Russia is set to lose over 1,000 troops a day through the winter as it fights a war on three fronts: UK MOD

Matthew Loh
Tue, October 8, 2024 

Ukraine is set for another fierce winter as Russia is expected to keep up the pressure.


It'll come at a cost for Moscow: Over 1,000 wounded or dead troops per day, the UK MOD said on Monday.


British officials said Russia has likely suffered over 648,000 casualties since the war began.

The UK Defense Ministry expects Russia to lose 1,000 or more troops per day in the coming winter, saying Moscow will likely keep trying to overwhelm Ukraine in the next months despite difficult conditions.

"Russia's casualty rate will likely continue to average above 1,000 a day for the rest of 2024 despite the onset of winter," the ministry said in an update posted on Monday, referring to soldiers who are wounded or killed in battle.

"To date, winter conditions have not resulted in a reduction of offensive operations or attrition rates due to Russia's reliance on dismounted tactics and a lack of maneuver warfare, which requires better conditions," it added.

The ministry has for several months flagged that Russia is suffering a far higher casualty rate compared to previous years as it relies on mass to grind its way to victory in Ukraine.

The New York Times reported in June that Western intelligence agencies estimated Russian daily losses to have averaged 1,000 wounded or killed troops in May.

Ukraine had also reported that May was one of Russia's worst months, saying the Kremlin suffered over 1,200 casualties per day.

In a separate note on its Monday update, the UK defense ministry cited this data and said Ukrainian forces now estimate that Russian losses in September were even higher, at 1,271 killed or wounded per day.

"Since the start of the conflict Russia has likely suffered over 648,000 casualties," the ministry wrote.

Officials posted a chart of Russia's monthly daily average losses since the war began, indicating a progressive increase year on year.

They wrote that the sharp jump in losses is likely due to Russia and Ukraine opening new fronts in Kharkiv and Kursk, along with intensified fighting on the eastern front, where Russia has been pushing hard to take the key towns of Pokrovsk and Vuhledar in Donetsk.

"Russian forces highly likely continue to attempt to stretch Ukrainian forces by utilizing mass to overwhelm defensive positions and achieve tactical gains," the ministry added.

Russian troops took Vuhledar in early October after two years of fighting. Some of the war's bloodiest clashes unfolded at the Ukrainian stronghold, including a failed assault by elite Russian marines who were nearly wiped out and an ill-fated tank column rush that ended with Moscow losing over 130 armored vehicles.

An aerial view of the battered Vuhledar in December.Libkos/Getty Images)

But Russian troops managed to seize nearby towns and surround Vuhledar in June, in a sign of heightened pressure against the Ukrainian forces this year as Russian leader Vladimir Putin focuses his country's economy on the war.

The Kremlin has been aggressively recruiting fresh troops to offset its losses and, in some areas, paying top dollar in sign-on bonuses that rival the US military.

Draft documents reported by Russian media in September indicate that authorities plan to spend up to 40% of the nation's overall budget on its military and national security.

It's unclear how long Russia can sustain that effort. Still, some economists say such war spending is the only thing keeping the country from a recession, as it becomes increasingly isolated from the world economy and suffers a brain drain.

Russia's defense ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment sent outside regular business hours by Business Insider.

Business Insider


Deadliest month for Russian army as ‘meat wave’ assaults take their toll

James Kilner

TELEGRAM
Mon, October 7, 2024 at 11:52 AM MDT·2 min read
519


Ukrainian servicemen fire a cannon towards Russian positions last month - GENYA SAVILOV

September was the deadliest month for Russia’s army since the start of the war in Ukraine, British military intelligence said on Monday.

The average casualty rate for the Russian army rose to 1,271 soldiers killed or badly injured per day.

Previously, the highest daily casualty rate for Russian soldiers had been in May, with an average of 1,262 soldiers killed or injured.

“The increase in the casualty rate since May 2024 is almost certainly due to the extension of the combat zone to include both Kharkiv and Kursk military operations, and increased intensity along the frontline,” the Ministry of Defence said.

Russian soldiers carry an ammunition to their Pion self-propelled cannon to fire towards Ukrainian positions at an undisclosed location - Russian Defense Ministry Press Service

Russia launched a surprise invasion of the Kharkiv region from its Belgorod region in May, while its forces suffered high casualties attempting to repel Ukraine’s ongoing incursion into the Kursk region.

September was also the fifth consecutive month that Russian casualties averaged more than 1,000 soldiers per day.

Analysts said that the high casualty rate was linked to Russian mass infantry tactics, often involving “meat wave” assaults where large numbers of troops are sent to storm Ukrainian defensive positions.

“I expect Russia to continue to grind forward, probing for weakness. Very grim. We can’t expect a Russia pause over the winter,” said John Foreman, Britain’s former defence attache in Moscow.


The MoD said that Russia had now lost nearly 650,000 soldiers since its invasion in February 2022. Its casualties averaged between 172 and 559 per day in 2022, then peaked at 967 in 2023.

“Russian forces will highly likely continue to attempt to stretch Ukrainian forces by utilising mass to overwhelm defensive positions,” it said.

Over the past 14 months, Russia has been making steady gains in eastern Ukraine, but at a high cost.

Last week, Russia captured the shattered town of Vuhledar from Ukraine after a lengthy battle including two failed past attempts.


The town, once considered a “fortress”, had never before been captured and it marked the most significant battlefield victory since Kremlin troops took control of Avdiivka in February.

Analysts warned that Russian forces will now be able to use the town as a launchpad to capture other Ukrainian strongholds to the west.

In the Kharkiv region, a pro-Ukrainian Russian activist-turned-soldier was killed fighting for Kyiv’s forces on Saturday.

Ildar Dadin was well-known in anti-Kremlin circles for being the first person sent to prison under tightened 2014 laws against anti-government protests in Russia. He had been fighting for a volunteer battalion since 2023.