Why and How Harris Should Take Her ‘Opportunity Economy’ to Rural Voters

by Anthony Pahnke

 August 23, 2024
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Photo by Colin Lloyd

Campaign strategists obsess over the ‘blue wall,’ that is, those Midwestern states that regularly went Democrat in Presidential races until Trump eked out victories in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in 2016.

But within those states and around the country, they should not forget another supposed partisan bulwark – the Republican’s ‘red wall.’  Not in any particular state, these are the rural counties that have trended right increasingly since the 2000s.  Trump garnered clear majorities in such areas in 2016 and 2020.

Now, as Harris has begun to compose her policy proposals – with the idea of the ‘opportunity economy’ and the need to lower the cost of living that she announced in her North Carolina speech – her campaign should make a play to pierce that wall of staunch Republican support.  Strategically, all she needs is to strengthen and target some of her economic messaging.  Moreover, there are clear reasons for Harris to do so as her campaign needs to keep the pressure on Trump while also making her appeal truly national.

But does the Harris campaign need to appeal to voters outside the Democratic base?  Polls show her catching up with Trump, even outpacing him in some cases.

Still, Harris making a play for rural votes makes strategic sense.

First, such a move shows strength while also keeping Trump on the defensive.   The former President’s campaign appears flailing, struggling to find an attack on Harris that sticks.  Taking the fight to him where his campaign believes they are strong, would further keep the Republican nominee on his heels.

Also, campaigns these days are won at the margins, or rather, races are won by the thousands of votes in the handful or so of swing states that garner so much attention given how the electoral college operates.  Taking just some of the rural vote in these states could make the difference in races that are expected to be tight.

There is also the question of policy.

Harris’ website is short on details aside from requests for contributions and a list of upcoming campaign stops.  That may work now, but the energy that she has generated cannot be trusted to carry her through November.

This also involves respect, as voters – including the people in rural areas – deserve to know what Harris stands for.  Real policy positions that address rural voters’ needs would also grant her campaign credibility. A stump stop at some farm is a cheap campaign trope.  Even selecting Walz as VP, with his own rural background, is superficial identity politics without policy substance.  In democracies, voters deserve transparency and to know what their elected representatives plan to do if elected.

All Harris needs to do in terms of making credible appeals to rural voters is to strengthen some of economic messaging – particularly on pricing – that she presented in North Carolina.

The Farm Bill, for instance, is stalled in Congress.   With this legislation that governs our food system most likely becoming law in 2025 after our elections, Harris could address the fact that farm incomes are slated to fall this year when compared to 2023.  Sticking it to Trump, she could also mention how his trade war with China negatively hit many producers’ bottom line, while a Harris administration would improve farmer economic well-being by reforming the check-off program, advocating for country of origin labeling, and strengthening federal food procurement initiatives.

Farmers also know price-gouging just as well as the consumer at the grocery store.

In this regard, Harris could include prioritizing competition in the farm economy among her policy ideas.  Not a stretch for the presumptive Democratic nominee, she could pledge to support President Biden’s efforts to strengthen antitrust law enforcement and prevent further consolidation.

Similarly, Harris could promote small rural businesses, as on average, people in rural areas tend to be entrepreneurs more so than their urban counterparts.  Accordingly, she could discuss making tax breaks for businesses that operate within or move to rural areas, and advocate for more grants for those who recently began.

In her speech in North Carolina, Harris also referenced the high cost of healthcare.  This is especially true for folks with disabilities, who are most present in rural areas when compared to cities.  She could promise to strengthen social security and Medicaid, also pledging to continue to issue grants to improve rural hospitals.

Democrats have momentum, but a lot can happen from now until November.  Making a credible play for her opponent’s trusted voter base would continue the VP’s show of strength while keeping Trump on the defensive.  At the same time, building her coalition by going to rural areas with a strong economic message would show that Harris is sincere about governing for everyone, and not keeping us divided.

Anthony Pahnke is a Professor of International Relations at San Francisco State University. His research covers development policy and social movements in Latin America. He can be contacted at anthonypahnke@sfsu.edu