Sunday, June 09, 2024

EU ELECTIONS

France’s Macron calls snap election in huge gamble after EU polls debacle


French President Emmanuel Macron said Sunday he was dissolving the National Assembly and calling early legislative elections, setting off a political earthquake after his party suffered a humbling defeat at the hands of the far right in elections for the European Parliament.

Issued on: 10/06/2024 - 
French President Emmanuel Macron gestures from a vehicle as he leaves after voting for the European Parliament election, in Le Touquet-Paris-Plage, France, June 9, 2024. 
© Hannah McKay, Reuters

By:Benjamin DODMAN

Macron’s decision represents a major roll of the dice, with France’s far right polling at its highest-ever level, virtually all other parties in disarray, and the Paris Olympics just around the corner.

The call for snap polls follows a bruising defeat in Sunday’s EU elections, in which the National Rally (RN) of Marine Le Pen won 31.5 percent of the vote, according to Ipsos projections – more than double the support for Macron’s party.

In an address to the nation, the French president said he could not ignore the warning from voters, noting that in total far-right parties in France had won almost 40 percent of the vote. He said elections for the National Assembly would be called for June 30, with a second-round vote on July 7.

“This is an essential time for clarification,” he said. “I have heard your message, your concerns and I will not leave them unanswered ... France needs a clear majority to act in serenity and harmony.”

The announcement was naturally welcomed by Le Pen, whose National Rally will have its best chance yet of seizing power in the upcoming parliamentary vote.

“We are ready to take power if the French people have confidence in us in these forthcoming legislative elections,” said the runner-up in the last two presidential elections. “We are ready to put the country back on its feet.”

Should Le Pen’s anti-immigrant party win a shock majority in the National Assembly, the prime minister’s job would likely go to her protege Jordan Bardella, the telegenic 28-year-old who led the far right to its highest ever score in the EU elections.

In such a scenario, Macron would still direct defence and foreign policy, but he would lose the power to set the domestic agenda – and be remembered as the president who let in the far right.



A humbling for Macron

The outcome of Sunday’s elections means France, a founding member of the EU, will send to Brussels the largest contingent of far-right, Eurosceptic lawmakers among the 27-member bloc.

The National Rally has traditionally done well in European elections, topping the vote in 2014 and in 2019. Its massive 15-point margin of victory on Sunday – up from just 1 percent five years ago – suggests both that Le Pen’s party is at a historic high and that Macron’s camp is in a position of unprecedented weakness.

Read moreEU parliament: Four things to know about the European elections

The result marks a stinging rebuke of France’s Europhile president, who rose to power in 2017 on a promise to ensure French voters would “no longer have a reason to vote for extreme parties”.

Macron had upped the stakes during the campaign, warning that “Europe is mortal” and recently flagging the threat to the continent from a resurgent far right at D-Day commemorations.

His defeat is also a crushing blow to the country’s youthful prime minister, Gabriel Attal, who was appointed less than six months ago to breathe new life into Macron’s second term in office.

“Don’t be like the British who cried after Brexit,” Attal told voters days before the election, suggesting they would regret placing their future in the hands of Eurosceptics. Such dire warnings appear to no longer hurt Le Pen’s party, which abandoned its calls for “Frexit” long ago.

According to an Ipsos survey on Sunday, 68 percent of the RN’s backers said they voted “first and foremost to voice their opposition to the president and his government” – against 39 percent nationwide. And while the broader electorate said they voted predominantly based on EU issues, a massive 73 percent of Bardella’s voters said national concerns took precedence.

The same survey said immigration and the cost-of-living crisis – RN’s main vote winners – were the dominant issues on voters’ minds. Such topics are likely to remain high on the agenda as parties now scramble to prepare for parliamentary polls in just three weeks’ time.

Left divided and beaten

For the country’s fractious left, the European polls provided another sobering reminder of the pitfalls of division, just two years after the NUPES alliance came second in parliamentary polls behind Macron’s ruling coalition – raising hopes of an end to the factionalism and bickering that has hampered left-wing candidates over the years.

Those hopes were dashed in the run-up to the EU polls, leaving five separate lists to fight over a diminishing share of the electorate. At roughly 33 percent, their combined tally is three points shy of the far right’s cumulative score.

Tellingly, the main casualties of division were the Greens, the first party to announce it would stand alone rather than under the banner of the NUPES. That decision backfired spectacularly, with the Greens now projected to win just 5.5 percent of the vote, down from 13 percent in 2019, thus barely passing the 5% threshold to send lawmakers to Brussels.


France Unbowed, the radical left party of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, fared better than five years ago with 8.7 percent of the vote – a higher-than-expected tally that partially vindicates its decision to put the war in Gaza at the heart of its campaign. But its dominance on the left will now be challenged by a resurgent Socialist Party, which is projected to win 14 percent of the vote.

It helped, perhaps, that the moribund Socialists were not led by one of their own, but rather by European lawmaker Raphaël Glucksmann, a former writer and commentator who emerged as the campaign’s third man – and a potential new champion for centre-left voters desperate for an alternative to Mélenchon.

Glucksmann and LFI were at loggerheads throughout the EU elections campaign, meaning chances of reviving the NUPES alliance in time for the June 30 polls look bleak, though left-wing politicians rushed to call for unity following Macron’s announcement.

‘Russian roulette’


Glucksmann said he was “flabbergasted” by Macron’s gamble, accusing the French president of bowing to the National Rally’s calls for a snap vote. He added: “This is an extremely dangerous game with democracy and institutions.”

Conservatives in the opposition were equally scathing, slamming a rash move that leaves them ill-prepared for battle after bruising European elections.

“Dissolving without giving anyone time to organise and without any campaign is playing Russian roulette with the country's destiny,” said Valérie Pécresse, a former presidential candidate for the centre-right Les Républicains, which took just over 7 percent of the vote on Sunday, their lowest-ever score.

There are ominous precedents for Macron.

The last French president to call a snap election was Jacques Chirac in 1997 – and his gamble is remembered as one of the greatest own goals in modern French politics.

Chirac’s rash move only further angered already disgruntled voters, who stripped the conservative president of his majority and forced him into a “cohabitation” with a left-wing government headed by Prime Minister Lionel Jospin.

While voters today are arguably just as disgruntled, France’s political landscape is radically different.

Macron and the far right have effectively blown up the traditional left-right divide, making it more difficult for mainstream parties to alternate in government. And while two-round elections have so far barred the far right from power, voters have become increasingly weary of rallying behind the anti-Le Pen front – making the outcome of the upcoming election highly unpredictable. View the projections and final results of the European elections on our dedicated pag
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Macron's call for snap elections: 'Defiance' among France Unbowed members


Issued on: 09/06/2024 - 

After the initial shock and surprise that followed French President Emmanuel Macron's announcement calling for snap legislative elections, the atmosphere at France Unbowed’s headquarters is one of defiance, FRANCE 24’s Vedika Bahl said. The party’s founder and former presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon said Macron’s move has political as well as cultural, philosophical and moral significance.

01:28 Video by:Vedika BAHL

Jordan Bardella: the 28-year-old 'captain' of France's far-right party

Jordan Bardella, the far-right party leader who inflicted a stinging defeat on President Emmanuel Macron's alliance in European elections, is a self-confident 28-year-old hailed by supporters as a political phenomenon but seen by detractors as lacking substance.



Issued on: 10/06/2024 -
French Jordan Bardella, President of the French far-right National Rally (Rassemblement National - RN) party and head of the RN list for the European elections in Paris, France, June 9, 2024.
 © Sarah Meyssonnier, Reuters

Bardella, raised in a single-parent home, in 2022 officially became the leader of the anti-immigration National Rally (RN) party aged just 27, but boasting the communication skills of a much older politician.

The RN, with Bardella leading its list, scored double the number of votes of Macron's centrist alliance in the European Parliament elections -- prompting Macron to announce on television that he was dissolving parliament and calling snap elections for June 30.

"France has given its verdict and there is no appeal," said Bardella, as he earlier urged Macron to call elections.

"Our compatriots have expressed a desire for change but also a path for the future," he told supporters, adding the result showed the "determination of our country for the European Union to change direction".

"It is wind of hope and it is only the start," he said, describing Macron as a "weakened president".

'Not against Europe'

Bardella took over the RN's leadership from Marine Le Pen, who has been trying to rid the party of the racist and anti-Semitic imprint left by her father and party co-founder, Jean-Marie Le Pen.

Le Pen, who was runner-up in the last two presidential elections, has remained party leader in parliament and is largely expected to run again in 2027.

But her charismatic successor, who has 1.2 million followers on TikTok, is proving to be a major asset in attracting an increasingly younger crowd to vote for the party.

Le Pen has signalled he would be prime minister if she wins the Elysee in 2027. But there have been rumblings within the RN that the young upstart could make an even better candidate than his mentor.

Bardella's carefully curated story has added to smoothing the image of the RN, which Jean-Marie Le Pen once ran from a chateau in a rich town west of the capital.

The RN leader in 2022 shared details about his childhood on the eighth floor of a drab tower block in the crime-ridden Seine-Saint-Denis area northeast of Paris.

During the campaign Bardella was widely seen as having won a televised debate against the little-known head of Macron's party list, Valerie Hayer.

Apparently nervous of Hayer's capacities in the head-to-head format, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal then himself took on Bardella in a debate on May 23 and succeeded in putting the RN chief under considerable pressure over Europe.

Attal sought to paint Bardella as leading a party without substance that had no serious interest in Europe and a vision "of turning in on ourselves and the end of the European Union."

Bardella countered: "I am not against Europe. I am against the way Europe works now."

Eyeing a prominent role in Europe after the elections, Bardella has steered the RN away from the Alternative for Germany (AfD) faction, saying it will no longer sit in the parliament with the faction after a succession of controversies.

'Captain, oh captain'

Bardella's critics accuse him of spending too much time honing his public image, and not enough studying important political issues.

Far-left European lawmaker Manon Aubry has described him as a "ghost parliamentarian" for often failing to show up in the European chamber over the past five years.

And his rise has not been entirely free of controversy.

A French television report alleged in January that he used an anonymous Twitter account to share racist messages when he was a local elected official, claims he has vehemently denied.

One 2017 post from the "RepNat du Gaito" account includes an obscene image mocking Theo Luhaka, a young black man who suffered severe anal injuries from a police baton that year, the France 2 report said.

A French court in January gave three officers suspended jail sentences in the case, a rare one of police brutality to make it to court.

Bardella has not revolutionised the party's belief system, experts point out, but he is still giving his party a youthful vibe.

"Captain, oh captain, we need you to guide us," goes the soundtrack to his campaign post on TikTok.

(AFP)

French PM’s Instagram pitch to young voters features Nintendo, condom

HOW FRENCH!

AFP
June 7, 2024


The government faces an uphill struggle to narrow the gap with the far right - Copyright Satellite image ©2024 Maxar Technologies/AFP -

French premier Gabriel Attal on Friday wielded objects including a condom and a Nintendo Switch in a last ditch bid on social media to win the votes of young people in European elections.

Attal’s centrist government is battling to narrow the far-right National Rally’s (RN) massive lead in opinion polls when France votes in the European parliament elections on Sunday.

On the final legal day of campaigning in France, Attal brandished a condom, a Nintendo Switch games player and a universal charger as proof of how Europe brings benefits to young people.

“These three objects have something in common — Europe,” Attal, at 35 France’s youngest prime minister, said in a video published on his Instagram page.

It was thanks to Europe, he said, that “all the condoms that you buy conform with all the demands in terms of resistance and security.”

He said Europe had forced Nintendo to replace free of charge Switch joysticks that no longer worked and was forcing manufacturers to have one single phone charger from December.

Reaffirming a mantra of President Emmanuel Macron, Attal said Europe was “in danger” and risked having a “blocking minority” of far-right deputies in the next European parliament.

“I count on you to vote on Sunday” for the ruling party’s list led by Valerie Hayer, he said.

Hayer has waged a troubled campaign, with Attal taking on a head-to-head duel with the RN list chief Jordan Bardella and then facing criticism for seeming to barge in on a debate where she was speaking.

A poll by OpinionWay published Friday showed the RN list on 33 percent of the vote and Macron’s centrist coalition on 15 percent only just ahead of the Socialists on 13 percent.

Macron had Thursday also spoken of the risks of a far-right victory, warning the French not to share the regrets of Britons who did not vote against Brexit in the 2016 referendum, only to see their country leave the European Union.

“Come on, go vote on June 9, it is very important. I say this because I always think back to our British friends who did not go to vote on Brexit day. Not going to vote is leaving the future of our continent and our country to others,” he said in a television interview. 


EUROPE VOTES


2024 European elections: Italy's PM Meloni solidifies top spot in EU vote

Issued on: 09/06/2024 - 

Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's arch-conservative Brothers of Italy group won the most votes in this weekend's European parliamentary election, exit polls said, confirming its status as Italy's most popular party. FRANCE 24's Seema Gupta reports from Rome.

03:43 Video by: Seema GUPTA



'The story of the European elections in Hungary has two major takeaways'


"The story of the European elections in Hungary has two major takeaways," said FRANCE 24's correspondent in Budapest, Luke Brown.

"The record-high turnout – 50% of Hungarian voters – that's 13 percentage points higher than in 2019, but also the arrival on the scene of a new serious challenger to the Prime Minister Vikor Orban," he added.

Hungary's Orban says EU election win affirms government's policy course

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said on Sunday his ruling Fidesz party's victory in European Parliament elections affirmed his government's policy course amid an unexpectedly strong showing by an opposition newcomer.

"In a war situation and in a difficult battle, we have scored important victories," Orban, a nationalist, told supporters.



Von der Leyen confident she can win new mandate as EU Commission's president


Ursula von der Leyen said on Sunday she was confident she could win a new mandate as the European Commission's president, after initial projections from the European Union showed her centrist European People's Party (EPP) with the most seats in the EU Parliament.

"Yes, I am confident, but of course I know there is a lot of hard work ahead of me. But I am definitely confident, as far as my running for a second mandate is concerned," she said.

(FRANCE 24 with Reuters)


2024 European elections: PM Wilders' party performance dips in EU vote

Issued on: 09/06/2024 - 

Dutch Prime Minister Geert Wilders' right-wing populist party performed less well than expected in the European elections Sunday, winning only six out of the seven seats that were previously estimated. Meanwhile the Green-left labour alliance fulfilled projections in winning eight seats. FRANCE 24's Fernande Van Tets reports from Amsterdam.

02:49 Video by: Fernande VAN TETS

  


Far right surges in EU elections, dealing blows to leaders of France and Germany

Far-right parties made gains in elections to the European Parliament on Sunday, prompting a bruised French President Emmanuel Macron to call a shock early election and adding uncertainty to Europe’s future political direction.



Issued on: 09/06/2024
Overall across the EU, two mainstream and pro-European groups, the Christian Democrats and the Socialists, remain the dominant forces in the European Parliament. 
© John Thys, AFP


While the centre, liberal and green parties are set to retain the balance of power in the 720-seat parliament, the vote dealt a domestic blow to the leaders of both France and Germany, raising questions about how the European Union’s major powers can drive policy in the bloc.

Making a risky gamble in a bid to seek to re-establish his authority, Macron called a parliamentary election, with the first round on June 30.

Read moreFrance’s Macron calls snap election in huge gamble after EU polls debacle

Like Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also endured a painful night where his Social Democrats scored their worst result ever, suffering at the hands of the mainstream conservatives and hard right Alternative for Germany (AfD).

01:14



Meanwhile, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni saw her position strengthened by her arch-conservative Brothers of Italy group winning the most votes, exit polls showed.

A rightwards shift inside the European Parliament may make it tougher to pass new legislation that might be needed to respond to security challenges, the impact of climate change or industrial competition from China and the United States.

However, exactly how much clout the euro-sceptic nationalist parties will wield will depend on their ability to overcome their differences and work together. They are currently split between two different families, and some parties and lawmakers for now lie outside these groupings.

The centre-right European People's Party (EPP) will be the biggest political family in the new legislature, gaining five seats to field 189 deputies, a centralised exit poll showed.

In Poland, Prime Minister Donald Tusk's centrist Civic Coalition, a member of the EPP, was set to win the European vote. In Spain as well, the centre-right People's Party, also part of the EPP, came out on top, outperforming Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez.


01:28



Such results were good news for EPP member Ursula von der Leyen who seeks a second five-year term at the helm of the powerful EU executive arm.

And she was quick to present herself as a shield against extremes.

"No majority can be formed without the EPP and together ... We will build a bastion against the extremes from the left and from the right," she told supporters at the EPP's election night event in Brussels.

She added, later in the evening: "But it is also true that extremes and on the left and the right have gained support and this is why the result comes with great responsibility for the parties in the centre."

Von der Leyen may still need support from some right-wing nationalists, such as Meloni's Brothers of Italy to secure a parliamentary majority, giving Meloni and her European Conservative and Reformists (ECR) allies more leverage - which could upset other potential allies.

Blow to the Greens

The centre-left Socialists and Democrats are poised to be the second biggest political family, even as they lost four lawmakers to end up with 135, the exit poll showed.

Political observers attribute the shift to the right to the rise in the cost of living, concerns about migration and the cost of the green transition as well as the war in Ukraine – worries that nationalist and populist parties have seized on.

"I think a lot of people felt that Europe is doing things not with people, but just doing it on top of people," Greens' lead candidate Bas Eickhout told Reuters in an interview, asked why the far right was doing so well.

"And I think here we need to come up with a credible answer, otherwise, we're only getting further to the far right," he said, after the Greens and liberals lost ground in the election.





The exit poll projected that pro-European centre-right, centre-left, liberal and Green parties will retain a majority of 460 seats, but one which is slimmed down compared to their 488 in the outgoing chamber of 705 deputies.

Europe's Green parties in particular suffered heavy losses, subsiding to 53 deputies from 71 in the outgoing parliament.

The number of non-affiliated deputies who may choose to join other groups, including the euro-sceptics, jumped by 33 to 95, the exit poll said.

The European Parliament co-decides with the intergovernmental European Council on laws governing the 27-nation bloc of 450 million people.


View the projections and final results of the European elections on our dedicated page.



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