UK
How the Greens could deliver a shock victory in two rural seats

The Green Party on course for a breakthrough to beat the Tories in Waveney Valley and North Herefordshire

Hannah Davenport 

21 June, 2024 
Left Foot Forward

The Green Party are hoping to quadruple its number of MPs in Parliament this general election and, as the election campaign goes on, the odds are looking more optimistic.

Polling has implied so far that the Greens are most likely to come out with two seats after July 4th, still a win, however the party’s chances in all four areas are growing as support for the Conservatives dwindles.

Sian Berry, who is standing in Caroline Lucas’s old seat was predicted in a More in Common poll to come out top with a stonking majority in Brighton Pavillion, which the Greens have held since 2010. However an Ipsos MRP poll did predict the party would lose the seat, highlighting just how varied the polls can be.

The latest YouGov MRP has put co-leader Carla Denyer on course for a win in Bristol, where she is taking on Labour MP Thangam Debbonaire.

Now, new polling done for the Greens by the pollster WeThink has suggested the party is ahead in the two rural constituencies of North Herefordshire and Waveney Valley, giving the Conservatives a run for their money and an example of where tactical voting will be key.

It marks the first time the Greens have made a significant impression outside of its traditional urban base and would prove hugely significant for the smaller party.

Adrian Ramsay is Denyer’s fellow co-leader of the party and standing in Waveney Valley in Suffolk. He told the Guardian that public anger around the issue of river sewage and concern for the environment was cutting through with voters there.

Ramsay said Tory voters were “thinking about what the future is going to be like for their children or grandchildren” and voting Green. He added that the Greens had a long track record of support in the Mid Suffolk area, having hugely increased their number of local councillors in the last local elections.

In Waveney, the poll of 500 people by WeThink has put the Greens on 37% of the vote, with the Conservatives behind on 24%.

The Green Party’s housing spokesperson Ellie Chowns is standing in North Herefordshire where she came fourth in 2019. Now however, the polling has put her ahead this election with 39% of support against the incumbent Tory candidate on 28%.

With the backing of a huge, targeted campaign, the former Green MEP could just beat the Tory MP Sir Bill Wiggin who has held the seat since 2010.

With two weeks to go until the election results, the Greens could be on course for a breakthrough to gain their loudest voice ever in the Houses of Common.

Hannah Davenport is news reporter at Left Foot Forward