UPDATED
Moldovans narrowly vote to secure the country’s path toward EU membership
Moldova’s President Maia Sandu leaves after delivering a speech during a press briefing after the polls closed for the presidential election and the referendum on whether to enshrine in the Constitution the country’s path to European Union membership, in Chisinau, Moldova, early Monday.
(Vadim Ghirda / Associated Press)
By Stephen McGrath
Oct. 21, 2024
CHISINAU, Moldova —
Moldovans voted by a razor-thin majority in favor of securing the country’s path toward European Union membership, electoral data showed Monday, following a ballot that nearly caused a major setback for the pro-Western president, who accused “criminal groups” of trying to undermine the vote.
With 99.41% of the 1.4 million votes counted in the EU referendum held Sunday, the “Yes” vote stood at 50.39%, to 49.61% who voted “No,” according to the Central Electoral Commission.
The “No” vote had looked to be ahead right until the last few thousand votes were counted from the country’s large diaspora. A loss would have been a political disaster for the pro-Western government, which strongly supported the pro-EU campaign.
On Monday, President Maia Sandu reiterated claims that unprecedented voter fraud and foreign interference had undermined the votes, calling it a “vile attack” on Moldova’s sovereignty.
“Unfortunately, the justice system failed to do enough to prevent vote rigging and corruption,” she told a news conference. “Here, too, we must draw a line, correct what went wrong, and learn the lesson. We heard you: we know we must do more to fight corruption.”
Moldovan authorities claim that Moscow has intensified a “hybrid war” campaign to destabilize the country and derail its EU path. The allegations include funding pro-Moscow opposition groups, spreading disinformation, meddling in local elections and backing a major vote-buying scheme.
In Brussels, the European Union’s executive branch, the European Commission, said that its services had also noted Russian interference in Moldova, and it underlined its continued support for Moldova on its EU accession path.
“This vote took place under unprecedented interference and intimidation by Russia and its proxies, aiming to destabilize the democratic processes in the Republic of Moldova,” spokesperson Peter Stano said.
Stano told reporters that allegations of vote buying, the bussing of voters and disinformation are only the most recent forms of Russian interference, and that attempts to undermine Moldova and its support for the EU have been going on for months.
In the presidential race that was held at the same time, Sandu won the first round with 42% of the vote in a field of 11, but failed to win an outright majority. She will face Alexandr Stoianoglo, a Russia-friendly former prosecutor general who outperformed polls with around 26% of the vote, in a runoff on Nov. 3.
By the time polling stations closed at 9 p.m. Sunday, more than 1.5 million voters — about 51% of eligible voters — had cast ballots, according to the Central Electoral Commission.
Cristian Cantir, a Moldovan associate professor of international relations at Oakland University, told the Associated Press that earlier polls might have “overestimated the pro-EU feeling” inside Moldova and the referendum would have failed to pass without votes from outside the country.
“It’s going to be particularly problematic because ... it’s going to feed into narratives that are pushed by the Kremlin and pro-Russian forces,” he said.
U.S. national security spokesman John Kirby echoed Russian interference concerns this week, saying in a statement that “Russia is working actively to undermine Moldova’s election and its European integration.” Moscow has repeatedly denied it is interfering in Moldova.
In early October, Moldovan law enforcement said it had uncovered a massive vote-buying scheme orchestrated by Ilan Shor, an exiled pro-Russia oligarch who currently resides in Russia, which paid 15 million euros to 130,000 individuals to undermine the two ballots.
Shor was convicted in absentia last year of fraud and money laundering and sentenced to 15 years in prison in the case of $1 billion that went missing from Moldovan banks in 2014. He denied the allegations, saying the payments were legal and citing a right to freedom of expression. Shor’s populist Russia-friendly Shor Party was declared unconstitutional last year and banned.
On Thursday, Moldovan authorities foiled another plot in which more than 100 young Moldovans received training in Moscow from private military groups on how to create civil unrest around the two votes. Some also attended “more advanced training in guerrilla camps” in Serbia and Bosnia, police said, and four people were detained for 30 days.
A pro-Western government has been in power in Moldova since 2021, a year after Sandu won the presidency. A parliamentary election will be held next year.
Moldova, a former Soviet republic with a population of about 2.5 million, applied to join the EU in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of neighboring Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, and was granted candidate status that summer, alongside Ukraine. Brussels agreed in June to start membership negotiations.
McGrath writes for the Associated Press.
CHISINAU, Moldova —
Moldovans voted by a razor-thin majority in favor of securing the country’s path toward European Union membership, electoral data showed Monday, following a ballot that nearly caused a major setback for the pro-Western president, who accused “criminal groups” of trying to undermine the vote.
With 99.41% of the 1.4 million votes counted in the EU referendum held Sunday, the “Yes” vote stood at 50.39%, to 49.61% who voted “No,” according to the Central Electoral Commission.
The “No” vote had looked to be ahead right until the last few thousand votes were counted from the country’s large diaspora. A loss would have been a political disaster for the pro-Western government, which strongly supported the pro-EU campaign.
On Monday, President Maia Sandu reiterated claims that unprecedented voter fraud and foreign interference had undermined the votes, calling it a “vile attack” on Moldova’s sovereignty.
“Unfortunately, the justice system failed to do enough to prevent vote rigging and corruption,” she told a news conference. “Here, too, we must draw a line, correct what went wrong, and learn the lesson. We heard you: we know we must do more to fight corruption.”
Moldovan authorities claim that Moscow has intensified a “hybrid war” campaign to destabilize the country and derail its EU path. The allegations include funding pro-Moscow opposition groups, spreading disinformation, meddling in local elections and backing a major vote-buying scheme.
In Brussels, the European Union’s executive branch, the European Commission, said that its services had also noted Russian interference in Moldova, and it underlined its continued support for Moldova on its EU accession path.
“This vote took place under unprecedented interference and intimidation by Russia and its proxies, aiming to destabilize the democratic processes in the Republic of Moldova,” spokesperson Peter Stano said.
Stano told reporters that allegations of vote buying, the bussing of voters and disinformation are only the most recent forms of Russian interference, and that attempts to undermine Moldova and its support for the EU have been going on for months.
In the presidential race that was held at the same time, Sandu won the first round with 42% of the vote in a field of 11, but failed to win an outright majority. She will face Alexandr Stoianoglo, a Russia-friendly former prosecutor general who outperformed polls with around 26% of the vote, in a runoff on Nov. 3.
By the time polling stations closed at 9 p.m. Sunday, more than 1.5 million voters — about 51% of eligible voters — had cast ballots, according to the Central Electoral Commission.
Cristian Cantir, a Moldovan associate professor of international relations at Oakland University, told the Associated Press that earlier polls might have “overestimated the pro-EU feeling” inside Moldova and the referendum would have failed to pass without votes from outside the country.
“It’s going to be particularly problematic because ... it’s going to feed into narratives that are pushed by the Kremlin and pro-Russian forces,” he said.
U.S. national security spokesman John Kirby echoed Russian interference concerns this week, saying in a statement that “Russia is working actively to undermine Moldova’s election and its European integration.” Moscow has repeatedly denied it is interfering in Moldova.
In early October, Moldovan law enforcement said it had uncovered a massive vote-buying scheme orchestrated by Ilan Shor, an exiled pro-Russia oligarch who currently resides in Russia, which paid 15 million euros to 130,000 individuals to undermine the two ballots.
Shor was convicted in absentia last year of fraud and money laundering and sentenced to 15 years in prison in the case of $1 billion that went missing from Moldovan banks in 2014. He denied the allegations, saying the payments were legal and citing a right to freedom of expression. Shor’s populist Russia-friendly Shor Party was declared unconstitutional last year and banned.
On Thursday, Moldovan authorities foiled another plot in which more than 100 young Moldovans received training in Moscow from private military groups on how to create civil unrest around the two votes. Some also attended “more advanced training in guerrilla camps” in Serbia and Bosnia, police said, and four people were detained for 30 days.
A pro-Western government has been in power in Moldova since 2021, a year after Sandu won the presidency. A parliamentary election will be held next year.
Moldova, a former Soviet republic with a population of about 2.5 million, applied to join the EU in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of neighboring Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, and was granted candidate status that summer, alongside Ukraine. Brussels agreed in June to start membership negotiations.
McGrath writes for the Associated Press.
Russian interference did not represent 'critical mass' in Moldova vote, expert says
Modified: 21/10/2024 - AFP
Video by: Mark OWEN
Moldovans voted by a razor-thin majority in favor of securing the country’s path toward EU membership, after the pro-Western president accused foreign interference and “criminal groups” of trying to undermine the vote in the former Soviet republic. FRANCE 24's Maria Gerth Niculescu reports from Chisinau. Mark Owen speaks to Clara Volintiru at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. She says that Russian interference did not represent a 'critical mass' in the vote.
Moldova’s president bet big on the EU referendum. It may cost her dearly
ANALYSIS
Moldova has voted to enshrine its EU membership aspirations in the nation’s constitution by a razor-thin margin after a campaign awash with accusations of Russian interference and political repression. It’s an awkward moment for President Maia Sandu, who organised the vote to coincide with her own bid for re-election – and failed to win the absolute majority needed to triumph in the first round.
Issued on: 21/10/2024 -
ANALYSIS
Moldova has voted to enshrine its EU membership aspirations in the nation’s constitution by a razor-thin margin after a campaign awash with accusations of Russian interference and political repression. It’s an awkward moment for President Maia Sandu, who organised the vote to coincide with her own bid for re-election – and failed to win the absolute majority needed to triumph in the first round.
Issued on: 21/10/2024 -
AFP
By: Paul MILLAR
Ultimately, he said, many voters may well have seen the EU membership not just as a referendum on the country’s geopolitical future but on the performance of the president herself.
“I think the referendum was put together with the presidential election to just consolidate Maia Sandu’s image as the pro-European politician,” he said. “As much as the current government wanted to transform the referendum into a kind of existential question – EU or Russia, or whatever – people understood that basically the referendum was about re-electing Maia Sandu. And because of that, the results of the referendum in my mind should not be read only as ‘the country’s divided’, but also as a criticism towards the current government.”
Despite the government’s efforts to frame both votes as a stark choice between East and West, Polianskii said, the choice facing voters had been rather more restricted.
“What’s really interesting in these elections, and without precedent really, is that candidates who directly or indirectly maintain reasonably good ties with Moscow did not field a single candidate,” he said. “The pro-Russian opposition is now divided, and the war in Ukraine is one of the central reasons for it. The ex-general prosecutor Stoianoglo is often portrayed as a ‘Moscow-candidate’ but he has been and remains a staunch supporter of European integration … So Russia does not really have a candidate in this race, even though some candidates tried – very cautiously – to connect to the pro-Russian electorate, like Gagauzia.”
Having swept to power in 2020 on a pro-European, anti-corruption platform, Sandu has fought a bitter campaign against what she describes as Russian influence in Moldova. Some of the measures have been severe. In June this year, Sandu approved broad changes to the legal definition of “high treason” that, Amnesty International said, “risks criminalising views and opinions that should be protected under international law”.
A political party linked to the disgraced oligarch Shor was ruled “unconstitutional” and banned last year after having organised anti-government demonstrations in the capital Chisinau. A number of Russian-language TV stations and social media channels connected to Shor – or, in some cases, just accused of being part of Russia's "information war" against the country – have also been shut down in recent months.
Stoianoglo has also sought to push his credentials as a victim of political persecution. After Sandu’s Action and Solidarity Party won the 2021 parliamentary elections, they dismissed him from his role as prosecutor general, accusing him of failing to investigate high-profile oligarchs. The decision became an embarrassment when the government awkwardly failed to produce evidence that Stoianoglo was linked to the oligarchs in question, and a scandal when the European Court of Human Rights ruled that he’d been denied the right to a fair trial.
This has not stopped the authorities from continuing to take legal action against the former prosecutor general. Three days after declaring his candidacy for president, a Moldovan court announced after 18 months of inaction that it would be proceeding with a criminal case against him for abuse of power.
“When Maia Sandu came there was also the war in Ukraine, there was the energy crisis in 2021-22, and that kind of gave them, in their minds, the green light to be harsher on their opponents – and sometimes that harshness was not justified,” Sprinceana said.
By: Paul MILLAR
Moldova's incumbent President and presidential candidate Maia Sandu attends a news briefing dedicated to the preliminary results of a presidential election and a referendum on joining the European Union, in Chisinau, Moldova October 21, 2024. © Vladislav Culiomza, Reuters
It wasn’t until the final votes trickled in from Moldova’s far-flung diaspora that the final decision became clear. By an eyelash-thin margin of 50.46 percent, Moldovan voters at home and abroad had cast their ballots calling for the dream of EU membership to be enshrined in the nation’s constitution, nudging the country of some 2.6 million people on an irreversible path to a European future. As mandates go, they don’t come much more meagre.
“While support for EU integration remains high, it is fragile, as the referendum results demonstrate,” said Mikhail Polianskii, a research associate with the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt. “This result is not entirely unexpected, given where Ukraine finds itself 10 years after its ‘European moment’ of Euromaidan. Generally, the polls demonstrate that Moldovans do not support either Russia or Ukraine in this war – the majority wants ‘peace’ in their neighborhood, even though there is an unprecedented amount of Ukrainians now living in Moldova.”
It was a punch to the gut for Moldovan President Maia Sandu – one poll last month had put public support for the pro-EU camp at a convincing 63 percent. The disappointments kept coming. The former World Bank economist had organised the non-binding referendum for the same day as the country’s presidential election. Although a marked improvement on her 2020 election result, Sandu’s final score of just over 42 percent fell short of the absolute majority she needed to become the first Moldovan president to be elected for two terms.
Instead, bruised and furious, she will be heading into a frantic second round in just two weeks’ time, pitting her against former prosecutor general Alexander Stoianoglo, who won a better-than-expected 26 percent of the vote on the Party of Socialists’ slate. Depending on the decisions made by the rival opposition camps over the next fortnight, it could be tight – Renato Usatii, who came third with just under 14 percent, backed Sandu in 2020. He has said he’s unlikely to do it again.
Speaking before the final results were announced, Sandu was quick to praise both outcomes as hard-fought victories in the face of the full weight of Russian interference. Sandu has said the government has “clear evidence” that foreign-backed criminal groups had tried to buy off 300,000 voters in a cynical effort to throw Moldova’s Western realignment off kilter.
The allegations echo the announcement by Moldovan police earlier in October that Israeli-Moldovan oligarch and former politician Ilan Shor, now living in Russia after having been sentenced in absentia to 15 years’ in prison on graft charges, was involved in a network responsible for transferring $15 million in Russian funds to 130,000 Moldovans in an attempt to buy their votes ahead of the polls.
Shor has rejected the characterisation of these “pension top-ups” as voter bribery, and the Russian government denies all meddling in Moldova’s political processes. The Kremlin has called on Sandu to provide evidence to back up allegations of electoral fraud, while also casting suspicion on the abrupt rise in support for Sandu and the pro-EU campaign as the final diaspora votes came in.
Moldova, which applied for EU membership status in March 2022 following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, has had a complicated relationship with its neighbours. Now lying between Ukraine and Romania, with whom it shares a language, the lands now called Moldova spent more than a century under Russian imperial rule before declaring independence in the aftermath of the Russian Revolution. The fledgling nation joined greater Romania three months later, though it still held onto a distinct cultural identity right up until its annexation by the Soviet Union under the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact with Nazi Germany.
The Soviet Union’s collapse in the last years of the 20th century splintered the country further, with the Russian-backed breakaway state of Transnistria declaring its independence on the east banks of the Dniester River. The region of Gagauzia, largely peopled by Turkic communities who have maintained close cultural ties with Russia, also enjoys an uneasy autonomy. Since independence, the impoverished nation has struggled to strike a balance between its disparate communities, each with distinct – and competing – connections to the country’s patchwork past.
“In Moldova, significant opposition is rooted in concerns over economic stability and cultural identity, possible loss of independence to Romania and possible effects of decoupling from Russia – as the country remains extremely dependent on Russia economically in some key areas,” Polianskii said. “The anti-EU sentiment could coalesce into a formidable challenge for the incumbent Sandu in the second round.”
Although Moldova was granted EU candidate status in June 2022, Chisinau-based sociologist Vitalie Sprinceana said these rival visions of Moldova’s history could not easily be ignored in the push for European integration.
“Since the war in Ukraine, the government in the beginning adopted, in my mind, a very good position, being very cautious – but then embraced some kind of verbal militarism that also struck a nerve in some people,” he said. “Because Moldova, whether we like it or not, is a country that is not only divided, but it holds many historical legacies, different ethnic groups with different memories, and no one has worked to put them together. And I think repressing the opposition just by saying that it is pro-Russian, that also has created a bit of a negative reaction.”
It wasn’t until the final votes trickled in from Moldova’s far-flung diaspora that the final decision became clear. By an eyelash-thin margin of 50.46 percent, Moldovan voters at home and abroad had cast their ballots calling for the dream of EU membership to be enshrined in the nation’s constitution, nudging the country of some 2.6 million people on an irreversible path to a European future. As mandates go, they don’t come much more meagre.
“While support for EU integration remains high, it is fragile, as the referendum results demonstrate,” said Mikhail Polianskii, a research associate with the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt. “This result is not entirely unexpected, given where Ukraine finds itself 10 years after its ‘European moment’ of Euromaidan. Generally, the polls demonstrate that Moldovans do not support either Russia or Ukraine in this war – the majority wants ‘peace’ in their neighborhood, even though there is an unprecedented amount of Ukrainians now living in Moldova.”
It was a punch to the gut for Moldovan President Maia Sandu – one poll last month had put public support for the pro-EU camp at a convincing 63 percent. The disappointments kept coming. The former World Bank economist had organised the non-binding referendum for the same day as the country’s presidential election. Although a marked improvement on her 2020 election result, Sandu’s final score of just over 42 percent fell short of the absolute majority she needed to become the first Moldovan president to be elected for two terms.
Instead, bruised and furious, she will be heading into a frantic second round in just two weeks’ time, pitting her against former prosecutor general Alexander Stoianoglo, who won a better-than-expected 26 percent of the vote on the Party of Socialists’ slate. Depending on the decisions made by the rival opposition camps over the next fortnight, it could be tight – Renato Usatii, who came third with just under 14 percent, backed Sandu in 2020. He has said he’s unlikely to do it again.
Speaking before the final results were announced, Sandu was quick to praise both outcomes as hard-fought victories in the face of the full weight of Russian interference. Sandu has said the government has “clear evidence” that foreign-backed criminal groups had tried to buy off 300,000 voters in a cynical effort to throw Moldova’s Western realignment off kilter.
The allegations echo the announcement by Moldovan police earlier in October that Israeli-Moldovan oligarch and former politician Ilan Shor, now living in Russia after having been sentenced in absentia to 15 years’ in prison on graft charges, was involved in a network responsible for transferring $15 million in Russian funds to 130,000 Moldovans in an attempt to buy their votes ahead of the polls.
Shor has rejected the characterisation of these “pension top-ups” as voter bribery, and the Russian government denies all meddling in Moldova’s political processes. The Kremlin has called on Sandu to provide evidence to back up allegations of electoral fraud, while also casting suspicion on the abrupt rise in support for Sandu and the pro-EU campaign as the final diaspora votes came in.
Moldova, which applied for EU membership status in March 2022 following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, has had a complicated relationship with its neighbours. Now lying between Ukraine and Romania, with whom it shares a language, the lands now called Moldova spent more than a century under Russian imperial rule before declaring independence in the aftermath of the Russian Revolution. The fledgling nation joined greater Romania three months later, though it still held onto a distinct cultural identity right up until its annexation by the Soviet Union under the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact with Nazi Germany.
The Soviet Union’s collapse in the last years of the 20th century splintered the country further, with the Russian-backed breakaway state of Transnistria declaring its independence on the east banks of the Dniester River. The region of Gagauzia, largely peopled by Turkic communities who have maintained close cultural ties with Russia, also enjoys an uneasy autonomy. Since independence, the impoverished nation has struggled to strike a balance between its disparate communities, each with distinct – and competing – connections to the country’s patchwork past.
“In Moldova, significant opposition is rooted in concerns over economic stability and cultural identity, possible loss of independence to Romania and possible effects of decoupling from Russia – as the country remains extremely dependent on Russia economically in some key areas,” Polianskii said. “The anti-EU sentiment could coalesce into a formidable challenge for the incumbent Sandu in the second round.”
Although Moldova was granted EU candidate status in June 2022, Chisinau-based sociologist Vitalie Sprinceana said these rival visions of Moldova’s history could not easily be ignored in the push for European integration.
“Since the war in Ukraine, the government in the beginning adopted, in my mind, a very good position, being very cautious – but then embraced some kind of verbal militarism that also struck a nerve in some people,” he said. “Because Moldova, whether we like it or not, is a country that is not only divided, but it holds many historical legacies, different ethnic groups with different memories, and no one has worked to put them together. And I think repressing the opposition just by saying that it is pro-Russian, that also has created a bit of a negative reaction.”
Ultimately, he said, many voters may well have seen the EU membership not just as a referendum on the country’s geopolitical future but on the performance of the president herself.
“I think the referendum was put together with the presidential election to just consolidate Maia Sandu’s image as the pro-European politician,” he said. “As much as the current government wanted to transform the referendum into a kind of existential question – EU or Russia, or whatever – people understood that basically the referendum was about re-electing Maia Sandu. And because of that, the results of the referendum in my mind should not be read only as ‘the country’s divided’, but also as a criticism towards the current government.”
Despite the government’s efforts to frame both votes as a stark choice between East and West, Polianskii said, the choice facing voters had been rather more restricted.
“What’s really interesting in these elections, and without precedent really, is that candidates who directly or indirectly maintain reasonably good ties with Moscow did not field a single candidate,” he said. “The pro-Russian opposition is now divided, and the war in Ukraine is one of the central reasons for it. The ex-general prosecutor Stoianoglo is often portrayed as a ‘Moscow-candidate’ but he has been and remains a staunch supporter of European integration … So Russia does not really have a candidate in this race, even though some candidates tried – very cautiously – to connect to the pro-Russian electorate, like Gagauzia.”
Having swept to power in 2020 on a pro-European, anti-corruption platform, Sandu has fought a bitter campaign against what she describes as Russian influence in Moldova. Some of the measures have been severe. In June this year, Sandu approved broad changes to the legal definition of “high treason” that, Amnesty International said, “risks criminalising views and opinions that should be protected under international law”.
A political party linked to the disgraced oligarch Shor was ruled “unconstitutional” and banned last year after having organised anti-government demonstrations in the capital Chisinau. A number of Russian-language TV stations and social media channels connected to Shor – or, in some cases, just accused of being part of Russia's "information war" against the country – have also been shut down in recent months.
Stoianoglo has also sought to push his credentials as a victim of political persecution. After Sandu’s Action and Solidarity Party won the 2021 parliamentary elections, they dismissed him from his role as prosecutor general, accusing him of failing to investigate high-profile oligarchs. The decision became an embarrassment when the government awkwardly failed to produce evidence that Stoianoglo was linked to the oligarchs in question, and a scandal when the European Court of Human Rights ruled that he’d been denied the right to a fair trial.
This has not stopped the authorities from continuing to take legal action against the former prosecutor general. Three days after declaring his candidacy for president, a Moldovan court announced after 18 months of inaction that it would be proceeding with a criminal case against him for abuse of power.
“When Maia Sandu came there was also the war in Ukraine, there was the energy crisis in 2021-22, and that kind of gave them, in their minds, the green light to be harsher on their opponents – and sometimes that harshness was not justified,” Sprinceana said.
02:18
This hardline approach to curbing what the government considers “destabilising” political activities may have put off voters already frustrated with the government’s slow progress on anti-corruption measures and judicial reform.
“Sandu’s approach towards purging pro-Russian influences from politics has indeed been contentious,” Polianskii said. “Her administration’s actions against the Shor party and similar entities have raised concerns about fairness of political process in the country, potentially alienating voters who view these efforts as politically motivated rather than purely legal or ethical measures.”
Ultimately, Polianskii said, Sandu’s odds of getting elected to a historic second term rest on her ability to consolidate her support base at home and abroad – and strike urgently needed deals with a handful of erstwhile political rivals.
“Overall, the chances that she will win in the second round are still quite high,” he said. “Even if defeat cannot be completely ruled out – as her ‘negative’ rating is quickly closing in on her support numbers.”
This hardline approach to curbing what the government considers “destabilising” political activities may have put off voters already frustrated with the government’s slow progress on anti-corruption measures and judicial reform.
“Sandu’s approach towards purging pro-Russian influences from politics has indeed been contentious,” Polianskii said. “Her administration’s actions against the Shor party and similar entities have raised concerns about fairness of political process in the country, potentially alienating voters who view these efforts as politically motivated rather than purely legal or ethical measures.”
Ultimately, Polianskii said, Sandu’s odds of getting elected to a historic second term rest on her ability to consolidate her support base at home and abroad – and strike urgently needed deals with a handful of erstwhile political rivals.
“Overall, the chances that she will win in the second round are still quite high,” he said. “Even if defeat cannot be completely ruled out – as her ‘negative’ rating is quickly closing in on her support numbers.”
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