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US bets on Gaza cease-fire talks as assassinations tilt Mideast toward bigger war

Nahal Toosi, Erin Banco, Jonathan Lemire and Joe Gould
Wed, July 31, 2024 


The Biden administration is clinging to the stubbornly elusive goal of a cease-fire deal to end the fighting in Gaza, even as a pair of assassinations blamed on Israel may have undercut the effort and brought the Middle East closer to a full-on regional war.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin stressed to reporters on Wednesday that their main focus is still on diplomacy between Israel and the Hamas militant group, with Blinken casting it as key to bringing calm on other fronts.

“The best way to bring the temperature down everywhere, put us on a better path, is through a cease-fire in Gaza,” Blinken said in an interview in Singapore. “That will have, I think, important effects on other areas where you could see conflict — whether it’s in the north of Israel and Lebanon, whether it’s Iran, whether it’s in the Red Sea with the Houthis.”

The American officials’ remarks came as two killings in recent days have shaken up an already volatile region: that of Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut and Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Israel has claimed credit for the first assassination and is suspected in the second. The early Wednesday killing of Haniyeh in particular could affect the cease-fire talks because he was involved in the negotiations, and Iran has already vowed retribution.

The Biden team’s emphasis on the Gaza cease-fire talks underscores how much the U.S. is counting on those conversations as the linchpin to preventing a broader regional war — and that U.S. officials don’t appear to have a serious plan B. Options such as convincing Hamas leaders to surrender and go into exile have been floated but don’t appear realistic at the moment.

The negotiations between Israel and Hamas have faltered in recent weeks as both sides have asked for new concessions and amid a lack of trust that either will stick to the terms of what’s supposed to be a multi-phase deal.

A senior Biden administration official declined to describe U.S.-Israeli conversations about the Haniyeh strike, but acknowledged that when it comes to the Gaza cease-fire talks, “it did not make our jobs any easier.”

Senate Armed Services Chair Jack Reed (D-R.I.). questioned whether Israel — whose leaders, especially Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have at times appeared lukewarm about a cease-fire before destroying Hamas — are intentionally trying to undercut the talks given that Haniyeh was one of the negotiators.

“The concern is is this going to cause an escalation because in downtown Beirut they took somebody out, and in downtown Tehran they took someone out,” Reed said. “The question is what effect will it have on negotiations. I don’t think it will help it, I think it will set it back. That might be part of the logic of the attack on him too.”

Without some sort of truce, U.S. officials fear Israel and Hamas will ratchet up the violence, with Israel in particular deciding that the only way to eventually calm Gaza is through more fighting now.

That could lead to escalation by other groups that are already exchanging fire with Israel, including Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen, and pull the whole region into a conflagration. In particular, it could lead to direct battles between Israel and Iran.

In the months since Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel, which killed some 1,200 people, Israel has fought the Palestinian militants but also engaged in multiple rounds of talks with them about temporary truces and hostage releases, including one major successful effort.

The violence between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah forces in Lebanon has reached new heights in recent months, but the U.S. has pursued indirect talks on that front as well. That’s even though American officials believe that Hezbollah won’t back down in its faceoff with Israel until after Hamas agrees to a cease-fire with the Israelis.

An alleged Hezbollah strike that killed a dozen children at a soccer field in the Golan Heights has thrown a wrench on every front. That attack — which Hezbollah denied responsibility for — is what is thought to have led Israel to carry out the strike in Beirut against Shukr.

The U.S. perceived the strike in the Lebanese capital as a standard, proportional response for the killing of the children, according to two U.S. officials, although it was unclear how Hezbollah would respond. Like others, the officials were granted anonymity to discuss sensitive issues.

The attack in Iran could have far larger implications.

The White House did not receive a heads-up about it, one of the officials said. Blinken appeared to confirm this, saying, “this is something we were not aware of or involved in.” Israel has stayed silent on the strike, but U.S. officials have not yet received information that would suggest another player carried it out.

One obvious question is why Israel would take out Haniyeh now.


The assassination of the Hamas political leader will make intermediaries and hosts of Hamas feel “a bit like the rug is being pulled out from under them,” said Nathan Brown, a George Washington University professor who previously served as an adviser for the committee drafting the Palestinian constitution.

Israel still wants to move forward with a cease-fire deal with Hamas in the coming weeks, according to an Israeli official. The official added, however, that the momentum Israel and the U.S. gained at the beginning of July, when Hamas signaled it was ready to work toward finalizing a deal, has fallen off.

By mid-July, both sides were asking for additional concessions. The Israelis wanted to increase the number of live hostages that would be released under the pact. Hamas wanted Israel to agree to withdraw all of its forces from Gaza, not just from certain populated areas. The negotiating team met again in Rome last week, but did not make significant progress. More talks are expected this week, the senior administration official said.

While Israel stands by its public statements that it does not want to go to war with Iran, it sees the situation with Hezbollah — one of Iran’s most powerful proxies in the region — as one that will only continue to escalate. Israelis have been left feeling that the Shiite militia had “really crossed the line” with its strike that killed the children, the Israeli official said.

“You have a situation where each of the parties believes that in order to deter the other, they have to climb the ladder. And so where we are today with Hezbollah is a different place then where we were … six months ago,” the Israeli official said.

That sentiment matches some analysts’ observations that Israel may be operating on the theory that the best way to get Hamas and Hezbollah to back down and agree to pause hostilities is to demonstrate its strength.

This tactic is often called “escalate to deescalate.”

“Israel is saying by these strikes: We’d prefer to wind all this down diplomatically but if we cannot achieve our goals that way, we will escalate as we would prevail — and that you know we would,” said James Jeffrey, a former U.S. ambassador to Iraq, Turkey and Albania.

Netanyahu also has personal reasons to drag out the fighting.

The Israeli leader is under pressure from far-right figures critical to sustaining his governing coalition not to cede an inch to Hamas and to be more defiant against the Islamist regime in Tehran. Many U.S. officials also suspect that Netanyahu —who is facing corruption charges — feels that continuing the fighting is the best way for him to stay in power and out of jail.

Hamas-controlled health institutions say Israel has killed nearly 40,000 Palestinians in Gaza since Oct. 7; those numbers include militants and civilians.

But “there’s always a risk” in acts of escalation such as the strike against Haniyeh, said Alper Coşkun, former director general for international security affairs at the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs. “Hitting such a target in Tehran really pushes the limits.”

This is not the first time Israel has made a sensitive move against Iran since Oct. 7.

In April, it struck what Iran said was one of its diplomatic facilities in Damascus, Syria, killing several top Iranian military officials. Iran responded by launching hundreds of missiles and rockets at Israel — an unprecedented direct attack from Iran against Israel, not just via Iran’s proxies elsewhere in the region.

The U.S., Israel and some Arab states intercepted the vast majority of the projectiles, limiting the damage to Israel. Israel then carried a small counterstrike against Iran. But the faceoff was essentially contained.

Biden’s allies in Congress were scrambling Wednesday to make sense of the latest events. Reed confirmed that Gen. Erik Kurilla, the head of U.S. Central Command, was supposed to brief lawmakers on the Middle East on Wednesday but the gathering was postponed due to the assassinations.

Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.) was critical of the decision to assassinate Haniyeh. “It’s reinforcing the Netanyahu approach, which is to do everything his way without consultation with the U.S., yet expecting the U.S. to back him up with every decision he makes,” Welch said.

Hawkish Republicans, meanwhile, cheered Haniyeh’s death.

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), the Senate Intelligence Committee’s ranking member, said “Iran has no right to protest” because it has plotted to assassinate former President Donald Trump and Iranian dissidents.

“The world’s a better place with that guy gone,” Rubio said.

Matt Berg, Miles J. Herszenhorn and Paul McLeary contributed to this report.


Blinken says Gaza cease-fire is 'imperative' after killing of Hamas leader in Iran

Anders Hagstrom
Wed, July 31, 2024

Secretary of State Antony Blinken says it is "imperative" that there be a cease-fire in Gaza after the killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran.

Blinken made the comments while speaking at a forum in Singapore on Wednesday. His comments came just hours after Haniyeh was in Tehran for Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian's swearing-in on Tuesday. Pezeshkian was sworn in with chants of "Death to America, Israel."

"I have seen the reports. Nothing takes more importance than getting a cease fire. In the interest of putting things on a better path. We've been working since day one to stop[this war] from spreading," he said.

Iran has not provided any details on how Haniyeh was killed. The incident is under investigation.

HAMAS LEADER ISMAIL HANIYEH REPORTEDLY ASSASSINATED

Israel was immediately blamed for the assassination, but no party has taken responsibility for Haniyeh's death as of Wednesday morning.

IDF KILLS HEZBOLLAH COMMANDER BEHIND BRUTAL ATTACK ON CHILDREN'S SOCCER FIELD: OFFICIALS

"The fact that such a high-ranking Hamas leader was assassinated on Iranian soil was an added bonus for Israel particularly directly after he participated in the inauguration ceremony of the new Islamic Republic president," Lisa Daftari, Middle East analyst and editor-in-chief at The Foreign Desk, told Fox News.

"It sends a clear message that Israel does not differentiate between the Islamic Republic and its proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah," she added.

HARRIS SAYS ISRAEL HAS RIGHT TO DEFEND ITSELF AS IRAN, RUSSIAN AND LEBANON CONDEMN IDF STRIKE ON HEZBOLLAH

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the U.S. government would seek to ease tensions, but that it would help defend Israel if it were attacked.

Hamas said Haniyeh was killed "in a Zionist airstrike on his residence in Tehran after he participated in the inauguration of Iran’s new president."

"Hamas declares to the great Palestinian people and the people of the Arab and Islamic nations and all the free people of the world, brother leader Ismail Haniyeh a martyr," the statement said.

Haniyeh left the Gaza Strip five years ago and was living in exile in Qatar. The top Hamas leader in Gaza is Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind behind the Oct. 7 terror attack on Israel. He remains alive.

Fox News' Landon Mion and Reuters contributed to this report


Killing of Hamas political leader points to diverging paths for Israel, US on cease-fire

ELLEN KNICKMEYER
Updated Wed, July 31, 2024 

Hamas members hold a poster of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh during a protest to condemn his killing, at al-Bass Palestinian refugee camp, in the southern port city of Tyre, Lebanon, Wednesday, July 31, 2024. Haniyeh, Hamas' political chief in exile who landed on Israel's hit list after the militant group staged its surprise Oct. 7 attacks, was killed in an airstrike in the Iranian capital early Wednesday. 

(AP Photo/Mohammed Zaatari)

WASHINGTON (AP) — Israel's suspected killing of Hamas' political leader in the heart of Tehran, coming after a week in which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahupromised U.S. lawmakers he would continue his war against Hamas until “total victory,” points to an Israeli leader ever more openly at odds with Biden administration efforts to calm the region through diplomacy.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, speaking on an Asia trip, was left to tell reporters there that Americans had not been aware of or involved in the attack on Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, whose roles included overseeing Hamas' side in U.S.-led mediation to bring a cease-fire and release of hostages in the Gaza war.

The U.S. remains focused on a cease-fire in the 9-month-old Israeli war in Gaza “as the best way to bring the temperature down everywhere,” Blinken said after Haniyeh's killing.

The targeting, and timing, of the overnight strike may have all but destroyed U.S. hopes for now.

“I just don't see how a cease-fire is feasible right now with the assassination of the person you would have been negotiating with,” said Vali Nasr, a former U.S. diplomat now at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies.

If the expected cycles of retaliation and counter-retaliation ahead start unspooling as feared, Haniyeh's killing could mark the end of Biden administration's hopes of restraining escalatory actions as Israel targets what Netanyahu calls Iran's “axis of terror," in the wake of Hamas' Oct. 7 attacks in Israel.

And with the U.S. political campaign entering its final months, it will be more difficult for the Biden administration to break away — if it wants to — from an ally it is bound to through historical, security, economic and political ties.

The killing of Haniyeh, and another suspected Israeli strike on a senior Hezbollah leader in the Lebanese capital of Beirut hours earlier, came on the heels of Netanyahu's return home from a nearly weeklong trip to the U.S., his first foreign trip of the war.

The Biden administration had said it hoped to use the visit to overcome some of the remaining obstacles in negotiations for a cease-fire in Gaza and to free Israeli, American and other foreign hostages held by Hamas and other militants.

President Joe Biden has been Israel's most vital backer in the war, keeping up shipments of arms and other military aid while defending Israel against any international action over the deaths of more than 39,000 Palestinians in the Israeli offensive.

But Biden has also put his political weight behind efforts to secure the cease-fire and hostage release, including publicly declaring that the two sides had both agreed to a framework and urging them to seal the deal.

Netanyahu told a joint meeting of Congress during his visit that Israel was determined to win nothing less than “total victory” against Hamas. Asked directly by journalists on the point later, he said that Israel hoped for a cease-fire soon and was working for one.

Following the visit, Biden administration officials dodged questions about reports that Israel's far-right government had newly raised additional conditions for any cease-fire deals.

Haniyeh had been openly living in Doha, Qatar, for the months since the Oct. 7 attack. But he wasn't attacked until he was in Tehran for the inauguration of Iran’s president. Nasr said Iran will see it as a direct Israeli attack on its sovereignty, and respond.

“If you wanted to have a cease-fire, if Haniyeh was in your sights, you might have said, ’I’ll kill him in a few months. Not now,‴ said Nasr, who said it suggested overt undermining of cease-fire negotiations by Netanyahu.

Israel may have intended the strike in Tehran to increase pressure on Hamas to take the deal on a cease-fire and release of hostages in Gaza, said Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council.

Netanyahu’s far-right government says Israel is fighting in Gaza to destroy Iran-allied Hamas as a military and governing power there. Israel warns that it is also prepared to expand its fight further to include an offensive in Lebanon, if necessary to stop what have been near-daily exchanges of rocket fire between Lebanon-based Hezbollah and Israel.

Hezbollah is by far the most powerful of the Iran-allied groups in the Middle East. Analysts and diplomats warn of any such expansion of hostilities touching off uncontrollable conflicts throughout the region that would draw in the United States as Israel’s ally. The U.S., France and others have urged Israel and Iran and its allies to resolve tensions through negotiations.

In a letter to foreign diplomats made public Tuesday, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said that Israel “is not interested in all-out war,” but that the only way to avoid it would be to implement a 2006 U.N. resolution calling for a demilitarized zone along Israel’s border with Lebanon and an end of hostilities with Hezbollah.

U.S. national security adviser John Kirby, who earlier this week called fears of major escalation from the killing of the Hezbollah official in Beirut “exaggerated,” told reporters that the news of the more momentous strike on the Hamas leader in Tehran “doesn't help ... with the temperature going down in the region. We're obviously concerned."

At the same time, Kirby said, “We also haven't seen any indication...that this process has been completely torpedoed. We still believe that this is a worthy endeavor...and a deal can be had.” The U.S. had a team in the region Wednesday for negotiations, he said.

“We don't want to see an escalation. And everything we've been doing since the 7th of October has been trying to manage that risk," he said.

____

Associated Press writer Seung Min Kim contributed to this report.


US says it was not involved in top Hamas leader assassination

Brad Dress
Wed, July 31, 2024 

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the U.S. was not involved in the death of top Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed early Wednesday morning in an apparent assassination in Iran.

Blinken, who is on a multicountry trip to the Indo-Pacific, told Channel News Asia the U.S. was “not aware of or involved in” the assassination.

At at separate event Wednesday in Singapore, Blinken reiterated his support for a cease-fire and hostage release deal between Israel and Hamas.

“It’s profoundly in the interest of putting things in a better path,” he said of a deal. “We’ll continue to work at that every day.”

Blinken added it was difficult “to speculate” if the death of Haniyeh would complicate a potential cease-fire and hostage release deal, which aims to halt the fighting in Gaza and return the 116 hostages still held by Hamas.

Israel has not commented on the death of Haniyeh, who has been living in exile in Qatar for several years but was on a visit to Iran’s capitol of Tehran when a drone or rocket struck his building, killing him and his bodyguard, according to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Iran and Hamas have blamed Israel for the death of Haniyeh and have vowed revenge in response.

It would be somewhat rare for Israel to strike Iranian soil, which Israeli officials are aware would likely provoke an escalation as fighting rages across the Middle East between Iranian-backed proxies and Israel.

But Israel is suspected of being behind the death of Iranian scientists on Iran’s soil in 2020, and in April, Israeli forces carried out a limited attack in the country following Tehran’s massive drone and rocket strike on Israel.

The Haniyeh strike comes just one day after Israel targeted and claimed to have killed the top military commander of Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon’s Beirut in response to the militia group’s rocket attack that killed 12 children in Israel.

Fears are mounting that Israel and Hezbollah, which have been trading cross-border fire for some 10 months, are headed to a war, even if a deal is reached to stop the fighting in Gaza, where more than 39,000 Palestinians have been killed.

Israeli forces have targeted several top Hamas officials as they seek to take out the leadership following the deadly Hamas attacks on southern Israel on Oct. 7, which killed some 1,200 people and took some 250 hostages.

Israel may have taken out Hamas’s military chief, Mohammed Deif, in a June strike, though his death is not confirmed. The top Hamas leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, remains at large and is believed to be hiding out in the group’s vast tunnel network.

Haniyeh’s death is a major blow to Hamas, since he had led the militant group since 2017 and been the most visible face of its political side.

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