Global Offshore Wind Installations Projected to Exceed 520 GW by 2040
- Global offshore wind installations are expected to surpass 520 GW by 2040, driven by strong growth in Europe and Asia.
- Floating wind technology will play a crucial role in expanding offshore wind capacity, particularly in Europe.
- Supply chain constraints pose challenges to the growth of both bottom-fixed and floating offshore wind, necessitating increased government support.
Global offshore wind projects have faced significant headwinds due to recent inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions, exemplified by postponed permitting processes, delayed auctions and slow supply chain build-ups. Despite these challenges, the sector staved off challenges in 2023, seeing a 7% increase in new capacity additions compared to the previous year. This momentum is expected to accelerate this year, with new capacity additions expected to grow by 9% to over 11 gigawatts (GW) by the end of the year. Rystad Energy expects this growth for the offshore wind sector to continue at a steady pace, and estimates that global installations, excluding mainland China, will exceed 520 GW by 2040.
Europe will play a crucial role in this growth, relying heavily on floating wind to meet ambitious national targets and make the most of its abundant offshore resources. By 2040, the continent is expected to account for more than 70% of global floating wind installations. Although some project delays beyond 2030 are anticipated, there will likely be a strong push to accelerate deployment. As a result, floating wind capacity is projected to approach 90 GW by 2040, with the UK, France and Portugal at the forefront of development. Asia will also be key in advancing floating wind as a mature technology, and the region – excluding mainland China – is expected to capture a share of 20% of global installations by 2040.
While the floating wind sector has seen a recent rise in project announcements, it currently grapples with supply chain constraints similar to the bottom-fixed segment, where wind turbines are installed on fixed foundations in shallow waters. These challenges could hinder the advancement of floating wind technology in the short term, with capacity estimates of less than 7 GW by 2030. To overcome these hurdles, increased government support is crucial.
The global offshore wind sector is experiencing robust growth, fueled by increased investment and auction activity. However, supply chain bottlenecks present significant challenges to the industry's further expansion. While ambitious targets boost investor confidence, it is crucial to address logistical issues to ensure that offshore wind can successfully take a key role in the energy transition. This will not only help the technology mature, but also foster a supportive ecosystem that inspires investor reliance,
Petra Manuel, Senior Offshore Wind Analyst, Rystad Energy
Learn more with Rystad Energy’s Offshore Wind Solution.
In the bottom-fixed market, we expect the UK, Germany and the Netherlands to emerge as the three dominant players. The countries’ proximity to the North Sea and extensive maritime areas provides a strong foundation for success in offshore wind, bolstered by their installation and net-zero targets. Together, these three countries are projected to account for a total of 150 GW of installed capacity by 2040, followed by the US with less than 40 GW. The future of the US market is contingent on its political landscape, with concerns that if presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump were to win, his administration might significantly impede offshore wind development.
Between 2025 and 2030, the Americas, led by the US, will experience significant growth, beginning with close to 2 GW of installed capacity in 2025. Asia, excluding mainland China, will follow, with 7 GW in 2025 and reaching nearly 28 GW by 2030, with Taiwan (China), South Korea and Vietnam emerging as major markets in the region. Europe is projected to have 41 GW of installed capacity by 2025 and more than 112 GW by 2030, driven by a steady stream of projects awarded through competitive auctions.
Looking ahead to between 2030 and 2035, an increase in growth is anticipated in Asia, excluding mainland China, followed by the Americas and Europe. During this period, Latin America, particularly Brazil and Colombia, is also expected to begin contributing to offshore wind capacity in the Americas.
Rystad Energy’s long-term forecast for the floating wind sector differs significantly from the upward trend observed in the bottom-fixed market. From 2025 to 2030, we anticipate that only Asia and Europe will be actively installing floating wind capacity. By 2030, we expect Europe to have installed almost 5 GW of floating wind, while Asia, excluding mainland China, is projected to add 2 GW.
In the following five-year period from 2030 to 2035, we foresee a substantial ramp-up in installations. Europe is expected to add 20 GW of floating wind capacity, and Asia, excluding mainland China, up to 5 GW. We do not expect floating wind projects to be installed in other regions until the period of 2035 to 2040 period, when we anticipate the technology to advance toward maturity. By 2040, we predict that Europe will have installed more than 65 GW of floating wind capacity, while installations in Asia, excluding mainland China, will have reached 17 GW.
Billions Pouring into U.S. Offshore Wind Despite Setbacks
The US has ambitious plans to significantly expand its offshore wind capacity, backed by substantial investments and government support.
As part of government plans for a green transition, the U.S. has been rapidly developing its renewable energy capacity in recent years. While several sectors have taken off, the offshore wind industry has faced several challenges in establishing wind farms off coasts around the U.S., largely due to financial issues in the wind sector and equipment failures. So, with massive financial incentives coming from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and other climate policies, will the U.S. be successful at establishing its offshore wind industry?
There are ambitious plans to grow the offshore wind capacity of the U.S. significantly in the coming years, with several international wind energy majors announcing investments in the sector. The U.S. is expected to invest around $65 billion in offshore wind by the end of the decade, which would support the creation of approximately 56,000 jobs. There is around 56 GW of wind energy currently under development across 37 leases, which could power around 22 million homes. Around 14 GW of this offshore wind capacity is expected to be up and running by 2030, 30 GW by 2033 and 40 GW by 2035. Several states have plans to develop offshore wind farms, including New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, and Virginia.
In addition to state investment in the wind sector, since the creation of the IRA climate policy, the U.S. has attracted high levels of foreign investment in the sector. Norway’s Equinor is developing the two-part Empire Wind project in New York State, aimed at establishing 810 MW of power in phase one and 1,260 MW in phase two. Empire Wind 1 will be the first offshore wind project to connect to the New York City grid. Equinor is also investing in the South Brooklyn Marine Terminal, to establish New York’s first offshore wind hub. The Norwegian firm was also selected in the first-ever U.S. floating offshore wind auction to develop a 2 GW wind farm on the Outer Continental Shelf offshore California. Once operational, it could power as many as 1.7 million homes in the state.
The Danish wind turbine manufacturer Vestas will supply the equipment needed to run Equinor’s Empire Wind project. The firm already has a strong foothold in the U.S., having supplied much of the equipment for the country’s onshore wind farms. Josh Irwin, the Senior Vice President of Offshore Sales at Vestas North America, stated “Ensuring the long-term viability and sustainability of the U.S. offshore market relies heavily on the safe, timely and successful execution of the first wave of projects and this landmark project is a crucial step towards putting turbines in the water… We look forward to delivering an existing, reliable product and partnering with Equinor to help New York achieve its ambitious offshore wind energy goals and provide resilient wind energy to its communities”.
While there is strong interest in the development of the U.S.’s offshore wind capacity, the industry has faced several hurdles in getting projects off the ground. The U.S. was a slow adopter of offshore wind, developing just four wind farms with a total capacity of 242 MW by 2024. In 2023, inflation, supply chain issues, and other macroeconomic problems resulted in the cancellation or renegotiation of around half of all proposed offshore wind projects in the U.S., despite strong support from the government to develop the sector. There are also concerns lingering over the industry in the run-up to the presidential elections, as former President Donald Trump has said he will bring an end to offshore wind if elected.
The Danish wind operator Orsted, which was an early investor in U.S. offshore wind, announced this month that it would be delaying its 704 MW Revolution Wind project off Rhode Island and Connecticut from 2025 to 2026, following poor quarterly earnings results with $575 million in impairment losses. Orsted decided to delay the project because of soil contamination at an onshore transformer station.
Within the last month, the U.S. government also called off a planned Gulf of Mexico offshore wind auction due to a lack of investor interest. Meanwhile, construction on the country’s first major offshore wind project was halted because of a shattered turbine blade that led pieces of fibreglass to wash up on nearby beaches. Vineyard Wind, jointly by Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners and Iberdrola-controlled Avangrid, reported on 13th July that a blade on one of its 13.7MW GE Haliade X turbines was damaged, sending debris into Massachusetts' coastal waters, which led to beach closures. This has prompted greater scepticism around the potential for the U.S. offshore wind industry, with several challenges continuing to plague the sector.
As a late adopter of offshore wind, the U.S. has faced a plethora of challenges in developing its wind power capacity in recent years, despite the favourable climate policies and financial incentives in place. Rising inflation and other economic issues, as well as supply chain disruptions, have interrupted development since the Covid-19 pandemic, challenges which were further exacerbated by the poor performance of several international wind majors and equipment failures. Now, with uncertainty surrounding the upcoming presidential elections, it is unlikely that the country’s offshore wind sector will thrive until greater stability is assured.
By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com
Regulatory Challenges Force Equinor to Halt Offshore Wind Project in Vietnam
Norway's state-controlled energy giant Equinor ASA (NYSE:EQNR) has abandoned plans to invest in Vietnam's offshore wind sector, dealing a significant blow to the country's green energy ambitions.
According to the World Bank, over the past couple of years, Vietnam has attracted plenty of interest in its clean energy sector thanks to the country's strong winds in shallow waters near coastal, densely populated areas. Unfortunately, recent political turbulence in the country has paralyzed regulatory reforms and discouraged investors. For instance, last year, Danish offshore wind giant Ørsted A/S (OTCPK:DNNGY) paused its multi-gigawatt offshore wind plans, again due to regulatory challenges.
"We have decided to discontinue our business development in Vietnam and to close our office in Hanoi," Magnus Frantzen Eidsvold, an Equinor spokesperson, said in an interview.
This marks the first time Equinor has abandoned offshore wind development; in contrast, the company has previously exited more than a dozen fossil fuel projects to focus on renewables and low-carbon systems.
Currently, Vietnam has no installed offshore wind capacity but plans to install wind farms for 6 gigawatts (GW) by 2030, equal to 4% of its planned capacity. The offshore wind push is part of the country's goal to cut reliance on coal generation and reach net zero carbon emissions by the middle of the century. The communist government is pushing to assign to state-owned companies the first pilot project on offshore wind, a move that investors are opposed to because the domestic sector does not have enough capacity.
Currently, 40% of the global population lives within 60 miles of the ocean, making offshore wind an attractive clean energy alternative. Unfortunately, in recent years, dozens of offshore wind projects around the world have been delayed or canceled as costs have skyrocketed and supply chain disruptions have swelled. Last year, Ørsted canceled its highly anticipated Ocean Wind 1 and Ocean Wind 2 projects in the U.S., citing rising interest rates, high inflation, and supply chain bottlenecks. The two projects would have supplied just over 2.2 gigawatts to the New Jersey grid--enough energy to power over a million homes.
By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com
Wind Turbine Blade Fails on GE Vernova Turbine at UK Dogger Bank Wind Farm
A blade on one of the wind turbines at the under-construction Dogger Bank wind farm off the coast of England failed yesterday, August 22. Details on the incident are sparse at this point and neither GE Vernova, manufacturer of the blade, nor SSE Renewables the spokesperson for the consortium behind the project are commenting.
This is the second failure of a blade at the UK wind farm although the companies blamed the prior one on a problem during installation. The wind farm however is also using the 13 MW GE Halidale-X turbines, the same manufacturing that confirmed a “manufacturing deviation,” causing a blade at Vineyard Wind 1, a U.S. offshore wind, to break apart in July.
SSE issued a brief statement saying “We are aware of a blade failure,” which it said occurred on an installed turbine at Dogger Bank A, which is located approximately 80 miles off the northern English coast. The company’s statement says there were no injuries at the time the damage was sustained and that it is working with the turbine manufacturer GE Vernova, which initiated an investigation.
A spokesperson for GE Vernova told The Maritime Executive today that the wind farm “experienced an isolated blade event that occurred during commissioning.”
It is unclear at this time if the blade fractured in a fashion similar to the one in the United States which was also undergoing commissioning when it broke. The U.S. blade broke with a small portion according to Avangrid which is developing the project falling into the ocean. Pieces of the blade and fiberglass began washing up on beaches in Massachusetts and then additional pieces of the blade broke off. More sections fell into the water, some of which sank and others were floating while additional pieces were caught on the foundation. U.S. regulators ordered all work stopped while an investigation got underway.
Vineyard Wind and GE Vernova recently reported that they had the approval to remove additional sections of the damaged blade. The operation was completed while they were also working on a recovery plan for the pieces on the tower and that sank.
GE Vernova told investors last month that it had determined the problem on the U.S. blade was a “manufacturing deviation” in the bonding of the blade during manufacture at its plant in Canada. They said it should have been caught by quality checks and they were instituting checks on all the blades from the facility. High-tech “crawlers” with cameras were being deployed into the blades at the Massachusetts wind farm while the company was reviewing all the imaging made of the blades during manufacturing.
GE Vernova declined to confirm any details about the blade that failed at the UK wind farm and if it came from the same manufacturing facility. Sources with knowledge of the situation stressed that safety is a top priority and that the company was starting an in-depth investigation while having also informed the appropriate authorities.
The May incident at the Dogger Bank wind farm was believed to be isolated to the individual blade and issues during the hoisting and installation. Work quickly resumed at the wind farm which is the first of three phases, each to have a capacity of 1.2 GW. Dogger Bank marked its first power generation in October 2023.
U.S. regulators last week approximately a month after the incident revised their order to permit the wind farm to resume the installation of towers and nacelles but the order does not enable further blade installation or power production at this time. Vineyard Wind started power generation early in 2024 and had become the largest operating U.S. offshore wind farm. Construction was proceeding on the project which is located 15 miles off the coast of Massachusetts with plans calling for a total of 62 wind turbines with a total capacity of 800 MW.
Naming & Delivery Ceremony of China’s 1st Two Offshore Wind Power SOVs Held
[By: Schulte Marine Concept
On 16 August 2024, the naming and delivery ceremony of the first two China-built offshore wind power SOVs (Service Operation Vessels) ‘ZHI ZHEN 100’ and ‘ZHI CHENG 60’ was held in Qidong, China. The two SOVs were delivered by Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. to Shanghai Electric Wind Power Group Co., Ltd., with Schulte Marine Concept (SMC) being responsible for plan approval and vessels’ construction and commissioning supervision.
Mr. Krzysztof Kozdron, Managing Director of SMC said: “We are very proud to have been part of this historic project. The two SOVs are the first offshore wind power operation and maintenance vessels built in China giving a testimony to the impressive capability and capacity of the shipbuilding industry in China. These state-of-the-art vessels will form a strong and reliable foundation in the operation and maintenance of the domestic distant offshore wind parks, while further promoting sustainable development of the Chinese offshore wind power generation industry.”
Basic design for the vessels was developed and provided by the Norwegian company Ulstein, detail design and production design were developed by Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. The ‘ZHI ZHEN 100’ has an overall length of 93.4 metres, a beam of 18 metres, a depth of 7.6 metres and can accommodate 100 persons on board, while the ‘ZHI CHENG 60’ has an overall length of 72.76 metres, a beam of 17.5 metres, a depth of 7 metres and is designed for a complement of 60 persons on board.
The ULSTEIN’s X-BOW® hull form concept featured by the vessels ensures exceptional performances in both calm seas and rough weather, including enhanced station keeping, wave
response, crew and technicians’ comfort and safety onboard while in high seas as well as stern-to-weather operations capability and capacity boosting vessels’ both ahead and astern operability.
Both SOVs are equipped with technologically advanced battery and DC electric propulsion system as well as high capability DP2 dynamic positioning system. Further, vessels are fitted with sophisticated walk-to-work motion compensated gangway, offshore crane and high-speed daughter craft, to ensure safe and efficient transfer of personnel and spares for wind turbines overhaul and components replacement.
Before delivery, the vessels were subject to a very rigorous and exhaustive commissioning program, covering specialized offshore trials formotion compensated gangway, offshore crane and DP system, including demanding Failure Mode and Effects Analysis tests. Both vessels have been registered with China Classification Society.
China is presently the global leader in offshore wind power generation, continuously developing its potential, the country aims to achieve a capacity of 55 GW by 2030.
The products and services herein described in this press release are not endorsed by The Maritime Executive.
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