A second Trump term could actually make inflation worse
Opinion
Trump's plans for a second term: Raise prices on everything
The former president keeps proposing ideas that would make inflation worse.
By Ryan Teague Beckwith,
Donald Trump has long cited his economics degree from the prestigious Wharton School as evidence of his “super genius stuff” skills in business.
But if he were a student there right now, he’d get a failing grade for his proposals’ effects on rising prices.
With polls showing that inflation remains a top concern among voters, the presumptive Republican nominee has somehow put together a campaign platform featuring multiple proposals that would raise prices on everything from groceries to new cars, both directly and indirectly.
Some of the ideas would lead to higher prices as a side effect of tackling some other issue. Some might make sense if economic conditions were different. And some come from the oddball theories of his motley assortment of advisers.
Lowering interest rates in the current environment would supercharge spending, spurring demand and, again, leading to higher prices for consumers.
But added together, they amount to a massive own goal on one of the most important policy issues in the 2024 presidential election, with Trump undercutting one of his strongest arguments against President Joe Biden’s performance.
There’s a lot to unpack here, but stick with us and we’ll walk through it step by step.
Lesson No. 1: Tariffs lead to higher prices
In recent decades, tariffs fell out of favor as the U.S. embraced free trade, allowing other countries to sell their goods cheaply here in return for American companies selling their wares overseas.
Trump, who brought tariffs back into the mainstream, now wants to impose a 10% “universal tariff” on all imports, plus a 60% tariff on Chinese goods and a 100% tariff on foreign cars.
But, as I’ve explained before, foreign companies respond to tariffs by raising the prices on their products sold in the U.S. The result? American consumers would pay more.
Lesson No. 2: Low interest rates lead to higher prices
When inflation is high, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, making loans more expensive. That helps cool the economy, reducing the demand that is driving prices higher.
Some Trump allies are reportedly drawing up plans to put the traditionally independent Federal Reserve more under the president’s control. And Trump has long made clear that he would actually prefer lower interest rates.
But lowering interest rates in the current environment would supercharge spending, spurring demand and, again, leading to higher prices for consumers.
Lesson No. 3: Tax cuts can lead to higher prices
When taxes go down, people have more money in their pocket, and they’re likely to spend more of it. That’s not a bad thing; governments facing a recession will often cut taxes to boost spending and get things back on track.
In his campaign, Trump has proposed making permanent the individual and estate tax cuts from his 2017 bill that are set to expire and keeping the corporate income tax rate at 21%.
There are all kinds of arguments on both sides about the wisdom of these proposals (and Biden wants to cut some taxes, too) but suffice to say, they would probably end up boosting spending and increasing demand. Coming on top of Trump’s other inflationary proposals, that would likely lead to higher prices as well.
MAGA sales tax: The Trump plan to make everything more expensive
06:59
Trump promises to extend tax cuts for billionaires
In conclusion, prices would rise under Trump
On their own, these proposals can be defended by reasonable people. Economics is complex, and there are always trade-offs. But each of them just happens to have a downside of raising prices at a time when high inflation is a major concern for voters. As the terminally online might put it: Tariffs? In this economy?
These proposals also wouldn’t happen in isolation. If Trump succeeds with all of these plans, American consumers will pay more for imported goods, while the economy overheats due to increased spending, right as domestic manufacturers find themselves paying more in labor costs due to worker shortages. Then there’s the risk of trade wars and global economic turmoil caused by massive shifts in U.S. policy. All of this points to higher and higher prices.
The economic misery that would bring would end up being studied for years to come in textbooks bought by students at Trump’s alma mater of Wharton.
“Super genius stuff” indeed.
The former president keeps proposing ideas that would make inflation worse.
By Ryan Teague Beckwith,
Newsletter Editor
MSNBC
May 9, 2024
May 9, 2024
Donald Trump has long cited his economics degree from the prestigious Wharton School as evidence of his “super genius stuff” skills in business.
But if he were a student there right now, he’d get a failing grade for his proposals’ effects on rising prices.
With polls showing that inflation remains a top concern among voters, the presumptive Republican nominee has somehow put together a campaign platform featuring multiple proposals that would raise prices on everything from groceries to new cars, both directly and indirectly.
Some of the ideas would lead to higher prices as a side effect of tackling some other issue. Some might make sense if economic conditions were different. And some come from the oddball theories of his motley assortment of advisers.
Lowering interest rates in the current environment would supercharge spending, spurring demand and, again, leading to higher prices for consumers.
But added together, they amount to a massive own goal on one of the most important policy issues in the 2024 presidential election, with Trump undercutting one of his strongest arguments against President Joe Biden’s performance.
There’s a lot to unpack here, but stick with us and we’ll walk through it step by step.
Lesson No. 1: Tariffs lead to higher prices
In recent decades, tariffs fell out of favor as the U.S. embraced free trade, allowing other countries to sell their goods cheaply here in return for American companies selling their wares overseas.
Trump, who brought tariffs back into the mainstream, now wants to impose a 10% “universal tariff” on all imports, plus a 60% tariff on Chinese goods and a 100% tariff on foreign cars.
But, as I’ve explained before, foreign companies respond to tariffs by raising the prices on their products sold in the U.S. The result? American consumers would pay more.
Lesson No. 2: Low interest rates lead to higher prices
When inflation is high, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, making loans more expensive. That helps cool the economy, reducing the demand that is driving prices higher.
Some Trump allies are reportedly drawing up plans to put the traditionally independent Federal Reserve more under the president’s control. And Trump has long made clear that he would actually prefer lower interest rates.
But lowering interest rates in the current environment would supercharge spending, spurring demand and, again, leading to higher prices for consumers.
Lesson No. 3: Tax cuts can lead to higher prices
When taxes go down, people have more money in their pocket, and they’re likely to spend more of it. That’s not a bad thing; governments facing a recession will often cut taxes to boost spending and get things back on track.
In his campaign, Trump has proposed making permanent the individual and estate tax cuts from his 2017 bill that are set to expire and keeping the corporate income tax rate at 21%.
There are all kinds of arguments on both sides about the wisdom of these proposals (and Biden wants to cut some taxes, too) but suffice to say, they would probably end up boosting spending and increasing demand. Coming on top of Trump’s other inflationary proposals, that would likely lead to higher prices as well.
MAGA sales tax: The Trump plan to make everything more expensive
06:59
Trump promises to extend tax cuts for billionaires
Lesson No. 4: Fewer workers leads to higher prices
When you buy something at the store, a big chunk of the price is determined by how much the company had to pay its workers. When the labor pool is tight, as it is right now, salaries go up, and so do prices. Again, not always a bad thing.
But Trump’s hard-line immigration plans would further shrink the labor force. He’s proposed tightening worker visas, changing immigration laws, cutting the number of refugees and rolling back Temporary Protected Status designations. He has also proposed large-scale raids and deportations of potentially millions of undocumented immigrants.
Depending on the scale and success of these various proposals, the U.S. labor force could be reduced dramatically as a result, again, leading to higher prices.
Lesson No. 5: A weak dollar leads to higher prices
Everyone loves the dollar. When foreign investors get nervous, they exchange their own currency for the greenback. When foreign leaders want to keep their currency stable, they tie its value to the dollar. All of this has led to what is called the “strong dollar.”
A top Trump adviser has called for undoing that, seeking to devalue the dollar in an effort to boost U.S. exports.
The resulting “weak dollar” would have complicated effects on the global economy, but a major side effect here in the U.S. would be to make imports even more expensive. Again: higher prices.
When you buy something at the store, a big chunk of the price is determined by how much the company had to pay its workers. When the labor pool is tight, as it is right now, salaries go up, and so do prices. Again, not always a bad thing.
But Trump’s hard-line immigration plans would further shrink the labor force. He’s proposed tightening worker visas, changing immigration laws, cutting the number of refugees and rolling back Temporary Protected Status designations. He has also proposed large-scale raids and deportations of potentially millions of undocumented immigrants.
Depending on the scale and success of these various proposals, the U.S. labor force could be reduced dramatically as a result, again, leading to higher prices.
Lesson No. 5: A weak dollar leads to higher prices
Everyone loves the dollar. When foreign investors get nervous, they exchange their own currency for the greenback. When foreign leaders want to keep their currency stable, they tie its value to the dollar. All of this has led to what is called the “strong dollar.”
A top Trump adviser has called for undoing that, seeking to devalue the dollar in an effort to boost U.S. exports.
The resulting “weak dollar” would have complicated effects on the global economy, but a major side effect here in the U.S. would be to make imports even more expensive. Again: higher prices.
In conclusion, prices would rise under Trump
On their own, these proposals can be defended by reasonable people. Economics is complex, and there are always trade-offs. But each of them just happens to have a downside of raising prices at a time when high inflation is a major concern for voters. As the terminally online might put it: Tariffs? In this economy?
These proposals also wouldn’t happen in isolation. If Trump succeeds with all of these plans, American consumers will pay more for imported goods, while the economy overheats due to increased spending, right as domestic manufacturers find themselves paying more in labor costs due to worker shortages. Then there’s the risk of trade wars and global economic turmoil caused by massive shifts in U.S. policy. All of this points to higher and higher prices.
The economic misery that would bring would end up being studied for years to come in textbooks bought by students at Trump’s alma mater of Wharton.
“Super genius stuff” indeed.
Ryan Teague Beckwith
Ryan Teague Beckwith is a newsletter editor for MSNBC. He has previously worked for such outlets as TIME magazine, Bloomberg News and CQ Roll Call. He teaches journalism at Georgetown University's School of Continuing Studies.
Ryan Teague Beckwith is a newsletter editor for MSNBC. He has previously worked for such outlets as TIME magazine, Bloomberg News and CQ Roll Call. He teaches journalism at Georgetown University's School of Continuing Studies.
Vance Cariaga
Sun, Jun 16, 2024,
Millennials represent a key voting bloc in the 2024 presidential election — and one with a lot at stake. The oldest millennials are heading into their mid-40s, while the youngest are approaching their 30s. Regardless of whether President Joe Biden or ex-President Donald Trump wins, their policies will have a major impact on millennials as they enter an important life stage in terms of earning power, taxes, home ownership and family expenses.
Trending Now: 5 Changes That Could Be Coming for the Middle Class If Biden Is Reelected in 2024
Although younger voters tend to favor Democrats, many millennials are disenchanted with both Biden and Trump. The age gap between the candidates and millennials has something to do with that, but so does a disconnect between what the candidates propose and what millennials value culturally, politically and financially.
Should Trump win a second term in November, some of his policies could lead to a number of financial headaches for millennials.
Here’s a look at some of them.
An End to Student Loan Relief
The Biden administration has already canceled more than $150 billion in student debt for 4.3 million borrowers, Business Insider reported — and that’s without Biden’s ambitious loan forgiveness plan making it into law. The administration intends to pursue other student loan forgiveness options in the future if Biden wins another term. But if Trump should win, those efforts will likely come to a screeching halt, meaning millennials with heavy student debt will have few, if any, options for relief.
Learn More: What Is the Median Household Income for the Upper Middle Class in 2024?
One cornerstone of the Trump campaign is his promise to impose tariffs on trillions of dollars’ worth of imports. Such a move is designed to strengthen U.S.-based industries and jobs by discouraging foreign imports. But it could also lead to higher prices on products that are much cheaper to source overseas. Continued high prices would be especially damaging to millennials, who now have mortgages to pay and families to support.
….And So Could Other Trump Policies
As The Hill reported, former International Monetary Fund chief economist Maurice Obstfeld argued that several policy proposals from Trump’s advisors would “revive 1970s-style inflation.” One proposal would give the president more influence over Federal Reserve interest-rate decisions and rulemaking, while the other would weaken the U.S. dollar to reduce the U.S. trade deficit. Again, continued high inflation comes at a bad time for millennials with so many other bills to pay.
Downsized Government
Trump has made no secret of his dislike of the federal government and has promised to abolish whole agencies and fire tens of thousands of government workers. The most immediate impact is that these former government workers — including millennials — would suddenly find themselves unemployed. An indirect result would be more competition for private-sector jobs.
No More Obamacare
Trump has said he hopes to “repeal and replace” the Affordable Care Act, a k a Obamacare, though he has not publicly unveiled an alternate affordable healthcare plan, Business Insider reported. Millions of millennials currently enrolled in Obamacare would have to find alternative healthcare plans, and many of those will cost more money.
Deregulation Could Empower Credit Card Companies To Make Revolving Debt More Expensive
The inflation that defined much of the Biden economy forced America to take on more credit card debt to keep up with rising prices. To make matters worse, just as they started charging more frequently, high interest rates made the debt more expensive.
The quarterly New York Fed report from the final quarter of last year indicated widespread financial distress as credit card debt grew by $50 billion to hit a record $1.13 trillion. But what impact could a second Trump term have?
“Trump’s administration previously rolled back certain provisions of the Dodd-Frank Act, which may have impacted consumer protections,” Jacobs said in reference to President Obama’s landmark 2010 banking bill that imposed strict regulations on lenders in the wake of the Great Recession. “A second term might continue this trend, potentially leading to fewer regulations for credit card companies. This could result in higher interest rates and fees for consumers, although supporters argue it could also increase credit availability.”
Reduced Red Tape Could Make Mortgages Easier To Obtain but Riskier To Hold
According to the Cato Institute, one of Dodd-Frank’s “unintended consequences” for housing was that the law “imposed more overhead costs on each specific loan” and took away the incentive for banks to process smaller loans for lower-income borrowers.
Like many Republicans, Trump was on record as despising Dodd-Frank and worked to undermine it early in his presidency.
“Under Trump, the Housing and Urban Development (HUD) department focused on reducing regulations to stimulate housing markets,” said Jacobs.
More of the same in 2024 could make it easier for you to take on housing debt, which is good if you’re struggling to get a loan you can responsibly assume but bad if it enables dangerous borrowing.
“A continued emphasis on deregulation could make obtaining mortgages easier for some, but it might also increase the risk of higher interest rates and fewer consumer protections, potentially impacting those with less favorable credit,” said Jacobs.
Student Borrowers Should Expect Little Relief From an Adversarial Administration
According to the Center for Economic and Policy Research, the “student debt crisis would likely worsen under a second Trump administration.”
The organization reports that for the first time, America’s $1.6 trillion college debt actually declined over the last year thanks to President Biden’s policies, which forgave a significant amount of student debt and made it easier for borrowers to repay. The president achieved these measures despite the Supreme Court’s rejection of his 2021 plan to cancel more than $400 billion in federal student aid.
Those policies are almost certain to stop if Trump is re-elected, as the former president has vowed to roll back Biden’s initiatives and quash any attempt to let student borrowers off the hook for loans they signed for and agreed to repay.
“Changes to federal student loan forgiveness programs could affect those relying on these benefits,” said Jacobs.
Deregulation Will Spur the Most Change, and the Results Will Be a Mixed Bag
Interest rates have the most immediate impact on borrowers. When they’re low, loans are cheap and people can afford to borrow more. When they’re high, borrowers have to pinch their budgets and settle for less home, less car and less college to make room for hefty finance charges — but presidents don’t control interest rates.
Therefore, any impact Trump has on the system will come mostly from his ability to loosen regulations.
“Overall, Trump’s focus on deregulation could lead to a mixed impact on personal debt,” said Jacobs. “While some consumers might benefit from easier access to credit and loans, others might face higher costs and reduced protections. It’s essential for individuals to stay informed about policy changes and manage their personal finances accordingly.”
An End to Student Loan Relief
The Biden administration has already canceled more than $150 billion in student debt for 4.3 million borrowers, Business Insider reported — and that’s without Biden’s ambitious loan forgiveness plan making it into law. The administration intends to pursue other student loan forgiveness options in the future if Biden wins another term. But if Trump should win, those efforts will likely come to a screeching halt, meaning millennials with heavy student debt will have few, if any, options for relief.
Learn More: What Is the Median Household Income for the Upper Middle Class in 2024?
Support for Tariffs Could Keep Inflation High…
One cornerstone of the Trump campaign is his promise to impose tariffs on trillions of dollars’ worth of imports. Such a move is designed to strengthen U.S.-based industries and jobs by discouraging foreign imports. But it could also lead to higher prices on products that are much cheaper to source overseas. Continued high prices would be especially damaging to millennials, who now have mortgages to pay and families to support.
….And So Could Other Trump Policies
As The Hill reported, former International Monetary Fund chief economist Maurice Obstfeld argued that several policy proposals from Trump’s advisors would “revive 1970s-style inflation.” One proposal would give the president more influence over Federal Reserve interest-rate decisions and rulemaking, while the other would weaken the U.S. dollar to reduce the U.S. trade deficit. Again, continued high inflation comes at a bad time for millennials with so many other bills to pay.
Downsized Government
Trump has made no secret of his dislike of the federal government and has promised to abolish whole agencies and fire tens of thousands of government workers. The most immediate impact is that these former government workers — including millennials — would suddenly find themselves unemployed. An indirect result would be more competition for private-sector jobs.
No More Obamacare
Trump has said he hopes to “repeal and replace” the Affordable Care Act, a k a Obamacare, though he has not publicly unveiled an alternate affordable healthcare plan, Business Insider reported. Millions of millennials currently enrolled in Obamacare would have to find alternative healthcare plans, and many of those will cost more money.
What a Second Trump Presidency Could Mean for Your Debt
Andrew Lisa
Mon, May 27, 2024
Between home loans, car loans, student loans, credit card bills and the rest, America owes an arm and a leg. According to the New York Fed, household debt increased by $184 billion in the first quarter of 2024, reaching a record $17.69 trillion.
It’s not hard to understand why.
The defining economic storylines of the Biden economy have been high inflation and the interest rate hikes the Fed has used to tamp it down. However, since the president directly controls neither prices nor rates, will anything change if Donald Trump ousts President Biden in November and wins another four years in the White House?
“A second Trump term could have significant implications for personal debt, based on his past policies and current campaign promises,” said Ryan Jacobs, founder and managing partner of Jacobs Investment Management.
Here’s a look at what a second Trump presidency could mean for your debt.
Andrew Lisa
Mon, May 27, 2024
Between home loans, car loans, student loans, credit card bills and the rest, America owes an arm and a leg. According to the New York Fed, household debt increased by $184 billion in the first quarter of 2024, reaching a record $17.69 trillion.
It’s not hard to understand why.
The defining economic storylines of the Biden economy have been high inflation and the interest rate hikes the Fed has used to tamp it down. However, since the president directly controls neither prices nor rates, will anything change if Donald Trump ousts President Biden in November and wins another four years in the White House?
“A second Trump term could have significant implications for personal debt, based on his past policies and current campaign promises,” said Ryan Jacobs, founder and managing partner of Jacobs Investment Management.
Here’s a look at what a second Trump presidency could mean for your debt.
Deregulation Could Empower Credit Card Companies To Make Revolving Debt More Expensive
The inflation that defined much of the Biden economy forced America to take on more credit card debt to keep up with rising prices. To make matters worse, just as they started charging more frequently, high interest rates made the debt more expensive.
The quarterly New York Fed report from the final quarter of last year indicated widespread financial distress as credit card debt grew by $50 billion to hit a record $1.13 trillion. But what impact could a second Trump term have?
“Trump’s administration previously rolled back certain provisions of the Dodd-Frank Act, which may have impacted consumer protections,” Jacobs said in reference to President Obama’s landmark 2010 banking bill that imposed strict regulations on lenders in the wake of the Great Recession. “A second term might continue this trend, potentially leading to fewer regulations for credit card companies. This could result in higher interest rates and fees for consumers, although supporters argue it could also increase credit availability.”
Reduced Red Tape Could Make Mortgages Easier To Obtain but Riskier To Hold
According to the Cato Institute, one of Dodd-Frank’s “unintended consequences” for housing was that the law “imposed more overhead costs on each specific loan” and took away the incentive for banks to process smaller loans for lower-income borrowers.
Like many Republicans, Trump was on record as despising Dodd-Frank and worked to undermine it early in his presidency.
“Under Trump, the Housing and Urban Development (HUD) department focused on reducing regulations to stimulate housing markets,” said Jacobs.
More of the same in 2024 could make it easier for you to take on housing debt, which is good if you’re struggling to get a loan you can responsibly assume but bad if it enables dangerous borrowing.
“A continued emphasis on deregulation could make obtaining mortgages easier for some, but it might also increase the risk of higher interest rates and fewer consumer protections, potentially impacting those with less favorable credit,” said Jacobs.
Student Borrowers Should Expect Little Relief From an Adversarial Administration
According to the Center for Economic and Policy Research, the “student debt crisis would likely worsen under a second Trump administration.”
The organization reports that for the first time, America’s $1.6 trillion college debt actually declined over the last year thanks to President Biden’s policies, which forgave a significant amount of student debt and made it easier for borrowers to repay. The president achieved these measures despite the Supreme Court’s rejection of his 2021 plan to cancel more than $400 billion in federal student aid.
Those policies are almost certain to stop if Trump is re-elected, as the former president has vowed to roll back Biden’s initiatives and quash any attempt to let student borrowers off the hook for loans they signed for and agreed to repay.
“Changes to federal student loan forgiveness programs could affect those relying on these benefits,” said Jacobs.
Deregulation Will Spur the Most Change, and the Results Will Be a Mixed Bag
Interest rates have the most immediate impact on borrowers. When they’re low, loans are cheap and people can afford to borrow more. When they’re high, borrowers have to pinch their budgets and settle for less home, less car and less college to make room for hefty finance charges — but presidents don’t control interest rates.
Therefore, any impact Trump has on the system will come mostly from his ability to loosen regulations.
“Overall, Trump’s focus on deregulation could lead to a mixed impact on personal debt,” said Jacobs. “While some consumers might benefit from easier access to credit and loans, others might face higher costs and reduced protections. It’s essential for individuals to stay informed about policy changes and manage their personal finances accordingly.”
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