A New Situation For Syria-Turkey Relations – OpEd

 June 30, 2024 By Haluk Direskeneli

In recent years, there has been a noticeable shift in the relationship between Turkey and Syria. While some circles view this change as flexibility and agility in diplomacy, it can also be interpreted as a diplomatic fiasco.

Turkey’s Syria policy has undergone significant changes since the civil war began in 2011. Initially, the relationship with the Syrian regime was amicable, with terms like “My brother Assad” being used. However, as the conflict intensified, Assad was labeled “the butcher Assad,” and Turkey supported opposition groups against his regime. Military interventions were even considered to overthrow Assad.

Today, however, President Erdoğan’s statements about possibly having family dinners with Assad mark a dramatic shift in Turkey’s policy towards Syria. Such statements create serious inconsistencies and uncertainties in diplomacy. The Assad regime, once deemed a cause for war, is now being reconsidered as a dialogue partner. Calling this flexibility might be misleading; true diplomacy requires consistency and predictability to achieve strategic goals.

The situation is further complicated by the appointment of some ambassadors in recent years who lack language skills and diplomatic experience. In diplomatic relations, flexibility means being creative and adaptable to achieve goals, but zigzagging and constantly changing stances can be detrimental to long-term strategic interests.

From personal experience, I can share that in the 1990s, I frequently traveled to Syria for steam boiler sales. These visits were marked by friendly and sincere relations. We sold steam boilers and made good money. Economically, Syria was our market, our backyard. Later, these relations turned hostile. Now, there is a desire to return to friendly relations. This inconsistency is more indicative of diplomatic failure than success.

Turkey’s Syria policy has been inconsistent and uncertain in recent years. Diplomatic flexibility is important for achieving strategic objectives, but it should not be confused with erratic behavior. A more consistent and predictable approach in Turkey’s diplomatic relations would be more beneficial for long-term interests.

Haluk Direskeneli, is a graduate of METU Mechanical Engineering department (1973). He worked in public, private enterprises, USA Turkish JV companies (B&W, CSWI, AEP, Entergy), in fabrication, basic and detail design, marketing, sales and project management of thermal power plants. He is currently working as freelance consultant/ energy analyst with thermal power plants basic/ detail design software expertise for private engineering companies, investors, universities and research institutions. He is a member of Chamber of Turkish Mechanical Engineers Energy Working Group.