UK

Labour on Thin Ice

DECEMBER 12, 2024

A new report from Compass shows that, contrary to what Labour’s dominant faction claim, the Party faces a greater electoral threat from the left than the right. It should change course accordingly.

Straight after the July general election, former Labour NEC member Mish Rahman correctly noted that there are no safe seats anymore. This new report from the centre-left group Compass, Thin Ice: Why the UK’s progressive majority could stop Labour’s landslide melting away, underlines this.

Labour’s landslide should be viewed cautiously. There were 202 seats where a progressive candidate won – the authors include the Lib Dems and nationalists in this designation – but the combined vote for the Conservatives and Reform was greater than the number of votes cast for the winning candidate. Additionally, 131 Labour seats were won by a margin of fewer than 5,000 votes, with 103 secured by less than 5% of the vote.

Record low voter turnout and increased electoral volatility underline the fragility of Labour’s win. Labour’s seats tally may look impressive, thanks to the distortions of first-past-the-post, but its vote share was just 34%, the smallest for a majority-winning party in British political history.

A key finding of the research for this report is that Labour Together, the Starmer-supporting centre-right group that controls the Party apparatus, got it wrong recently when it claimed the greatest electoral threat to Labour comes from parties to its right.

In fact, says the report, “Labour’s prospects are threatened by losing its existing electoral coalition to other progressive parties and independents after failing to sufficiently change the country – and in so doing fuelling the return of the Conservatives and the rise of the populist and even far-right.”

Polling carried out for the report said of those who voted Labour in July, more than twice as many would consider moving to a party on the left than to one on the right.

The conclusion the authors draw from this is what you would expect from Compass: “By electorally and programmatically working with other progressive parties it can grow its support, and secure real change for the country.”

But as the report admits, “New polling also reveals clear public support for Labour adopting a more radical progressive policy platform.” So an alternative to an electoral alliance with other parties might simply be a more radical, popular, inclusive Labour policy pitch.

Radical measures that Compass’s polling shows already enjoy majority support include upgrading older homes to be more energy-efficient, bringing the water network back into public ownership, increasing taxes on wealth and removing means-testing for the winter fuel allowance.

Speaking at a post-election event, Christabel Cooper, Research Director at Labour Together, conceded that Labour will need a strategy to win back votes lost on its left to Independents and Greens. So far there is no sign of that.

The urban voters particularly who turned to the left of Labour are less likely to be won over by talk of electoral alliances that the offer of clear policies that meet their needs. As Momentum tweeted in response to the report, “The Labour Leadership must offer bold, popular policies, such as public ownership and reversing cuts to Winter Fuel Payments, to fix the crises we face.”

Compass’s research found that Labour’s support among Muslim voters fell by over a quarter at the last election. “However, Labour experienced big vote reductions even in inner city seats that had a small Muslim population. Seats like Liverpool Riverside and Newcastle East saw sharp falls in the Labour vote.”

In 2024, Labour’s only solid resurgence was in Scotland, as John Curtice noted at the time: “Actually, but for the rise of the Labour Party in Scotland… we would be reporting that basically Labour’s vote has not changed from what it was in 2019.” 

Labour’s vote in Scotland increased by 16% and was the result of an almost direct transfer of votes from the Scottish National Party to Labour. Today, the SNP is again ahead of Labour in the polls – and by a big margin.

One thing is clear: Labour will not win again with more of the same. It could be squeezed both in its Red Wall heartlands and in its new southern territories. A radical plan to tackle the cost of living, health, housing and climate crises could halt that – but so far has not been forthcoming.

There is, as Compass argue, a progressive majority in Britain. The challenge facing Labour – and the left more generally – is how to mobilise it.

Thin Ice: Why the UK’s progressive majority could stop Labour’s landslide melting away is available here.