The assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh raises the potential for continued violent confrontations in the Middle East.
on August 6, 2024
By Editorial Board,
Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (center) attended the funeral for Ismail Haniyeh, top leader of Hamas, in Tehran, Iran on August 1. (Beit-e Rahbari [Office of Ayatollah Khamenei], ©Getty via Kyodo)Ismail Haniyeh was killed while on a visit to Iran. He was the political leader of the Islamic fundamentalist organization Hamas, the Middle East group responsible for a large-scale surprise attack on Israel in October 2023.
Israel has not admitted to carrying out the assassination. However, Hamas and Iran, its chief supporter, have blamed Israel and promised to avenge Haniyeh's death.
Haniyeh was based in Qatar, although he was visiting Tehran to attend the inauguration of Iran's new president. Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also said it was "Iran's duty to revenge his (Haniyeh's) blood."
Additionally, a senior leader of Hezbollah was recently killed during an Israeli attack. Hezbollah is a Lebanon-based radical militia with close ties to Iran. Furthermore, the Israeli military also recently announced that the head of Hamas's military wing was killed in an attack it had carried out in July. Therefore, Iran and pro-Iran militias throughout the Middle East are expected to intensify their efforts to retaliate against Israel.
Hamas' political leader Ismail Haniyeh addresses supporters in Gaza City in March 2014 (©Reuters/Kyodo News)
Destabilizing Instincts of 'Revenge'
If Israel did kill Haniyeh, then Israel probably held him responsible for the massive terror attack in October 2023. In that case, the government of Benjamin Netanyahu likely determined that Hamas is a terrorist organization unable to become a partner in negotiations and therefore must be destroyed. Fighting between Israel and Iran, along with pro-Iran militant groups, seems almost certain to intensify in the days to come.
There was a similar situation in April following the Iranian missile attack. As in April, all efforts are required to avoid an escalation of these tensions into a "Fifth Middle East War."
Continued violent confrontations, even without a major conflict, would still hugely impact the entire world. That includes Japan. After all, Japan relies upon the Middle East region for over 90% of its crude oil imports.
An emergency meeting of the Security Council was held following the assassination of the supreme leader of the Islamic organization Hamas on July 31 at the United Nations Headquarters in New York (©Kyodo News)
International Efforts to Manage the Crisis
There is a risk that this situation could develop into a global energy security emergency. That could impact economic conditions worldwide, and even the safety of Japanese nationals in the region.
Depending on how the situation develops, further precautions may be necessary. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's Cabinet should not hesitate to hold National Security Council (NSC) meetings and review necessary preparations for the evacuation of Japanese nationals as required. Japanese companies too should ensure their readiness regarding crisis management.
The foreign ministry of Iran has charged that the United States, which supports Israel, is also responsible for Haniyeh's assassination. However, this is pointless venting of anger. All the parties should refrain from such behavior to avoid escalating the present explosive situation.
We earnestly hope that Japan will work with various Western nations and the United Nations to encourage both Israel and Iran to exercise restraint.
There is a risk that this situation could develop into a global energy security emergency. That could impact economic conditions worldwide, and even the safety of Japanese nationals in the region.
Depending on how the situation develops, further precautions may be necessary. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's Cabinet should not hesitate to hold National Security Council (NSC) meetings and review necessary preparations for the evacuation of Japanese nationals as required. Japanese companies too should ensure their readiness regarding crisis management.
The foreign ministry of Iran has charged that the United States, which supports Israel, is also responsible for Haniyeh's assassination. However, this is pointless venting of anger. All the parties should refrain from such behavior to avoid escalating the present explosive situation.
We earnestly hope that Japan will work with various Western nations and the United Nations to encourage both Israel and Iran to exercise restraint.
Boys hold up a photo of Hamas Leader Haniyeh on July 31 in Gaza City, northern Gaza Strip. (©Getty Images via Kyodo)
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