Since the United States pulled their troops out of Afghanistan in 2021 there has been a noticeable lack of intelligence being produced out of that region compared to when there were boots on the ground.
ByRishi Singh
August 10, 2024
Since the United States pulled their troops out of Afghanistan in 2021 there has been a noticeable lack of intelligence being produced out of that region compared to when there were boots on the ground. The US now relies on the ‘Over the Horizon’ approach, focusing on drone strikes to target terror groups in Afghanistan, particularly ISIS – Khorasan (ISIS-K) However, while ISIS-K has been in the spotlight lately, there is a growing fear over the resurgence of Al-Qaeda. Naveen Khan paints a sobering picture regarding Al-Qaeda’s future in her recent article called “Core Al-Qaeda Poses a High Threat to the United States.” It highlights that today Al-Qaeda has access to resources and the freedom to operate that they had not had since pre 9/11. She even asserts that Al-Qaeda could have the operational capacity to strike the United States within 12 to 36 months.
Pakistan offers a unique opportunity for the United States to gain information and intelligence that it no longer has access to. On June 27th Defense Minister Khawaja Asif said that Tehreek-e-Taliban – Pakistan (TTP) hideouts in Afghanistan can be targeted under Operation Azm-e-Istehkam. This announcement comes after months of Pakistan trying to engage in talks with Afghanistan about ramping up counter terrorism efforts in Afghanistan, where Pakistan claims the TTP has used to plot attacks. Since the Taliban took control of Afghanistan the number of terrorism incidents has been increasing, see Figure 1 below.
Figure 1: According to GRID (GTTAC Research Incidents Database) from 2019 to June 2024
Figure 1 shows the number of terrorism incidents in Pakistan from 2019 through June 2024. The graph shows stable numbers of attacks in Pakistan in 2019 and 2020. However, following the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan there is a clear trend of increasing attacks in the region that could easily hit 800 incidents in 2024, around a 300% increase. The attacks have led Pakistan to accuse the Afghan Taliban of providing a safe haven for the TTP to launch and plan their attacks in Pakistan. Defense Minister Khawaja Asif says TTP hideouts in Afghanistan can be targeted under Operation Azm-e-Istehkam. While these operations have not yet started, it is imperative that the US supports Pakistan’s efforts as Al-Qaeda and ISIS-K have been free to operate. The United Nations (UN) recently released a report regarding the TTP on July 12th, “The Taliban do not conceive of TTP as a terrorist group: the bonds are close, and the debt owed to TTP significant,” The UN Security Council states the TTP has become the largest group that now operates freely in Afghanistan with around 6000-6500 fighters. Pakistan now faces an existential threat without having the proper resources to effectively deal with the threat at hand.
Pakistan needs to seek tangible support from other countries. However, neighboring superpowers like Russia and China may be unwilling to provide such assistance. They view the new Taliban regime as an opportunity rather than a threat to their national security. China sees the new regime as an opportunity to create new energy and mining projects while exploring investment options. Russia has played with the idea of removing the Taliban from their list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations and opening diplomatic relations with the Taliban government. This leaves the United States as the best option for support, especially when pitching the rising threat of ISIS-K. The increasing numbers of claimed ISIS-K attacks shown in Figure 2 are worrisome and have become more than just a regional threat.
Figure 2: According to GRID (GTTAC Research Incidents Database) from 2019 to June 2024
Figure 2 shows the recent trends associated with Islamic State in Pakistan and Afghanistan. The attacks shown in the figure are incidents that have been claimed by the two groups. It is important to note the increasing trend among ISIS – Khorasan (ISIS-K). ISIS was a group that was believed to have been largely defeated following western counter terrorism efforts in the Middle east and Western Asia. As the trends suggest, there has been a recent resurgence with more attacks being claimed including the deadly attack in Moscow on March 22 that killed 130 people and injured hundreds more. In 2024, a new ISIS faction was created known as Islamic State – Pakistan Province (ISIS-PP) that has already claimed four attacks. The safe haven the Taliban state has created in Afghanistan for terror groups has shown its effect not only regionally but globally as well.
Following the announcement of Operation Azm-e-Istehkam, the United States should seize the opportunity for more intelligence on top commanders of the different groups. With the over the horizon approach, decapitation has become the default method for their efforts. By obtaining more and timelier information it will benefit the United States’ efforts to limit the growth of ISIS-K and Al-Qaeda groups. The United States must remember the importance of preventative measures before history has a chance to repeat itself. The exchange of intelligence could provide the United States with the ability to better monitor the growing threats in the region as well as strengthen national security ties with Pakistan.
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