How Israel is trying to weaken post-Assad Syria
Analysis: Israel is seizing the opportunity after Assad's fall to sabotage Syria's military capacities, illegally grab strategic land, and expand its borders.
Alessandra Bajec
18 December, 2024
NEW ARAB
Since the overthrow of Bashar Al-Assad, the Israeli military has conducted an immense preventive bombing campaign against Syrian military targets, carrying out over 800 airstrikes across the newly liberated country in just a week.
The attacks have targeted former regime sites such as weapons and ammunition depots, air defence and missile systems, military airports, combat aircraft, and the naval fleet.
Israeli forces have also bombed intelligence centres in an apparent attempt to destroy sensitive information. Leaked documents found after Assad's fall showed that the regime not only received intelligence from Israel but also coordinated military operations against Iranian positions.
Related
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Giorgio Cafiero
Israeli officials said the strikes aimed to prevent strategic weapons and military infrastructure from falling into the hands of rebel groups, some of whom originated from movements associated with Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (IS).
Israel confirmed suspected chemical weapons sites were also struck, with the military saying at least 80% of Syria’s military capabilities had been destroyed.
“Israel took the opportunity to eliminate weapons that could one day be used against it,” Mairav Zonszein, senior Israel analyst with the International Crisis Group (ICG), told The New Arab.
“Israel was ruthless but clever in targeting Syria's military during this disorganised interim period,” Paul Scham, professor of Israel Studies at the University of Maryland, told TNA, suggesting that the mass-scale operation at this particular phase made retaliation from Syria impossible. “It didn’t want to take any chances, so it found this window of opportunity to strike out without any retribution.”
UN experts last week condemned Israel’s unprecedented air raids on Syria saying they violate international law.
"There is absolutely no basis under international law to preventively or preemptively disarm a country you don't like. This is completely lawless," UN special rapporteur on human rights and counter-terrorism Ben Saul stated.
“This is what Israelis do: they panic and hit the military response button, they believe they can achieve security in this way,” Bill Law, editor of Arab Digest, told The New Arab, arguing against a code of practice that will only bring about more insecurity and destabilisation. “The last thing the region, especially the Syrian people, need is to have Israel pounding their country,” he added.
The mass destruction of Syrian military and intelligence targets takes place at a time when no real deterrents exist for Israel, whether at a local, regional, or international level.
With its military capabilities reduced to light arms and limited armaments, Syria is left highly vulnerable to attacks by air, sea, or ground from Israel or other forces, with almost no real conventional defences in the long term.
Analysts say that Israel's end goal is a weakened, fragmented Syria. [Getty]
“It will take years, if not decades, for Syria to rebuild its conventional military capabilities,” the New Lines Institute's Caroline Rose told TNA, stressing that this is particularly true with a transitional government under the leading rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is seeking international recognition. Even if HTS earns credibility, she continued, it has a long way to go before “regaining a strong military capacity”.
While the Assad regime was a known entity for Israel, the new HTS-led caretaker government brings uncertainty, posing a potential threat to its positions in the occupied Golan Heights and presenting the possibility that Syrian armed groups might mobilise against it.
“It’s positive for Israel in its wider war against Iran and the axis of resistance, but it adds one layer of unpredictability about what the new Syria is going to look like,” Zonszein said on the departure of Assad. The ICG specialist pointed out that with a power vacuum near its border, Israel believes it is exposed to security risks.
The Middle East Institute’s Paul Salem similarly observed that Israel views Assad’s downfall with mixed feelings. “The Israelis aren’t sorry to see Assad gone, especially with Hezbollah weakened, but they preferred him to the unknown and are worried about what might follow,” he told TNA.
Therefore, it took advantage of the political void to “wipe the Syrian army off the map” so that it doesn’t have the capability to confront it, he added.
Rose, who’s a regular commentator on defence and security in MENA, said that Israel ultimately intends to isolate itself from its surrounding adversaries. “Israel’s end goal is a weakened, fragmented Syria with buffer zones insulating it from Iran and its proxy militias, which it thinks will try to establish a foothold near its borders,” she argued.
However, the MENA observer doesn’t believe the Israeli army will push deeper into Syria, given question marks about the Israeli army’s capacity in its ongoing multi-front war.
For Syria, the implications of Israel’s bombing campaign could be stark. With a fragile state and a shattered army, rebuilding a stable country and ensuring it maintains security nationwide will be hard.
The new government’s ability to control the country will be compromised, Salem said, increasing the risk of Syria becoming a “failed state” or descending into civil war. In addition, Israel’s unprovoked military aggression sets a “hostile tone” with Syria paving the way for strained future relations.
Seizing land in the Golan Heights
Alongside airstrikes, in the days following Assad’s toppling Israeli ground troops quickly advanced into the UN-patrolled buffer zone within Syrian territory beyond the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and took control of the strategic Mount Hermon overlooking Syria and Lebanon.
The demilitarised area was created after the 1973 Arab-Israeli war. It was the first time Israeli forces had openly pushed into Syrian territory in 50 years. Israel seized the Golan Heights from Syria during the 1967 Six-Day War and unilaterally annexed them in 1981. Its annexation is only recognised by the United States.
Israeli PM Netanyahu announced its invasion by saying the 1974 disengagement agreement between Syria and Israel that had established the buffer zone had "collapsed" with the rebel takeover of the country. This is an absurd claim, since the ouster of a regime does not invalidate or suspend an international agreement with the country itself.
Tel Aviv called the incursion a limited and temporary measure to ensure border security, although some reports indicated that its troops had moved further into Syrian territory reaching about 25 km southwest of the capital Damascus.
The UN special envoy for Syria said Israel’s airstrikes and ground invasion into Syrian territory had to stop, and that its actions were in violation of the 1974 agreement.
“The Israelis may create facts on the ground, they aim to secure territory for strategic purposes,” Salem said, pointing to the seizure of Mount Hermon, or Jabal al-Sheikh - a prime location to monitor Damascus, its surroundings, and much of Lebanon.
18 December, 2024
NEW ARAB
Since the overthrow of Bashar Al-Assad, the Israeli military has conducted an immense preventive bombing campaign against Syrian military targets, carrying out over 800 airstrikes across the newly liberated country in just a week.
The attacks have targeted former regime sites such as weapons and ammunition depots, air defence and missile systems, military airports, combat aircraft, and the naval fleet.
Israeli forces have also bombed intelligence centres in an apparent attempt to destroy sensitive information. Leaked documents found after Assad's fall showed that the regime not only received intelligence from Israel but also coordinated military operations against Iranian positions.
Related
What the fall of Assad could mean for the Middle East
Analysis
Giorgio Cafiero
Israeli officials said the strikes aimed to prevent strategic weapons and military infrastructure from falling into the hands of rebel groups, some of whom originated from movements associated with Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (IS).
Israel confirmed suspected chemical weapons sites were also struck, with the military saying at least 80% of Syria’s military capabilities had been destroyed.
“Israel took the opportunity to eliminate weapons that could one day be used against it,” Mairav Zonszein, senior Israel analyst with the International Crisis Group (ICG), told The New Arab.
“Israel was ruthless but clever in targeting Syria's military during this disorganised interim period,” Paul Scham, professor of Israel Studies at the University of Maryland, told TNA, suggesting that the mass-scale operation at this particular phase made retaliation from Syria impossible. “It didn’t want to take any chances, so it found this window of opportunity to strike out without any retribution.”
UN experts last week condemned Israel’s unprecedented air raids on Syria saying they violate international law.
"There is absolutely no basis under international law to preventively or preemptively disarm a country you don't like. This is completely lawless," UN special rapporteur on human rights and counter-terrorism Ben Saul stated.
“This is what Israelis do: they panic and hit the military response button, they believe they can achieve security in this way,” Bill Law, editor of Arab Digest, told The New Arab, arguing against a code of practice that will only bring about more insecurity and destabilisation. “The last thing the region, especially the Syrian people, need is to have Israel pounding their country,” he added.
The mass destruction of Syrian military and intelligence targets takes place at a time when no real deterrents exist for Israel, whether at a local, regional, or international level.
With its military capabilities reduced to light arms and limited armaments, Syria is left highly vulnerable to attacks by air, sea, or ground from Israel or other forces, with almost no real conventional defences in the long term.
Analysts say that Israel's end goal is a weakened, fragmented Syria. [Getty]“It will take years, if not decades, for Syria to rebuild its conventional military capabilities,” the New Lines Institute's Caroline Rose told TNA, stressing that this is particularly true with a transitional government under the leading rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is seeking international recognition. Even if HTS earns credibility, she continued, it has a long way to go before “regaining a strong military capacity”.
While the Assad regime was a known entity for Israel, the new HTS-led caretaker government brings uncertainty, posing a potential threat to its positions in the occupied Golan Heights and presenting the possibility that Syrian armed groups might mobilise against it.
“It’s positive for Israel in its wider war against Iran and the axis of resistance, but it adds one layer of unpredictability about what the new Syria is going to look like,” Zonszein said on the departure of Assad. The ICG specialist pointed out that with a power vacuum near its border, Israel believes it is exposed to security risks.
The Middle East Institute’s Paul Salem similarly observed that Israel views Assad’s downfall with mixed feelings. “The Israelis aren’t sorry to see Assad gone, especially with Hezbollah weakened, but they preferred him to the unknown and are worried about what might follow,” he told TNA.
Therefore, it took advantage of the political void to “wipe the Syrian army off the map” so that it doesn’t have the capability to confront it, he added.
Rose, who’s a regular commentator on defence and security in MENA, said that Israel ultimately intends to isolate itself from its surrounding adversaries. “Israel’s end goal is a weakened, fragmented Syria with buffer zones insulating it from Iran and its proxy militias, which it thinks will try to establish a foothold near its borders,” she argued.
However, the MENA observer doesn’t believe the Israeli army will push deeper into Syria, given question marks about the Israeli army’s capacity in its ongoing multi-front war.
For Syria, the implications of Israel’s bombing campaign could be stark. With a fragile state and a shattered army, rebuilding a stable country and ensuring it maintains security nationwide will be hard.
The new government’s ability to control the country will be compromised, Salem said, increasing the risk of Syria becoming a “failed state” or descending into civil war. In addition, Israel’s unprovoked military aggression sets a “hostile tone” with Syria paving the way for strained future relations.
Seizing land in the Golan Heights
Alongside airstrikes, in the days following Assad’s toppling Israeli ground troops quickly advanced into the UN-patrolled buffer zone within Syrian territory beyond the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and took control of the strategic Mount Hermon overlooking Syria and Lebanon.
The demilitarised area was created after the 1973 Arab-Israeli war. It was the first time Israeli forces had openly pushed into Syrian territory in 50 years. Israel seized the Golan Heights from Syria during the 1967 Six-Day War and unilaterally annexed them in 1981. Its annexation is only recognised by the United States.
Israeli PM Netanyahu announced its invasion by saying the 1974 disengagement agreement between Syria and Israel that had established the buffer zone had "collapsed" with the rebel takeover of the country. This is an absurd claim, since the ouster of a regime does not invalidate or suspend an international agreement with the country itself.
Tel Aviv called the incursion a limited and temporary measure to ensure border security, although some reports indicated that its troops had moved further into Syrian territory reaching about 25 km southwest of the capital Damascus.
The UN special envoy for Syria said Israel’s airstrikes and ground invasion into Syrian territory had to stop, and that its actions were in violation of the 1974 agreement.
“The Israelis may create facts on the ground, they aim to secure territory for strategic purposes,” Salem said, pointing to the seizure of Mount Hermon, or Jabal al-Sheikh - a prime location to monitor Damascus, its surroundings, and much of Lebanon.
Israel has announced plans to double the settler population in the occupied Golan Heights. [Getty]
Zonszein explained that Israel often deploys troops under the guise of a “temporary” presence but ends up staying for a “very long time”, as seen in the West Bank, Gaza, and Lebanon.
“It follows a pattern whereby it takes land by force to serve its own security purposes, which in some cases leads to land grabs,” the analyst remarked.
Scham likewise expects that Israel may seek to maintain a long-term presence in the buffer zone, though he doesn’t think it is interested in additional land expropriation within Syria.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu’s government has approved a plan to double the Israeli settler population in the occupied Golan Heights.
Syria's new de-facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa - also known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani - decried Israel for its land grabs and ongoing strikes on military sites in the country which threatened escalating tensions in the region. But he added that Syria was too “exhausted” for another war.
A protracted Israeli military presence in Syria and deeper territorial expansion beyond the occupied Golan Heights could pull Tel Aviv deeper into a conflict that it is trying to contain. It is difficult to anticipate what expansionist plans Israel might have on top of illegally occupying the Golan Heights.
For Zonszein, it would be “very unwise” for Israel to move further into Syria after already capturing strategic points and planning to stay for an extended period, with no one seemingly able to stop it. “If it pushes hard, it may provoke a reaction in the long run. It should be careful not to go too far,” the expert said.
Law also warned that Israel continuing down this path and pursuing more territorial advances would be a “very dangerous” step taking the region toward greater instability.
Alessandra Bajec is a freelance journalist currently based in Tunis.
Follow her on Twitter: @AlessandraBajec
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