WWIII
‘Asian NATO’ supporter Ishiba to become Japan’s prime minister
2024.09.27
Taipei, Taiwan
Former Japanese defense minister Shigeru Ishiba waves as he is elected as new head of the ruling party in the Liberal Democratic Party’s leadership vote and is set to become Japan’s next prime minister in Tokyo, Japan, Sept. 27, 2024.
Kyodo/via ReutersVeteran Japanese lawmaker Shigeru Ishiba, who supports the creation of an “Asia version of NATO”, was set on Friday to become prime minister after winning a closely fought contest to lead the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.
Since the LDP holds a parliamentary majority, the next party leader will replace Fumio Kishida as prime minister. Kishida announced his intention to step down in August.
“We must believe in the people, speak the truth with courage and sincerity, and work together to make Japan a safe and secure country where everyone can live with a smile once again,” Ishiba said in a brief speech to lawmakers after the party vote.
The LDP chose Ishiba as Japan grapples with increasing security threats and risk of war in the region, with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, North Korea’s nuclear ambitions and China’s growing military assertiveness.
The 67-year-old Ishiba, who said changes in the security environment were the reason he announced his candidacy, has been strong on deterrence.
The former defense minister expressed his desire to create an “Asian version of NATO” and bring equality to the Japan-U.S. Status of Forces Agreement.
“Ukraine is not a member of NATO. It is not hard to imagine that this prompted President [Vladimir] Putin’s decision,” he said, stressing the need to build a collective security system in Asia, at a news conference on Sept. 10, referring to the Russian leader’s decision to send troops into Ukraine.
While Ishiba does not question the importance of the security alliance with the U.S., he has said Japan needs to play a greater role in the alliance and have a larger say in how American troops are deployed in Japan.
For instance, he wrote in his 2024 memoir that “Japan is still not a truly independent country” because of the “asymmetry” of its dependence on America for its security.
Ishiba also announced he would consider revising the SOFA, or Status of Forces Agreement, which sets the rules for U.S. military operations in Japan. The agreement was concluded when the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty was revised in 1960 and has remained unchanged.
Ishiba said that as LDP president, and thus prime minister, he would seek to establish a base in the U.S. to train Japan’s Self-Defense Forces.
He argued that SOFA should be at the same level as an agreement that would be established upon the creation of such an SDF base in the U.S.
“If we are going to revise SOFA, it has to be something that will strengthen the alliance and improve the regional security environment,” said Ishiba.
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Ishiba is known as a strong backer of Taiwanese democracy while also calling for deeper engagement with China.
He wrote in his memoir that conflating the Russian invasion of Ukraine and a possible Chinese attack on Taiwan was driven by emotion, not a pragmatic assessment of Chinese threats and the impact on Japan.
The nail-biter party election consisted of two rounds. In the first round, the 368 LDP members in the legislature and 368 rank-and-file members cast ballots. In a second runoff round between the top two candidates, 415 votes were cast.
Ishiba came second, after economic security minister Sanae Takaichi, in the first round but he beat Takaichi in the runoff by 21 votes.
“I want to protect Japan, protect the people, protect the local regions, and want to be the LDP that follows the rules,” Ishiba said after the first vote.
He will be officially announced as prime minister at a special legislative session on Oct. 1.
Edited by Mike Firn.
Former Japanese defence minister Shigeru Ishiba accepts the top job following the party vote. (Kyodo via Reuters)
Japan's next prime minister will be maverick regional politician Shigeru Ishiba after the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) elected him the new leader following the news Prime Minister Fumio Kishida would step down.
Mr Ishiba, a veteran politician and former defence minister, won the top job after a runoff against Sanae Takaichi in an internal ballot after none of the original nine hopefuls won enough support to win the ballot outright.
Had Ms Takaichi won, she would have become Japan's first female prime minister.
The vote was sparked after Mr Kishida announced he would no longer seek the top job at the scheduled party meeting, following months of low approval ratings and a donations scandal that embroiled high-ranking politicians.
Shigeru Ishiba won the leadership vote in a runoff election for the Liberal Democratic Party. (Hiro Komae via Reuters)
Before the final vote among LDP politicians, Mr Ishiba vowed to clean up the party's image.
"We will put an end to the widespread distrust in the LDP," he said.
"Once the election is over, we will put our hearts into protecting Japan, local areas, rules and the people of Japan."
Mr Ishiba, 67, has tried and failed to secure the top job many times.
He is known as a maverick, speaking against the party when he feels necessary, which has made him popular among voters.
"He appears on television media quite a lot to give very frank and honest opinions, including criticism of his own government, and that has made him popular with voters," said Jeff Hall, an expert in politics at Kanda University.
Shigeru Ishiba acknowledged his win after he was elected as new head of Japan's ruling LDP party. (Hiro Komae via Reuters)
He hails from a regional part of Japan suffering population decline and has spoken about the need to help all of Japan, and not just the big cities.
"He has this sort of idealistic focus on helping every part of Japan, and he is also very much a policy expert-kind of politician.
"He loves to talk about defence policy, natural disaster relief policies."
But his criticism of the party, including leaving the LDP before, has hurt him in the past, with some fellow LDP members calling him a traitor.
Ishiba beat out would-be first female PM
Mr Ishiba beat out Ms Takaichi, 63, the economic security minister and a hardline conservative who has praised Margaret Thatcher as a role model.
A protege of former prime minister, the late Shinzo Abe, Ms Takaichi talked about stimulating the economy and maintaining ultra-low interest rates.
But there was concern her conservative views were out of line with the electorate.
"She's extremely conservative on social views, far to the right of most Japanese voters, on things like gender, on same-sex marriage, on the issue of whether or not women should be allowed to have a separate family name when they get married," Mr Hall said.
Sanae Takaichi would have been Japan's first female prime minister. (Hiro Komae via Reuters)
She also advocated visiting the Yasukuni Shrine, which honours Japan's war dead, including convicted war criminals.
Her position would infuriate China and South Korea, a country Japan has tried to build relations with.
"She is also very, very hawkish towards China," Mr Hall said.
One of the initial frontrunners in the race was Shinjiro Koizumi, son of former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi.
At 42, Mr Koizumi would have become Japan's youngest prime minister were he successful, but a series of gaffs led many to conclude he was too inexperienced.
"He thinks he can be the Japanese Trudeau, and he's young, he's handsome," Mr Hall said.
"There are a lot of jokes and memes that depict him as an air-headed person who doesn't really have much substance to him."
Japanese former environment minister Shinjiro Koizumi, the 43-year-old son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, speaks at a press conference ahead of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election in Tokyo, Japan, September 6, 2024. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon (Reuters: Kim Kyung-Hoon)
How the votes were counted
The LDP leadership is elected from a 50-50 split between party members, of which there are just under 1.1 million, and its 368 members of parliament, the Diet.
If no candidate wins enough support from the initial vote, a runoff is held that is only open to the members of parliament.
This means a politician less popular with the public can be elected, as factional heads will get the ultimate say.
"Kishida was a classic example of a leader selected not because of his appeal to voters, but because factions within his party wanted to block another politician from becoming PM," said Mr Hall.
Officials show the result of the first voting to election commission at the leadership election. (Hiro Komae via Reuters)
In this runoff, Ms Takaichi was more popular in the initial vote, achieving 72 votes from Diet members while Mr Ishiba won 46.
But among party members, the vote was much closer, with Ms Takaichi beating her rival by one vote.
Snap election expected
Japan's political system is renowned for its relatively high rotation of prime ministers, yet one where the electorate continues to re-elect the same political party.
The LDP has ruled Japan almost uninterrupted in its post-war years.
It lost majority for only a few months in 1993 and was out of government between 2009 and 2013, losing to the centre-left Democratic Party of Japan.
But those years were marred by internal fighting and the the centre-left party failed to deliver on key policies, prompting voters to return the LDP, viewing them as the more experienced party to run the country.
In recent years, the government has been riddled with scandal. The most explosive were revelations senior members of government failed for years to declare donations.
While Mr Kishida wasn't directly involved in the donations scandal, voters saw him as unable to fix the problem, and his voter approval ratings tanked.
Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (centre) announced he would no longer seek the top job after months of low approval ratings and a donations scandal. (Hiro Komae via Reuters)
Despite this, the LDP is still expected to win the next general election.
"The LDP, at least, has the experienced people and the know-how to run a government without messing things up, at least in an opinion of many people," Mr Hall said.
"The various scandals of the LDP are, of course, abhorrent, and people are very annoyed by them, but a lot of them are petty corruption scandals and various other scandals that don't cause the country to grind to a halt, or they don't involve breaking major promises to voters."
The main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, has appointed former prime minister Yoshihiko Noda as its leader, to try and unite the opposition forces and appear as a reliable pair of hands.
Mr Ishiba is expected to call a snap election, meaning Japan will be returning to the polls in late October or November.
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