SI !
by Cody Mello-Klein,
by Cody Mello-Klein,
DECEMBER 9, 2024
The tariffs on imported goods from Mexico and Canada would immediately impact the price of the most popular beer brand in the country: Modelo.
Credit: Matthew Modoono/Northeastern University
If the price tag on your Modelo or Corona is higher next year, don't be too shocked.
Many economists say that the 25% tariffs President-elect Donald Trump has proposed on imported goods from Mexico and Canada, not to mention additional tariffs on Chinese goods, would be catastrophic for the economy and consumers.
But Malcolm Purinton, an assistant teaching professor of history at Northeastern University whose focus is the history of beer, brewing and trade, says they will hit those beer brands particularly hard.
"The most popular beer brand in the entire country right now is Modelo," Purinton says. "The thing is the demand isn't going to go away, but the costs are going to go up. … You'll see all the Mexican beers, also tequila, mezcal, any agave spirits, it's going to dramatically affect the costs of those."
Mexico and Canada are two of America's biggest trade partners, and that's especially true when it comes to alcohol.
In 2023, the U.S. imported about $5.7 billion in beer and $4.8 billion in spirits—like the tequila used in margaritas—from Mexico.
Looking to the north, the numbers are even higher: the U.S. imported $543 billion worth of alcohol from Canada in 2023, including $200 million of just whiskey, according to the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States. That doesn't even include all the food that the U.S. imports from its neighbors.
"Almost all of our imported produce comes from Mexico, some from Canada," Purinton says.
For the many breweries, bars and wholesalers that import food and drink to the U.S., a 25% universal tariff would add a tremendous amount to almost every aspect of their business.
The price of importing the barley used to make beer will go up, and that doesn't even take into account how U.S. barley growers will be affected if Canada or Mexico implement retaliatory tariffs.
However, the biggest problem for beer producers in the U.S. could be aluminum, Purinton notes. In 2018, Trump had implemented tariffs on Chinese goods, including the aluminum that almost every beer producer in the U.S. uses in their cans. In response, many started importing from Canada, which is now under threat from Trump's newly proposed tariffs.
"Almost all beer is sold in cans," Purinton says. "It's all sheet aluminum, and it's not just the 16- or 12-ounce can that you've got. You've also got the kegs. All the transportation of beer from a brewery is going out through kegs. Aluminum is huge."
Every link in the supply chain—from the tabs put on beer can lids to the equipment used in brewing—suddenly becomes more expensive to import, and those costs will add up quickly both for businesses and consumers.
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"If these supply chains are hit, they'll be hit hard," Purinton says. "The costs for all these little pieces that come into it, even just the tab on the can or the bottle caps that are mostly made in Mexico for any other beer, all those little pieces are going to compound and raise the price."
While the cost of a six-pack of Corona might only go from $10 to $10.45, "if you're going to a small craft beer bar, that could be a whole other dollar on the pint," Purinton adds.
But the cost of Trump's tariffs won't just be monetary, they'll be felt culturally, he says. Food and drink are some of the most age-old forms of trade. It's how we experience other cultures and countries before we even set foot there.
"All of the beers you're drinking are going to have an international connection," Purinton says. "Are you going to have a margarita? That's an agave spirit that has to be coming directly from Mexico. All of those choices are what tie us to something that we enjoy and something we are very lucky to be able to enjoy, but it also ties us to the rest of the world just with our palettes."
"If we start knocking down all of these other nations through trade tariffs, it's going to hit us in our pocketbooks and our stomachs," Purinton adds.
Provided by Northeastern University
This story is republished courtesy of Northeastern Global News news.northeastern.edu.
Explore furtherAluminum tariffs tap out Canada craft brewers
If the price tag on your Modelo or Corona is higher next year, don't be too shocked.
Many economists say that the 25% tariffs President-elect Donald Trump has proposed on imported goods from Mexico and Canada, not to mention additional tariffs on Chinese goods, would be catastrophic for the economy and consumers.
But Malcolm Purinton, an assistant teaching professor of history at Northeastern University whose focus is the history of beer, brewing and trade, says they will hit those beer brands particularly hard.
"The most popular beer brand in the entire country right now is Modelo," Purinton says. "The thing is the demand isn't going to go away, but the costs are going to go up. … You'll see all the Mexican beers, also tequila, mezcal, any agave spirits, it's going to dramatically affect the costs of those."
Mexico and Canada are two of America's biggest trade partners, and that's especially true when it comes to alcohol.
In 2023, the U.S. imported about $5.7 billion in beer and $4.8 billion in spirits—like the tequila used in margaritas—from Mexico.
Looking to the north, the numbers are even higher: the U.S. imported $543 billion worth of alcohol from Canada in 2023, including $200 million of just whiskey, according to the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States. That doesn't even include all the food that the U.S. imports from its neighbors.
"Almost all of our imported produce comes from Mexico, some from Canada," Purinton says.
For the many breweries, bars and wholesalers that import food and drink to the U.S., a 25% universal tariff would add a tremendous amount to almost every aspect of their business.
The price of importing the barley used to make beer will go up, and that doesn't even take into account how U.S. barley growers will be affected if Canada or Mexico implement retaliatory tariffs.
However, the biggest problem for beer producers in the U.S. could be aluminum, Purinton notes. In 2018, Trump had implemented tariffs on Chinese goods, including the aluminum that almost every beer producer in the U.S. uses in their cans. In response, many started importing from Canada, which is now under threat from Trump's newly proposed tariffs.
"Almost all beer is sold in cans," Purinton says. "It's all sheet aluminum, and it's not just the 16- or 12-ounce can that you've got. You've also got the kegs. All the transportation of beer from a brewery is going out through kegs. Aluminum is huge."
Every link in the supply chain—from the tabs put on beer can lids to the equipment used in brewing—suddenly becomes more expensive to import, and those costs will add up quickly both for businesses and consumers.
Discover the latest in science, tech, and space with over 100,000 subscribers who rely on Phys.org for daily insights. Sign up for our free newsletter and get updates on breakthroughs, innovations, and research that matter—daily or weekly.
"If these supply chains are hit, they'll be hit hard," Purinton says. "The costs for all these little pieces that come into it, even just the tab on the can or the bottle caps that are mostly made in Mexico for any other beer, all those little pieces are going to compound and raise the price."
While the cost of a six-pack of Corona might only go from $10 to $10.45, "if you're going to a small craft beer bar, that could be a whole other dollar on the pint," Purinton adds.
But the cost of Trump's tariffs won't just be monetary, they'll be felt culturally, he says. Food and drink are some of the most age-old forms of trade. It's how we experience other cultures and countries before we even set foot there.
"All of the beers you're drinking are going to have an international connection," Purinton says. "Are you going to have a margarita? That's an agave spirit that has to be coming directly from Mexico. All of those choices are what tie us to something that we enjoy and something we are very lucky to be able to enjoy, but it also ties us to the rest of the world just with our palettes."
"If we start knocking down all of these other nations through trade tariffs, it's going to hit us in our pocketbooks and our stomachs," Purinton adds.
Provided by Northeastern University
This story is republished courtesy of Northeastern Global News news.northeastern.edu.
Explore furtherAluminum tariffs tap out Canada craft brewers
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