Lancet: 186,000 Palestinians or more killed in Gaza
By denying the world access to the true death toll in Gaza, Israel is acting, once again, as a complete rogue state
Owen Schalk / July 9, 2024 / CANADIAN DIMENSION
Peer-reviewed medical journal The Lancet has just published an article “conservatively” estimating that the death toll from Israel’s assault on Gaza could be 186,000 people or more. Photo by Humberto Patrick/Wikimedia Commons.
A new study by the peer-reviewed medical journal The Lancet estimates that the current death toll from Israel’s brutal assault on the Gaza Strip—which the International Court of Justice (ICJ) has described as “plausible genocide”—is at least 186,000. This would translate to nearly eight percent of Gaza’s population.
The bombshell death toll estimate is roughly 150,000 more than current numbers offered by the Gaza Ministry of Health. If The Lancet figure is accurate, then the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has killed 169 Palestinians for every Israeli killed on October 7, 2023.
The Lancet notes that between October 7, 2023 and June 19, 2024, the Israeli military has killed 37,396 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, per the Gaza Ministry of Health. While the Israeli government has attempted to discredit the Ministry of Health’s casualty figures, the report’s authors, Rasha Khatib, Martin McKee, and Salim Yusuf, write that “[the numbers] have been accepted as accurate by Israeli intelligence services, the UN, and WHO,” as well as independent analyses.
Data on Palestinians killed by the IDF has become increasingly difficult to collect due to the IDF’s destruction of Gaza’s infrastructure. Even so, the authors argue that “the number of reported deaths is likely an underestimate”:
The nongovernmental organisation Airwars undertakes detailed assessments of incidents in the Gaza Strip and often finds that not all names of identifiable victims are included in the Ministry’s list. Furthermore, the UN estimates that, by Feb 29, 2024, 35% of buildings in the Gaza Strip had been destroyed, so the number of bodies still buried in the rubble is likely substantial, with estimates of more than 10000.
The Lancet distinguishes between “direct” and “indirect” deaths—Palestinians directly killed by the IDF, and those killed as a result of health implications caused by Israeli violence. As the authors note, the combined total of direct and indirect deaths is already enormous due to the IDF’s destruction of health care infrastructure; food and water shortages caused by Israel’s blockading of aid into the strip; the IDF’s bombing of supposed “safe zones”; and Western countries cutting funding to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA).
“In recent conflicts,” the authors write, “indirect deaths range from three to 15 times the number of direct deaths.” Therefore, a conservative estimate of “indirect” deaths—four “indirect” deaths for every Palestinian directly killed by the IDF—brings total deaths up to over 186,000. The actual number may be much higher.
In March of this year, former US presidential candidate Ralph Nader argued that the death toll published by the Gaza Ministry of Health is a substantial undercount. Significantly, the Ministry of Health only reports the deaths of those named deceased by hospitals and morgues—but Israel bombs Gaza’s hospitals as a matter of policy, kills health care workers, and abducts and tortures hospital administrators, as the case of Dr. Muhammad Abu Salmiya shows.
Israel’s nine-month assault has sent Gaza’s health care infrastructure teetering on the brink of nonexistence. The rubble continues to pile up with no end in sight, burying untold thousands of unidentified victims while aid is barred from entering Gaza and humanitarian agencies are deterred by targeted assassinations of aid workers.
Last month, Save the Children reported nearly 21,000 children missing in Gaza, “trapped beneath rubble, buried in unmarked graves, harmed beyond recognition by explosives, detained by Israeli forces, or lost in the chaos of conflict.”
There is simply no way the Ministry of Health’s death toll has kept up with the actual number of dead. And yet media outlets continue to report it, ignoring evidence that the actual number of Palestinians killed by Israel is likely much higher. As a result, many observers are left with a faulty impression of the magnitude of Gaza’s devastation.
As Nader wrote in March:
It matters greatly whether the aggregate toll so far, and counting, is three, four, five, six times more than the Health Ministry’s undercount. It matters for elevating the urgency for a permanent cease-fire, and direct and massive humanitarian aid by the US and other countries, bypassing the sadistic cruelty against innocent families of the Israeli siege. It matters for the columnists and editorial writers who have been self-censoring themselves, with some… fictionally claiming that Israel’s military doesn’t “intentionally target civilians.” It matters for accountability under international law.
Nader is right: the death toll resulting from Israel’s invasion is a matter of international law. As The Lancet authors note, the Israeli government is legally required to document the full cost of its war on Gaza:
The interim measures set out by the International Court of Justice in January, 2024, require Israel to ‘take effective measures to prevent the destruction and ensure the preservation of evidence related to allegations of acts within the scope of … the Genocide Convention.’ [But] the Gaza Health Ministry is the only organisation counting the dead.
By denying the world access to the true death toll in Gaza, Israel is acting, once again, as a complete rogue state. But Western governments, including Canada, don’t see it this way. Because they are supporting Israel’s war on Gaza, they seem to believe that international law no longer applies.
Canada, for its part, has offered steadfast military and diplomatic support for Israel since the Hamas attacks of October 7.
In fact, Ottawa is an accessory to the epochal humanitarian disaster in Gaza. The Canadian government accelerated weapons shipments to Israel as the IDF launched its invasion of coastal enclave, and since then, Ottawa has declined to suspend military exports to Israel despite the ICJ’s genocide ruling. At the same time, Ottawa has offered consistent rhetorical support for the Israeli invasion while refusing to condemn IDF atrocities against Palestinians.
The Canadian government has demonized Palestine solidarity actions across the country. Canadian media has whitewashed Israeli crimes. Across Canada, police departments have targeted pro-Palestine activists and violently torn down peaceful encampments on university campuses—all while the death toll in Gaza has climbed to horrific proportions.
By pressing forward with the mass killing of Palestinians despite international calls for a ceasefire, Israel stands condemned before the world—a criminal pariah state. And Canada, by supporting the bloodshed and repressing domestic resistance to its blindly pro-Israel orientation, will forever be marked as an active participant in the genocide of Palestinians.
This is undeniable right now, but as The Lancet’s death toll estimate shows, the scale of Israeli violence will become clearer—and more reprehensible—with time.
As the death toll increases, so does Canadian complicity in the eradication of Gaza, one of the most documented, shocking, and abhorrent crimes against humanity this century.
Owen Schalk is a writer from rural Manitoba. He is the author of Canada in Afghanistan: A story of military, diplomatic, political and media failure, 2003-2023 and the co-author of Canada’s Long Fight Against Democracy with Yves Engler.
By denying the world access to the true death toll in Gaza, Israel is acting, once again, as a complete rogue state
Owen Schalk / July 9, 2024 / CANADIAN DIMENSION
Peer-reviewed medical journal The Lancet has just published an article “conservatively” estimating that the death toll from Israel’s assault on Gaza could be 186,000 people or more. Photo by Humberto Patrick/Wikimedia Commons.
A new study by the peer-reviewed medical journal The Lancet estimates that the current death toll from Israel’s brutal assault on the Gaza Strip—which the International Court of Justice (ICJ) has described as “plausible genocide”—is at least 186,000. This would translate to nearly eight percent of Gaza’s population.
The bombshell death toll estimate is roughly 150,000 more than current numbers offered by the Gaza Ministry of Health. If The Lancet figure is accurate, then the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has killed 169 Palestinians for every Israeli killed on October 7, 2023.
The Lancet notes that between October 7, 2023 and June 19, 2024, the Israeli military has killed 37,396 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, per the Gaza Ministry of Health. While the Israeli government has attempted to discredit the Ministry of Health’s casualty figures, the report’s authors, Rasha Khatib, Martin McKee, and Salim Yusuf, write that “[the numbers] have been accepted as accurate by Israeli intelligence services, the UN, and WHO,” as well as independent analyses.
Data on Palestinians killed by the IDF has become increasingly difficult to collect due to the IDF’s destruction of Gaza’s infrastructure. Even so, the authors argue that “the number of reported deaths is likely an underestimate”:
The nongovernmental organisation Airwars undertakes detailed assessments of incidents in the Gaza Strip and often finds that not all names of identifiable victims are included in the Ministry’s list. Furthermore, the UN estimates that, by Feb 29, 2024, 35% of buildings in the Gaza Strip had been destroyed, so the number of bodies still buried in the rubble is likely substantial, with estimates of more than 10000.
The Lancet distinguishes between “direct” and “indirect” deaths—Palestinians directly killed by the IDF, and those killed as a result of health implications caused by Israeli violence. As the authors note, the combined total of direct and indirect deaths is already enormous due to the IDF’s destruction of health care infrastructure; food and water shortages caused by Israel’s blockading of aid into the strip; the IDF’s bombing of supposed “safe zones”; and Western countries cutting funding to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA).
“In recent conflicts,” the authors write, “indirect deaths range from three to 15 times the number of direct deaths.” Therefore, a conservative estimate of “indirect” deaths—four “indirect” deaths for every Palestinian directly killed by the IDF—brings total deaths up to over 186,000. The actual number may be much higher.
In March of this year, former US presidential candidate Ralph Nader argued that the death toll published by the Gaza Ministry of Health is a substantial undercount. Significantly, the Ministry of Health only reports the deaths of those named deceased by hospitals and morgues—but Israel bombs Gaza’s hospitals as a matter of policy, kills health care workers, and abducts and tortures hospital administrators, as the case of Dr. Muhammad Abu Salmiya shows.
Israel’s nine-month assault has sent Gaza’s health care infrastructure teetering on the brink of nonexistence. The rubble continues to pile up with no end in sight, burying untold thousands of unidentified victims while aid is barred from entering Gaza and humanitarian agencies are deterred by targeted assassinations of aid workers.
Last month, Save the Children reported nearly 21,000 children missing in Gaza, “trapped beneath rubble, buried in unmarked graves, harmed beyond recognition by explosives, detained by Israeli forces, or lost in the chaos of conflict.”
There is simply no way the Ministry of Health’s death toll has kept up with the actual number of dead. And yet media outlets continue to report it, ignoring evidence that the actual number of Palestinians killed by Israel is likely much higher. As a result, many observers are left with a faulty impression of the magnitude of Gaza’s devastation.
As Nader wrote in March:
It matters greatly whether the aggregate toll so far, and counting, is three, four, five, six times more than the Health Ministry’s undercount. It matters for elevating the urgency for a permanent cease-fire, and direct and massive humanitarian aid by the US and other countries, bypassing the sadistic cruelty against innocent families of the Israeli siege. It matters for the columnists and editorial writers who have been self-censoring themselves, with some… fictionally claiming that Israel’s military doesn’t “intentionally target civilians.” It matters for accountability under international law.
Nader is right: the death toll resulting from Israel’s invasion is a matter of international law. As The Lancet authors note, the Israeli government is legally required to document the full cost of its war on Gaza:
The interim measures set out by the International Court of Justice in January, 2024, require Israel to ‘take effective measures to prevent the destruction and ensure the preservation of evidence related to allegations of acts within the scope of … the Genocide Convention.’ [But] the Gaza Health Ministry is the only organisation counting the dead.
By denying the world access to the true death toll in Gaza, Israel is acting, once again, as a complete rogue state. But Western governments, including Canada, don’t see it this way. Because they are supporting Israel’s war on Gaza, they seem to believe that international law no longer applies.
Canada, for its part, has offered steadfast military and diplomatic support for Israel since the Hamas attacks of October 7.
In fact, Ottawa is an accessory to the epochal humanitarian disaster in Gaza. The Canadian government accelerated weapons shipments to Israel as the IDF launched its invasion of coastal enclave, and since then, Ottawa has declined to suspend military exports to Israel despite the ICJ’s genocide ruling. At the same time, Ottawa has offered consistent rhetorical support for the Israeli invasion while refusing to condemn IDF atrocities against Palestinians.
The Canadian government has demonized Palestine solidarity actions across the country. Canadian media has whitewashed Israeli crimes. Across Canada, police departments have targeted pro-Palestine activists and violently torn down peaceful encampments on university campuses—all while the death toll in Gaza has climbed to horrific proportions.
By pressing forward with the mass killing of Palestinians despite international calls for a ceasefire, Israel stands condemned before the world—a criminal pariah state. And Canada, by supporting the bloodshed and repressing domestic resistance to its blindly pro-Israel orientation, will forever be marked as an active participant in the genocide of Palestinians.
This is undeniable right now, but as The Lancet’s death toll estimate shows, the scale of Israeli violence will become clearer—and more reprehensible—with time.
As the death toll increases, so does Canadian complicity in the eradication of Gaza, one of the most documented, shocking, and abhorrent crimes against humanity this century.
Owen Schalk is a writer from rural Manitoba. He is the author of Canada in Afghanistan: A story of military, diplomatic, political and media failure, 2003-2023 and the co-author of Canada’s Long Fight Against Democracy with Yves Engler.
Israeli Campaign against Gaza may have Killed 186,000 or More — 8% of Population: The Lancet
Muhammad Jawad et al., in a survey of 118 unique armed conflicts affecting 102 countries from 1990 to 2017 found that they produced an average of 19.2 battle-related deaths per 100,000 population (54.7 for those in war as opposed to minor conflict). There were in addition an average of 311 excess deaths per 100,000 population from causes other than being immediately killed by a bomb or bullet. So, 16 civilians died of starvation, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases and injuries, for every direct death in combat.
And this seems important, in the Jawad et al. study: “Effect estimates were disproportionately larger for children aged under 5 years, regardless of the cause of death.” Gaza had some 350,000 children under 5. UNICEF reported in May, “9 out of 10 children under 5 in Gaza are suffering from one or more infectious diseases. Levels of acute watery diarrhea are 20 times higher than typical.” Already last March, 1 in 3 children under 2 were acutely malnourished, a condition that produces permanent cognitive and emotional damage.
The Lancet authors used a much smaller multiplier, of four indirect deaths for each direct death. Based on the death toll known when the paper was written, they arrived at 186,000 dead. They admit that the estimate of four indirect deaths for every direct one is conservative, so the number could be substantially greater.
Khatib et al. point out that public health officials as early as last February were predicting 90,000 deaths, at least, by August 6 if the war escalated and an epidemic broke out. There certainly has been a vast escalation, with a full bore Israeli attack on Rafah during the past two months, the last of the so-called safe zones, to which over a million people had been displaced.
The Lancet authors make these points:A ceasefire is required without a second’s delay.
Medical supplies, food, and clean water must be flowed into the Strip immediately.
The scale and character of the suffering in this conflict must be documented. That is important for establishing historical accountability and for estimating the full cost of this war. Such documentation is, moreover, legally required of Israel by the January 26, 2024 ruling on interim measures by the International Court of Justice as part of its deliberations on whether Israel is committing genocide, to which Israel has not been responsive.
“Furthermore, these data will be crucial for post-war recovery, restoring infrastructure, and planning humanitarian aid.”
I have pointed out that given the definition of famine and the identification of 500,000 Palestinians in Gaza as being in a stage 5 famine zone, nearly 20,000 Palestinians could be starving each month. If the zone were defined by only 20% of it seeing that level of death, then that would still be 5,000 dead of famine each month, on top of those killed by bombs and airstrikes and those falling ill to rampant disease, malnutrition and dehydration. The Lancet study is consistent with total deaths of nearly 21,000 a month, though, again, this is a conservative estimate.
Juan Cole
Juan R. I. Cole is Richard P. Mitchell Collegiate Professor of History at the University of Michigan. For three and a half decades, he has sought to put the relationship of the West and the Muslim world in historical context, and he has written widely about Egypt, Iran, Iraq, and South Asia. His books include Muhammad: Prophet of Peace Amid the Clash of Empires; The New Arabs: How the Millennial Generation is Changing the Middle East; Engaging the Muslim World; and Napoleon’s Egypt: Invading the Middle East.
By Juan Cole
July 8, 2024
Source: Informed Content
Rasha Khatib, Martin McKee and Salim Yusuf, The Lancet calculate that 186,000 or more people have been killed by the Israeli total war on Gaza, about 8% of the population.
If you do not see this study reported on your cable “news” channel, you may conclude that the corporation that owns it is complicit in genocide.
One of the paper’s authors, Martin McKee, “is a member of the editorial board of the Israel Journal of Health Policy Research and of the International Advisory Committee of the Israel National Institute for Health Policy Research.” Although McKee says he is writing solely in a personal capacity, I think we may conclude that some members of the professional Israeli public health community have their hair on fire about the prosecution of the Gaza War.
The Gaza Ministry of Health now says that over 38,000 Palestinians have been killed by the Israelis. As The Lancet notes, the World Health Organization and even the Israeli intelligence services accept these figures. Since the Israeli Air Force has dropped as many as five hundred two-thousand-pound bombs and by now has destroyed or damaged a majority of the buildings in the Gaza Strip, it is likely that at least 10,000 uncounted dead are under the rubble.
The 38,000 dead are the result of what is called direct gathering of the figures. Initially the dead were identified and reported by hospitals. As Israel has reduced the ability of hospitals to function by its attacks on them, this direct reporting has continued, but hospitals began being unable in some cases to send along identification, though they could confirm the reception of the corpses. Some dishonest observers suggested that this inability to know the names of the dead somehow made the numbers less reliable, but the World Health Organization refuted this allegation. The dead are in makeshift morgues still gradually being identified.
Al Jazeera English Video: “Dozens killed across Gaza as Israel’s war enters 10th month”
Indirect counting of the dead attempts to calculate the missing people using statistical methods. Sometimes public health experts have attempted to interview people to collect data on dead family members and friends, and then projected totals based on these surveys. That method is not available in Gaza, where the Israeli authorities will not permit journalists and other observers, and where it is dangerous to be because there are no real safe zones, with those regions declared safe zones often having been bombed.
Rasha Khatib, Martin McKee and Salim Yusuf, The Lancet calculate that 186,000 or more people have been killed by the Israeli total war on Gaza, about 8% of the population.
If you do not see this study reported on your cable “news” channel, you may conclude that the corporation that owns it is complicit in genocide.
One of the paper’s authors, Martin McKee, “is a member of the editorial board of the Israel Journal of Health Policy Research and of the International Advisory Committee of the Israel National Institute for Health Policy Research.” Although McKee says he is writing solely in a personal capacity, I think we may conclude that some members of the professional Israeli public health community have their hair on fire about the prosecution of the Gaza War.
The Gaza Ministry of Health now says that over 38,000 Palestinians have been killed by the Israelis. As The Lancet notes, the World Health Organization and even the Israeli intelligence services accept these figures. Since the Israeli Air Force has dropped as many as five hundred two-thousand-pound bombs and by now has destroyed or damaged a majority of the buildings in the Gaza Strip, it is likely that at least 10,000 uncounted dead are under the rubble.
The 38,000 dead are the result of what is called direct gathering of the figures. Initially the dead were identified and reported by hospitals. As Israel has reduced the ability of hospitals to function by its attacks on them, this direct reporting has continued, but hospitals began being unable in some cases to send along identification, though they could confirm the reception of the corpses. Some dishonest observers suggested that this inability to know the names of the dead somehow made the numbers less reliable, but the World Health Organization refuted this allegation. The dead are in makeshift morgues still gradually being identified.
Al Jazeera English Video: “Dozens killed across Gaza as Israel’s war enters 10th month”
Indirect counting of the dead attempts to calculate the missing people using statistical methods. Sometimes public health experts have attempted to interview people to collect data on dead family members and friends, and then projected totals based on these surveys. That method is not available in Gaza, where the Israeli authorities will not permit journalists and other observers, and where it is dangerous to be because there are no real safe zones, with those regions declared safe zones often having been bombed.
Muhammad Jawad et al., in a survey of 118 unique armed conflicts affecting 102 countries from 1990 to 2017 found that they produced an average of 19.2 battle-related deaths per 100,000 population (54.7 for those in war as opposed to minor conflict). There were in addition an average of 311 excess deaths per 100,000 population from causes other than being immediately killed by a bomb or bullet. So, 16 civilians died of starvation, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases and injuries, for every direct death in combat.
And this seems important, in the Jawad et al. study: “Effect estimates were disproportionately larger for children aged under 5 years, regardless of the cause of death.” Gaza had some 350,000 children under 5. UNICEF reported in May, “9 out of 10 children under 5 in Gaza are suffering from one or more infectious diseases. Levels of acute watery diarrhea are 20 times higher than typical.” Already last March, 1 in 3 children under 2 were acutely malnourished, a condition that produces permanent cognitive and emotional damage.
The Lancet authors used a much smaller multiplier, of four indirect deaths for each direct death. Based on the death toll known when the paper was written, they arrived at 186,000 dead. They admit that the estimate of four indirect deaths for every direct one is conservative, so the number could be substantially greater.
Khatib et al. point out that public health officials as early as last February were predicting 90,000 deaths, at least, by August 6 if the war escalated and an epidemic broke out. There certainly has been a vast escalation, with a full bore Israeli attack on Rafah during the past two months, the last of the so-called safe zones, to which over a million people had been displaced.
The Lancet authors make these points:A ceasefire is required without a second’s delay.
Medical supplies, food, and clean water must be flowed into the Strip immediately.
The scale and character of the suffering in this conflict must be documented. That is important for establishing historical accountability and for estimating the full cost of this war. Such documentation is, moreover, legally required of Israel by the January 26, 2024 ruling on interim measures by the International Court of Justice as part of its deliberations on whether Israel is committing genocide, to which Israel has not been responsive.
“Furthermore, these data will be crucial for post-war recovery, restoring infrastructure, and planning humanitarian aid.”
I have pointed out that given the definition of famine and the identification of 500,000 Palestinians in Gaza as being in a stage 5 famine zone, nearly 20,000 Palestinians could be starving each month. If the zone were defined by only 20% of it seeing that level of death, then that would still be 5,000 dead of famine each month, on top of those killed by bombs and airstrikes and those falling ill to rampant disease, malnutrition and dehydration. The Lancet study is consistent with total deaths of nearly 21,000 a month, though, again, this is a conservative estimate.
Juan Cole
Juan R. I. Cole is Richard P. Mitchell Collegiate Professor of History at the University of Michigan. For three and a half decades, he has sought to put the relationship of the West and the Muslim world in historical context, and he has written widely about Egypt, Iran, Iraq, and South Asia. His books include Muhammad: Prophet of Peace Amid the Clash of Empires; The New Arabs: How the Millennial Generation is Changing the Middle East; Engaging the Muslim World; and Napoleon’s Egypt: Invading the Middle East.
New analysis highlights the devastating indirect effects of the ongoing conflict in Gaza, suggesting the true death toll could reach nearly 200,000, far surpassing official counts.
July 10, 2024
Source: Nation of Change
A new analysis has revealed that the death toll in Gaza could exceed 186,000 as a result of indirect effects from the ongoing conflict, highlighting a humanitarian crisis of staggering proportions. The study, published in the medical journal The Lancet on July 5, suggests that the true impact of the war extends far beyond the immediate casualties from violence.
The official death toll reported by Gaza health officials stands at 38,193, a figure that includes those killed directly by Israeli airstrikes and military actions. However, public health experts Rasha Khatib of the Advocate Aurora Research Institute, Martin McKee of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, and Salim Yusuf of McMaster University and Hamilton Health Sciences argue that this number significantly underestimates the actual death toll. They cite the destruction of healthcare infrastructure, the blockade on humanitarian aid, and widespread starvation as contributing factors to a much higher number of deaths.
“Armed conflicts have indirect health implications beyond the direct harm from violence,” wrote the authors. They estimate that the total number of deaths could approach 200,000 when including indirect causes such as reproductive, communicable, and noncommunicable diseases. The experts point out that in recent conflicts, indirect deaths have ranged from three to 15 times the number of direct deaths. Applying a conservative estimate of four indirect deaths per one direct death to the reported figures, the study suggests a possible death toll of up to 186,000.
This projected toll represents approximately 7%-9% of Gaza’s population, which was estimated at over 2.3 million people in 2022. The destruction of Gaza’s healthcare system has had devastating consequences. Hospitals and medical facilities have been obliterated, severely limiting access to medical care for those in need. The blockade on humanitarian aid has exacerbated these conditions, leading to shortages of medical supplies, food, and clean water.
The study emphasizes that even if the conflict were to end immediately, the indirect deaths would continue to rise due to the prolonged impact on healthcare and living conditions. An untold number of Palestinians in Gaza have already died because they were unable to receive medical care, suffered from malnutrition, or were affected by the overall collapse of public infrastructure.
The authors also highlight the difficulty in accurately counting the dead in such a chaotic environment. U.S. President Joe Biden expressed skepticism about the reported death counts early in the conflict, and the U.N. revised its civilian death toll in May. However, the study’s authors argue that these figures are likely still underestimates. They note that thousands of Palestinians may remain buried under rubble from Israeli airstrikes. According to the U.N., by February 2024, 35% of buildings in Gaza had been destroyed, suggesting a substantial number of bodies could still be undiscovered.
Israeli intelligence services, the World Health Organization, and the United Nations have all agreed that claims of data fabrication by Palestinian authorities in Gaza are “implausible.” The study reiterates this point, dismissing allegations that the Gaza Health Ministry’s figures are inflated.
Political analyst Omar Baddar noted that statements from top-level Israeli officials regarding their intent to “thin the population” of Gaza lend credibility to the high death toll estimates. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made remarks about reducing the population, which align with the grim projections provided by the Lancet study.
Additional reports have supported the findings of widespread and systematic violence. The Israeli news outlet +972 Magazine published interviews with six Israeli soldiers who described the routine execution of Palestinian civilians and the systematic policy of setting Palestinian homes on fire after occupying them.
The study calls for an immediate and urgent ceasefire in Gaza, accompanied by measures to distribute medical supplies, food, clean water, and other essential resources. “At the same time, there is a need to record the scale and nature of suffering in this conflict,” the authors wrote. “Documenting the true scale is crucial for ensuring historical accountability and acknowledging the full cost of the war.”
Jordan Atwood is a dynamic War and Politics Reporter known for his incisive analysis and comprehensive coverage of international conflicts and political landscapes. His work is driven by a commitment to uncovering the truth and providing a clear, informed understanding of complex geopolitical events. Jordan's reporting not only captures the realities of war but also delves into the political strategies and implications behind them, making his work essential for those seeking a deeper understanding of world affairs.
A new analysis has revealed that the death toll in Gaza could exceed 186,000 as a result of indirect effects from the ongoing conflict, highlighting a humanitarian crisis of staggering proportions. The study, published in the medical journal The Lancet on July 5, suggests that the true impact of the war extends far beyond the immediate casualties from violence.
The official death toll reported by Gaza health officials stands at 38,193, a figure that includes those killed directly by Israeli airstrikes and military actions. However, public health experts Rasha Khatib of the Advocate Aurora Research Institute, Martin McKee of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, and Salim Yusuf of McMaster University and Hamilton Health Sciences argue that this number significantly underestimates the actual death toll. They cite the destruction of healthcare infrastructure, the blockade on humanitarian aid, and widespread starvation as contributing factors to a much higher number of deaths.
“Armed conflicts have indirect health implications beyond the direct harm from violence,” wrote the authors. They estimate that the total number of deaths could approach 200,000 when including indirect causes such as reproductive, communicable, and noncommunicable diseases. The experts point out that in recent conflicts, indirect deaths have ranged from three to 15 times the number of direct deaths. Applying a conservative estimate of four indirect deaths per one direct death to the reported figures, the study suggests a possible death toll of up to 186,000.
This projected toll represents approximately 7%-9% of Gaza’s population, which was estimated at over 2.3 million people in 2022. The destruction of Gaza’s healthcare system has had devastating consequences. Hospitals and medical facilities have been obliterated, severely limiting access to medical care for those in need. The blockade on humanitarian aid has exacerbated these conditions, leading to shortages of medical supplies, food, and clean water.
The study emphasizes that even if the conflict were to end immediately, the indirect deaths would continue to rise due to the prolonged impact on healthcare and living conditions. An untold number of Palestinians in Gaza have already died because they were unable to receive medical care, suffered from malnutrition, or were affected by the overall collapse of public infrastructure.
The authors also highlight the difficulty in accurately counting the dead in such a chaotic environment. U.S. President Joe Biden expressed skepticism about the reported death counts early in the conflict, and the U.N. revised its civilian death toll in May. However, the study’s authors argue that these figures are likely still underestimates. They note that thousands of Palestinians may remain buried under rubble from Israeli airstrikes. According to the U.N., by February 2024, 35% of buildings in Gaza had been destroyed, suggesting a substantial number of bodies could still be undiscovered.
Israeli intelligence services, the World Health Organization, and the United Nations have all agreed that claims of data fabrication by Palestinian authorities in Gaza are “implausible.” The study reiterates this point, dismissing allegations that the Gaza Health Ministry’s figures are inflated.
Political analyst Omar Baddar noted that statements from top-level Israeli officials regarding their intent to “thin the population” of Gaza lend credibility to the high death toll estimates. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made remarks about reducing the population, which align with the grim projections provided by the Lancet study.
Additional reports have supported the findings of widespread and systematic violence. The Israeli news outlet +972 Magazine published interviews with six Israeli soldiers who described the routine execution of Palestinian civilians and the systematic policy of setting Palestinian homes on fire after occupying them.
The study calls for an immediate and urgent ceasefire in Gaza, accompanied by measures to distribute medical supplies, food, clean water, and other essential resources. “At the same time, there is a need to record the scale and nature of suffering in this conflict,” the authors wrote. “Documenting the true scale is crucial for ensuring historical accountability and acknowledging the full cost of the war.”
Jordan Atwood is a dynamic War and Politics Reporter known for his incisive analysis and comprehensive coverage of international conflicts and political landscapes. His work is driven by a commitment to uncovering the truth and providing a clear, informed understanding of complex geopolitical events. Jordan's reporting not only captures the realities of war but also delves into the political strategies and implications behind them, making his work essential for those seeking a deeper understanding of world affairs.
The Gaza Death Toll Is Likely Multiples Higher Than Commonly Reported – OpEd
Bombardment in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip. Photo Credit: UNICEF/Eyad El Baba
By Adam Dick
Last month, I wrote about how the death toll from Israel’s war in Gaza may be significantly higher than the commonly cited estimate that has lately been stuck at under 40,000 individuals. A Friday article at The Lancet medical journal makes the case that the death toll, conservatively estimated, may be more than four times higher — even if the war were to end immediately.
The article’s authors Rasha Khatib, Martin McKee, and Salim Yusuf note in reaching their conclusion:
“Armed conflicts have indirect health implications beyond the direct harm from violence. Even if the conflict ends immediately, there will continue to be many indirect deaths in the coming months and years from causes such as reproductive, communicable, and non-communicable diseases. The total death toll is expected to be large given the intensity of this conflict; destroyed health-care infrastructure; severe shortages of food, water, and shelter; the population’s inability to flee to safe places; and the loss of funding to UNRWA, one of the very few humanitarian organisations still active in the Gaza Strip.
“In recent conflicts, such indirect deaths range from three to 15 times the number of direct deaths. Applying a conservative estimate of four indirect deaths per one direct death to the 37,396 deaths reported, it is not implausible to estimate that up to 186,000 or even more deaths could be attributable to the current conflict in Gaza. Using the 2022 Gaza Strip population estimate of 2,375,259, this would translate to 7.9% of the total population in the Gaza Strip.“
Of course, as long as the military action and blockade on Gaza continues, the number of deaths will keep increasing. Also, the suffering will continue for Gazans who manage to survive while being subjected to serious physical and mental injuries.
- This article was published at RonPaul Institute
Adam Dick
Adam Dick is a Senior Fellow at Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity. Adam worked from 2003 through 2013 as a legislative aide for Rep. Ron Paul. Previously, he was a member of the Wisconsin State Board of Elections, a co-manager of Ed Thompson's 2002 Wisconsin governor campaign, and a lawyer in New York and Connecticut.
FAIR AND BALANCED
UK
Jewish Board of Deputies writes to The Lancet about unsubstantiated claims on Gaza death toll published in letter
July 10th, 2024
We are outraged that a prestigious journal such as the Lancet has published a non-peer reviewed letter (Counting the Dead in Gaza: difficult but essential) making entirely unsubstantiated claims regarding the death toll in Gaza.
Our letter to The Lancet editor in full:
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