UPDATED
'Do your freaking job': S. Korean protesters frustrated by failing impeachment vote
Seoul (AFP) – Gasps of frustration. Shouts of rage. Tears. Many of the tens of thousands of protesters outside South Korea's parliament were overcome with emotion Saturday, as a presidential impeachment motion looked set to fail.
Issued on: 07/12/2024
Nearly 150,000 people were estimated by police to have filled the streets around the National Assembly on Saturday, demanding that lawmakers impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol for his shocking imposition of martial law four days earlier, which plunged democratic South Korea into turmoil.
For hours, people poured into the area around parliament where on Tuesday night soldiers were helicoptered in as part of Yoon's short-lived bid to subvert civilian rule.
Ahead of the vote on the opposition-led impeachment motion, giant screens to show parliament livefeeds were set up across the eight-lane road by the National Assembly, which had been closed off to serve as a rally site.
Many protesters held banners saying: "impeach Yoon" and "insurrection criminal" and sang songs with lyrics such as "South Korea is a democratic Republic".
The atmosphere was festival-like, with some people bringing small children, or coming in large groups, with jaunty music punctuated by anti-Yoon chants.
But as MPs formally opened a session to determine Yoon's fate, the vast crowd fell silent, fixated on every move of the lawmakers.
A gasp of disappointment rippled through the crowd when a special probe bill to investigate suspicions surrounding First Lady Kim Keon Hee was struck down.
Of the 300 MPs, 198 voted in favour of the probe -- only two shy of the 200 needed.
Signs of frustration became more visible as ruling People Power Party MPs began leaving the main chamber to boycott the impeachment motion, which also required 200 votes to remove Yoon from office.
"I feel terrible that it has come to this today," said An Jun-cheol, 24, at the rally.
"What the ruling party lawmakers did today -- walking away from the vote -- is nothing more than an attempt to cement their power and status, with no regard for the people."
But An was resolute, saying he would keep attending the rallies until Yoon was impeached.
"I am sure more people will come here for the next vote," he said.
Jo Ah-gyeong, a 30-year-old from Seoul, shared his determination.
"I'm neither discouraged nor disappointed," she told AFP, despite the apparent failure to secure enough votes to impeach Yoon.
"Because we'll get it eventually. I'll keep coming here until we do."
And she had a message for ruling party lawmakers: "Please do your freaking job."
Four days after the martial law declaration, a sign of the event remains at the National Assembly. A white paper taped to one of its gates reads: "This is the gate which the Assembly Speaker climbed over to vote down the martial law."
© 2024 AFP
Reuters
The vote was in limbo today as members of Yoon’s party walked out and the opposition called on them to return and vote.
While lawmakers debated the motion, only a single member of Yoon’s People Power Party (PPP) remained in his seat while a couple of others returned during voting, casting doubt over whether the measure would have enough votes to pass.
The lull was an odd counterpoint to the shouts and cursing in parliament that had preceded the vote, held four days after Yoon plunged Asia’s fourth-largest economy and key US military ally into its greatest political crisis in decades, threatening to shatter South Korea’s reputation as a democratic success story.
As PPP lawmakers departed after casting votes on a separate motion to appoint a special prosecutor to investigate the first lady, some people shouted and cursed them.
When debate began on the impeachment motion, opposition lawmakers recited the names of the PPP members who had left.
After voting began, National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-shik called on PPP members to return as opposition lawmakers settled in.
One of the PPP members who returned told reporters he had voted against the impeachment motion as he did not agree with the bill, but still thought Yoon was not qualified to be president.
In the morning, Yoon apologised to the nation for his attempt to impose martial law but did not resign, defying intense pressure to step down even from some in his ruling party.
Yoon said he would not seek to avoid legal and political responsibility for his decision to declare martial law for the first time in South Korea in 44 years. He said the decision was born of desperation.
Yoon ‘very sorry’
Saturday’s televised speech was the embattled leader’s first public appearance since he rescinded the martial law order six hours after declaring it when parliament defied military and police cordons to vote unanimously against his decree.
“I leave it up to my party to take steps to stabilise the political situation in the future, including the issue of my term in office,” Yoon said in the address to the nation, promising there would be no second attempt to impose martial law.
Standing in front of the South Korean flag, Yoon bowed after he finished his brief remarks and stared solemnly into the camera for a moment.
Han Dong-hoon, leader of Yoon’s ruling party, said after the address that the president was no longer in a position to carry out his public duties and his resignation was now unavoidable.
On Friday, Han said Yoon was a danger to the country and needed to be removed from power, increasing the pressure on Yoon to quit even though PPP members later reaffirmed a formal opposition to his impeachment.
If Yoon leaves office before his single five-year term ends in May 2027, the constitution requires a presidential election to be held within 60 days of his departure.
Martial law has been declared more than a dozen times since South Korea was established as a republic in 1948, the last time in 1980.
Martial law shockwaves
Yoon shocked the nation late on Tuesday when he gave the military sweeping emergency powers in order to combat unspecified threats from “North Korean communist forces”, and “to eradicate the shameless pro-North anti-state forces”.
He went on to accuse the National Assembly of launching an unprecedented number of impeachment efforts against members of his administration, effectively paralysing key operations, and handling the budget in a way that undermined the fundamental functions of the government, including public safety.
Yoon has been dogged by personal scandals and strife, an unyielding opposition and rifts within his own party. Once regarded as a tough political survivor he has become increasingly isolated.
The martial law declaration sent shockwaves around the world and drew rare criticism from senior American officials who had previously praised Yoon as a champion of democracy in Asia. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin scrapped plans to travel to South Korea, two US officials told Reuters on Thursday.
Some PPP members urged Yoon to resign before Saturday’s vote, saying they did not want a repeat of the 2016 impeachment of then-president Park Geun-hye, who left office after months of candle-lit protests over an influence-peddling scandal. Her downfall triggered the implosion of the party and a victory by liberals in presidential and general elections.
In scenes reminiscent of those protests, thousands of demonstrators holding candles assembled outside parliament on Friday and Saturday nights, demanding Yoon’s impeachment.
Protester Choi Yong-Ho, 60, said he was furious at the prospect that the impeachment bill may not succeed, but vowed to keep coming to future protests.
“We have to make our voices heard,” he said.
If Yoon is impeached, a trial by the Constitutional Court would follow. The court can confirm an impeachment motion with a vote by six of the nine justices. The court currently only has six sitting judges, and it is unclear whether it would take on the case without at least seven.
In 2017, the court took three months to remove then-president Park from office.
Prosecutors, the police and the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials have all launched probes into Yoon and senior officials involved in the martial law decree, seeking to pursue charges of insurrection and abuse of power, among others.
The officials face potential charges of insurrection, abuse of authority and obstructing other people from exercising their rights. If convicted, the crime of leading an insurrection is punishable by death or life imprisonment, with or without prison labour.
Tens of thousands protest as South Korean president set to avoid impeachment
Nearly 150,000 people protested outside South Korea's parliament Saturday, Yonhap news agency reported, as lawmakers from the country’s ruling party boycotted a vote on President Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment making it likely the motion will fail.
Issued on: 07/12/2024
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol appeared set to survive an impeachment vote Saturday for imposing martial law after his party's lawmakers boycotted, despite mass protests outside parliament calling for his ouster.
Yoon stunned the nation and the international community Tuesday night by suspending civilian rule, but was forced into a U-turn after lawmakers nixed his decree.
Opposition parties, which hold 192 seats in the 300-seat parliament, filed the impeachment motion which needed 200 votes to pass.
But all but one members of Yoon's People Power Party on Saturday filed out of the chamber before the vote, live TV footage showed, meaning that the motion lacked the necessary quorum.
Advertising
The outcome is likely to enrage the nearly 150,000 people demonstrating outside parliament calling for Yoon's ouster, according to news agency Yonhap.
Apology
Before the vote, Yoon, 63, spoke for the first time in three days and apologised for the turmoil but stopped short of stepping down, saying he would leave it to his party to decide his fate.
"I caused anxiety and inconvenience to the public. I sincerely apologise," he said in the televised address.
He said he would "entrust the party with measures to stabilise the political situation, including my term in office".
His PPP stuck to the official line that they would block impeachment, even after party head Han Dong-hoon said Yoon must go to avert more political chaos.
"The normal performance of the president's duties is impossible under the (current) circumstances, and an early resignation of the president is inevitable," Han told reporters Saturday.
Enough votes?
If the motion had passed, Yoon would have been suspended from duties pending a ruling by the Constitutional Court.
Opposition leader Lee Jae-myung said Yoon's comments on Saturday were "very disappointing" given the widespread anger among South Koreans.
His speech "only exacerbates the sense of betrayal and anger among the citizens", Lee said, adding the only solution was "the immediate resignation of the president or an early departure through impeachment".
An opinion poll released Friday put backing for the 63-year-old president at a record low of 13 percent.
"The public will not forgive him," 63-year-old retiree Lee Wan-pyo told AFP at Seoul's main train station before the vote.
"I just want him to step down," said Han Jeong-hwa, a 70-year-old housewife.
Detain the politicians?
Regardless of the vote, police have begun investigating Yoon and others for alleged insurrection.
In his address declaring martial law late Tuesday, Yoon claimed it would "eliminate anti-state elements plundering people's freedom and happiness".
Security forces sealed the National Assembly, helicopters landed on the roof, and almost 300 soldiers tried to lock down the building.
But as parliamentary staffers blocked the soldiers with sofas and fire extinguishers, enough MPs got inside -- many climbed walls to enter -- and voted down Yoon's move.
Soldiers had been ordered to detain key politicians, lawmakers from both parties have said, with the special forces chief later describing being given orders to "drag out" MPs from parliament.
Experts and lawmakers have speculated that the elite special forces soldiers may have slow-walked following orders, after discovering themselves to be involved in a political rather than national security incident.
The episode brought back painful memories of South Korea's autocratic past and blindsided its allies, with the US administration only finding out via television.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told his Korean counterpart Cho Tae-yul on Friday that he "expects the... democratic process to prevail".
(FRANCE 24 with AFP)
South Korea’s Martial Law Fiasco: Legitimation Crisis in the Imperial Vassal State
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol announcing the lifting of his martial law decree.
In the wake of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s 6-hour coup, Western pundits have opined that this was an affirmation of South Korean democracy’s robustness and resilience, its institutional maturity and strength.
This is like saying after a survivor fights off an assault, that this demonstrates a mature state of legal order. Hardly. It signals the opposite. Certainly, it highlights courage, but it isn’t a demonstration of a robust state of rights. It demonstrates a gaping, terrifying lack of order.
The recission of martial law in South Korea is certainly an affirmation of the South Korean people: their courage and fearlessness. But few Koreans are feeling safe that “democracy worked”. The most terrifying phrase in the South Korean lexicon is “martial law decree”–it triggers visceral memories of torture, disappearances, mass graves, and deep, paralyzing terror. As we speak, legislators are sleeping inside the Parliament building to ensure that if a second Martial Law decree is proclaimed, they will not have to scramble and claw their way through barricades to vote again. Likewise, protestors are standing in spirited vigil outside the building to tackle martial law troops if they come surging out of their barracks again.
All this undercuts the assertion that Korea is a “mature, leading democracy”–“one of the strongest, most dynamic democracies in the world, a champion of democracy for the world”. Had it not been for thousands of Koreans streaming out at midnight and running interference with their bodies against martial law troops, South Korea’s three-decade-long political experiment would have reverted to blank terror like a suddenly snapped film reel. Yoon’s martial law declaration sought to white out all civil and political rights, as well as to extirpate and annihilate all political opposition–what he referred to as Pro-North, anti-state forces. It is only a series of lucky coincidences and missteps that it was thwarted. And the crisis is not over yet.
A Fraudulent Alliance of Democracies
The coup attempt also highlights the ugly mendacity that undergirds the US myth of “an alliance of democracies”–an alliance in which South Korea’s President Yoon was touted as the leader of “the Global Pivot state”, fighting autocracies and championing the importance of liberal democracy around the world. Yoon was even invited to address a joint session of the US congress, where, to repeated standing ovations, he unironically warned that “totalitarian forces may conceal and disguise themselves as defenders of democracy or human rights” and bloviated about the importance of the rule of law.
This mendacity and hypocrisy is also evident in the reactions of the Western powers. After martial law was declared and as legislative aides frantically barricaded doors in parliament to stymie marauding paratroopers, the only statement western governments and leaders could muster was “we are watching things closely“.
Not one of them condemned or denounced the coup as an egregious attack on democracy or the South Korean body politic–as they would have immediately if any non-US-client state had declared martial law.
They also intoned, hypnotically, “Korea is our closest ally”: code for “We support Yoon”.
The Taiwan DPP authorities, touted as a model Asian democracy, did them one better: as a kindred US-quisling state with kindred tendencies, they openly endorsed Yoon’s declaration of Martial law, posting in their official account:
South Korean legislature has been controlled by pro-North Korean forces. To protect constitutional freedoms, SK president Yoon Suk Yeol has initiated nation-wide martial law.
They bemoaned that they, too, were defending against “worldwide dark and evil forces” in their legislature, hinting they might do the same.In Taiwanese legislature, the Blues and Whites [opposition party legislators] use all sorts of means to decrease defense spending, enact unconstitutional increases in power, amend financial laws malignantly, roll back pension reform, sham recall laws, obstruct national security proposals N times, nitpick Wang Yi-chuan’s appointment…No doubt, we are Team Taiwan, we are defending the infiltration of worldwide dark and evil forces into this country every minute and every second.
Insurrection, Democratic style
After the South Korean coup blew over–for now–the same western pundits commented breezily, “Isn’t South Korea’s democracy great?”.
Well, no, it’s not.
This insurrection could have turned out very, very badly–and it’s not over yet. It’s not difficult to show that Yoon Suk Yeol committed treason–by running roughshod over the South Korean constitution, by:
a) Declaring martial law without justification: Martial law, under the Korean constitution, is reserved for war or catastrophic national emergencies that require military mobilization. Budget disagreement or policy friction/deadlock–not unusual in a polity–does not justify deploying armed force to assert power. Labeling normal opposition as North Korean/anti-state subversion signals a despotically unbalanced mindset that harkens back to the worst excesses of the previous military dictatorships.
b) Directing intelligence services to arrest “key political figures”–including opposition DPK party leader, Lee Jae Myung, the speaker of the assembly Woo Won-shik, the leader of the PPP (his own party), Han Dong Hoon, and RKP leader Cho Kuk, among others. This is blatant political repression.
c) Sending troops to occupy national election committee offices. These armed troops also brought with them an ambulance and an empty truck–in anticipation of mass bloodshed and the need to cart away casualties and corpses.
d) Obstructing the constitutional process: The South Korean constitution provides for legislators to rescind a Martial Law Decree as part of its constitutional system of checks and balances. That Yoon sought to override that provision and prevent legislators from exercising their constitutional mandate by sending fully armed special warfare troops–the same Special warfare brigade that has historically always facilitated coups–to the national assembly to prevent legislators from entering signals criminal intent to subvert the law.
According to one military expert, the 707 special warfare forces brigade, had been ordered to “take the National Assembly building by 11:00 pm at any cost”, However, they were delayed when their helicopters did not receive air transit clearance over a critical security corridor. All of South Korean airspace is tightly monitored and restricted–defended with radar and anti-aircraft batteries–especially in the capital. Yeouido, the area of the National Assembly building, and Yongsan, where the Defense ministry and Presidential residence is located, are especially tightly controlled. This delay in clearance resulted in troops landing at 11:48, rather than 11:00pm, and nearly two hundred speedy legislators were able to beat the special forces to the building, where they entered, barricaded, voted and rescinded the decree in record time. Despite being equipped to cut electricity to kill the functioning of the legislature–all the forces were equipped with night vision goggles–they arrived too late to stop entry and then were further stymied by aides who frantically improvised barricades with chairs, cabinets, tables, plants, belts and duct tape in a near-hallucinatory modern day re-enactment of the Paris Commune.
The Republic of Prosecution
Yoon’s autocratic tendencies were well known even from his campaign promises: a former chief prosecutor, he had threatened to create a “republic of prosecutors”–something he rapidly put into practice using an army of prosecutors to steamroll opponents. The opposition party leader, Lee Jae Myung, who nearly beat him at the polls, had his personal residence raided hundreds of times, and has been subjected to non-stop political prosecution. And according to aides, apparently, Yoon routinely discussed declaring martial law, almost as if he were ordering a pizza: “Shall we order Martial Law today?”.
So how did Yoon become touted as a paragon of democratic virtue? How did he become so despotically out of touch? The answer to both questions points in the same direction.
Despite being despised by Koreans for his despotic tendencies, Yoon was lionized by the US–the Biden administration at every turn. He was pumped up as a global leader of “liberal democracy”, the leader of the “global pivot state” that “advances freedom, peace, and prosperity through liberal democratic values”. He received this constant stroking from the west, even as he was persecuting, prosecuting, and smashing every democratic and civil institution in sight: the media, the independent press, unions, opposition parties, peace and social service groups.
When unions went on strike, Yoon claimed they were anti-state pro-North seditionists and threatened them with prison and massive fines. Scientific researchers had their faces smashed in and were dragged out like furniture for daring to protest research budget cuts. Media institutions and opposition party politicians were endlessly SWAT-raided and arrested as if they were terrorists. Still, he was endlessly praised by the US even as he was smashing institutions and grinding Korean citizens under his boot heel.
And when millions protested–most recently, one hundred thousand hit the streets of Seoul to demand his resignation in the week before the coup–the US and western press did a total media blackout. Yoon may have been a bastard, but he was clearly the US bastard: incapable of any wrong, always to be coddled, protected, and valorized. He was “Mr American Pie”, Washington’s own minstrel, “a good ole boy …from a long, long time ago”. As a result, the Caligula of Yongsan became high on his own supply.
Earlier this year in March, Yoon hosted the US Summit of Democracies, even as he was threatening medical workers. South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul stated without an ounce of irony:
[South Korea’s hosting of the summit] signifies our collective resolve to strengthen democracy globally…As President Yoon stated…human history shows that where political freedom reigns supreme, there prosperity flourished. Peace is guaranteed when countries that value freedom and human rights come together as one. Korea’s own journey is a living testament to this truth. Our story showcases the political, economic and cultural potential that is unleashed when embracing the ideals of freedom, human rights and the rule of law. As Korea aspires to become a Global Pivotal State, we are committed to standing in solidarity with the international community to safeguard and advance these values.
Anthony Blinken at the summit, also lauded South Korea:
It’s particularly fitting – in fact, it’s even a little bit poignant – that we’re gathered here in Seoul, in Korea, for this third Summit for Democracy – a nation that transformed, over a single generation, into one of the strongest, most dynamic democracies in the world, a champion of democracy for the world.
Blinken also highlighted South Korea’s “commitment to freedom” and its strong ties to the US because of that commitment:
We’ve invested in the foundation of our strength, our democracies, while also deepening ties to our partners who share our commitment to freedom, to equal opportunity, to human rights, to the rule of law….[this] is why Seoul will take up the mantle now in leading the third Summit for Democracy next year….At a time of tremendous challenge to the international rule of law and the United Nations Charter, to our democracies, indeed to our planet, Mr. President [Yoon], your principled leadership has helped bring us even closer together and has made Korea a global pivotal state.
What did the US know, and when did it know it?
This US support, encouragement, investment and deep ties to Yoon begs the obvious question: What did the US know about the coup, and when did it know it?
The Pentagon refuses to comment on whether it was notified in advance.
However, it’s virtually impossible for them not to have known. All previous military coups in South Korea have been greenlighted by the US. This is because the US has de facto control over all troops in South Korea; the Korean military reports to the CFC/UNC command, a joint command led by the USFK general. The US also maintains “wartime” opcon (meaning it has operational control anytime it wants).
All troop movements have to be reported to and coordinated with the US, if for no other reason than to avoid a friendly fire incident in a densely militarily-territorialized area bristling with troops, arms, surveillance, and weapons on hair trigger alert.
And the SK special forces, like the ones at the National Assembly, are the most tightly integrated with the US of any military–it is the only US special operations command in the world where the US and host nation’s Special warfare forces merge into a single entity. From their own website:
Since its inception, SOCKOR (Special Operations Command, Korea) continues to be the only theater SOC (special operations command) in which U.S. and host nation SOF (special operations forces) are institutionally organized for combined operations. SOCKOR and Republic of Korea (ROK) Army Special Warfare Command (SWC) regularly train in their combined roles, while SOCKOR’s Special Forces Detachment acts as the liaison between ROK Special Forces and the U.S. Special Forces.
…If the armistice fails, SOCKOR and ROK SWC will combine to establish the Combined Special Operations Component Command Korea (CSOCC-K)…Under the current plan, when CSOCC-K, the SOCKOR Commander becomes the CSOCC-K Deputy Commander. SOCKOR is then designated as the United Nations Command Special Operations Component under the United Nations Command, with the SOCKOR Commander as the Special Operations Component Commander.
Minus the jargon, it means Korean special operations forces train and coordinate with US special forces almost as a single fighting unit. It’s highly unlikely a detachment could kit up completely without the US asking, “Where are you going at this late hour?”. “Oh, nowhere”, doesn’t cut it.
Also, the Korean peninsula is the most densely surveilled place on the planet, and every inch of land and airspace is monitored. It’s surmised that the helicopters ferrying the troops to the National Assembly were delayed in getting air transit clearance because that area is one of the most highly restricted areas for air travel. That air space surveillance and control is likely directly reported and coordinated with US command. In other words, there is US complicity somewhere along the chain.
And right now, according to a military watchdog, all military leave in Korea has been cancelled. That’s ominous–a second Martial Law declaration is possible.
What comes next?
It’s unclear what comes next. The only certainty, for the vast majority of Koreans, is that Yoon can no longer govern. Like a drunk driver–drunk in this case with power–the keys to the vehicle have to be wrested away from him. Traditionally, in Korean politics, the end comes in the form of resignation (Syngman Rhee, 1960), assassination (Park Chung Hee, 1979), Impeachment (Park Geun-hye), usually followed by imprisonment or exile. If Yoon is successfully impeached, and the impeachment upheld in the Constitutional Court–provided the court can find quorum–an election and a peaceful transition of power could occur. That is still a distant hypothetical. Meanwhile, Yoon could face prosecution for insurrection, a capital crime, something that he does not have immunity from–and most certainly for other crimes if he is stripped of power. The stakes are tremendous and the only thing certain is that there will be more twists and turns.
Unbewitching Ourselves
Only by a stroke of luck–delayed helicopters–and a lot of pluck–angry citizens roused from their beds, e-commerce truck drivers abandoning deliveries, sexagenarian parliamentarians engaging in parkour–was a political catastrophe and democratic meltdown averted this time.
This failed coup constitutes a legitimacy crisis in one of the US’s most important vassal states, one of an ongoing stream of ongoing crises for the US Empire among its vassals. Touted as one of the most important leaders and partners in promoting (US-designated) democracy in a “global fight against autocracies”–Kurt Campbell even nominated for a Nobel Prize–Yoon has shown himself to be a crackpot US-client despot, like generations of tinpot dictators before him.
Yoon’s star was in favor only because he was a pliant executor of US geostrategic strategy–greasing US plans for war against China–in the high stakes agenda to maintain US global hegemony In fact, without deep US support, it’s unlikely that such a profound political dunce–someone who had never held an elected office in his life–would have become president. Certainly, he received dramatic pre-election support from the US ruling imperial elite, for whom he was a walking fulfillment list. When he was elected, the champagne corks blew up in Washington.
By reverting to full barbarian-authoritarian-mode, the mask has fallen off this imperial clown show of US propaganda.
This is the real story of South Korea’s coup: as the Empire weakens, its forcefield of mystification wanes. Its producers slip up, its hired actors mumble and miss cues, stagehands misplace props, and the extras walk off the set. And we start to notice things behind the shimmering scrim. Things break, fall apart, the illusion cannot hold.
Yoon’s sudden fall from grace is not a symptom of Korea’s robust democracy, neither is it a sign that South Korea is stable and resilient. There are still many dangers lurking as the ship of state struggles to right itself: possibly more emergency decrees, more military action, certainly more protests and political turmoil.
But the 6-hour coup is certainly an unmasking of Yoon as an incompetent despot of the Empire, and the fraudulence of the Empire managers who sold him as a paragon of political virtue.
Breaking the propaganda trance, is the place to start to break the hold of the Empire, as a full blown legitimacy crisis rages all around the world. Courageous Koreans smashed that trance momentarily. Will others join them?
How Yoon’s Martial Law Blunder Could Help Trump Make Peace
In South Korea, it is considered to be a curse, rather than a blessing, to suggest to someone that their child could grow up to become president one day. To see why, just look at their track record. Rhee Syngman was forced into exile after a “color revolution,” Park Chung-Hee was assassinated, Yun Po-Sun and Choi Kyu-Hah were ousted in coups, Roh Moo-Hyun was impeached and later committed suicide, Chun Doo-Hwan, Roh Tae-Woo, Lee Myung-Bak, and Park Geun-Hye all ended up in prison, while Kim Young Sam and Kim Dae-Jung had both been incarcerated before they were elected to the presidency. Their most recent president, Moon Jae-In is no doubt nervously wondering about his own future.
Eight years ago this very week, on December 9, 2016, conservative President Park Geun-Hye, the daughter of former South Korean dictator Park Chung-Hee, was impeached following public outrage over a bizarre corruption scandal involving a cult leader known as the “Korean Rasputin.” A million Koreans took to the streets in protest, demanding her removal from office, a feat which was finally accomplished in March 2017. According to South Korean law, when the president is removed from office, a new election must be held within 60 days. That election, in May 2017, led to progressive leader Moon Jae-In taking the reins of power.
Park was a hawk when it came to dealing with North Korea, often speaking of the potential of a “unification jackpot” in which South Korean industry would win big from gaining access to the natural resources that are found in abundance in North Korea, including an estimated two-thirds of all rare earth minerals in the entire world!
By contrast, her replacement, Moon, was pro-engagement and sought peaceful coexistence with their compatriots to the North, creating a radically different geopolitical environment on the peninsula beginning in Spring 2017.
Meanwhile, in the United States, Donald Trump was elected president for the first time in November 2016, just a month before Park’s impeachment, and Moon’s rise to the presidency came just a few months after Trump took office.
Seeing himself as the ultimate dealmaker, Trump seized the opportunity provided by the presence of a pro-peace South Korean administration and became the first President to engage in direct talks with a sitting North Korean leader in 2018, and I was there as part of Dennis Rodman’s entourage.
While the summits Moon and Trump had with Chairman Kim Jong Un did not lead to any major substantive accomplishments, they were an important first step toward peace. Had it not been for the COVID-19 pandemic, things might have moved in a different trajectory, but with the DPRK hermetically sealed from 2020-2023, and Trump preoccupied with the pandemic in the last year of his first term, there was no chance to follow up on those first steps in a constructive manner.
The strange events of the past few days in Seoul may be lightning striking twice, as South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol may have just committed political suicide by suddenly declaring martial law at 11 PM on Tuesday night. By Wednesday, the opposition parties, which control the National Assembly by a wide margin, filed a motion to impeach Yoon, almost eight years to the day after Park Geun-Hye was impeached and exactly one month after Donald Trump was again elected President of the United States.
If Yoon were to be replaced in early 2025, rather than when his official term ends in 2027, it is probable that his replacement would be from the opposition party that favors engagement with the North and a ratcheting down of military tension on the peninsula. This could pave the way for Trump to engage with the North Koreans in a more favorable geopolitical situation than exists at the moment.
Of course, this is all speculation, but South Koreans certainly have put the ‘Z’ in “democraZy” over the past few decades, and there is no reason to believe they will be any more predictable this time around.
Imagine for a moment that when confronted with Congressional threats to shutdown the US government by failing to pass his requested budget in a timely manner (an annual tradition when Congress and the President are from different parties), an unpopular sitting American president declared martial law, sent the military to occupy Capitol Hill, to prevent Congress from working, banned all political activity, and put the press under military control. That would make January 6th seem like a tailgating party by comparison.
And yet, that is essentially what happened in Seoul on December 3rd, when South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol suddenly declared martial law, claiming to protect the nation by eradicating “shameless pro-North anti-state forces,” and “North Korean sympathizers,” presumably referring to members of the opposition party who control the National Assembly, and had blocked his recent budget requests repeatedly.
Before military troops could reach the National Assembly to shut down its activities, in accordance with the marital law decree, a quorum of members made it to the assembly, and voted 190 – 0 to rescind the martial law declaration, as permitted under South Korean law.
Given that even his own party voted unanimously against his decree, he was forced to lift martial law after only six hours. Since Wednesday morning, there have been widespread calls for his resignation, impeachment, and even imprisonment all over the country.
An increasingly unpopular president, Yoon-Suk-Yeol, has seen his popularity with the public plummet since he took office in 2022, to a low of 17% in November. He was already so unpopular at the time of elections for the National Assembly that his party only managed to take 108 of the 300 seats, giving the opposition the ability to block any proposed legislation – what Americans refer to as “gridlock,” forcing him to compromise with them to get anything done, something he has been unwilling to do, and which he tried to circumvent with his declaration of martial law on Tuesday night.
Why was he so unpopular? On foreign policy, his hawkish policies on North Korea, his unpopular efforts to tighten a military alliance with their former colonial master, Japan, and his eagerness to send weapons systems to Ukraine to counter North Korean support to Russia were extremely unpopular.
On the domestic front, while Western countries have been toying with the idea of a four-day work week, he tried to raise the maximum work week from 52 to 69 hours, as a “family-friendly” policy. He almost doubled the number of students being accepted to medical school, leading to mass resignations and strikes by doctors. Adding fuel to the fire have been significant complaints about how his government handled the 2022 Halloween stampede that led to 159 untimely deaths in Itaewon, all as Yoon and his wife are fighting scandals related to corruption and influence-peddling.
Yoon has also been accused of undermining Korean democracy and flirting with authoritarianism. And Tuesday night, that flirtation finally went all the way with the declaration of martial law, in what seems to have been an emotional last-ditch effort to save his floundering presidency which seems to have backfired spectacularly.
Just hours before the proverbial shit hit the fan in Seoul, an Op-Ed I wrote about the potential for Trump to restart dialog with Kim Jong Un appeared on this very website. Despite the optimism in that article, my biggest worries were that Yoon’s administration would try to block any substantive moves toward engagement until his term ended in 2027, and that a negotiated lasting peace in Ukraine was a prerequisite for meaningful change.
In terms of North Korea policy, Yoon Suk-Yeol’s presidency marked a return to the confrontational policies that existed prior to 2017, under the Park Geun-Hye regime. While US-ROK Joint military exercises were suspended during the Trump/Moon era, in August 2022, they restarted with “the biggest military drills in years.” His military chief then declared that the military posture of the South would focus on “sending a fatal blow to the enemy” using their KMPR (Korean Massive Punishment and Retaliation) strategy, which includes personally targeting and eliminating the leaders of the DPRK. He further declared that the DPRK was the principal enemy of the ROK, and that unification would be pursued with the goal of a unified, free, and democratic “Republic of Korea”, (통일대한민국). His use of the official South Korean name for the country makes no bones of the fact that he wants unification by absorption.
The move from the peaceful engagement strategy of Moon to Yoon’s focus on decapitation of the leadership and absorption of the North within the ROK precipitated dramatic changes in North Korean policy, leading Kim Jong Un to declare that as of January 2024, the DPRK was no longer interested in unification with the South (in other words, he said the quiet part out loud.).
In a speech to the Supreme People’s Assembly on January 16, 2024, he said, “Today, the Supreme People’s Assembly put an end to the nearly 80-year history of North-South relations, and newly codified our Republic’s policy toward the South on the basis of recognizing the two countries coexisting on the Korean Peninsula… the final conclusion given by the bitter history of North-South relations is that we cannot walk the path to national revival and reunification with the people of the Republic of Korea who dream of ‘collapse of the regime’ and ‘unification through absorption’ while pursuing an all-out confrontation with our republic as a national policy.”
He added, “If you take a hard look at the special environment where our biggest enemy, the so-called Republic of Korea is our nearest neighbor, and the reality that the local situation is increasingly unstable due to the intensified military tensions under leadership of the Americans, the risk of war as a result of the escalation of a physical conflict has increased to a dangerous level.”
While Western media took this to be a highly aggressive change of policy by Kim Jong-Un, it was reactive (and almost equal and opposite) to the aggressive moves the Yoon administration had taken toward inter-Korean relations. Obviously, the DPRK does not wish to be absorbed into South Korea any more than the ROK wants to become controlled by Pyongyang.
Even beyond the peninsula, the geopolitical landscape is much different than it was in 2017, as the alliance between the DPRK and Russia has developed to a whole new level, with DPRK soldiers deployed to the Kursk region of the Russian Federation potentially to engage in conflict alongside the Russians as they try to reclaim occupied territories in the region from Ukrainian control. Until the Ukraine war ends with a negotiated and lasting settlement, it is hard to see how much progress can be made.
In the past, Russia tried to help catalyze US – DPRK negotiations, but in the current environment, it seems unlikely that will be the case, as Russia knows the US would likely pressure the DPRK to break its newly solidified alliance with the Russians in any such negotiations. On the other hand, China would probably pick up some of the slack as while they have little influence over the DPRK, they would prefer to diffuse tensions on the Korean peninsula, and they fully realize some sort of détente with the US is key to getting there.
Donald Trump, however, repeatedly claims that he will be able to end the Ukraine war in the first 24 hours of his second term. Assuming he somehow manages to build peace in Ukraine even within the first six months of his term (granting him some poetic license), that would help open the door for constructive re-engagement with Kim Jong Un.
It is an ironic twist of fate, that exactly eight years after Park Geun-Hye’s impeachment paved the way for the Trump-Kim bromance of 2018 and 2019, that there is a possibility for history to repeat itself, just as Trump is preparing to return to office for a second time. For Trump, this would be equivalent to lightning striking twice, giving him a second chance at peacebuilding with a potentially cooperative South Korean counterpart. Let’s hope Trump will seize the moment and take advantage of this serendipity to get back to his unfinished business with renewed vigor!
Joseph D. Terwilliger is Professor of Neurobiology at Columbia University Irving Medical Center, where his research focuses on natural experiments in human genetic epidemiology. He is also active in science and sports diplomacy, having taught genetics at the Pyongyang University of Science and Technology, and accompanied Dennis Rodman on six “basketball diplomacy” trips to Asia since 2013.
No comments:
Post a Comment