Turbulence Ahead: The Maintenance Workforce Dilemma Threatening the Future of US Airpower

Joshua Morales

July 29, 2024

Amidst escalating global tensions and growing challenges in the civilian aviation sector, an aircraft maintenance shortage has emerged nationally, posing a significant threat to Air Force operational readiness. Recent incidents in the commercial airline industry, attributed to maintenance deficiencies, warn of the potential risks of not addressing maintenance recruitment and retention efforts. For the Air Force, the implications extend beyond flight delays to the possibility of compromised missions and military defeat—especially in a prolonged conflict where keeping aircraft flying will be a constant challenge. To combat this, the Air Force should implement aggressive recruitment campaigns and innovative retention strategies to ensure a robust pipeline of skilled aircraft maintainers.

To address the maintenance workforce issues, targeted recruitment campaigns in high schools and technical schools should emphasize career opportunities and benefits. Streamlined pathways for obtaining certifications such as an Airframe and Powerplant (A&P) can make the Air Force more appealing in an increasingly competitive hiring field. Tying these certification programs to service commitments can ensure a steady influx of qualified maintainers. Retention incentives similar to those offered to pilots can reflect the value of maintainers. Additionally, implementing programs to enhance cognitive and behavioral health will address stress and burnout from increased work demands. By investing in recruitment, certification, retention, and well-being, the Air Force can strengthen its current workforce while preparing it for future challenges.

The Challenge

While the Air Force has taken steps to resolve the pilot shortage, the less visible yet equally pressing issue of aircraft maintainer recruitment looms. A 2019 study by the Government Accountability Office shed light on the decline of experienced mechanics. The Air Force took action with a focus on retention efforts and the promotion of younger maintainers to supervisory ranks. Col Hawkins, chief of the Air Force’s Military Policy Division, stated that the service was focused on promotion-focused moves to include the “up or out” rule change, to ensure experienced positions stay filled. This correction, while necessary, had the unintentional consequences of leaving the entry-level pipeline smaller and struggling to keep up as the recruitment of new maintainers has failed to keep pace with the needs of the service. Additionally, last year, the Air Force missed their recruiting goals for the first time in 25 years. These recruitment shortfalls, paired with a shrinking workforce, lead to concerns in aviation maintenance, where experience is just as critical as recruitment numbers.

The current recruitment challenge threatens to nullify corrective efforts by the Air Force to address the experience shortage. Existing personnel face increased workloads, longer hours, and stagnation in career progression as the Air Force aims to increase the number of entry-level maintainers. This may already be happening as promotion rates continue to drop to historically low levels. The increased workload and lack of career progression have forced experienced maintainers to leave the Air Force for civilian aviation careers, where bonuses and a predictable work schedule are more appealing. In 2023, the Air Force was short 1,800 maintainers, and recruiters knew the toll it would take on the workforce. A verified email from the former Air Force recruiting boss, Maj. Gen Ed Thomas, sent to recruiters, stated that “Airmen will almost certainly be asked to work longer hours, cover more shifts and make sacrifices in their personal lives to meet the mission demands…”

Fast forward to today, and the shortage has shrunk to 500 maintainers. However, the newest influx of recruits is still years away from fulfilling the experience void the maintenance field is suffering. Chief of Staff Gen. David Alvin stated, “We’re recruiting ok, but it takes a while to build a 3-level into a 5-and 7-level”. The push and pull of the workforce harms retention and morale as the Air Force’s shortage of maintainers creates an increased workload for the ones that remain. While the Air Force has exceeded its recruiting goals for maintainers for the current fiscal year by 60, the workforce demands will remain as experienced personnel will be required to train them. The recruiting crisis fix might lead to a retention crisis, although the Air Force seems to have planned for it, as 17 career fields eligible for a reenlistment bonus are maintenance-related. This leaves the Air Force in a constant balancing act of optimizing a workforce equipped to service today’s aging fleet while preparing an inexperienced workforce to transition to the more technologically advanced fleet of tomorrow.

The increased demands of the maintenance field might place the Air Force on a bumpy ride as maintenance units continue to deal with manning shortages, inexperience, and career stagnations. And this is all while the Force is still figuring out how to adjust to fulfill deployment requirements for the Force Generation cycle being implemented across the service. The Air Force experienced the highest number of maintenance mishaps in FY2023, with 21 total mishaps, which nearly doubled the previous year’s total. To address this alarming spike, the Air Education Training Command recently implemented a checklist requirement for all of its maintainers to fill out prior to performing a new task to help assess risk by identifying human factors such as inexperience or stress level.

The Civilian Angle

The challenges faced by the Air Force are not isolated to the military sector; they echo troubling issues in the commercial aviation industry. A recent industry report shows that the aircraft maintenance shortfall has reached a critical point and will worsen over the next ten years as the imbalance between supply and demand continues. This will lead to fewer flights, more delays and cancellations, or major aircraft mishaps. In Boeing’s Pilot and Technician Outlook, it said it will need 610,000 new aviation technicians globally through 2034. In the United States, the Aviation Technician Education Council (ATEC) stated that by 2027, the gap will be around 43,000—27% of the total aviation maintenance workforce. To add to these troubling forecasts, a separate report states that 80% of the existing workforce is set to retire in the next five to six years, and 27% of all Federal Aviation Administration-certified Airframe and Propulsion (A&P) mechanics are at least 64 years of age. These forecasts highlight the global challenge and call for industry-wide action to address the shortfall. If left unchecked, the shortage of aircraft mechanics could significantly undermine the integrity of the aviation industry.

The recent reports addressing maintenance experience and retention issues by the civilian industry should come as no surprise, as anyone who has flown recently knows the shortage of aircraft maintainers has led to delays, cancellations, and major mishaps. Imagine being a passenger on a flight and a door panel comes off mid-flight or a nose wheel falls off while taxiing. While the investigation results in both incidents have yet to be released, initial investigations show both incidents occurred due to maintenance issues. The increased number of aircraft maintenance mishaps has caused a spotlight on aviation industry giants such as Boeing. While these incidents may be isolated, the likelihood of them resulting from a systematic shortfall in maintenance proficiency, experience, and recruitment seems more probable. These embarrassing and nearly catastrophic incidents have impacted not only the public faith in civilian aviation but also the projection of soft power from the American industrial industry. Society relies on the trust and safety of commercial air travel, so it should not be surprising that industry leaders and stakeholders are innovating modern solutions to navigate the shortage.

The combination of troubling forecasts and maintenance-related incidents has led to an aggressive civilian industry push to fill its maintenance ranks. This leaves the Air Force competing with industry giants like Boeing and educational institutions for entry-level mechanics. The FAA recently awarded $13.5 million to 32 academic institutions to attract students to aircraft maintenance. Grant recipients can fund educational programs that offer scholarships or apprenticeships that focus on promoting careers in aviation maintenance, especially those in economically disadvantaged areas. For example, one grant recipient received a $500,000 grant to increase apprenticeships at its maintenance facilities to expand opportunities for female technicians, transitioning military personnel, high school students, and underrepresented minority groups. Industry leaders like Constant Aviation specifically target experienced military maintenance workers, offering $15K signing bonuses for mechanics with prior military maintenance experience. These efforts not only make it harder to recruit new entry-level mechanics but also create challenges in retaining the experienced mechanics that the Air Force has already trained. Society needs experienced maintenance workers, and industry leaders have responded by driving innovative initiatives aimed at recruiting, educating, and retaining them.

Next Steps

The consequences for the civil aviation field will be public scrutiny and monetary, but the mirrored shortage of Air Force maintainers risks something more valuable: military effectiveness. Take the hundreds of air refueling and recon jets that were grounded early last year after it was discovered that maintenance installed incorrect pins that could cause an aircraft’s vertical stabilizer to fall off. The downstream effect of grounding an entire air refueling fleet is enormous and one that the nation cannot afford during conflict. Consider the flight-testing phase of the B-29 during WWII when America’s industrial strength was at its peak. In Freedoms Forge, How American Business Produced Victory in World War II, the historian Arthur Herman documents how maintenance experience and issues still contributed to approximately 28 B-29 crashes, cost the lives of dozens of crew members, maintenance workers, and civilians, and delayed the delivery of the most advanced bomber of its time, the one that ended the war, by four years. The industry and military strength during WWII withstood the costly delay of the B-29 Superfortress. Still, modern issues such as the delivery of  KC-46A to the DOD are alarming, considering the United States is currently in a competition phase with China. The implications of not addressing the maintenance workforce issues are clear. The Air Force risks operational readiness, accident rates, and catastrophic failures, all while weakening the United States’ strategic posture in the era of Great Power Competition.

The Air Force, while proactive in addressing its pilot shortage and experience gap, should now rally to address similar issues in the maintenance field. The potential fallout may even be coming to the surface as the Air Force struggles to meet its mission-capable rate goals. To address the shortage and experience issues, the Air Force should implement several solutions, the sooner the better.

Service leaders could benefit from examining external efforts by the civil air industry in its recruitment and retention practices and internal efforts, such as the Rated Officer Retention Program, which aims to retain experienced pilots with monetary and non-monetary options, such as an assignment preference option. In a press release, Maj. Gen Adrian Spain, the training and readiness director at Air Force headquarters, said, “the requirement to preserve critical skills in our Air Force has never been more important.” While these words were meant to address pilots, perhaps a similar message could go a long way with the maintenance community.

As a senior maintainer, I have experienced firsthand the challenges we face. Maintainers are needed, so rather than asking them to complete a checklist to perform another checklist, better avenues should be established to communicate the value and needs of the maintainer. Investment in maintenance proficiency should be started as early as possible to show how maintainers are valued and to obtain a higher return on investment when those maintainers reach the Non-Commissioned Officer tier. Certification streamlines should be adopted service-wide so that maintainers can obtain their Airframe and Powerplant (A&P) licenses early in their service commitments. Industry giants are competing to fill their ranks with licensed mechanics by offering higher wages. A competitive trend that is likely to continue, the Air Force could capitalize on a streamlined process while requiring a service commitment once it is obtained. Drawing from my time spent in Special Operations, I can attest to the benefits of initiatives like the Physiological Performance Program implemented by USSOCOM, aimed at improving the cognitive and behavioral performance of their operators. Factors such as managing stress, anxiety, and sleep can all be utilized to benefit the health and safety of one of the Air Force’s most demanding career fields – a field that has been tied to having one of the highest suicide rates in the service.

Conclusion

Air Power is built on the backs of aircraft mechanics. While the glamour goes to the pilots and operators who parachute out of them, it is the mechanic that ensures every aircraft’s reliability and readiness for the skies. As aviation technology advances, the need for experienced aircraft mechanics remains constant. Though often overlooked, the mechanic should be recognized and supported as a critical piece in military readiness.

Failure to act decisively on this issue could result in a fleet less prepared for the demands of modern warfare, potentially eroding the United States’ long-standing dominance of the skies. Policies addressing the issue must not only enhance one side of the workforce. The approach should not only boost recruitment numbers but also provide modernized support and recognition for the experienced aircraft mechanics who serve as the backbone of military readiness. Their role, often overshadowed, is crucial for maintaining the reliability and lethality of American Airpower.

SMSgt Joshua Morales is a Master’s student in the Defense Analysis program at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, CA. He is also a USAF Crew Chief with over 15 years of aircraft maintenance experience across military, civilian, and contractor workforces.

Image: Senior Airman Seth Watson