AI predicts that most of the world will see temperatures rise to 3°C much faster than previously expected
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AI predicts that most of the world will see temperatures rise to 3C much faster than previously expected
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Three leading climate scientists have combined insights from 10 global climate models and, with the help of artificial intelligence (AI), conclude that regional warming thresholds are likely to be reached faster than previously estimated.
The study, published in Environmental Research Letters by IOP Publishing, projects that most land regions as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will likely surpass the critical 1.5°C threshold by 2040 or earlier. Similarly, several regions are on track to exceed the 3.0°C threshold by 2060—sooner than anticipated in earlier studies.
Regions including South Asia, the Mediterranean, Central Europe and parts of sub-Saharan Africa are expected to reach these thresholds faster, compounding risks for vulnerable ecosystems and communities.
The research, conducted by Elizabeth Barnes, professor at Colorado State University, Noah Diffenbaugh, professor at Stanford University, and Sonia Seneviratne, professor at the ETH-Zurich, used a cutting-edge AI transfer-learning approach, which integrates knowledge from multiple climate models and observations to refine previous estimates and deliver more accurate regional predictions.
Key Findings
Using AI-based transfer learning, the researchers analysed data from 10 different climate models to predict temperature increases and found:
- 34 regions are likely to exceed 1.5°C of warming by 2040.
- 31 of these 34 regions are expected to reach 2°C of warming by 2040.
- 26 of these 34 regions are projected to surpass 3°C of warming by 2060.
Elizabeth Barnes says:
“Our research underscores the importance of incorporating innovative AI techniques like transfer learning into climate modelling to potentially improve and constrain regional forecasts and provide actionable insights for policymakers, scientists, and communities worldwide.”
Noah Diffenbaugh, co-author and professor at Stanford University, added:
“It is important to focus not only on global temperature increases but also on specific changes happening in local and regional areas. By constraining when regional warming thresholds will be reached, we can more clearly anticipate the timing of specific impacts on society and ecosystems. The challenge is that regional climate change can be more uncertain, both because the climate system is inherently more noisy at smaller spatial scales and because processes in the atmosphere, ocean and land surface create uncertainty about exactly how a given region will respond to global-scale warming.”
ENDS
About Environmental Research Letters
Environmental Research Letters™ (ERL) is a high-impact, open-access journal published by IOP Publishing. The journal is intended to be the meeting place of the research and policy communities concerned with environmental change and management. ERL is dedicated to bringing together intellectual and professional scientists, economists, engineers, and social scientists, as well as the public sector, industry, and civil society, all of whom are engaged in efforts to understand the state of natural systems and, increasingly, the human footprint on the biosphere.
About IOP Publishing
IOP Publishing is a society-owned scientific publisher, delivering impact, recognition and value to the scientific community. Its purpose is to expand the world of physics, offering a portfolio of journals, ebooks, conference proceedings and science news resources globally. IOPP is a member of Purpose-Led Publishing, a coalition of society publishers who pledge to put purpose above profit.
As a wholly owned subsidiary of the Institute of Physics, a not-for-profit society, IOP Publishing supports the Institute’s work to inspire people to develop their knowledge, understanding and enjoyment of physics. Visit ioppublishing.org to learn more.
Journal
Environmental Research Letters
Method of Research
Content analysis
Article Title
AI predicts that most of the world will see temperatures rise to 3C much faster than previously expected
Article Publication Date
10-Dec-2024
AI predicts Earth’s peak warming
Artificial intelligence provides new evidence that rapid decarbonization will not prevent warming beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius. The hottest years of this century are likely to shatter recent records
Researchers have found that the global goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels is now almost certainly out of reach.
The results, published Dec. 10 in Geophysical Research Letters, suggest the hottest years ahead will very likely shatter existing heat records. There is a 50% chance, the authors reported, that global warming will breach 2 degrees Celsius even if humanity meets current goals of rapidly reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net-zero by the 2050s.
A number of previous studies, including the authoritative assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, have concluded that decarbonization at this pace would likely keep global warming below 2 degrees.
“We’ve been seeing accelerating impacts around the world in recent years, from heatwaves and heavy rainfall and other extremes. This study suggests that, even in the best case scenario, we are very likely to experience conditions that are more severe than what we’ve been dealing with recently,” said Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability climate scientist Noah Diffenbaugh, who co-authored the study with Colorado State University climate scientist Elizabeth Barnes.
This year is set to beat 2023 as Earth’s hottest year on record, with global average temperatures expected to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius or nearly 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit above the pre-industrial baseline, before people started burning fossil fuels widely to power industry. According to the new study, there is a nine-in-ten chance that the hottest year this century will be at least half a degree Celsius hotter even under rapid decarbonization.
Using AI to refine climate projections
For the new study, Diffenbaugh and Barnes trained an AI system to predict how high global temperatures could climb, depending on the pace of decarbonization.
When training the AI, the researchers used temperature and greenhouse gas data from vast archives of climate model simulations. To predict future warming, however, they gave the AI the actual historical temperatures as input, along with several widely used scenarios for future greenhouse gas emissions.
“AI is emerging as an incredibly powerful tool for reducing uncertainty in future projections. It learns from the many climate model simulations that already exist, but its predictions are then further refined by real-world observations,” said Barnes, who is a professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State.
The study adds to a growing body of research indicating that the world has almost certainly missed its chance to achieve the more ambitious goal of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, in which nearly 200 nations pledged to keep long-term warming “well below” 2 degrees while pursuing efforts to avoid 1.5 degrees.
A second new paper from Barnes and Diffenbaugh, published Dec. 10 in Environmental Research Letters with co-author Sonia Seneviratne of ETH-Zurich, suggests many regions including South Asia, the Mediterranean, Central Europe, and parts of sub-Saharan Africa will surpass 3 degrees Celsius of warming by 2060 in a scenario in which emissions continue to increase – sooner than anticipated in earlier studies.
Extremes matter
Both new studies build on 2023 research in which Diffenbaugh and Barnes predicted the years remaining until the 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius goals are breached. But because these thresholds are based on average conditions over many years, they don’t tell the full story of how extreme the climate could become.
“As we watched these severe impacts year after year, we became more and more interested in predicting how extreme the climate could get even if the world is fully successful at rapidly reducing emissions,” said Diffenbaugh, the Kara J Foundation Professor and Kimmelman Family Senior Fellow at Stanford.
For a scenario in which emissions reach net-zero in the 2050s – the most optimistic scenario widely used in climate modeling – the researchers found a nine-in-ten chance that the hottest year this century will be at least 1.8 degrees Celsius hotter globally than the pre-industrial baseline, with a two-in-three chance for at least 2.1 degrees Celsius.
For a scenario in which emissions decline too slowly to reach net-zero by 2100, Diffenbaugh and Barnes found a nine-in-ten chance that the hottest year will be 3 degrees Celsius hotter globally than the pre-industrial baseline. In this scenario, many regions could experience temperature anomalies at least triple what occurred in 2023.
Investing in adaptation
The new predictions underline the importance of investing not only in decarbonization but also in measures to make human and natural systems more resilient to severe heat, intensified drought, heavy precipitation, and other consequences of continued warming. Historically, those efforts have taken a back seat to reducing carbon emissions, with decarbonization investments outstripping adaptation spending in global climate finance and policies such as the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act.
“Our results suggest that even if all the effort and investment in decarbonization is as successful as possible, there is a real risk that, without commensurate investments in adaptation, people and ecosystems will be exposed to climate conditions that are much more extreme than what they are currently prepared for,” Diffenbaugh said.
Diffenbaugh is a professor of Earth system science in the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability and a senior fellow in the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment.
The Geophysical Research Letters study was supported by Stanford University and the Regional and Global Model Analysis program area of the U.S. DOE Office of Biological and Environmental Research as part of the Program for Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison.
The Environmental Research Letters study was supported by Stanford University, the European Union’s Horizon 2020 and Horizon Europe programs, the Swiss State Secretariat for Education, Research and Innovation (SERI), and the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment.
Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
Article Title
Data-driven Predictions of Peak Warming Under Rapid Decarbonization
Article Publication Date
10-Dec-2024
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