DW
September 24, 2024
While Israel says its attacks on Lebanon's Hezbollah are necessary to regain safety in the border region, analysts point to three different key factors.
'Almost full-fledged war'
Meanwhile, the death tally in Lebanon is on the rise. Israel's current attacks, as well as the recent explosions of communications devices and killings of Hezbollah leaders, have claimed the lives of around 500 people and injured thousands more across Lebanon.
The EU's foreign affairs chief, Josep Borrell, has described the situation as "almost full-fledged war."
However, according to Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at the UK-based think tank Chatham House, the current military operation and the dangerous escalation mainly serves as "justification or cover for Israel's seeking to return its displaced citizens to the north."
In her view, however, there are other key factors driving Israel's current attacks on Lebanon.
"Firstly, Israel is trying to delink the Gaza and Hezbollah fronts on its borders," she told DW.
"Israel has not been able to achieve a cease-fire in Gaza, and it has not been able to achieve a peace agreement from Hezbollah because of Gaza," Vakil said.
Meanwhile, the so-called Axis of Resistance, which consists of countries like Iran and multiple militias like Hezbollah, Hamas and the Yemen-based Houthis who consider Israel and the US as their enemies, has been focusing on unifying their forces and pressuring Israel simultaneously since October 7, she added.
Aftermath of the Second Lebanon War
"Secondly, of course, Israel faces a perpetual security threat from Hezbollah in Lebanon," she said.
In 2006, a month-long war between Hezbollah and Israel — called the Second Lebanon War after the First Lebanon War between 1982 and 1985 — ended with the acceptance of the United Nations Resolution 1701.
The conditions were an immediate cease-fire, the deployment of Lebanese troops and UN peacekeepers to southern Lebanon, the withdrawal of the Israel Defense Forces and of Hezbollah from that same area, as well as the disarmament of Hezbollah.
However, Hezbollah did neither retreat to Lebanon's Litani River, which is some 40 kilometers (25 miles) north of the border, nor did the Shiite militia give up its weapons. In the years since, with Iran's support, Hezbollah's military equipment and number of trained fighters has multiplied instead.
This also fosters fears that Hezbollah fighters could in the future abduct Israeli citizens to their territory.
"Israel is [once more] seeking to force Hezbollah to accept UN Security Council Resolution 1701," Vakil said.
Lebanon war distracts from Gaza war
"Thirdly, with this operation in Lebanon, there is no focus on Gaza," Vakil said.
Almost a year after the war in Gaza began, the international focus has shifted despite ongoing fighting in Gaza and over 90 hostages who remain in Hamas captivity, she pointed out.
"Israel has no strategy for extracting itself from Gaza and it hasn't made it clear what it plans for the day after and it is certainly not talking about an Israeli-Palestinian process," Vakil said.
In her view, the war in Lebanon "is a distraction from the lack of strategy in Gaza."
Ground invasion in Lebanon as potential game changer
Meanwhile, the Israeli population is getting increasingly impatient. Pressure on Netanyahu to reach a cease-fire deal and secure the return hostages is growing.
"From an Israeli point of view, political domestic pressure is very high and is intensifying week per week," Lorenzo Trombetta, a Beirut-based Middle East analyst and consultant for UN agencies, told DW.
He assumes that reaching a consensus has become a key step for the Israeli government. One way to achieve this could be by providing for the security of northern Israel, Trombetta said.
"Only, it is hard to say if Israel will be able to achieve this," he added.
"Who knows if or when an Israeli ground operation will begin? And in what way would Iran react if Hezbollah was on the brink of a total defeat against Israel?" Trombetta asked.
Edited by: Rob Mudge
Hezbollah is the state in south Lebanon: Karim El-Gawhary
While Israel says its attacks on Lebanon's Hezbollah are necessary to regain safety in the border region, analysts point to three different key factors.
Analysts say three key factors are behind Israel's attacks on Lebanon
Image: FADEL ITANI /AFP
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that the current escalation in Lebanon is necessary "to defend our people against Hezbollah."
"We must take out those weapons to pave the way for the safe return of Israel's northern communities to their homes," he said.
Almost a year ago, some 60,000 Israelis had to evacuate their houses when the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia in Lebanon began shelling the border area in northern Israel.
Hezbollah — which is designated as a terrorist organization by several countries, including the US and Germany, while the European Union classifies its armed wing as a terrorist group — has argued that their rockets are in support of Gaza's militant organization Hamas whose fighters along with members of other militant Islamist groups killed around 1,150 people and took some 250 more as hostages on October 7, 2023. Hamas is also designated a terrorist organization by Germany, the US, EU and others.
According to the Hamas-run Health Ministry in Gaza, at least 41,000 people have been killed as a result of Israel's war against Hamas.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that the current escalation in Lebanon is necessary "to defend our people against Hezbollah."
"We must take out those weapons to pave the way for the safe return of Israel's northern communities to their homes," he said.
Almost a year ago, some 60,000 Israelis had to evacuate their houses when the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia in Lebanon began shelling the border area in northern Israel.
Hezbollah — which is designated as a terrorist organization by several countries, including the US and Germany, while the European Union classifies its armed wing as a terrorist group — has argued that their rockets are in support of Gaza's militant organization Hamas whose fighters along with members of other militant Islamist groups killed around 1,150 people and took some 250 more as hostages on October 7, 2023. Hamas is also designated a terrorist organization by Germany, the US, EU and others.
According to the Hamas-run Health Ministry in Gaza, at least 41,000 people have been killed as a result of Israel's war against Hamas.
Experts agree that the weapon arsenal supplied by Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon will last for months to come.Image: Baz Ratner/AP/picture alliance
'Almost full-fledged war'
Meanwhile, the death tally in Lebanon is on the rise. Israel's current attacks, as well as the recent explosions of communications devices and killings of Hezbollah leaders, have claimed the lives of around 500 people and injured thousands more across Lebanon.
The EU's foreign affairs chief, Josep Borrell, has described the situation as "almost full-fledged war."
However, according to Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at the UK-based think tank Chatham House, the current military operation and the dangerous escalation mainly serves as "justification or cover for Israel's seeking to return its displaced citizens to the north."
In her view, however, there are other key factors driving Israel's current attacks on Lebanon.
"Firstly, Israel is trying to delink the Gaza and Hezbollah fronts on its borders," she told DW.
"Israel has not been able to achieve a cease-fire in Gaza, and it has not been able to achieve a peace agreement from Hezbollah because of Gaza," Vakil said.
Meanwhile, the so-called Axis of Resistance, which consists of countries like Iran and multiple militias like Hezbollah, Hamas and the Yemen-based Houthis who consider Israel and the US as their enemies, has been focusing on unifying their forces and pressuring Israel simultaneously since October 7, she added.
Not only Israelis, but some 110,000 Lebanese have left the border region
Image: FADEL ITANI/AFP
Aftermath of the Second Lebanon War
"Secondly, of course, Israel faces a perpetual security threat from Hezbollah in Lebanon," she said.
In 2006, a month-long war between Hezbollah and Israel — called the Second Lebanon War after the First Lebanon War between 1982 and 1985 — ended with the acceptance of the United Nations Resolution 1701.
The conditions were an immediate cease-fire, the deployment of Lebanese troops and UN peacekeepers to southern Lebanon, the withdrawal of the Israel Defense Forces and of Hezbollah from that same area, as well as the disarmament of Hezbollah.
However, Hezbollah did neither retreat to Lebanon's Litani River, which is some 40 kilometers (25 miles) north of the border, nor did the Shiite militia give up its weapons. In the years since, with Iran's support, Hezbollah's military equipment and number of trained fighters has multiplied instead.
This also fosters fears that Hezbollah fighters could in the future abduct Israeli citizens to their territory.
"Israel is [once more] seeking to force Hezbollah to accept UN Security Council Resolution 1701," Vakil said.
Lebanon war distracts from Gaza war
"Thirdly, with this operation in Lebanon, there is no focus on Gaza," Vakil said.
Almost a year after the war in Gaza began, the international focus has shifted despite ongoing fighting in Gaza and over 90 hostages who remain in Hamas captivity, she pointed out.
"Israel has no strategy for extracting itself from Gaza and it hasn't made it clear what it plans for the day after and it is certainly not talking about an Israeli-Palestinian process," Vakil said.
In her view, the war in Lebanon "is a distraction from the lack of strategy in Gaza."
Israel's population is getting increasingly impatient with their government almost a year after the Hamas attack on October 7
Image: Mahmoud Illean/AP Photo/picture alliance
Ground invasion in Lebanon as potential game changer
Meanwhile, the Israeli population is getting increasingly impatient. Pressure on Netanyahu to reach a cease-fire deal and secure the return hostages is growing.
"From an Israeli point of view, political domestic pressure is very high and is intensifying week per week," Lorenzo Trombetta, a Beirut-based Middle East analyst and consultant for UN agencies, told DW.
He assumes that reaching a consensus has become a key step for the Israeli government. One way to achieve this could be by providing for the security of northern Israel, Trombetta said.
"Only, it is hard to say if Israel will be able to achieve this," he added.
"Who knows if or when an Israeli ground operation will begin? And in what way would Iran react if Hezbollah was on the brink of a total defeat against Israel?" Trombetta asked.
Edited by: Rob Mudge
Hezbollah is the state in south Lebanon: Karim El-Gawhary
Lebanon: The history of a weak state
Hezbollah
Many observers also feel that Lebanon is harmed by the presence of Hezbollah, a Shiite group classified by the US, Germanyand several Sunni Arab states as a terrorist organization. Hezbollah was founded in 1982 during the Lebanese civil war, receiving substantial support — including and above all military aid — from Iran from the very outset. In 2022, the Washington-based Wilson Center described Hezbollah's armed wing as likely "the most formidable non-state military actor in the Middle East — and arguably in the world." It was Hezbollah that opened fired on Israel after the start of the Gaza war last fall — without ever taking into consideration the rest of the Lebanese population. "Hezbollah has basically taken Lebanese politics hostage," says Middle East expert Kelly Petillo of the European Council on Foreign Relations.
A weak Lebanese army
The weakness of the Lebanese state is also evident in the passivity of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), which finds itself in a dilemma in the country's south, where it cooperates with United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNFIL) peacekeepers on the basis of UN Security Council Resolution 1701.
Both forces are made up of 15,000 soldiers. Their presence is linked to the 2006 Lebanon war, when Israel occupied areas of southern Lebanon. UN Security Council Resolution 1701 holds that following an Israeli withdrawal, the LAF and UNFIL would work together to ensure that no armed Lebanese militias return to southern Lebanon. Only troops authorized by the Lebanese government may be present in the south. Hezbollah has so far, however, disregarded this agreement and remains active in the area.
This article was translated from German
DW
9 hours ago9 hours ago
The Lebanese state lacks power to contain the escalating conflict between Hezbollah and Isreal unfolding on its territory. Its army is notoriously weak too.
The Lebanese state lacks power to contain the escalating conflict between Hezbollah and Isreal unfolding on its territory. Its army is notoriously weak too.
Smoke rises after an Israeli airstrike on southern Lebanon
Image: Rabih Daher/REUTERS
Earlier this week during an emergency session of the UN Security Council in New York, Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati declared Israel was waging a "dirty war" against his country. He said Israel was responsible for an unprecedented escalation in Lebanonand for the deaths of hundreds of civilians in just a few days, "including young people, women and children." That is why he said he was counting on a joint communiqué by France and the US, which would garner international support and end the "war." Israel rejects calls for a cease-fire.
Mikati's speech showed that the Lebanese government is largely powerless to stop the escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. It has no real influence on Israel's or Hezbollah's actions. Once again, the weakness of the Lebanese government and Lebanese state is becoming apparent.
Earlier this week during an emergency session of the UN Security Council in New York, Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati declared Israel was waging a "dirty war" against his country. He said Israel was responsible for an unprecedented escalation in Lebanonand for the deaths of hundreds of civilians in just a few days, "including young people, women and children." That is why he said he was counting on a joint communiqué by France and the US, which would garner international support and end the "war." Israel rejects calls for a cease-fire.
Mikati's speech showed that the Lebanese government is largely powerless to stop the escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. It has no real influence on Israel's or Hezbollah's actions. Once again, the weakness of the Lebanese government and Lebanese state is becoming apparent.
French President Emmanuel Macron (left) speaks with Prime Minister of Lebanon Najib Mikati (right) on the sidelines of the UN meeting in mid-September 2024I
mage: Ludovic Marin/AFP/Getty Images
The history of a weak state
This weakness has historical roots. "Lebanon was founded in the early 20th century as a state of Christian Maronites in alliance with the French as a protecting power," says Markus Schneider, who heads the Friedrich-Ebert foundation's regional project for peace and security in the Middle East in the Lebanese capital Beirut.
"The birth defect was that it included large areas of non-Maronite populations from the outset," Schneider told DW. "Confessionalism was a compromise in order to integrate other sections of the population. This however prevented the emergence of a strong nation state."
This confessional structure became further entrenched in the Lebanese civil war that erupted in 1975, pitting the country's three largest denominations — Shiites, Sunnis and Maronite Christians — against each other. After the end of the civil war in 1990, a system was established to better balance the interests of the individual confessional groups.
"However, this system led to these groups repeatedly trying to assert their own interests at the expense of the other groups," Schneider says. "This continues to weaken the state. This can be seen, for example, in the fact that the country has been unable to agree on a president since 2022." The rampant corruption which plagues Lebanon is also linked to these divisions. "If there isn't a strong state that can take action against the centrifugal forces in its own country and institutions, then an oligarchic system can easily emerge in which everyone serves themselves," Schneider said.
This weakness has historical roots. "Lebanon was founded in the early 20th century as a state of Christian Maronites in alliance with the French as a protecting power," says Markus Schneider, who heads the Friedrich-Ebert foundation's regional project for peace and security in the Middle East in the Lebanese capital Beirut.
"The birth defect was that it included large areas of non-Maronite populations from the outset," Schneider told DW. "Confessionalism was a compromise in order to integrate other sections of the population. This however prevented the emergence of a strong nation state."
This confessional structure became further entrenched in the Lebanese civil war that erupted in 1975, pitting the country's three largest denominations — Shiites, Sunnis and Maronite Christians — against each other. After the end of the civil war in 1990, a system was established to better balance the interests of the individual confessional groups.
"However, this system led to these groups repeatedly trying to assert their own interests at the expense of the other groups," Schneider says. "This continues to weaken the state. This can be seen, for example, in the fact that the country has been unable to agree on a president since 2022." The rampant corruption which plagues Lebanon is also linked to these divisions. "If there isn't a strong state that can take action against the centrifugal forces in its own country and institutions, then an oligarchic system can easily emerge in which everyone serves themselves," Schneider said.
Hezbollah
Many observers also feel that Lebanon is harmed by the presence of Hezbollah, a Shiite group classified by the US, Germanyand several Sunni Arab states as a terrorist organization. Hezbollah was founded in 1982 during the Lebanese civil war, receiving substantial support — including and above all military aid — from Iran from the very outset. In 2022, the Washington-based Wilson Center described Hezbollah's armed wing as likely "the most formidable non-state military actor in the Middle East — and arguably in the world." It was Hezbollah that opened fired on Israel after the start of the Gaza war last fall — without ever taking into consideration the rest of the Lebanese population. "Hezbollah has basically taken Lebanese politics hostage," says Middle East expert Kelly Petillo of the European Council on Foreign Relations.
A weak Lebanese army
The weakness of the Lebanese state is also evident in the passivity of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), which finds itself in a dilemma in the country's south, where it cooperates with United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNFIL) peacekeepers on the basis of UN Security Council Resolution 1701.
Both forces are made up of 15,000 soldiers. Their presence is linked to the 2006 Lebanon war, when Israel occupied areas of southern Lebanon. UN Security Council Resolution 1701 holds that following an Israeli withdrawal, the LAF and UNFIL would work together to ensure that no armed Lebanese militias return to southern Lebanon. Only troops authorized by the Lebanese government may be present in the south. Hezbollah has so far, however, disregarded this agreement and remains active in the area.
Lebanese armed forces out on patrol in Beirut in March 2024
Image: Elisa Gestri/Sipa USA/picture alliance
The LAF is relatively powerless in military terms. It is ranked in 118th place out of a total of 145 in the Global Firepower Index, which compares the strength of national armies worldwide. It would not be able to put up any serious resistance to the Israeli army, which is ranked 17th in the Global Firepower Index, nor would it be able to contain Hezbollah. "This would drag Lebanon into a civil war," says Schneider.
The LAF's biggest problem, meanwhile, remains political. As it is not controlled by any confessional group in the country, the army is regarded as one of the few non-confessional institutions in Lebanon, says Schneider. "But of course the army is also weakened by the national and economic crisis in Lebanon," he explains. "That is why it receives financial support, for example with regard to paying salaries. The concern is that if the army collapses, the Lebanese state itself could collapse. But of course, the army cannot solve the state's political problems."
The LAF is relatively powerless in military terms. It is ranked in 118th place out of a total of 145 in the Global Firepower Index, which compares the strength of national armies worldwide. It would not be able to put up any serious resistance to the Israeli army, which is ranked 17th in the Global Firepower Index, nor would it be able to contain Hezbollah. "This would drag Lebanon into a civil war," says Schneider.
The LAF's biggest problem, meanwhile, remains political. As it is not controlled by any confessional group in the country, the army is regarded as one of the few non-confessional institutions in Lebanon, says Schneider. "But of course the army is also weakened by the national and economic crisis in Lebanon," he explains. "That is why it receives financial support, for example with regard to paying salaries. The concern is that if the army collapses, the Lebanese state itself could collapse. But of course, the army cannot solve the state's political problems."
How Israel defends itself against missile attacks 02:24
This article was translated from German
Nearly one million people displaced in Lebanon, Israeli strikes kill dozens
DW
Issued on: 29/09/2024 -
Israel struck multiple targets in Lebanon on Sunday, pressing Iran-backed Hezbollah with more attacks after it struck a huge blow by killing the group's leader, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. Story by Andrew Hillier.
Nasrallah killing reveals the extent of Israel's infiltration of Hezbollah
The killing of Hezbollah’s longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah caps a series of stunning Israeli operations that exposed the extent to which Israeli spy agencies have penetrated the powerful Iran-backed militant organisation and tracked its shadowy command structure.
Issued on: 29/09/2024
Over the past year, even more weapons have flowed into Lebanon from Iran, along with significant amounts of financial aid, a source familiar with Hezbollah's thinking said.
There have been few detailed public assessments of how much this arsenal has been damaged by Israel's offensive over the past week, which has hit Hezbollah strongholds in Bekaa Valley, far from Lebanon's border with Israel.
One Western diplomat in the Middle East told Reuters prior to Friday's attack that Hezbollah had lost 20%-25% of its missile capacity in the ongoing conflict, including in hundreds of Israeli strikes this week. The diplomat did not provide evidence or details of their assessment.
An Israeli security official said "a very respectable portion" of Hezbollah's missile stocks had been destroyed, without giving further specifics.
In recent days, Israel has struck more than 1,000 Hezbollah targets. The security official, when asked about the military's extensive target lists, said Israel had matched Hezbollah's two-decade build up with preparations to prevent it launching its rockets in the first place – a complement to the Iron Dome air defence system that often downs missiles fired at the Jewish state.
Israeli officials say the fact that Hezbollah has only been able to launch a couple of hundred missiles a day in the past week was evidence its capabilities had been diminished.
Iran connection
Before the strike on Nasrallah, three Iranian sources told Reuters Iran was planning to send additional missiles to Hezbollah to prepare for a prolonged war.
The weapons that were to be provided included short-to-medium-range ballistic missiles including Iranian Zelzals and an upgraded precision version known as the Fateh 110, the first Iranian source said.
Reuters was unable to reach the sources after the Nasrallah assassination.
While Iran is willing to provide military support, the two Iranian sources said it does not want to be directly involved in a confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel. The rapid escalation in hostilities over the past week follows a year of skirmishes tied to the Gaza war.
Iranian Revolutionary Guards' deputy commander Abbas Nilforoushan was killed in the Israeli strikes on Beirut on Friday, Iranian media reported on Saturday, citing a state TV report.
Hezbollah may need certain warheads and missiles along with drones and missile parts to replenish those destroyed by Israeli strikes across Lebanon last week, a senior Syrian military intelligence source added.
Read more World figures react to the death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah
Iranian supplies have in the past reached Hezbollah by air and sea. On Saturday, Lebanon's transport ministry told an Iranian aircraft not to enter its airspace after Israel warned air traffic control at Beirut airport that it would use "force" if the plane landed, a source at the ministry told Reuters.
The source said it was not clear what was on the plane.
Land corridors are currently the best route for missiles, parts and drones, through Iraq and Syria, with the help of allied armed groups in those countries, an Iranian security official told Reuters this week.
The Syrian military source, however, said Israeli drone surveillance and strikes targeting convoys of trucks had compromised that route. This year, Israel stepped up attacks on weapons depots and supply routes in Syria to weaken Hezbollah ahead of any war, Reuters reported in June.
As recently as August, an Israeli drone hit weapons concealed in commercial trailers in Syria, the source said. This week, Israel's military said its warplanes bombed unspecified infrastructure used to transfer weapons to Hezbollah at the Syria-Lebanon border.
Joseph Votel, a former army general who led US forces in the Middle East, said Israel and its allies could well intercept any missiles Iran sent by land to Hezbollah now.
"That might be a risk they're willing to take, frankly," he said.
(Reuters)
The killing of Hezbollah’s longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah caps a series of stunning Israeli operations that exposed the extent to which Israeli spy agencies have penetrated the powerful Iran-backed militant organisation and tracked its shadowy command structure.
Issued on: 29/09/2024
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A Hezbollah flag at the site of the strike that killed leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut's southern suburbs, pictured on September 29, 2024.
© Hassan Ammar, AP
In the wake of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah's killing, Hezbollah faces the enormous challenge of plugging the infiltration in its ranks that allowed its arch enemy Israel to destroy weapons sites, booby-trap its communications and assassinate the veteran leader, whose whereabouts had been a closely guarded secret for years.
Nasrallah's killing in a command HQ on Friday came barely a week after Israel's deadly detonation of hundreds of booby-trapped pagers and radios. It was the culmination of a rapid succession of strikes that have eliminated half of Hezbollah's leadership council and decimated its top military command.
In the days before and hours after Nasrallah's killing, Reuters spoke to more than a dozen sources in Lebanon, Israel, Iran and Syria who provided details of the damage Israel has wrought on the powerful Shiite paramilitary group, including to its supply lines and command structure. All asked for anonymity to speak about sensitive matters.
One source familiar with Israeli thinking told Reuters, less than 24 hours before the strike, that Israel has spent 20 years focusing intelligence efforts on Hezbollah and could hit Nasrallah when it wanted, including in the headquarters.
The person called the intelligence "brilliant," without providing details.
Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and his close circle of ministers authorized the attack on Wednesday, two Israeli officials told Reuters. The attack took place while Netanyahu was in New York to speak at the UN General Assembly.
Nasrallah had avoided public appearances since a previous 2006 war. He had long been vigilant, his movements were restricted and the circle of people he saw was very small, according to a source familiar with Nasrallah's security arrangements. The assassination suggested his group had been infiltrated by informants for Israel, the source said.
Read moreDeath of Hezbollah chief raises questions of what comes next
The Hezbollah leader had been even more cautious than usual since the Sept. 17 pager blasts, out of concern Israel would try to kill him, a security source familiar with the group's thinking told Reuters a week ago, citing his absence from a commanders' funeral and his pre-recording of a speech broadcast a few days before.
Hezbollah's media office did not respond to a request for comment for this story. US President Joe Biden on Saturday called Nasrallah's killing "a measure of justice" for his many victims, and said the United States fully supported Israel's right to defend itself against Iranian-backed groups.
Israel says it carried out the hit on Nasrallah by dropping bombs on the underground headquarters below a residential building in southern Beirut.
"This is a massive blow and intelligence failure for Hezbollah," Magnus Ranstorp, a veteran Hezbollah expert at the Swedish Defence University. "They knew that he was meeting. He was meeting with other commanders. And they just went for him."
Including Nasrallah, Israel's military says it has killed eight of Hezbollah's nine most senior military commanders this year, mostly in the past week. These commanders led units ranging from the rocket division to the elite Radwan force.
Around 1,500 Hezbollah fighters were maimed by the exploding pagers and walkie talkies on Sept. 17 and Sept. 18.
On Saturday, Israel's military spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani told reporters in a briefing that the military had "real-time" knowledge that Nasrallah and other leaders were gathering. Shoshani did not say how they knew, but said the leaders were meeting to plan attacks on Israel.
Brigadier General Amichai Levin, commander of Israel's Hatzerim Airbase, told reporters that dozens of munitions hit the target within seconds.
"The operation was complex and was planned for a long time," according to Levin.
Depleted
Hezbollah has shown the ability to replace commanders quickly, and Nasrallah's cousin Hashem Safieddine, also a cleric who wears the black turban denoting descent from Islam's Prophet Mohammed, has long been tipped as his successor.
"You kill one, they get a new one," said a European diplomat of the group's approach.
The group, whose name means Party of God, will fight on: by US and Israeli estimates it had some 40,000 fighters ahead of the current escalation, along with large weapons stockpiles and an extensive tunnel network near Israel's border.
Founded in Tehran in 1982, the Shiite paramilitary outfit is the most formidable member of Iran's so-called Axis of Resistance of anti-Israel allied irregular forces, and a significant regional player in its own right.
But it has been materially and psychologically weakened over the past 10 days.
Thanks to decades of backing from Iran, prior to the current conflict Hezbollah was among the world's most well-armed non-conventional armies, with an arsenal of 150,000 rockets, missiles and drones, according to US estimates.
That is ten times the size of the armoury the group had in 2006, during its last war with Israel, according to Israeli estimates.
In the wake of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah's killing, Hezbollah faces the enormous challenge of plugging the infiltration in its ranks that allowed its arch enemy Israel to destroy weapons sites, booby-trap its communications and assassinate the veteran leader, whose whereabouts had been a closely guarded secret for years.
Nasrallah's killing in a command HQ on Friday came barely a week after Israel's deadly detonation of hundreds of booby-trapped pagers and radios. It was the culmination of a rapid succession of strikes that have eliminated half of Hezbollah's leadership council and decimated its top military command.
In the days before and hours after Nasrallah's killing, Reuters spoke to more than a dozen sources in Lebanon, Israel, Iran and Syria who provided details of the damage Israel has wrought on the powerful Shiite paramilitary group, including to its supply lines and command structure. All asked for anonymity to speak about sensitive matters.
One source familiar with Israeli thinking told Reuters, less than 24 hours before the strike, that Israel has spent 20 years focusing intelligence efforts on Hezbollah and could hit Nasrallah when it wanted, including in the headquarters.
The person called the intelligence "brilliant," without providing details.
Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and his close circle of ministers authorized the attack on Wednesday, two Israeli officials told Reuters. The attack took place while Netanyahu was in New York to speak at the UN General Assembly.
Nasrallah had avoided public appearances since a previous 2006 war. He had long been vigilant, his movements were restricted and the circle of people he saw was very small, according to a source familiar with Nasrallah's security arrangements. The assassination suggested his group had been infiltrated by informants for Israel, the source said.
Read moreDeath of Hezbollah chief raises questions of what comes next
The Hezbollah leader had been even more cautious than usual since the Sept. 17 pager blasts, out of concern Israel would try to kill him, a security source familiar with the group's thinking told Reuters a week ago, citing his absence from a commanders' funeral and his pre-recording of a speech broadcast a few days before.
Hezbollah's media office did not respond to a request for comment for this story. US President Joe Biden on Saturday called Nasrallah's killing "a measure of justice" for his many victims, and said the United States fully supported Israel's right to defend itself against Iranian-backed groups.
Israel says it carried out the hit on Nasrallah by dropping bombs on the underground headquarters below a residential building in southern Beirut.
"This is a massive blow and intelligence failure for Hezbollah," Magnus Ranstorp, a veteran Hezbollah expert at the Swedish Defence University. "They knew that he was meeting. He was meeting with other commanders. And they just went for him."
Including Nasrallah, Israel's military says it has killed eight of Hezbollah's nine most senior military commanders this year, mostly in the past week. These commanders led units ranging from the rocket division to the elite Radwan force.
Around 1,500 Hezbollah fighters were maimed by the exploding pagers and walkie talkies on Sept. 17 and Sept. 18.
On Saturday, Israel's military spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani told reporters in a briefing that the military had "real-time" knowledge that Nasrallah and other leaders were gathering. Shoshani did not say how they knew, but said the leaders were meeting to plan attacks on Israel.
Brigadier General Amichai Levin, commander of Israel's Hatzerim Airbase, told reporters that dozens of munitions hit the target within seconds.
"The operation was complex and was planned for a long time," according to Levin.
Depleted
Hezbollah has shown the ability to replace commanders quickly, and Nasrallah's cousin Hashem Safieddine, also a cleric who wears the black turban denoting descent from Islam's Prophet Mohammed, has long been tipped as his successor.
"You kill one, they get a new one," said a European diplomat of the group's approach.
The group, whose name means Party of God, will fight on: by US and Israeli estimates it had some 40,000 fighters ahead of the current escalation, along with large weapons stockpiles and an extensive tunnel network near Israel's border.
Founded in Tehran in 1982, the Shiite paramilitary outfit is the most formidable member of Iran's so-called Axis of Resistance of anti-Israel allied irregular forces, and a significant regional player in its own right.
But it has been materially and psychologically weakened over the past 10 days.
Thanks to decades of backing from Iran, prior to the current conflict Hezbollah was among the world's most well-armed non-conventional armies, with an arsenal of 150,000 rockets, missiles and drones, according to US estimates.
That is ten times the size of the armoury the group had in 2006, during its last war with Israel, according to Israeli estimates.
06:21
Over the past year, even more weapons have flowed into Lebanon from Iran, along with significant amounts of financial aid, a source familiar with Hezbollah's thinking said.
There have been few detailed public assessments of how much this arsenal has been damaged by Israel's offensive over the past week, which has hit Hezbollah strongholds in Bekaa Valley, far from Lebanon's border with Israel.
One Western diplomat in the Middle East told Reuters prior to Friday's attack that Hezbollah had lost 20%-25% of its missile capacity in the ongoing conflict, including in hundreds of Israeli strikes this week. The diplomat did not provide evidence or details of their assessment.
An Israeli security official said "a very respectable portion" of Hezbollah's missile stocks had been destroyed, without giving further specifics.
In recent days, Israel has struck more than 1,000 Hezbollah targets. The security official, when asked about the military's extensive target lists, said Israel had matched Hezbollah's two-decade build up with preparations to prevent it launching its rockets in the first place – a complement to the Iron Dome air defence system that often downs missiles fired at the Jewish state.
Israeli officials say the fact that Hezbollah has only been able to launch a couple of hundred missiles a day in the past week was evidence its capabilities had been diminished.
Iran connection
Before the strike on Nasrallah, three Iranian sources told Reuters Iran was planning to send additional missiles to Hezbollah to prepare for a prolonged war.
The weapons that were to be provided included short-to-medium-range ballistic missiles including Iranian Zelzals and an upgraded precision version known as the Fateh 110, the first Iranian source said.
Reuters was unable to reach the sources after the Nasrallah assassination.
While Iran is willing to provide military support, the two Iranian sources said it does not want to be directly involved in a confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel. The rapid escalation in hostilities over the past week follows a year of skirmishes tied to the Gaza war.
Iranian Revolutionary Guards' deputy commander Abbas Nilforoushan was killed in the Israeli strikes on Beirut on Friday, Iranian media reported on Saturday, citing a state TV report.
Hezbollah may need certain warheads and missiles along with drones and missile parts to replenish those destroyed by Israeli strikes across Lebanon last week, a senior Syrian military intelligence source added.
Read more World figures react to the death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah
Iranian supplies have in the past reached Hezbollah by air and sea. On Saturday, Lebanon's transport ministry told an Iranian aircraft not to enter its airspace after Israel warned air traffic control at Beirut airport that it would use "force" if the plane landed, a source at the ministry told Reuters.
The source said it was not clear what was on the plane.
Land corridors are currently the best route for missiles, parts and drones, through Iraq and Syria, with the help of allied armed groups in those countries, an Iranian security official told Reuters this week.
The Syrian military source, however, said Israeli drone surveillance and strikes targeting convoys of trucks had compromised that route. This year, Israel stepped up attacks on weapons depots and supply routes in Syria to weaken Hezbollah ahead of any war, Reuters reported in June.
As recently as August, an Israeli drone hit weapons concealed in commercial trailers in Syria, the source said. This week, Israel's military said its warplanes bombed unspecified infrastructure used to transfer weapons to Hezbollah at the Syria-Lebanon border.
Joseph Votel, a former army general who led US forces in the Middle East, said Israel and its allies could well intercept any missiles Iran sent by land to Hezbollah now.
"That might be a risk they're willing to take, frankly," he said.
(Reuters)
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