Wednesday, December 11, 2024

Trump Takes Aim at BRICS and the Global Economy

 December 11, 2024
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Photograph by Nathaniel St. Clair

Donald Trump, a man who never shied from bold declarations, has once again turned the global stage into a theater of economic brinkmanship. His target: the BRICS coalition, a bloc of emerging powers that includes China, Brazil, India, Russia, and South Africa (and now Iran, the UAE, Ethiopia, and Egypt as well). With more than 30 countries showing interest, BRICS is steadily challenging the traditional economic order.

Trump, in his signature style, announced on Truth Social that BRICS nations could face 100 percent tariffs should they dare to establish a unified currency or undermine the U.S. dollar. “The idea that BRICS countries are trying to move away from the Dollar while we stand by and watch is OVER,” he declared, a warning laced with the defiance that defined his presidency.

Such rhetoric, pointed and pugnacious, reveals the deep unease in Washington as this coalition’s economic clout grows. Although the notion of a BRICS currency is tantalizing, it faces formidable obstacles: economic disparities, political tensions, and the challenge of aligning diverse national interests. Yet, the use by BRICS of alternative financial systems to sidestep Western sanctions—particularly for Russia and Iran—signals a shift that could chip away at the dollar’s dominance.

Trump’s ultimatum underscores the stakes, but its efficacy remains uncertain. Will it herald a decisive policy shift or is it just more bluster? One thing is clear: the world watches as the economic landscape shifts, with the United States standing at a crossroads between strength and isolation. The consequences of this clash could echo for years to come.

Donald Trump is back to wielding the blunt instrument of economic coercion, and this time, it’s aimed squarely at BRICS. His threat to levy 100% tariffs against BRICS member if they pursue a unified currency or seek alternatives to the U.S. dollar comes just days after he proposed steep tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China to take effect on his first day in office. He has billed his threats against neighboring countries as an answer to the “crime and drugs” crossing the border and a bid to curb illegal immigration. Trump’s ultimatum to both the BRICS and key trading partners fits a pattern: the economic ultimatum as a tool of power, wielded with a blend of bravado and nationalism.

Critics predict a backlash—higher prices for consumers, strained trade deals, and possible rifts with long-standing allies. Yet Trump remains undeterred, believing that aggressive moves, draped in populist rhetoric, are the antidote to the perceived erosion of American sovereignty. Whether this strategy will be a defining moment or a prelude to deeper economic strife is the question of the hour.

Trump’s approach, a blend of coercion and protectionist fervor, echoes the “America First” mantra that propelled him to office. Yet beneath the bombast lies a complex economic calculus with potentially far-reaching consequences. The National Retail Federation (NRF) recently painted a stark picture of the fallout: American consumers could lose $78 billion in annual purchasing power. The implications of such a shift are anything but abstract. Everyday essentials—clothing, toys, appliances, even suitcases for a long-overdue vacation—would become more expensive, a burden felt in the pockets of nearly all consumers. Tariffs, as any economist will tell you, are not impenetrable barriers but shifting weights. Although importers may initially bear the brunt, these costs are rarely kept within the corporate realm. They inevitably cascade down, manifesting as higher prices at the cash register. Experts also warn that retaliatory measures could hurt industries far beyond those Trump claims to defend, leaving American workers more vulnerable.

Trump’s claim that tariffs target foreign exporters overlooks the nuanced reality of global trade. Some manufacturers might absorb the costs or shift production to avoid tariffs, but many importers, caught in the middle, pass on these expenses to consumers. For all of Trump’s talk of economic toughness, American consumers, once again, may find themselves at the center of the storm. Tariffs, as Donald Trump well knows, deliver a message—defiance, recalibration—but they are blunt instruments, echoing the populist call for fairness at a steep cost.

These tariff policies obscure deeper issues at home. The decline of U.S. manufacturing stems not just from foreign competition but from decades of neglect: an inability to modernize the workforce and respond to global changes. Blaming external forces may score points but solves nothing.

The decline of U.S. manufacturing reflects a failure to invest in workforce training, innovation, and adaptability in a world that grows ever more interconnected. While blaming external forces might yield short-term political gains, it falls short of meaningful reform. To rebuild its manufacturing base, the United States must move away from such shortsighted maneuvers and embrace strategies focused on genuine, long-term renewal.

This first appeared on FPIF.

Imran Khalid is a geostrategic analyst and columnist on international affairs. His work has been widely published by prestigious international news organizations and publications.

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