Democrats lead by double digits in Arizona, Nevada Senate races: Fox News poll

Tara Suter
Thu, August 29, 2024 

Democrats are leading by double digits in Senate races in Nevada and Arizona, two battleground states that could be key to control of the upper chamber, according to new polls from Fox News.

Rep. Ruben Gallego, the Democratic Senate nominee in Arizona, is leading Republican candidate Kari Lake by 15 points, according to the poll. In Nevada, Sen. Jacky Rosen, the incumbent Democrat, is leading Republican Sam Brown by 14 points.

While the Democrats in Arizona and Nevada have opened significant gaps in their races, others in the party are still seen as being vulnerable in November, notably Sen. Jon Tester in Montana and Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio.

Democrats barely won the majority in the last election, and are expected to lose Sen. Joe Manchin’s seat in West Virginia, giving them little room for error in other battleground states.

Democrats in swing states have seen increased enthusiasm and energy in the wake of Vice President Harris launching her run for the presidency after President Biden left the race in late July.

The Fox News polls also found Harris leading former President Trump in Nevada by 2 points and Arizona by 1 point. Fox News found close races across key Sun Belt states, with leads in either direction falling within the margin of error.

Harris now has a slight edge on Trump according to most election forecasters, and has opened a 4.4 percent lead in an average of national polls from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ. Polls are yet to reflect what is often a bounce after the party’s convention.

Both Nevada and Arizona were seen as tipping toward Trump when Biden was still in the race, but are now rated as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report.

The Arizona and Nevada polls were taken Aug. 23-26, with 1,014 registered voters from Arizona and 1,026 registered voters from Nevada; both states have a margin of sampling error of 3 percentage points.


Abortion-rights ballot initiatives backed by at least half of Republicans in Arizona, Nevada

Sarah Fortinsky
Wed, August 28, 2024


At least half of Republican voters in Arizona and Nevada say they would vote for ballot initiatives this November that protect abortion access, according to a pair of Fox News polls released Wednesday.

Fifty percent of Republicans in Arizona and 54 percent of Republicans in Nevada say they would vote for their states’ proposed constitutional amendments to “establish the right to an abortion up until fetal viability or when necessary to protect the patient’s health,” according to the polls, which were conducted Aug. 23-26.

The initiatives are broadly supported across demographics groups in both key battleground states.

Overall, 73 percent of Arizona voters say they back the proposed state amendment, including 95 percent of Democrats and 76 percent of independents. The amendment is backed by 96 percent of self-described liberals, 81 percent of self-described moderates and 52 percent of self-described conservatives.

The only Arizona demographic listed as having less than 50 percent backing the initiative is “white evangelicals,” 49 percent of whom support the amendment. Even among those who “strongly disapprove” of President Biden, 51 percent support the initiative.

Similar trends are evident in Nevada.

Overall, 75 percent of Nevada voters back the ballot initiative, including 95 percent of Democrats and 76 percent of independents. It is also backed by 96 percent of liberal voters, 81 percent of moderates and 57 percent of conservatives.

A majority (58 percent) of white evangelical voters in Nevada back the initiative, as do 54 percent of those who “strongly disapprove” of Biden.

Democrats hope abortion remains a top issue for voters, who say they largely trust the Democratic Party on the issue more than they do the Republicans.

Since Roe v. Wade was overturned in 2022, 22 GOP-led states have seen anti-abortion laws take effect that ban or restrict abortion access beyond the standard held for nearly half a century. Several states have seen initiatives led by citizen activists to put the issue on the ballot, letting residents vote directly on the issue during the general election.

The Arizona poll included 1,014 registered voters. The Nevada poll included 1,026 registered voters. Both had a 3-point margin of error.

Updated Aug. 29 at 1:40 p.m. EDT


Harris leading Trump by 2 points in battleground states: Poll

Miranda Nazzaro
Thu, August 29, 2024

Vice President Harris is leading former President Trump by an average of 2 points across seven battleground states as the White House race remains tight, according to polling released Thursday.

A Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll found Harris has a 2-point average edge over Trump when it comes to registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. She is ahead by 1 point, within the poll’s margin of error, when it is restricted to likely voters in these states.

The lead was strongest in Wisconsin, where she edged out Trump by 8 points among registered voters, followed by Nevada and Pennsylvania, where she led by 4 points in each, pollsters said. The two were deadlocked in Arizona with 48 percent each, while Harris led by 2 points in Georgia and North Carolina each, and in Michigan by 3 points.

Harris’s lead in North Carolina is especially notable, as pollsters point out no Democratic presidential candidate has won there since former President Obama in 2008. The gains Harris has seen in the Tar Heel State prompted the nonpartisan group Cook Political Report to shift the state’s presidential race from “lean Republican” to “toss up.”

Since replacing President Biden atop the Democratic presidential ticket last month, Harris has narrowed the gap with Trump, posing a risk to the former president’s healthy lead over Biden when he was still in the race.

The Thursday poll follows a Fox News survey that found Harris similarly making gains in the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia and Nevada. The Trump campaign later ripped Fox News over the polling.

The former president has largely dismissed the notion that Harris has crept up in the polls.

The poll also suggested the selection of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) as Harris’s running mate had a more positive impact on increasing swing-state voters for the Democratic ticket, compared to the selection of Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) and its effect on the Republican ticket.

About 30 percent of swing-state voters said Harris’s vice president selection of Walz made them more likely to vote for her, while only 23 percent said the same about Vance last month after Trump tapped him as his running mate, per pollsters.

The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll was conducted among 4,962 registered voters in seven swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The statistical margin of error is plus or minus 1 percentage point across the seven states; 3 percentage points in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania; 4 percentage points in Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, and 5 percentage points in Nevada, pollsters said.

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