Friday, December 27, 2024

Bosnia’s EU membership hopes hinge on overcoming deep political rift

Bosnia's path to European Union membership hangs in the balance as the country faces its deepest political crisis since the 1990s war. Western powers are weighing their response after Bosnian Serb lawmakers this week moved to paralyse state institutions, threatening reforms crucial for the country's EU integration.


Bosnian Serb political leader Milorad Dodik attends a press conference in Screbrenica in May 2024. AP - Armin Durgut


By:RFI
Issued on: 27/12/2024 - 

France, Britain, Germany, Italy the European Union and the United States issued a joint statement condemning the Serb parliament's actions as "a serious threat to the country's constitutional order".

The statement warned: "At a time when formal opening of EU accession negotiations has never been so close, a return to political blockades would have negative consequences for all citizens ... a majority of whom support EU accession."

On Wednesday Republika Srpska’s (RS) regional parliament ordered Serb representatives in state institutions to obstruct decision-making and reforms required for EU integration.

The move follows an ongoing trial of RS leader Milorad Dodik, the pro-Russian nationalist leader of RS, who faces prosecution for defying decisions by High Representative Christian Schmidt – the international official tasked with overseeing Bosnia’s post-war recovery.

Dayton agreement

Lawmakers described Dodik’s trial as politically motivated and argued they were established by the peace envoy rather than through the Dayton Peace Agreement.

The 1995 Dayton accords ended years of bloody conflict that killed tens of thousands. They split Bosnia into two autonomous regions – the Serb Republic and a Federation shared by Croats and Bosniaks – under weak central government oversight.

Map of the former Yugoslavia, 2008.
Map of the former Yugoslavia, 2008. © International Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia

Republika Srpska lawmakers have increasingly resisted this arrangement, with Dodik leading efforts to assert greater independence.

Among their resolutions, lawmakers requested that Dodik, who recently had surgery in Serbia, avoid court appearances until medically cleared.

The moves by RS lawmakers has heightened ongoing tensions between Bosnia's two regions.

Ongoing sanctions

The political crisis has been deepened by increased pressure on Dodik's circle by the United States. On 18 December, Washington sanctioned four people and four entities from RS, including Bosnia's Foreign Trade Minister Stasa Kosarac, for allegedly helping Dodik's family dodge earlier restrictions.

These sanctions are part of broader efforts to address what Washington views as destabilising actions in the region.

The crisis has added to the Balkans’ volatile dynamics. Earlier this month, Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti visited Sarajevo, meeting with Bosnian officials despite the lack of formal diplomatic ties between the two nations.

The visit drew criticism from Bosnia’s Serb leaders, further straining relations.

Map of the administrative division of Bosnia-Herzegovina according to the 1995 Dayton Agreements.
Map of the administrative division of Bosnia-Herzegovina according to the 1995 Dayton Agreements. © Wikimedia Commons

EU accession?

The European Council opened accession talks with Bosnia-Herzegovina in March after authorities met key requirements set by the European Commission.

But tensions between Bosnia's regions remain high, echoing divisions that date to the 1990s war when Bosnian Serb forces, led by Radovan Karadzic and Ratko Mladic – both later convicted of war crimes – orchestrated the killing of some 8,000 Bosnians.

The Washington-based Carnegie Endowment has warned that “progress on the EU track is no remedy for the chronic crisis besetting Bosnian politics”, describing Dodik as “a thorn in the side of the West”.

As Sarajevo works to address these challenges, the focus remains on whether the country’s leaders can bridge the political divide and keep Bosnia on the path to European integration.

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