Wednesday, September 11, 2024

Harris’ rising odds fluctuate crypto and betting markets post-debate, Trump takes a hit and falls 


ByAditi Srivastava
Sep 11, 2024 

Following the debate, betting markets showed a shift in sentiment, with Harris's odds increasing to 56% and Trump's dropping to 48%.


In their first debate on Tuesday, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump stuck to the usual political stuff like the economy, abortion rights, and immigration, avoiding talking about cryptocurrency. But, not talking about crypto didn't stop the betting markets from getting all heated. Trump's chances of winning the election dropped by 3% on Polymarket tying him with Harris for the first time


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Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump shakes hands with Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris during an ABC News presidential debate at the National Constitution Center, Tuesday, Sept.10, 2024, in Philadelphia. AP/PTI(AP09_11_2024_000032A)(AP)

Donald Trump's election-winning odds crash on Polymarket

After the debate, Kamala Harris saw her odds soar, levelling with Donald Trump on Polymarket’s $860 million platform. Trump's chances slid to 49%, making it the first time the two candidates have been so close on the decentralized betting site. During the two-hour debate, Harris stayed cool, sometimes even smiling and showing her signature expressions, but kept pushing back against Trump. Trump, though, got more and more worked up and annoyed, getting interrupted a lot by the hosts checking facts. Polls on Polymarket suggested that Harris had a 94% chance of winning the debate.
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Harris' odds of winning the presidential election rose from 46% to 49% on Polymarket following the debate, while Trump’s odds dropped from 52% to 49%.
Harris’ rising odds impact crypto market; Bitcoin fluctuates

Min Jung, who works as an analyst at Presto Research, told The Block that even though the debate didn't talk about cryptocurrency, Harris' growing chances of winning on Polymarket might be seen as a bad sign for the crypto world.

Bitcoin briefly went up to $58,000 before the debate but dropped to about $56,700 while it was happening. Right now, Bitcoin is trading at $56,797, as The Block's bitcoin price page shows.

The Bernstein team thinks that if Trump wins the election on November 5, Bitcoin could jump to $90,000 by the end of the year because he's said he'll back the crypto world and get rid of the current rules. On the other hand, if Kamala Harris wins, Bitcoin could hit $30,000, but that's just a guess since she has yet to address that topic.

PredictIt's 2024 predictions

As analysts and bettors digest the debate's outcomes, PredictIt reflects a shift in sentiment, showing Harris' odds rising to 56% and Trump's slipping to 48%. During and after the debate, stock futures softened, with S&P 500 E-minis falling by 0.5% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis dropping by 0.65%. The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. dollar's performance against six major currencies, decreased by 0.23%, a Reuters report notes.

“It was light on specifics from either side and I think that those who adhere to Trump are going to believe that he won the debate and those who are loyal to Democrats will think that she won the debate,” Quincy Crosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial told Reuters.

"Neither one of them made strong economic points, but overall Harris came out of this better than Trump. I didn’t hear anything reassuring from either candidate. If anything I think they introduced greater uncertainty. Markets really don’t want strident statements; they want clarity,” said Eric Beyrich, portfolio manager.

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