Gender gap: How the US election is becoming a battle of the sexes
EXPLAINER
The 2024 US election is shaping up to be one marked by a significant gender divide: while Donald Trump holds a significant advantage with the male electorate, Kamala Harris commands a comparable lead among women. As both candidates seek to mobilise possible voters, the stakes for women have never been higher.
Issued on: 30/10/2024 -
By: Lara BULLENS
AFP
Supporters wait for the start of a Democratic campaign rally in Washington DC on October 29, 2024. © Kent Nishimura, Getty Images via AFP
Word of a grassroots campaign began to spread on social media late last month. Post-it notes encouraging voters to cast a ballot for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris were found stuck on the backs of toilet stalls, tampon boxes and diaper bags. Each message varied slightly, but most began with a conspiratorial appeal: “Woman to woman”, they read, before adding: “No one sees your vote at the polls” and then signing off with “Harris/Walz 2024”.
Now, ready-made sticky notes endorsing the Democratic ticket are even available for sale on Amazon.
While nobody knows who initiated the viral campaign, the Post-its are targeting women in Republican areas of the US, the so-called red states. It is part of a last-ditch effort to whisper to right-leaning female voters who fear reprisals from their husbands should they choose not to vote for Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Poll after poll has found a gaping gender gap in the 2024 US presidential election. Though more women supporting Democrats than Republicans is not a new phenomenon, the gender gap has grown over recent decades – especially among young voters.
With only one week to go until Election Day and an extremely tight race ahead, a whisper campaign could be enough to tip either candidate over the finish line.
Micro-targeting to fight the odds
“The margins are too small … So one or two points is huge. It does not sound huge, but it is,” said Ellen Kountz, author of “Vice Presidential Portraits: The Incredible Story of Kamala Harris” and dean of the finance department at the INSEEC business school.
Hence the Post-it campaign. Kountz explained that such “micro-targeting” – when Democrat or Republican campaigners zoom in on a specific group of electors they feel are on the fence – can be very efficient. “Joe Biden won with 11,000 votes in Georgia,” Kountz recalled of the 2020 election that saw the current Democratic president take over the White House.
Efforts to sway Republic women to vote for Harris were on full display when Republican former congresswoman Liz Cheney toured with the vice president, encouraging conservative suburban women to snub Trump.
“You can vote your conscience and not ever have to say a word to anybody,” Cheney told crowds on the second of three events in Michigan on October 21.
Read moreRepublican Liz Cheney rallies with Harris, urges voters to reject Trump's 'cruelty'
Quinnipiac University polling done throughout October in five key swing states showed Harris leading significantly among female voters while Trump held the same advantage among male voters.
“The women’s vote will be decisive this election,” Katherine Tate, a political science professor at Brown University, shared in a recent panel on what to expect on Election Day.
“If Harris wins, it will because women elected her,” Tate added.
There is also the question of voter turnout. Women have consistently registered and voted at higher rates than men in every presidential election since 1980, according to the Center for American Women and Politics.
So far, women are outpacing men in early turnout. According to Politico and data from the University of Florida’s United States Election Project, there is so far a 10-point gender gap in early voting in Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. And this holds true across the political spectrum: Republican women are also voting early.
The Harris camp has expressed optimism over the gender makeup of early voting and is now focusing on convincing moderate suburban women as well as non-college-educated White women in the final days of the campaign. The hope, it seems, is that these women will turn out en masse the way they did in the 2022 midterm elections.
“There are two gender gaps. One is related to presidential preferences, with women more likely to support the Democratic ticket and men more likely to support the Republican ticket. But then there is a huge gap in the last 20 years or so with women turning out in more consistent and higher rates [to vote],” said Susanne Schwarz, professor of political science at Swarthmore College.
“I think we will see a record turnout of women for this election. We have already seen a record number of young women registering to vote. The gender gap in turnout is probably going to widen in this election,” Schwarz added.
Widening divide among young voters
The gender divide across political lines in the US is particularly stark among young voters. It is a surprising trend, given that the majority of young people voted for Biden in the previous election – regardless of gender.
Some 66 percent of women ages 18 to 39 said they were likely to vote for Harris in an ABC/Ipsos poll published on October 27 compared to only 32 percent for Trump. But only 46 percent of men from the same age bracket planned to vote for Harris and 51 percent for Trump.
A gap of this size for young people did not exist a generation ago, let alone an election ago.
It is partly explained by a broader trend of young women becoming more progressive than their male counterparts, recent research has revealed. A recent Gallup poll found that young women in the United States have become significantly more liberal than young men since Trump was elected in 2016.
Read moreUS elections explainer: The seven battleground states to watch in 2024
Young women’s ideological shift to the left can be explained by a multitude of factors. The #MeToo movement in 2017 put a spotlight on sexual violence and harassment. Women became more galvanised politically over the years too, especially after Roe v Wade was overturned in June 2022, putting an end to women’s federal right to abortion. And their liberalism has also been reflected in their stances on the environment, unease with lax gun laws and race relations, according to Gallup.
“On average, we see women endorsing a little more community-oriented, social programme-oriented platforms and candidates who display that. Whereas Trump has been very good at tapping into this long tradition of individualism in the US, promising that he will lift you up,” Schwarz said.
On the other hand, young men “often feel like if they ask questions they are labelled as misogynist, homophobic or racist” and then they “get sucked into a 'bro-culture'” as a result, John Della Volpe, the director of polling at the Harvard Institute of Politics, told BBC News.
But what this could mean for this year’s election outcome is unclear, Schwarz said. “It depends on the turnout rate among young voters … They are the group who are least likely to turn out,” she noted.
Shifting gender roles and masculinity
Trump has cast himself as a vengeful protector ahead of the 2024 presidential election. “I am your warrior. I am your justice,” he declared at CPAC, the annual gathering for conservatives. At a late September campaign rally in Indiana, he told women, “I will be your protector,” adding that they will be “happy, healthy, confident and free” and, as a result, will “no longer be thinking about abortion”.
His goal, some say, is to appeal to men who feel that traditional masculinity is under threat. And it seems those efforts – notably backed by billionaire Elon Musk – are resonating with male voters. According to a CBS News poll result released on October 27, men are more inclined to say efforts to promote gender equality have gone too far in the US.
This may be even more the case with young men who are shifting to the right of the political spectrum. New York Times reporter Claire Cain Miller recently interviewed young voters for The Daily podcast and found that a core driver in young men was wanting to provide for a family, and that many felt this is not possible in the current economy. Though they may not have families yet, being a provider seemed to strike at the core of their identity.
“I feel like you’re not a man until you have to take care of other people. Being able to financially and emotionally support those around you makes you a man,” 20-year-old Ranger Erwin, based in Las Vegas, told Miller.
Word of a grassroots campaign began to spread on social media late last month. Post-it notes encouraging voters to cast a ballot for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris were found stuck on the backs of toilet stalls, tampon boxes and diaper bags. Each message varied slightly, but most began with a conspiratorial appeal: “Woman to woman”, they read, before adding: “No one sees your vote at the polls” and then signing off with “Harris/Walz 2024”.
Now, ready-made sticky notes endorsing the Democratic ticket are even available for sale on Amazon.
While nobody knows who initiated the viral campaign, the Post-its are targeting women in Republican areas of the US, the so-called red states. It is part of a last-ditch effort to whisper to right-leaning female voters who fear reprisals from their husbands should they choose not to vote for Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Poll after poll has found a gaping gender gap in the 2024 US presidential election. Though more women supporting Democrats than Republicans is not a new phenomenon, the gender gap has grown over recent decades – especially among young voters.
With only one week to go until Election Day and an extremely tight race ahead, a whisper campaign could be enough to tip either candidate over the finish line.
Micro-targeting to fight the odds
“The margins are too small … So one or two points is huge. It does not sound huge, but it is,” said Ellen Kountz, author of “Vice Presidential Portraits: The Incredible Story of Kamala Harris” and dean of the finance department at the INSEEC business school.
Hence the Post-it campaign. Kountz explained that such “micro-targeting” – when Democrat or Republican campaigners zoom in on a specific group of electors they feel are on the fence – can be very efficient. “Joe Biden won with 11,000 votes in Georgia,” Kountz recalled of the 2020 election that saw the current Democratic president take over the White House.
Efforts to sway Republic women to vote for Harris were on full display when Republican former congresswoman Liz Cheney toured with the vice president, encouraging conservative suburban women to snub Trump.
“You can vote your conscience and not ever have to say a word to anybody,” Cheney told crowds on the second of three events in Michigan on October 21.
Read moreRepublican Liz Cheney rallies with Harris, urges voters to reject Trump's 'cruelty'
Quinnipiac University polling done throughout October in five key swing states showed Harris leading significantly among female voters while Trump held the same advantage among male voters.
“The women’s vote will be decisive this election,” Katherine Tate, a political science professor at Brown University, shared in a recent panel on what to expect on Election Day.
“If Harris wins, it will because women elected her,” Tate added.
There is also the question of voter turnout. Women have consistently registered and voted at higher rates than men in every presidential election since 1980, according to the Center for American Women and Politics.
So far, women are outpacing men in early turnout. According to Politico and data from the University of Florida’s United States Election Project, there is so far a 10-point gender gap in early voting in Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. And this holds true across the political spectrum: Republican women are also voting early.
The Harris camp has expressed optimism over the gender makeup of early voting and is now focusing on convincing moderate suburban women as well as non-college-educated White women in the final days of the campaign. The hope, it seems, is that these women will turn out en masse the way they did in the 2022 midterm elections.
“There are two gender gaps. One is related to presidential preferences, with women more likely to support the Democratic ticket and men more likely to support the Republican ticket. But then there is a huge gap in the last 20 years or so with women turning out in more consistent and higher rates [to vote],” said Susanne Schwarz, professor of political science at Swarthmore College.
“I think we will see a record turnout of women for this election. We have already seen a record number of young women registering to vote. The gender gap in turnout is probably going to widen in this election,” Schwarz added.
Widening divide among young voters
The gender divide across political lines in the US is particularly stark among young voters. It is a surprising trend, given that the majority of young people voted for Biden in the previous election – regardless of gender.
Some 66 percent of women ages 18 to 39 said they were likely to vote for Harris in an ABC/Ipsos poll published on October 27 compared to only 32 percent for Trump. But only 46 percent of men from the same age bracket planned to vote for Harris and 51 percent for Trump.
A gap of this size for young people did not exist a generation ago, let alone an election ago.
It is partly explained by a broader trend of young women becoming more progressive than their male counterparts, recent research has revealed. A recent Gallup poll found that young women in the United States have become significantly more liberal than young men since Trump was elected in 2016.
Read moreUS elections explainer: The seven battleground states to watch in 2024
Young women’s ideological shift to the left can be explained by a multitude of factors. The #MeToo movement in 2017 put a spotlight on sexual violence and harassment. Women became more galvanised politically over the years too, especially after Roe v Wade was overturned in June 2022, putting an end to women’s federal right to abortion. And their liberalism has also been reflected in their stances on the environment, unease with lax gun laws and race relations, according to Gallup.
“On average, we see women endorsing a little more community-oriented, social programme-oriented platforms and candidates who display that. Whereas Trump has been very good at tapping into this long tradition of individualism in the US, promising that he will lift you up,” Schwarz said.
On the other hand, young men “often feel like if they ask questions they are labelled as misogynist, homophobic or racist” and then they “get sucked into a 'bro-culture'” as a result, John Della Volpe, the director of polling at the Harvard Institute of Politics, told BBC News.
But what this could mean for this year’s election outcome is unclear, Schwarz said. “It depends on the turnout rate among young voters … They are the group who are least likely to turn out,” she noted.
Shifting gender roles and masculinity
Trump has cast himself as a vengeful protector ahead of the 2024 presidential election. “I am your warrior. I am your justice,” he declared at CPAC, the annual gathering for conservatives. At a late September campaign rally in Indiana, he told women, “I will be your protector,” adding that they will be “happy, healthy, confident and free” and, as a result, will “no longer be thinking about abortion”.
His goal, some say, is to appeal to men who feel that traditional masculinity is under threat. And it seems those efforts – notably backed by billionaire Elon Musk – are resonating with male voters. According to a CBS News poll result released on October 27, men are more inclined to say efforts to promote gender equality have gone too far in the US.
This may be even more the case with young men who are shifting to the right of the political spectrum. New York Times reporter Claire Cain Miller recently interviewed young voters for The Daily podcast and found that a core driver in young men was wanting to provide for a family, and that many felt this is not possible in the current economy. Though they may not have families yet, being a provider seemed to strike at the core of their identity.
“I feel like you’re not a man until you have to take care of other people. Being able to financially and emotionally support those around you makes you a man,” 20-year-old Ranger Erwin, based in Las Vegas, told Miller.
01:47Meanwhile, Harris is appealing to an entirely different form of masculinity. In contrast to the image of a hyper-masculine protector, Tim Walz, the vice presidential candidate, perfectly embodies the image of a kind and caring American dad.
“There is a new kind of male persona that is being put forward,” Kountz remarked. “Kamala is surrounded by strong men, but not macho men. Like Tim Waltz. He is a gun-toting hunter, but he is also No. 2 to a woman,” she said.
“I would almost say those are new gender roles. And the Republicans are doing an exaggerated, toxic and hyper masculinity, which I don’t think in the end is helpful for them,” Kountz said.
Harris is breaking traditional gender stereotypes in her own way. “A great example is Kamala and her gun,” Kountz said, referring to when Harris revealed she was a gun owner during the presidential debate on September 10.
“I don’t think people think of Black ladies with guns … It breaks gender codes.”
“We are conditioned to want to hold on to these traditional roles and ideas of gender, but a lot has moved,” Kountz pointed out. “Kamala does not even speak about being a woman.”
With such a close race, it is difficult to say which strategy will bear the most fruit. For Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, who spoke to Vox in an interview on October 26, what is certain is that “the formula for victory is to win women by more than you lose men”.
‘She was on the front lines’: In California, friends remember a young Kamala Harris
Kamala Harris may be a familiar face in Washington, but her roots run deep on the other side of the country, in California’s Bay Area. That’s where her early years and career laid the foundation for her political ascension. France 24’s Wassim Cornet traveled to the region to speak with some of the people who have known her the longest.
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