‘We need clarity more than ever’: Georgia’s murky elections and the West’s dilemma

Analysis

In the aftermath of last weekend's disputed parliamentary election results in Georgia, some observers say the West needs to be more robust in condemning electoral fraud and sanctioning the parties involved. Others say the full picture needs to be established. The stakes are high for the West as a vital foothold in the Caucasus pivots to Russia.

Issued on: 01/11/2024 - 
By: Sonya CIESNIK

FRANCE24/AFP

Georgian opposition supporters rally to protest results of the parliamentary elections that showed a win for the ruling Georgian Dream party outside the parliament building in central Tbilisi on October 28, 2024. © Vano Shlamov, AFP

In the late hours of Saturday, October 26, the initial optimism among Georgia's opposition and pro-democracy activists rapidly began to deflate. The buoyant atmosphere turned into one of frustration and disappointment when the Central Election Commission (CEC) pronounced the results of the country’s parliamentary election.

Earlier independent polling had predicted the four pro-European opposition groups would overcome the increasingly authoritarian ruling Georgian Dream party. Yet the official outcome showed Georgian Dream had won 54 percent of the vote, the best score in its 12-year rule.

The four opposition parties, which collectively won 37 percent of the vote, refused to recognise the results, alleging “falsification”.

Georgia's pro-Western President Salome Zurabishvili went even further, saying the election was a “total robbery of votes”. Her call for an opposition rally led tens of thousands of people to pour into the streets two days after the vote.


European authorities have demanded a full investigation into what happened leading up to the election and the day of the vote. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken joined the growing chorus in a recent statement.

Activist and diplomatic sources from Georgia and the rest of Europe have said these declarations are not enough, and that Georgian Dream should be sanctioned. Others said Brussels and Washington should wait until a full picture of rigged elections emerges before making a move.

The stakes are high, with the southern Caucasus state gravitating toward Russia and the West potentially losing a vital trade route and energy corridor.

Drifting toward Moscow

“Georgian Dream has always won through ambiguity and lack of clarity;” said Marika Makiashvili, a Georgian researcher and political activist. Governing a largely pro-Western population, the party led by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili ostensibly maintained Georgians’ hopes of integrating the EU while gradually taking over state institutions and restoring relations with the Kremlin.

Read moreBidzina Ivanishvili, Georgia’s billionaire puppet master of the pro-Russia vote

In the run-up to the elections, Georgian Dream ominously presented the vote as a choice between being dragged into a war with Russia under governance of the opposition parties or peace, under its rule. The tactic appears to have been successful with, “some overlap between those who typically vote for EU integration and those who voted for Georgian Dream”, Makiashvili said.

“We need clarity more than ever before ... In Georgian society, Western legitimacy matters. Sanctions and travel bans on family members [of Ivanishvili’s inner circle and Georgian Dream senior officials] will speed up the process of autocratic dissolution,” she said.

Yet the West appears to lack the conviction and cohesion for a showdown with the Ivanishvili regime. It was “unfortunate”, noted a recent Financial Times editorial, that the first European leader to visit Tbilisi following the elections was Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. The visit, though unilateral, carried symbolic weight since Hungary currently holds the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union.

Other authoritarians presented their congratulations to Georgian Dream soon after the vote. “Russia was celebrating with Georgian Dream, not because they care about the party – they don’t – but because they consider this to be Russia’s win and the West’s loss,” said Natalie Sabandze, a former Georgian ambassador to the EU now at the Chatham House think tank.
Too little, too late?

“Zurabishvili strongly feels that these elections do not represent the will of the people and that there were too many incidents. So, she is stepping up and saying, ‘we need to sort this out’,” said Sabandze.

Zurabishvili said on FRANCE 24 that last Monday’s protests were a sign that the population is rejecting the election result.

The alleged electoral fraud came after Georgian Dream triggered mass protests by ramming a “foreign agent” law through parliament last May. The law requires any organisation receiving at least 20 percent of its financing from abroad to register as “pursuing the interests of a foreign power”. The law was widely seen as mimicking one that had been passed in Russia.

With Georgian Dream insisting it won the elections and the opposition parties preparing to hold a new protest next week, “the EU should be a fair arbitrator”, said Sabandze.

Yet when a vote is rigged, a major problem is that “most of the job is done months before the election”, said the former ambassador. “It happens when you decide how the Central Election Commission is formed, when steps are taken to ensure the playing field is being tilted in favour of the incumbency and with other factors such as informal pressure.”

“Maybe there are people today who want to come out and say they were pressured, to create a picture of a rigged election,” said Sabandze, who advocates emphasis on the long-term electoral process in Georgia.

A larger geopolitical battle

The South Caucasus has increasingly become an important region for global trade routes and the flow of energy resources, especially amid Western sanctions related to Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Many see the fight over Georgia’s course as part of a wider geopolitical struggle. “By losing Georgia [to Russia] you might lose Armenia, which is going in a similar direction, you might lose the Caucasus region, you might lose central Asia, and you open huge roads of sanctioned goods to Russia,” said Žygimantas Pavilionis, a Lithuanian diplomat.

Makiashvili agreed, saying, “if Ukraine is defending Europe through arms, what happens in Georgia decides a lot for civil society in the EU. If the Georgian people fail now, other autocrats will feel emboldened to adopt similar laws [like the foreign agent bill].”

Zurabishvili called on FRANCE 24 for Western partners to react and to launch an international investigation.

In the meantime, the West’s reaction should be to “do everything it can to bring discomfort to the regime enablers who are there for comfort and luxury”, Makiashvili said.

This would come in the form of sanctions and travel bans. “Bidzina has French citizenship and money in French banks,” said Pavilionis. “It is time for the EU to introduce sanctions on those who steal the vote.”

With its strategic location, Georgia is the EU’s anchor in central Asia. “If you are engaged in a competition, you should try to win it,” said Sabandze.

Georgian Dream has claimed victory for now, but more protests are expected in November.