Top GOP pollster says Harris may deliver Dem trifecta
Image via screengrab / X
Image via screengrab / X
August 14, 2024
One Republican polling and messaging expert is warning his party that if current trends hold, Vice President Kamala Harris may end up not only winning the White House, but also delivering majorities for Democrats in both chambers of Congress.
In a recent CNBC interview with Squawk Box, pollster Frank Luntz — who NJ.com regarded as "the Nostradamus of pollsters" — remarked on the jarring shift in momentum for Democrats between President Joe Biden's late June debate with former President Donald Trump and the emergence of Harris as the Democratic Party's standard-bearer in November. Luntz, who routinely conducts focus groups of swing voters in battleground states, noted that Harris is particularly strong with so-called "double haters" who were not excited about the prospect of a 2020 rematch.
"She’s bringing out people who are not interested in voting for either Trump or Biden, so the entire electoral pool has changed and if it continues in this direction you have to start to consider Democrats winning the Senate and Democrats winning the House," Luntz said.
READ MORE: McConnell shares GOP's 'worst nightmare' scenario of a Harris-Walz White House
"She’s got intensity now. She’s got an intensity advantage. She’s got a demographic advantage and I haven’t seen anything like this happen in 30 days in my lifetime,” he added. “Now my groups are broken up by young women saying, ‘I’m not voting for [Trump] anymore.’"
Luntz's predictions of a Harris-Walz ticket paying off big for Democrats in down-ballot races were similar to those of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky), who urged Republicans to take the prospect of a crushing defeat in November more seriously. The Kentucky Republican told state lawmakers in his home city of Louisville that if Democrats take the White House, flip the House of Representatives and maintain their majority in the U.S. Senate, they could kill the filibuster and grant statehood to Washington, D.C. and Puerto Rico.
"That's four new Democratic senators in perpetuity," McConnell said. "If they get those two new states and pack the Supreme Court, they'll get what they want."
In his Squawk Box interview, Luntz said the momentum shift in Harris' favor could be enough to give her the advantage in close contests.
READ MORE: 'Out for blood': Undecided voters offer surprising reactions to Trump's Manhattan trial
"The people who are undecided have all collapsed towards Harris. The people who are ‘weak’ Trump have all collapsed towards undecided," he said. "There are issues, attributes and the condition of the country. The issues and the conditions favor Donald Trump. He should be winning this election. But the attributes are so much in Harris’ favor that he’s not."
Despite his personal preference for Republicans, Luntz has not held back when forecasting losses for the GOP. In early 2021, he correctly predicted that both of Georgia's Republican U.S. senators would lose their respective runoff elections on January 5 after noticing billboards attacking them in deep-red Georgia counties. Both Sens. Jon Ossoff (D-Georgia) and Raphael Warnock (D-Georgia) went on to be sworn in as Georgia's first unified Democratic U.S. Senate delegation in three decades.
Watch Luntz's segment below, or by clicking this link.
READ MORE: GOP strategist Frank Luntz confronts election denier: 'You're unwilling to see the evidence'
One Republican polling and messaging expert is warning his party that if current trends hold, Vice President Kamala Harris may end up not only winning the White House, but also delivering majorities for Democrats in both chambers of Congress.
In a recent CNBC interview with Squawk Box, pollster Frank Luntz — who NJ.com regarded as "the Nostradamus of pollsters" — remarked on the jarring shift in momentum for Democrats between President Joe Biden's late June debate with former President Donald Trump and the emergence of Harris as the Democratic Party's standard-bearer in November. Luntz, who routinely conducts focus groups of swing voters in battleground states, noted that Harris is particularly strong with so-called "double haters" who were not excited about the prospect of a 2020 rematch.
"She’s bringing out people who are not interested in voting for either Trump or Biden, so the entire electoral pool has changed and if it continues in this direction you have to start to consider Democrats winning the Senate and Democrats winning the House," Luntz said.
READ MORE: McConnell shares GOP's 'worst nightmare' scenario of a Harris-Walz White House
"She’s got intensity now. She’s got an intensity advantage. She’s got a demographic advantage and I haven’t seen anything like this happen in 30 days in my lifetime,” he added. “Now my groups are broken up by young women saying, ‘I’m not voting for [Trump] anymore.’"
Luntz's predictions of a Harris-Walz ticket paying off big for Democrats in down-ballot races were similar to those of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky), who urged Republicans to take the prospect of a crushing defeat in November more seriously. The Kentucky Republican told state lawmakers in his home city of Louisville that if Democrats take the White House, flip the House of Representatives and maintain their majority in the U.S. Senate, they could kill the filibuster and grant statehood to Washington, D.C. and Puerto Rico.
"That's four new Democratic senators in perpetuity," McConnell said. "If they get those two new states and pack the Supreme Court, they'll get what they want."
In his Squawk Box interview, Luntz said the momentum shift in Harris' favor could be enough to give her the advantage in close contests.
READ MORE: 'Out for blood': Undecided voters offer surprising reactions to Trump's Manhattan trial
"The people who are undecided have all collapsed towards Harris. The people who are ‘weak’ Trump have all collapsed towards undecided," he said. "There are issues, attributes and the condition of the country. The issues and the conditions favor Donald Trump. He should be winning this election. But the attributes are so much in Harris’ favor that he’s not."
Despite his personal preference for Republicans, Luntz has not held back when forecasting losses for the GOP. In early 2021, he correctly predicted that both of Georgia's Republican U.S. senators would lose their respective runoff elections on January 5 after noticing billboards attacking them in deep-red Georgia counties. Both Sens. Jon Ossoff (D-Georgia) and Raphael Warnock (D-Georgia) went on to be sworn in as Georgia's first unified Democratic U.S. Senate delegation in three decades.
Watch Luntz's segment below, or by clicking this link.
READ MORE: GOP strategist Frank Luntz confronts election denier: 'You're unwilling to see the evidence'
Ex-Bush strategist warns against top GOP pollster’s data: 'Wrong in nearly every election'
Maya Boddie, Alternet
August 25, 2024
Former President Donald Trump speaks at the New York Young Republican Club Gala at Cipriani Wall Street on December 09, 2023 in New York City. (Photo by Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)
Former President George W. Bush chief strategist Matthew Dowd issued an Americans a warning against any election 2024 data presented by longtime GOP pollster Frank Luntz after the ex-Fox News contributor predicted that Robert F. Kennedy (RFK) Jr. can help win the White House for Donald Trump.
Dowd on Saturday night wrote in a post published to X: "Please, please ignore anything Frank Luntz says... no matter if it is good or bad. he is a grifter who makes up most of his data. and has been wrong in nearly every election."
According to The Hill, Luntz told NewsNation's Leland Vittart this weekend "that while Kennedy’s poll numbers have dropped since Vice President Harris ascended to the top of the Democratic Party presidential ticket, his remaining supporters could provide enough backing to tip some swing-state results in Trump’s favor."
READ MORE: 'Trump should be quaking': Pollster’s inability to find women for focus group spells trouble for GOP
Kennedy, who ended his election bid Friday, followed the announcement with an endorsement for Trump.
“It’s probably worth about 1% for Trump and that 1% could be everything if it’s in the swing states," Luntz said. "In the end, the reason why Kennedy was drawing 10, 12, even as high as 14% is because he was taking votes away from Joe Biden. Joe Biden’s gone. Kamala Harris has replaced him, and [RFK’s] vote collapsed down to about 4 or 5% and what’s left is a Trump vote."
Earlier this month, CNN's senior data reporter Harry Enten reported that Harris is starting to win over Trump voters in battlegrouund states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
Maya Boddie, Alternet
August 25, 2024
Former President Donald Trump speaks at the New York Young Republican Club Gala at Cipriani Wall Street on December 09, 2023 in New York City. (Photo by Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)
Former President George W. Bush chief strategist Matthew Dowd issued an Americans a warning against any election 2024 data presented by longtime GOP pollster Frank Luntz after the ex-Fox News contributor predicted that Robert F. Kennedy (RFK) Jr. can help win the White House for Donald Trump.
Dowd on Saturday night wrote in a post published to X: "Please, please ignore anything Frank Luntz says... no matter if it is good or bad. he is a grifter who makes up most of his data. and has been wrong in nearly every election."
According to The Hill, Luntz told NewsNation's Leland Vittart this weekend "that while Kennedy’s poll numbers have dropped since Vice President Harris ascended to the top of the Democratic Party presidential ticket, his remaining supporters could provide enough backing to tip some swing-state results in Trump’s favor."
READ MORE: 'Trump should be quaking': Pollster’s inability to find women for focus group spells trouble for GOP
Kennedy, who ended his election bid Friday, followed the announcement with an endorsement for Trump.
“It’s probably worth about 1% for Trump and that 1% could be everything if it’s in the swing states," Luntz said. "In the end, the reason why Kennedy was drawing 10, 12, even as high as 14% is because he was taking votes away from Joe Biden. Joe Biden’s gone. Kamala Harris has replaced him, and [RFK’s] vote collapsed down to about 4 or 5% and what’s left is a Trump vote."
Earlier this month, CNN's senior data reporter Harry Enten reported that Harris is starting to win over Trump voters in battlegrouund states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
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