Peter HUTCHISON
Fri, 14 June 2024 a
Nigel Farage's Reform UK party leap-frogged Rishi Sunak's Conservatives in an opinion poll (Darren Staples)
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on Friday played down a "seismic" poll suggesting that his Conservative party has fallen behind the hard-right anti-immigration Reform UK group for the first time.
But a senior Tory insisted that the YouGov survey was a "stark warning" that the main opposition Labour party was on track for a landslide win at next month's general election.
"The only poll that matters is the one on July 4," Sunak told British media in Italy, where he was attending the G7 leaders' meeting.
The new poll, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, shows Brexiteer Nigel Farage's Reform with 19 percent support, compared to the Conservatives' 18 percent. Both are trailing far behind the centre-left Labour party.
"The fact that Nigel Farage's party are neck and neck with the governing Conservatives is a seismic shift in the voting landscape," YouGov said.
It cautioned, though, that the figures are "well within the margin of error of one another".
"We will not be able to tell for some time whether Reform can sustain or improve their position relative to the Conservatives," the pollsters added.
The survey indicated that Labour, led by Keir Starmer, still held a commanding lead at 37 percent, in line with other surveys that have put it some 20 points ahead for nearly two years.
That has made Starmer odds-on to become the next prime minister.
But he is still fighting to overcome persistent Conservative claims that his party will recklessly spend public finances and increase personal taxes -- a perennial jibe from right-wingers.
"The poll is a stark warning," said government minister Laura Trott.
"If a result like this is replicated on election day, Keir Starmer would have huge and unchecked power to tax your home, your job, your car, your pension however he wants."
She echoed Sunak who said the election campaign had only just passed the half-way stage and that a vote for Reform would be "handing Labour a blank cheque".
"The Conservative party are fighting for every single vote in this election," added Trott.
Farage -- who at the last general election in 2019 did a deal with the Conservatives to avoid splitting the right-wing vote -- claimed on Thursday that Reform now represents the main opposition party to Labour, not the Conservatives.
- Tory future? -
How the opinion poll will play out if it is replicated on election day is unclear, with Britain's winner-takes-all first-past-the-post system favouring the bigger parties.
Some commentators have suggested the Conservatives, firmly on the back foot after a torrid 14 years in power marked by Brexit, Covid and a cost-of-living crisis, have tacitly conceded the election is unwinnable.
Senior Conservatives have taken to the airwaves in recent days to warn voters about handing Labour a "supermajority" in parliament for the next five years.
There are increasing questions, too, about what will happen to the Tories after the election, which would likely see Sunak stand down if Labour wins by a landslide.
Any Tory leadership contest would likely be an ideological fight between the centre-right and vocal right-wingers who have been increasingly critical of the party's immigration stance.
That has prompted talk of Farage, who on Friday reiterated his admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin as a "political operator" and described Adolf Hitler as "hypnotic in a very dangerous way", joining the Conservatives.
But the former member of the European Parliament, who is standing to be a British MP for the eighth time after seven failed attempts, has said instead that he wants to take over the party.
The Conservatives have gone through five prime ministers since 2016, including three in just four months in 2022.
Much of that was the result of Brexit.
But there were also other self-inflicted wounds, such as the chaos of Boris Johnson's time as leader and Liz Truss's short-lived tenure, when her unfunded tax cuts spooked the markets and crashed the pound.
Labour's Starmer, who is campaigning on promises to spur growth and restore economic "stability", is keen not to squander the party's huge poll lead, running a cautious campaign to end Tory "chaos".
Sunak ‘still fighting’ after Reform overtakes Tories in polls for first time
Daniel Martin
THE TELEGRAPH
Fri, 14 June 2024
Rishi Sunak was asked about the latest poll results while at the G7 summit in Puglia, southern Italy - Massimiliano De Giorgi/UPI/Shutterstock
Rishi Sunak has responded to Reform UK overtaking the Conservative Party in the polls and insisted that he is “still fighting” for every vote.
On Thursday, a YouGov poll suggested that Nigel Farage’s party had overtaken the Conservatives for the first time.
It put Reform UK on 19 per cent and the Tories on 18 per cent.
The Prime Minister said that those voting for Reform were “handing a blank cheque to Labour”, adding: “I’m still fighting very hard for every vote.”
And he pointed out that the Tory and Labour manifestos showed a “massive difference on tax”.
Mr Sunak was asked about the survey while at the G7 summit in Puglia, southern Italy.
He said: “Ultimately, if you’re not going to vote for a Conservative candidate that makes it more likely that Keir Starmer is in No 10.”
The Prime Minister went on: “We are only halfway through this election, so I’m still fighting very hard for every vote.
“And what that poll shows is – the only poll that matters is the one on July 4 – but if that poll was replicated on July 4, it would be handing labour a blank cheque to tax everyone, tax their home their pension their car, their family, and I’ll be fighting very hard to make sure that doesn’t happen.
“And actually, when I’ve been out and about talking to people, they do understand that a vote for anyone who is not a Conservative candidate is just a vote to put Keir Starmer in No 10.
“So if you want action on lower taxes, lower migration, protected pensions or a sensible approach to net zero you’re only going to get that by voting Conservative.”
Mr Sunak rejected Mr Farage’s claim that the poll shows that a vote for the Tories is now a vote for Labour.
“Ultimately, if you’re not going to vote for a Conservative candidate that makes it more likely that Keir Starmer is in No 10.
“And when people are thinking about the substance of what they want to see from a future government, if you’re someone who wants to see control over borders, you’re going to get that from us.
“You’re not going to get that from Labour, they’re going to cancel the Rwanda scheme, they’re not going to put in place a legal migration cap, if you want a sensible approach to net zero.
“I’ve already announced that, Labour would reverse those reforms and put everyone’s builds up with net zero costs.
“And if you want your pension protected, we’re the only ones offering it triple lock plus, so actually, you know when people sit down especially now this week when everyone can see very clearly the difference in approach from the two parties … will crystallise people’s minds on polling day.”
Nigel Farage claims the latest poll shows that a vote for the Tories is now a vote for Labour - Jonathan Hordle/ITV/via Getty Images Europe
Asked whether the poll represented an existential threat to the Conservatives, Mr Sunak said: “I think at the end of the day on July 5, one of two people’s going to be Prime Minister – Keir Starmer or me – and this week the most important thing that happened was you saw both major parties manifestos that’s their programme for government if they were elected.
“So now everyone has a very clear sense of what each of us would do and as you saw from our manifesto, as we were discussing yesterday, say what you want about it, but it’s a very clear plan, a detailed set of bold actions.
“That’s how you deliver a more secure future for people and crucially, there’s a massive difference on tax.
“We want to cut your taxes at every stage of your life in work, setting up a business, buying your first home, when you’re retired, you’re a pensioner or if you have a family cutting taxes for everybody.
“The Labour Party consistently can’t tell you which taxes they’re going to put up but they are going to put them up and as we saw yesterday, they’re gonna raise the tax burden to the highest level in this country’s history. And that’s the choice for everyone at the election.”
Reform UK overtakes PM Sunak's Conservatives in opinion poll
Reuters
Updated Thu, 13 June 2024 at 9:56 pm GMT-6·2-min read
Reform UK general election campaign event, in London
LONDON (Reuters) - Nigel Farage's Reform UK Party overtook Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's Conservatives in an opinion poll for the first time on Thursday ahead of Britain's election on July 4.
The poll by YouGov for the Times newspaper put Reform UK on 19%, up from 17% previously, and the Conservative Party unchanged on 18%. The opposition Labour Party topped the poll with 37%.
The survey of 2,211 people was carried out June 12-13, after Sunak pledged to cut 17 billion pounds ($21.70 billion) of taxes for working people in his party's election manifesto.
Reform's poll rating has risen since Farage, best known for his successful campaign for Britain to leave the European Union, said he was returning to frontline politics, taking over leadership of the party and standing for election to parliament.
"This is the inflection point. The only wasted vote now is a Conservative vote, we are the challengers to Labour and we are on our way," Farage said in a video posted on X.
A small right-wing party, founded in 2018 as the Brexit Party, Reform backs populist causes such as tougher immigration laws.
Asked if the trend would stick, a Conservative lawmaker who declined to be named said: "Yes. I think people are fed up with the Tories (Conservatives), but not with Conservatism. So they are moving to another Conservative party."
Sunak's campaign has also been hit by sharp criticism after he left D-Day memorial events in France earlier than other world leaders.
Other opinion polls show the Conservatives much further ahead of Reform.
Despite overtaking Sunak's Conservatives in Thursday's poll - which reflected the share of a nationwide vote - Reform is not forecast to win many, if any, parliamentary seats.
Its support is spread comparatively evenly across the country, whereas backing for the larger and more established parties is more concentrated by geographic areas.
Britain has a first-past-the-post electoral system, meaning Reform could pick up millions of votes across the country without winning any of parliament's 650 individual constituencies.
($1 = 0.7835 pounds)
(Reporting by Kylie MacLellan and William James; Editing by Angus MacSwan and Daniel Wallis)
Fri, 14 June 2024
Rishi Sunak was asked about the latest poll results while at the G7 summit in Puglia, southern Italy - Massimiliano De Giorgi/UPI/Shutterstock
Rishi Sunak has responded to Reform UK overtaking the Conservative Party in the polls and insisted that he is “still fighting” for every vote.
On Thursday, a YouGov poll suggested that Nigel Farage’s party had overtaken the Conservatives for the first time.
It put Reform UK on 19 per cent and the Tories on 18 per cent.
The Prime Minister said that those voting for Reform were “handing a blank cheque to Labour”, adding: “I’m still fighting very hard for every vote.”
And he pointed out that the Tory and Labour manifestos showed a “massive difference on tax”.
Mr Sunak was asked about the survey while at the G7 summit in Puglia, southern Italy.
He said: “Ultimately, if you’re not going to vote for a Conservative candidate that makes it more likely that Keir Starmer is in No 10.”
The Prime Minister went on: “We are only halfway through this election, so I’m still fighting very hard for every vote.
“And what that poll shows is – the only poll that matters is the one on July 4 – but if that poll was replicated on July 4, it would be handing labour a blank cheque to tax everyone, tax their home their pension their car, their family, and I’ll be fighting very hard to make sure that doesn’t happen.
“And actually, when I’ve been out and about talking to people, they do understand that a vote for anyone who is not a Conservative candidate is just a vote to put Keir Starmer in No 10.
“So if you want action on lower taxes, lower migration, protected pensions or a sensible approach to net zero you’re only going to get that by voting Conservative.”
Mr Sunak rejected Mr Farage’s claim that the poll shows that a vote for the Tories is now a vote for Labour.
“Ultimately, if you’re not going to vote for a Conservative candidate that makes it more likely that Keir Starmer is in No 10.
“And when people are thinking about the substance of what they want to see from a future government, if you’re someone who wants to see control over borders, you’re going to get that from us.
“You’re not going to get that from Labour, they’re going to cancel the Rwanda scheme, they’re not going to put in place a legal migration cap, if you want a sensible approach to net zero.
“I’ve already announced that, Labour would reverse those reforms and put everyone’s builds up with net zero costs.
“And if you want your pension protected, we’re the only ones offering it triple lock plus, so actually, you know when people sit down especially now this week when everyone can see very clearly the difference in approach from the two parties … will crystallise people’s minds on polling day.”
Nigel Farage claims the latest poll shows that a vote for the Tories is now a vote for Labour - Jonathan Hordle/ITV/via Getty Images Europe
Asked whether the poll represented an existential threat to the Conservatives, Mr Sunak said: “I think at the end of the day on July 5, one of two people’s going to be Prime Minister – Keir Starmer or me – and this week the most important thing that happened was you saw both major parties manifestos that’s their programme for government if they were elected.
“So now everyone has a very clear sense of what each of us would do and as you saw from our manifesto, as we were discussing yesterday, say what you want about it, but it’s a very clear plan, a detailed set of bold actions.
“That’s how you deliver a more secure future for people and crucially, there’s a massive difference on tax.
“We want to cut your taxes at every stage of your life in work, setting up a business, buying your first home, when you’re retired, you’re a pensioner or if you have a family cutting taxes for everybody.
“The Labour Party consistently can’t tell you which taxes they’re going to put up but they are going to put them up and as we saw yesterday, they’re gonna raise the tax burden to the highest level in this country’s history. And that’s the choice for everyone at the election.”
Reform UK overtakes PM Sunak's Conservatives in opinion poll
Reuters
Updated Thu, 13 June 2024 at 9:56 pm GMT-6·2-min read
Reform UK general election campaign event, in London
LONDON (Reuters) - Nigel Farage's Reform UK Party overtook Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's Conservatives in an opinion poll for the first time on Thursday ahead of Britain's election on July 4.
The poll by YouGov for the Times newspaper put Reform UK on 19%, up from 17% previously, and the Conservative Party unchanged on 18%. The opposition Labour Party topped the poll with 37%.
The survey of 2,211 people was carried out June 12-13, after Sunak pledged to cut 17 billion pounds ($21.70 billion) of taxes for working people in his party's election manifesto.
Reform's poll rating has risen since Farage, best known for his successful campaign for Britain to leave the European Union, said he was returning to frontline politics, taking over leadership of the party and standing for election to parliament.
"This is the inflection point. The only wasted vote now is a Conservative vote, we are the challengers to Labour and we are on our way," Farage said in a video posted on X.
A small right-wing party, founded in 2018 as the Brexit Party, Reform backs populist causes such as tougher immigration laws.
Asked if the trend would stick, a Conservative lawmaker who declined to be named said: "Yes. I think people are fed up with the Tories (Conservatives), but not with Conservatism. So they are moving to another Conservative party."
Sunak's campaign has also been hit by sharp criticism after he left D-Day memorial events in France earlier than other world leaders.
Other opinion polls show the Conservatives much further ahead of Reform.
Despite overtaking Sunak's Conservatives in Thursday's poll - which reflected the share of a nationwide vote - Reform is not forecast to win many, if any, parliamentary seats.
Its support is spread comparatively evenly across the country, whereas backing for the larger and more established parties is more concentrated by geographic areas.
Britain has a first-past-the-post electoral system, meaning Reform could pick up millions of votes across the country without winning any of parliament's 650 individual constituencies.
($1 = 0.7835 pounds)
(Reporting by Kylie MacLellan and William James; Editing by Angus MacSwan and Daniel Wallis)
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