nationalist politics have resonated with many supporters, and most polls show his Bharatiya Janata Party in the lead. But it’s not clear whether that fervor can carry him to victory as Indians face rising unemployment and inflation.

“Issues like unemployment, inflation, lack of security and the government’s attempts to muzzle dissent are glaring problems that the BJP has no answers to,” said Amarnath Agarwal, a political analyst.

The staggered election will run until June 1 and nearly 970 million eligible voters, more than 10% of the world’s population, will elect 543 members to the lower house of Parliament for five years. The votes are scheduled to be counted on June 4.

Monday’s polling, in constituencies across six states and two union territories, is crucial for the BJP, as it includes some of strongholds in states like Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal.

Modi hopes to see high turnout in areas like Uttar Pradesh's Ayodhya, where a controversial temple to the god Ram was built on the grounds of a centuries-old mosque razed by Hindu mobs in 1992. Its opening was seen as a political triumph for the populist leader, who is seeking to transform the country from a secular democracy into a Hindu state. It also fulfilled a longstanding demand of the majority Hindus.

But Agarwal, the political analyst, said excitement over the Hindu temple may not have translated into a significant political issue for the ruling party and it is “evident from the lack of interest among voters, reflected in a notably low turnout.”

Most poll surveys show Modi and his party leading in the race for the lower house of Parliament. However, it faces stiff resistance from the opposition, a broad opposition alliance led by the Indian National Congress and powerful regional parties, which has tapped into discontent over bread and butter issues.

In Ayodhya, where the temperature is expected to touch 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) on Monday, voters lined up early.

Sudha Pandey, a teacher, said she isn't sure whether opening of the temple will benefit Modi's party, but said the Hindu majority is extremely happy about it.

"Ram Temple is a matter of our faith. Our faith has been emboldened by it,” she said.

Shachindra Sharma, who also votes Monday, said while the temple was a matter of faith for many Hindus like him, he would vote for a party that upholds constitutional values.

“Why should the Ram Temple be a guiding factor for voters? Lord Ram is a matter of faith, while voting is a democratic process to elect a government. Is there any guarantee that a party advocating for the Ram Temple will provide security and lead the country towards progress?" Sharma said.

His wife, Renuka Sharma, disagreed, arguing that the temple remains a crucial deciding factor in polls.

“I will vote for the party that built the Ram Temple because Lord Ram is the biggest issue in this election," she said.

Modi’s party has made the temple central to its campaign.

Uttar Pradesh’s Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, in an election rally last week, said the choice between “devotees of Ram” and “anti-Ram forces” is the defining theme of the national election, referring to the opposition parties.

“You should vote for devotees of Ram because they are the people who built Ram Temple for you,” he said.

Modi has sometimes falsely accused opposition parties of attempting to overturn the court’s verdict that allowed its construction. On Friday, he claimed that if the opposition comes to power it will raze the temple.

During election campaign, Modi has also increasingly used anti-Muslim rhetoric in his speeches. He has called Muslims “infiltrators,” insinuated that they produce more children and accused the opposition parties of planning to loot wealth from the country’s Hindus and redistribute it among Muslims.

Modi's speeches have triggered widespread criticism from the opposition, prompting him to distance himself from his comments in a series of interviews with the press. In a recent interview with News18 TV channel he denied using divisive rhetoric, and said the day he did so "I will be unworthy of public office.” He has nonetheless gone on to repeat the same rhetoric in election speeches since.

Monday’s polling will also see opposition leader Rahul Gandhi, the scion of the Gandhi-Nehru dynasty, facing voters in the Rae Bareli constituency in Uttar Pradesh state.

Gandhi also ran for office in Wayanad in southern India, which has already voted. India allows candidates to contest multiple constituencies, but they can represent only one. If he wins both, he will choose one and the other will hold a new election.

___

Banerjee reported from Lucknow, India.


As Indians Vote, Modi’s Party Misleads Online

Chad de Guzman

TIME
Tue, May 21, 2024 

A screenshot from a digital poster shared by BJP-affiliated social media accounts. Credit - X

Amid India’s weekslong election, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of Prime Minister Narendra Modi wants voters to know that it’s about action, not talk.

“Congress will say, BJP will do,” a poster shared recently by state- and district-level BJP accounts on social media asserted, referring to the opposition Indian National Congress (or Congress Party).

The campaign poster features an image of Modi in front of an elevated metro-railway and touts the expansion of transit services in India over the last decade as evidence of the BJP’s can-do spirit and results-oriented governance. Except, the background photo isn’t of anything the BJP did. In fact, it’s not a train or railway in India at all.

Indian nonpartisan news outlet Alt News identified the misleading background as a free online stock image of Jurong East station in Singapore. (TIME can confirm that the background is of the Singapore Mass Rapid Transit system, which was apparently digitally manipulated to hide the SMRT logo from the front of the train and its side door.)


Stock photo described as “free HD photo of train, grey, singapore, and wallpaper.”shawnanggg/Unsplash

It’s the latest example of the flood of disinformation and misinformation spreading in the country, particularly around political discourse. India’s elections of 2019 were already dogged by concerns of rampant false information, but experts say the problem has only intensified—fueled by the growth of generative artificial intelligence as well as the failure of tech companies and social media platforms to enforce safeguards.

And though false information has been detected across the political spectrum—from deepfakes of Bollywood stars endorsing the opposition to video of a single person casting multiple ballots (shared out of context from a training mock exercise) that casts doubt on the integrity of the election—the BJP has been notorious for its cyber armies and organized social media manipulation efforts.

Read More: All the Elections Around the World in 2024

An April report found that the BJP uses “shadow advertisers” to spread ads in support of Modi, many of which are propaganda targeting the general opposition and/or hate-based. But while much of the disinformation and misinformation appeals to an undercurrent of Hindu nationalism, as employment has become perhaps the most salient election issue this year, the BJP and its supporters have also inflated the party’s economic achievements under Modi’s rule.

In the World Economic Forum’s 2024 Global Risks Report, India was the only country where surveyed experts ranked misinformation and disinformation as its greatest threat—even greater than extreme weather, or infectious diseases, or economic downturn.

Business and Bollywood vote in India's election
AFP
Mon, May 20, 2024 

India's financial capital Mumbai began voting Monday when six-week national elections resumed (Punit PARANJPE)

A parade of India's business and entertainment elite –- many of them supporters of Prime Minister Narendra Modi -- went to the polls Monday as the financial capital Mumbai voted in the latest round of the country's election.

But turnout in the fifth round of the mammoth democratic exercise fell to its lowest so far, election commission figures showed, as parts of the country sweltered under a heatwave that saw temperatures soar to 44 degrees Celsius (111 degrees Fahrenheit).

Modi, 73, is widely expected to win a third term when the election concludes early next month, thanks in large part to his aggressive championing of India's majority Hindu faith.

"My vote is for the BJP and Modi," said Deepak Mahajan, 42, who works in banking. "There is no other choice if you care about the future of the economy and business."

Big conglomerates have provided Modi's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) a campaign war chest that dwarfs its rivals, while Bollywood stars have backed its ideological commitment to more closely align the country's majority religion and its politics.

The BJP received $730 million in five years from leading companies and wealthy businesspeople through electoral bonds, a contentious political donation tool since ruled illegal by India's top court, making it by far the biggest single beneficiary.

Conglomerate owners support Modi's government because it caters to the needs of India's "existing oligarchic business elite", Deepanshu Mohan of OP Jindal Global University told AFP.

Lower corporate taxes, less red tape and cutting "municipal regulatory corruption" have also helped Modi win corporate titans' affection, he said.

N. Chandrasekaran, the chairman of Tata Sons, a sprawling Indian conglomerate with interests ranging from cars and software to salt and tea, cast his ballot at a polling station in an upper-class Mumbai neighbourhood.

"It's a great privilege to have the opportunity to vote," he told reporters.

Asia's richest man, Reliance Industries chairman Mukesh Ambani, voted at the same polling station, posing to show reporters his ink-stained finger.

Anand Mahindra, chairman of the eponymous automaker, told news agency PTI after voting: "If you look at the world around us, there is so much uncertainty, there is such instability, there's terror, there's war.

"And we are in the middle of a stable democracy where we get a chance to vote peacefully, to decide what kind of government we want. It's a blessing."

- Bollywood stars -

Modi's popularity is founded on his image as a champion of Hinduism, rather than an economy still characterised by widespread unemployment and income inequality.

This year he presided over the inauguration of a grand temple to the deity Ram, built on the grounds of a centuries-old mosque in Ayodhya razed by Hindu zealots in 1992.

Construction of the temple fulfilled a longstanding demand of Hindu activists and was widely celebrated across the country with back-to-back television coverage and street parties.

The ceremony was attended by hundreds of eminent Indians including Ambani, whose family donated $300,000 to the temple's trust, along with cricket hero and Mumbai native Sachin Tendulkar, and Bollywood film star Amitabh Bachchan.

Numerous actors backed Modi's administration since swept to office a decade ago.

Soap actor turned government minister Smriti Irani beat India's most prominent opposition leader Rahul Gandhi to win her seat at the last election in 2019.

Filmmakers have produced several provocative and ideologically charged films to match the ruling party's sectarian messaging, which critics say deliberately maligns India's 200-million-plus Muslim minority.

But some in Mumbai, like delivery driver Sunil Kirti voted for the opposition Congress party.

"In the past year I am earning less, but prices of basic essentials... food and vegetables have gone up," said Kirti, 29. "Who is to blame for that?"

- Heatwave returns -

India votes in seven phases over six weeks to ease the immense logistical burden of staging an election in the world's most populous country, with more than 968 million people on the roll.

Monday's polling took place as parts of India endured their second heatwave in three weeks, with temperatures soaring to 44 degrees Celsius (111 degrees Fahrenheit).

Turnout reached just 57.5 percent according to the election commission, its lowest so far.

"Voters came out in large numbers braving hot weather in many parts of the states that went for polls today," it said, but the numbers were down almost 12 percent on the previous phase on Friday.

Fewer than half of registered electors -- 48.9 percent -- went to the polling stations in Maharastra, the state which has Mumbai as its capital.

Constituencies in cities including Mumbai, Thane and Nashik in Maharashtra and Lucknow, the capital of Uttar Pradesh, "continued the trend of urban apathy" from the last election in 2019, the commission said.

Scientific research shows climate change is causing heatwaves to become longer, more frequent and more intense, with Asia warming faster than the global average.

Turnout was already down from the previous vote, with analysts blaming widespread expectations of a Modi victory as well as the heat.

asv-ash/slb/dw


Bollywood and billionaires: India’s rich and famous cast their vote in the world’s largest election

Rhea Mogul, CNN
Tue, May 21, 2024 

Celebrities, industrialists and politicians cast their vote in the world’s biggest democracy as polls opened in India’s financial capital during a weekslong nationwide election, in which Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seeking another five-year term.

Voting took place in six constituencies across Mumbai in the western state of Maharashtra, and 43 others nationwide, on Monday as millions flocked to polling booths to determine who will lead the world’s most populous country.

Across India’s richest city and the birthplace of the Bollywood movie industry, a bevy of celebrities were photographed casting their ballot, showing off purple-streaked index fingers – a sign that determines one has voted in an Indian election.

Bollywood actor Shah Rukh Khan, along with his family, leaves a polling booth after casting his ballot in Mumbai on May 20, 2024. - Sujit Jaiswal/AFP/Getty Images

The “King of Bollywood” Shah Rukh Khan was seen leaving a Mumbai polling booth with his family – wife Gauri, daughter Suhana, and sons Aryan and Abram. Elsewhere, one of India’s most famous actors, Amitabh Bachchan, also cast his vote at a polling booth in the suburb of Andheri.

“As responsible Indian citizens we must exercise our right to vote this Monday in Maharashtra,” Khan wrote on X over the weekend. “Let’s carry out our duty as Indians and vote keeping our country’s best interests in mind. Go forth Promote, our right to Vote.”

Film stars Deepika Padukone and Ranveer Singh, who are expecting their first child this year, were also pictured, as well as billionaire industrialist Mukesh Ambani with his wife, Nita and son Akash.

Bollywood actors Ranveer Singh and Deepika Padukone arrive to cast their ballots at a polling station in Mumbai on May 20, 2024. - Sujit Jaiswal/AFP/Getty Images

After casting his vote on Monday, actor Akshay Kumar said he wanted to see India become “developed and strong.”

Showing his ink-stained finger to local reporters, he added: “I voted… India should vote for what they deem is right…I think voter turnout will be good.”

Bollywood actress Aishwarya Rai Bachchan shows her inked finger after casting her ballot at a polling station in Mumbai on May 20, 2024. - Stringer/AFP/Getty Images

Bollywood actor Amitabh Bachchan at a polling station in Mumbai on May 20, 2024. - Stringer/AFP/Getty Images

But in keeping with previous elections, voter turnout in Mahrashtra on Monday remained low at 54% — with 47-55% across Mumbai’s six constituencies — according to data from the Election Commission. By comparison, in the northeastern state of West Bengal, some 73% of eligible voters cast their ballot, data showed.

The key election players in the city are Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the main opposition Indian National Congress, and two rival factions of Shiv Sena — a local ultranationalist grouping that has long played a key role in Mumbai’s politics.

Residents queue to cast their vote on May 20, 2024 in Mumbai, India. - Satish Bate/Hindustan Times/Getty Images

Mumbai, a city of more than 12 million, is often likened to New York and referred to as the “city of dreams,” where millions of migrants from across the country arrive to make their fortune and find purpose.

It’s a city of extreme wealth and extreme poverty, where skyscrapers tower over slum dwellings and poor children beg for money at the windows of chauffeur-driven cars carrying students to school.

And while the rich and famous were seen casting their vote, many migrant workers in the city will be left out of the election.

Voters wait to cast their vote in Chandivali, Mumbai, on May 20, 2024. - Satish Bate/Hindustan Times/Getty Images

Under India’s election rules, eligible voters can only cast ballots in their constituencies – meaning those working outside of their state have to return home to vote. For many out-of-state workers, especially underprivileged daily-wage workers in the unorganized sector, that’s nearly impossible, due to the cost associated with traveling home.

Many voters in Mumbai are concerned with growing inflation and are seeking better education and employment opportunities.

“The change I want to see is, things should become less costly,” 34-year-old grocer Sachin Chaudhary, previously told CNN, adding he also wants to see better opportunities in the employment sector.

CNN’s Jessie Yeung contributed reporting.

Analysis-As Modi faces resistance, fatigue in India election, parent group steps in

India's PM Modi holds an election campaign rally in New Delhi


By Rupam Jain and Rajendra Jadhav

Sun, May 19, 2024

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - As Prime Minister Narendra Modi faces voter fatigue and some resistance from a resurgent opposition in India's mammoth general election, foot soldiers of his party's Hindu nationalist parent have stepped in to help regain momentum, insiders said.

With less than two weeks left of a six-week voting schedule, voter turnout has been lower than previous elections, raising concern within the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) that some of its core supporters were staying away.

Modi's party, chasing a rare third term in office, has also faced stronger opposition than anticipated in a handful of states, leading election experts and Indian financial markets to adjust forecasts of a landslide win.

With no exit polls allowed until all the voting is completed on June 1, it's difficult to judge how well or poorly candidates are faring. But most analysts say Modi should be able to retain a majority in the 543-seat parliament when votes are counted on June 4.

"The trend is suggesting that Modi will be back in power with a reduced majority," said Rasheed Kidwai, a visiting fellow at the Observer Research Foundation think tank.

But he added: "Any shortfall of a clear mandate of 300 seats for BJP will reflect poorly on Modi."

At the start of the campaign, Modi was projected to win up to three-fourths of the seats, with the opposition led by Rahul Gandhi, the scion of the Gandhi-Nehru dynasty, a distant second.

After the first two phases of voting, though, analysts and political workers said the chances of the BJP getting above 362 seats, the two-thirds majority required to bring changes in the constitution, had been affected.

One reason the opposition is clawing back ground is the fading of the euphoria in India's Hindu majority when Modi inaugurated a temple in January on a site disputed with the country's minority Muslims.

Bread and butter issues seem to be replacing religious fervour in many parts of the country.

Jobless youth in northern Haryana state have held street protests against the BJP during the campaign and in western Maharashtra, farmers incensed over a ban on onion exports canvassed support for an opposition candidate.

In the big, battleground state of Bihar, a BJP lawmaker has defected to the opposition Congress party saying the poor have been left behind in India's world-beating economic growth.

Some of the unhappiness is resulting in a swing to the opposition or in apathy, analysts have said.

"The decline in voting has been a cause of concern in recent weeks and we have been working to bring a shift in the numbers," said Rajiv Tuli, an official at the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the Hindu group that is the ideological parent of the BJP.

"Meetings, outreach campaigns and even a renewed push to remind voters about ensuring a full-majority government comes to power did become critical after the first phase of voting."

GO OUT AND VOTE

RSS volunteers are hosting neighbourhood meetings in their homes to persuade people to go out and vote, said Ritesh Agarwal, the senior publicity official for the group in the New Delhi region.

Three national spokespersons of the BJP said they were aware that the RSS was working to help improve voter turnout but declined comment on how this would affect the BJP.

"I don't think there is any sense that BJP is in a weak position," said spokesperson Shehzad Poonawalla, adding that a low turnout affected all parties and that voter numbers had increased after the first two phases.

In Haryana, some youngsters have criticised a government decision to cut back on recruitment to the military and switch to temporary commissions to control a bloated defence budget. Jobs are so scarce, residents say, that people are lining up for employment in Israel which has turned to India to plug a labour shortage following the war in Gaza.

"We see no future for ourselves," said 28-year old Kuldeep Singh in the northern state's Jahangirpur village, where black ink was smeared on walls displaying Modi's campaign slogans.

Ganesh Wadhwan, a farmer in Maharashtra's Dindori constituency said he sought funds for opposition candidate Bhaskar Bhagare ahead of the vote there on Monday to punish the Modi government for blocking onion exports.

"We believed Modi would double our income as promised. But instead, our incomes have halved," said Wadhwan.

Some analysts say there is also considerable disapproval of the government in Bihar, one of India's poorest states which has fallen behind as incomes climb in other parts of the country.

Together, Maharashtra, Bihar and Haryana account for nearly 100 seats in parliament, but it was not clear how far the discontent had spread there or in other parts of the country.

The opposition has said its campaign rallies are drawing good crowds and Gandhi, the alliance leader, is predicting it will unseat the BJP and form the government.

India's stock markets fell sharply last Monday on the possibility of political instability before recovering later in the week.

The underground betting market is currently predicting that the BJP will win fewer than 300 seats but well clear of the 272 required for a majority, according to a trader who runs one of the betting pools.

He declined to be identified as these pools are illegal.

Yashwant Deshmukh, founder of polling agency CVoter Foundation, said all the evidence pointed to Modi winning.

"Jobs and unemployment are huge issues but not really an electoral issue. When we asked who will give a solution to these problems - jobs, inflation, unemployment and the economic situation - Modi’s score was 2:1 over Rahul Gandhi."

(Reporting by Manoj Kumar in ROHTAK, Rupam Jain, Rajendra Jadhav, Shivangi Acharya and Nimesh Vora; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan)

Mumbai Votes in India’s Election as Opposition Gets Boost

Saikat Das and Swati Gupta
Mon, May 20, 2024 







(Bloomberg) -- Voters in India’s financial capital Mumbai — home to billionaires, film stars and millions of slum dwellers — went to the polls on Monday, with the opposition alliance making a renewed push to break Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s hold on power.

Voting is taking place in six constituencies in Mumbai as well as 43 others across the country in phase five of India’s seven-phase elections. Nationwide polls began on April 19 and will run until June 1, with almost 1 billion eligible voters choosing candidates for the 543 seats in the lower house of parliament, the Lok Sabha. Results are expected on June 4.

Financial markets in India were closed Monday due to a public holiday in Mumbai to allow residents to vote.

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party was predicting a big majority win in India’s election, but a slight drop in voter turnout and media reports of a tight contest in some areas have raised questions about the party’s support. The BJP is facing an opposition alliance of more than 20 parties, which has been given a renewed boost recently following the release on bail of popular leader Arvind Kejriwal from jail.

He’s since criss-crossed the country to drum up support for the opposition alliance and criticize Modi’s government. Speaking to supporters in Delhi on Sunday, Kejriwal urged them to vote for the opposition, saying there was “anger everywhere” in the country because of inflation and high youth unemployment.

In Mumbai, voters are concerned about crumbling infrastructure and poor public transport that clogs up the city’s roads and sometimes results in tragic accidents, like the collapse last week of a massive billboard in a freak storm, killing 16 people. Voters in the city are also notoriously apathetic, with turnout reaching only 54% in the last election in 2019.

At 5 p.m. on Monday, average voter turnout had reached almost 56.7% for the fifth phase of polls in the country, according to the Election Commission of India.

“Mumbai is a maximum city where business, infrastructure and livelihood related issues play a bigger role as compared to any other social topics,” said Pradeep Gupta, a psephologist and the founder of Axis My India. “Overall, this year I expect the voting turnout to be better than 2019 as voters are more politically conscious than ever.”

The BJP along with regional allies have nominated prominent candidates in two constituencies in the city: Trade Minister Piyush Goyal and Ujjwal Nikam, the prosecutor in the trial against the 2008 Mumbai attackers.

A former bank director, Goyal is running for office for the first time and has spent the past few weeks holding roadshows and rallies in the congested Mumbai North constituency. He was previously appointed to the upper house of parliament three times.

Elections in Maharashtra state, where Mumbai is located, have been fairly predictable until 2019 with the regional Shiv Sena party dominating in alliance with the BJP. The state is now one of the biggest wild cards in 2024 with the Shiv Sena splitting and another regional party also dividing, resulting in family members fighting each other and party veterans resigning posts or campaigning for age-old rivals.

In Uttar Pradesh state, Rahul Gandhi of the main opposition Indian National Congress will contest elections from the Raebareli constituency, a seat held by his mother Sonia for four terms. Voting will also take place in Amethi constituency in Uttar Pradesh, a seat that Rahul Gandhi previously won in three elections before losing in 2019 to Smriti Irani, a cabinet minister.

“My family and I have a 100-year-old relationship with the people here,” Gandhi told supporters in Raebareli on May 17, flanked by his mother and sister Priyanka. “My home is in the hearts of the people of Raebareli and in the hearts of all Indians.”

With just 12 days of campaigning left for the remaining two phases of elections, political parties are organizing three to four rallies a day for their senior leaders. Voting in phase six of the election takes place on May 25, when voters in the capital Delhi go to the polls.

Voting also takes places in these key constituencies on Monday:

In Baramulla in Jammu & Kashmir, the former chief minister Omar Abdullah is contesting against two other regional parties. The BJP has chosen not to contest any of the three seats in the Muslim-majority region of Kashmir


In Amethi in Uttar Pradesh, the Congress party is fielding loyalist Kishori Lal Sharma to wrest control back from the BJP


Defense Minister Rajnath Singh will be contesting from Lucknow in Uttar Pradesh. He has been elected thrice to the lower house and has served three terms in the upper house of parliament

(Updates with average voter turnout in seventh paragraph.)

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