Saturday, June 29, 2024

Half of Scots say case for second independence referendum will be weakened if Labour wins majority of Scottish seats

By Alistair Grant
Published 30th Jun 2024, 00:01 BST

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Just 28 per cent told the poll by Savanta the case for a second independence referendum would not be weakened

Just over half of Scots (51 per cent) think the case for a second independence referendum will be weakened if Labour wins a majority of seats in Scotland at the general election, a new poll for The Scotsman has found.

The poll by Savanta found just 28 per cent do not think it would be weakened, while 20 per cent don’t know.

Meanwhile, if the SNP wins a majority of seats, more people (49 per cent) do not think this should lead to a second referendum than think it should (44 per cent).


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Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar and UK leader Keir Starmer. Picture: Jane Barlow/PA

John Swinney, the SNP leader and First Minister, has said his party winning a majority of seats in Scotland should result in talks to deliver a second independence referendum.

However, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer previously said he will not engage in such negotiations. He accused the SNP of “focusing on the wrong priorities” and attacked their “dismal record of failure in government”.

Emma Levin, associate director at Savanta, said it was clear the independence cause “has taken a real knock”.

She said: "Labour's resurgence in Scotland has meant they have once again taken on the mantle of the main pro-union party. For some voters, weakening the case for independence will be one of the driving factors of their vote, but for many it's simply an unintended consequence of the SNP and Conservatives' shared collapse.

"It's clear that, along with the SNP's troubles, the cause for independence has taken a real knock over the last couple of years. That's reflected in our research where voters think even if the SNP got an unlikely majority of seats, they're still more likely to think a second independence referendum shouldn't take place."

Savanta interviewed 1,042 Scottish adults aged 16 and over online between June 21-25. Data was weighted to be demographically representative of Scottish adults by age, gender, region and past voting behaviour.

A quarter of those surveyed said they would be more likely to vote Yes to independence if Labour was in power in Westminster, while 14 per cent said they would be more likely to vote No. The majority (58 per cent) said it would make no difference.

Scots are divided on whether there should be another referendum, with 47 per cent saying there should be one and 48 per cent saying the opposite.

The poll found the SNP and Labour are now neck and neck on vote share north of the border, as the general election looms in just four days' time. However, Labour is still on course to win many more seats – 28 compared to the SNP’s 18 – due to the concentration of its support in the Central Belt.

Labour has dropped four points since the last Savanta poll for The Scotsman in mid June, while the SNP has gained one point, with both now on 34 per cent of the vote. Such a result would see the SNP fall well short of its goal of winning a majority of seats in Scotland in order to “intensify” the case for a second referendum.

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