UPDATED
After Aleppo, what will happen to the Kurds of northwest Syria? (Plus statements from Kurdish and Syrian organisations)
First published in The New Arab.
The momentous takeover of Syria’s second city, Aleppo, and surrounding areas on 29 November by the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Turkish-backed self-styled Syrian National Army (SNA) has significant ramifications for Syria and possibly the wider region.
More immediate, however, is its impact on the hundreds of thousands of Kurds who live in northwest Syria.
As Aleppo collapsed to the lightning HTS-led offensive, the Turkish-backed SNA seized on the momentum to capture the town of Tel Rifaat and surrounding villages from the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG).
Tens of thousands of Kurds have fled from that area. They are enduring freezing winter conditions on their way to the relative safety of the Kurdish-administered territories east of the Euphrates River.
HTS originated as an offshoot of Al-Qaeda called Jabhat al-Nusra and has fought the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad since the early years of the civil war that began in 2011. The group has established itself as Assad’s most formidable adversary in the conflict and has long controlled large parts of Syria’s strategic northwestern Idlib province.
The SNA consists of numerous armed groups that Turkey has used as proxies, mainly against the YPG and the larger multi-ethnic Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), of which the YPG is the backbone. Turkey used these rebels to invade the northwestern Kurdish enclave of Afrin in 2018, displacing tens of thousands of its native population, primarily into the adjacent Tel Rifaat area. These same Kurds now find themselves displaced once again.
Aleppo city has two Kurdish-majority neighbourhoods, Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafiyeh. Altogether, there are approximately 500,000 Kurds in this large northwestern area west of the Euphrates River, now largely under HTS and SNA control.
“Kurds have had a bad experience with HTS folks from the Jabhat al-Nusra days,” Mohammed A. Salih, Non-Resident Senior Fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute and an expert on Kurdish and regional affairs, told The New Arab.
“The fundamental problem with many Assad opposition groups is that they are chauvinistic toward Kurds, perhaps as a result of decades of Baathist exclusionary nationalist teachings,” he said.
In Salih’s estimation, most of these groups are Islamist extremists, putting them at odds with the majority of Syria’s Kurdish minority.
“Kurds want to deal with a party in the opposition that is willing to take into account their demands for cultural and political rights as a distinct community within Syria,” Salih said. “And even though the majority of Syrian Kurds are Muslims, they are staunchly secular in their way of life and expect this to be respected.”
In his view, Kurdish civilians are undoubtedly in danger due to the current circumstances in Aleppo and other areas west of the Euphrates.
“Kurds cannot trust the HTS or the SNA,” Salih said. “They have good reason for this based on the ideological nature of these groups and their past records both in dealing with them and the non-Sunni, non-Arab and non-Turkmen populations of Syria,” he added. “It’s a very fluid and unpredictable situation.”
Consequently, he believes the “best option” for Kurds is to evacuate east of the Euphrates, where the SDF is in a much better position to protect them. Reports suggest that the YPG has begun pulling forces from the Kurdish-majority neighbourhoods in coordination with HTS to allow Kurdish residents to evacuate.
It’s unclear if HTS can provide security guarantees for any Kurds who decide to remain in their homes in the city.
“In Aleppo, it depends on whether the YPG can reach a reliable understanding with HTS there for Kurdish civilians not to be harmed. There is no guarantee for that,” Salih said.
“In reality, it is more likely that a humanitarian disaster will materialise as a result of the influx of tens of thousands of displaced people to SDF-controlled areas in west Euphrates, which are already stretched thin in terms of resources and governance capabilities,” he added.
Kyle Orton, an independent Middle East analyst, described the present situation for Kurds in northern Syria as “precarious” but believes they have a better chance of surviving under HTS rule than other Syrian minorities.
“In theory, HTS’s Islamist worldview is actually less of a menace to Kurds per se, those that do not have ties to the YPG, since Kurds are Muslims,” Orton told TNA. “Christians and particularly Alawis have the most to fear from HTS rule, again in theory.”
He noted that HTS has made a “concerted effort to present a tolerant face” towards minorities in areas it has controlled, such as Christians in Idlib.
“How long any of this lasts is anyone’s guess: whatever the formal status of HTS’s relations with Al-Qaeda, it is a jihadist-derived entity, and there is every reason for scepticism,” Orton said.
“Assuming HTS does not initiate a concerted campaign of persecution against Kurds in Sheikh Maqsoud and other Kurdish-majority areas it has captured, we should expect most people to stay put,” he added.
“Settled communities will endure great hardships to maintain their homes and only move when they really have no other choice.”
Both analysts see the Turkish-backed SNA as a markedly more significant threat to Kurds than HTS.
“What we are seeing is that there is an actual demographic change campaign against Kurds underway in areas west of the Euphrates, particularly those areas under the control of the SNA. The SNA represents the most anti-Kurdish faction among the anti-Assad opposition groups,” Salih said.
“Kurds in the Tel Rifaat and the entire Shahba region are in danger of retribution by SNA groups whose entire mission at this point at Turkey’s behest appears to be fighting Kurds,” he added. “A mass displacement of Kurds from these areas is already going on.”
Orton also believes the SNA is a “much more worrying” threat to Kurds.
“There is little discipline in SNA ranks, and its fighters carry a much more bitterly ethno-sectarian outlook,” he said. “The chances of indiscriminate attacks on Kurdish populations by the SNA are much higher, and even without a targeted assault, the SNA’s governance methods are much more predatory and chaotic,” he added.
“It will not be so easy to live a ‘normal’ life in areas the SNA administers, and there is every reason to expect a larger outflow of Kurds.”
As if matters couldn’t get any worse, this new crisis could unwittingly end up empowering remnants of the Islamic State (IS) if the SDF has to focus its attention and resources elsewhere. The US has partnered with the SDF against IS for a decade now. The SDF was the main fighting force against IS, dismantling the entirety of its territorial self-styled caliphate on Syrian soil by 2019.
“It has to be assumed that the SDF will take contingency steps to protect its borders, and to that extent, its focus on IS diminishes. Odds are that IS will try to make its presence felt in the current melee,” Orton said.
“It seems likely IS will make its move in the northwest, at the centre of the action, but it could well be within the SDF statelet, especially if developments extend the instability further east,” he added.
Salih also believes the post-29 November turmoil is “inevitably impacting” SDF priorities.
“If Kurds are under attack in northwestern Syria, SDF fighters will have less incentive to prioritise the fight against IS,” he said.
In Salih’s view, this situation “highlights a fundamental miscalculation” in America’s strategy toward Syria’s Kurds, namely focusing exclusively on their joint fight against IS. By doing so, Washington ignored the “dire governance and humanitarian conditions” in the SDF-controlled areas caused by Turkish strikes and now the mass displacement and killing of Kurds in northwest Syria.
“This approach is unsustainable and counterproductive,” Salih said. “If continued, it will only further bolster IS and recreate the conditions for its resurgence.”
Paul Iddon is a freelance journalist based in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan, who writes about Middle East affairs.
Syrian Democratic Forces: ‘We will stand firm and fulfill our historic duty to safeguard the region and its people’
First published at SDF Press Centre on December 1.
This week has witnessed a large-scale attack and substantial shifts have happened. Damascus government forces have deteriorated in Aleppo and other regions. It is no doubt that this attack is orchestrated by the Turkish occupation state, with the ultimate goal of occupying the entire Syrian territory. However, the primary target of this attack remains the areas under the Autonomous Administration to prevent the peaceful coexistence of the region’s diverse peoples, including Kurds, Arabs, Syriacs, and other communities. The Autonomous Administration’s regions are facing a large-scale attack, with a particular focus on the areas of Al-Shahba’a and Aleppo. This constitutes a grave threat to the survival of our people.
This critical moment represents a historic turning point for all Syrians, especially those residing in the Democratic Autonomous Administration. The sole objective of this attack is to our safe areas and ultimately occupy Syrian territory. The aggressor seeks to inflict suffering upon all the region’s peoples.
For several days, our brave fighters have been fiercely resisting the ongoing attacks on the Manbij front and west of the Euphrates.
Our Syrian Democratic Forces have consistently fulfilled their duty to liberate and protect the region. We reaffirm our commitment to these historical responsibilities, regardless of the cost. We will stand firm against these attacks and fulfill our historic duty to safeguard the region and its people. There should be no doubt about our resolve. We urge everyone to heed the call for public mobilization and to coordinate closely with the SDF and Internal Security Forces. It is imperative that we stand united in these challenging times.
In these historic days, we call upon our people to join forces in the defense of their villages, cities, and the entire region. We must participate in the people’s revolutionary war and fulfill our duty to protect our homeland. We call upon the youth of the region, including Kurds, Arabs, Syriacs, Assyrians, Armenians, and Circassians, to fulfill their historical role by joining the resistance fronts and enlisting in the ranks of the SDF, YPG, and YPJ.
The current war is a noble struggle for humanity and human dignity. It is a war to protect the values of freedom and civilization against the obscurantist ideologies of ISIS and Erdogan. This is a war for light and liberation, a war that guarantees a future of coexistence and brotherhood among peoples.
We urge the young men and women of the region to join the SDF and contribute to building a free future. We are confident that with the active participation of our youth, we can repel this attack and thwart the plans of the Turkish occupation and its mercenaries.
SDF General Command
December 1, 2024
Syrian Democratic Council: ‘We hold the Syrian regime accountable for the ongoing crisis in the country’
First published at Syrian Democratic Council on December 2.
The Syrian Democratic Council (SDC) strongly condemns the resurgence of violence in Syria. It expresses deep concern over the overall developments in the country, including the takeover of Aleppo city and the countryside of Hama by Turkish-backed armed groups without resistance.
The SDC condemns the threats faced by Syrian civilians across the country. Also, it calls on the international community to take immediate and effective action to halt the escalating violence in northwestern Syria. It urges the exertion of maximum pressure on all conflicting parties to cease fire. The goal is to engage in comprehensive new peace talks that represent the Syrian people and their aspirations. These talks should include the participation of all relevant Syrian parties without exclusion.
The SDC holds the Syrian regime accountable for the ongoing crisis in the country, blaming it for rejecting all initiatives aimed at preventing a humanitarian disaster in Syria. Furthermore, it directly holds the Turkish occupation accountable for the recent escalation of violence in northwestern Syria.
Additionally, it expresses deep concern over the dire humanitarian situation faced by the displaced people from al-Shahbaa region. Moreover, it calls upon the United Nations and the UN Security Council to intervene immediately. It urges the international community to take swift action to protect all Syrian civilians from the imminent threat posed by Turkish-backed groups, which have previously committed war crimes, genocide, and forced displacement.
The SDC warns of the dangers of the Islamic State ISIS) exploiting the recent escalation in northwestern Syria. In addition, it calls on the US-led Global Coalition to strengthen its support for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in their fight against ISIS. Consequently, it expresses serious concerns regarding the anxieties of Iraqi people, and emphasizes the need for cooperation between Iraqi forces and the SDF, in coordination with the Global Coalition, to enhance the fight against terrorism.
On the other hand, the SDC affirms the importance of the Russian Federation’s role in supporting a comprehensive political solution. At the same time, it reiterates its openness to engage in dialogue with Turkey, rejecting all pretexts used to justify further occupation of Syrian territory.
Therefore, under these critical circumstances, the SDC assures these matters for the Syrian people as follows:
1- The continuation of conflicts among Syrian parties only serves the enemies of the Syrian people and exacerbates the suffering of civilians. Therefore, the SDC calls for prioritizing engaging in the national dialogue over the use of force.
2- The SDC calls for an end to all violations targeting specific components of the Syrian society. Also, it reaffirms that Kurds and other national and religious minorities are an integral part of Syria’s history and people.
3- The Syrian crisis can only be resolved through a just political solution that guarantees the rights of all Syrians and achieves justice, freedom, and equality. This solution should be free from any external interference or attempts to impose a new reality by force.
In conclusion, Syrian national dialogue is the sole pathway to resolving the Syrian crisis experienced by the Syrian people as a whole. The SDC is open to dialogue with all Syrians to strengthen Syria’s unity, security, and sovereignty. It also appeals to all patriotic Syrians in all regions of Syria to resist incitement, revenge, and malicious propaganda. It also emphasizes the importance of adhering to the political solution that is in line with UN Resolution 2254, which ensures a democratic transition. This transition should strengthen Syria’s unity and sovereignty, within the framework of a decentralized democratic political regime that meets the aspirations of all Syrians.
Syrian Democratic Council
December 2, 2024
Women’s Protection Units: ‘Led by women, our people have shown great resilience in the face of these attacks’
First published at Women’s Protection Units on December 2.
Over the past several days, our region, along with all of Syrian territory, has been subjected to a large-scale attack from multiple fronts. It began in Aleppo, where the Syrian people were left face to face with horrific massacres. Simultaneously, these attacks targeted our areas in North and East Syria, where we have demonstrated relentless resistance against these extensive assaults, particularly in the regions of Shahba and Aleppo. Our people, led by women, have shown great resilience in the face of these attacks.
Our people in Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafieh, who have gained extensive experience in resistance and warfare over the years, have once again organized themselves against these assaults. Operating under the name of the Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafieh Protection Forces, they have thwarted dozens of attacks by mercenaries of the Turkish occupation state.
Undoubtedly, the war continues on multiple fronts. Unfortunately, several young men and women of the Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafieh Liberation Forces have fallen captive to these mercenaries. These barbaric mercenaries, who have no regard for the ethics or laws of war, have heinously violated the dignity of the women prisoners, using them as tools for propaganda on their media outlets. They have shamelessly declared to the captive women that they would once again sell them in slave markets. Such actions are utterly inhumane and must not be tolerated.
As the Women’s Protection Units (YPJ), we strongly condemn the brutal acts of the Turkish occupation mercenaries against the captured women and pledge that we will avenge them. We call upon international organizations, particularly Amnesty International and the International Committee of the Red Cross(ICRC), as well as all women’s and human rights organizations, to fulfill their duties in protecting these women who defended their neighborhoods and cities. We insist on the necessity of safeguarding their rights as prisoners of war.
The atrocities committed today by the Turkish occupation mercenaries against the captured young women mirror those carried out by the terrorist organization “ISIS” in 2014 in Sinjar, Mosul, and Raqqa, where thousands of women were sold in slave markets. These actions represent the patriarchal mindset that reached its peak with “ISIS” and Erdogan’s mercenaries. They are well aware that Kurdish women have written heroic epics against their barbaric practices, resisting to the very end. This is why their inhumane practices have escalated to the level of outright hostility against women.
We direct our call to women’s rights organizations, civil society organizations, prominent figures, freedom advocates, and democrats to protect the captive women. It is imperative to expose the brutality of the Turkish occupation state and its mercenaries on a global scale, revealing the extent of their terrorism and holding Erdogan and the Turkish occupation state accountable for this war and the atrocities committed against the captured young women.
As the Women’s Protection Units (YPJ), we once again condemn the captivity of the female fighters from the Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafieh Protection Forces. We affirm that we will hold the Turkish occupation state and its mercenaries accountable on the frontlines of resistance. In this context, during these historic days marked by extensive attacks on our regions and Syria as a whole, we declare that we stand on the frontlines to protect all women and our people. We also call upon all young women, wherever they may be, to join the ranks of the Women’s Protection Units (YPJ) and take their place on the frontlines of defense. Only in this way can we protect our land and dignity.
The General Command of the Women’s Protection Units (YPJ)
02.12.2024
Kurdistan Democratic Communities Union: ‘It is necessary to be organized, prepare self-defense and prevent occupation’
Published at KCK on December 1.
Once again, it is aimed at deepening the chaos and conflicts in Syria through the deployment of reactionary fascist gangs. For this purpose, the gangs that are being fed by Turkey are directed firstly against Aleppo and are now headed towards Hama and other cities. Simultaneously, an invasion attack was launched against Shahba. At the same time, there are attacks on all of Northern and Eastern Syria. Unfortunately, the Syrian state lacked the will to face the attacks, did not take a stance to defend the people, and abandoned all the places where the gangs were headed. As a result, all the peoples of Syria are facing the threat of a massacre.
A global plan is being executed against the Middle East and Syria. The Turkish state is taking advantage of this situation to realize its genocidal, colonialist, racist, and expansionist aims. It wants to eliminate the gains of the peoples, particularly the Kurdish people, and realize the Kurdish genocide. Behind the attacks launched by these gangs stands the Turkish state and the aforementioned aims of the Turkish state. It is very clear that this offensive will be the cause of more massacres and genocide in Syria and the Middle East. They aim to break the peoples against each other and deepen the existing problems. Giving a role to the Turkish state both in Syria and the Middle East will lead to extremely dangerous consequences.
As a movement, we have always been in favor of all peoples living together, equally and freely, in Syria, and we have strived for this to be realized. The creation of a democratic Syria is the only correct solution for the benefit of all Syrian peoples. We believe that the construction of a democratic Syria is a project that would also contribute to the democratization of the Middle East and the solution of its problems. The Turkish state, on the other hand, intervenes in the situation in Syria with racist, genocidal, and expansionist ambitions and thereby blocks the democratization of Syria and the development of democratization in the Middle East. It approaches Syria with an anti-Kurdish mentality and has set as its main goal the elimination of the democratic autonomous administration. This has led to the deepening of the insoluble situation in Syria. The aim of the Turkish state is to eliminate the democratic autonomous administration, to prevent the development of a democratic solution in Syria, and to take Syria under its domination. The attacks launched again recently by the gangs serve also this purpose. The Turkish state is preparing to take action against Rojava with the attack of the gangs and to eliminate the revolution by occupying Rojava.
An extraordinary process is taking place both in Rojava and in all of Syria. The Turkish state is taking advantage of the situation and trying to implement its policies of occupation and genocide. For this purpose, it is trying to carry out massacres and eliminate the autonomous administration by invading Northern and Eastern Syria by both backing the gangs and taking action itself. Against this, our peoples must organize everywhere on the basis of self-defense, defend themselves, and prevent any occupation and massacres. The dangers that arise can only be overcome by developing the self-defense of the people. Our people must be vigilant; they must defend themselves without waiting for help from elsewhere. Our people must act together and integrate with the defense forces wherever they are. The process has made it vital to develop the Revolutionary People’s War. Based on this, our peoples must organize and act on the basis of the strategy of revolutionary people’s war by developing their self-defense.
Co-Presidency, KCK Executive Council
Kurdistan National Congress: Escalation in Syria as Islamists loyal to Turkey launch attack on Kurdish areas
First published at KNK on November 29.
Following the outbreak of the heaviest fighting in Syria in several years, Kurdish areas are now under acute threat from attacks by jihadist groups cooperating with Turkey. While the Islamist group Haiat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda formerly known as al-Nusra Front, has been advancing on Aleppo since Wednesday and fighting with the Assad regime’s forces, the Turkish-loyal mercenaries of the so-called Syrian National Army (SNA) are currently preparing a major attack on the Kurdish region of Tal Rifaat in northwestern Syria. The Turkish army is already bombing the region from the air and on the ground. Attacks on the Kurdish town of Ain Issa have also been reported. According to local sources, Turkey has also opened the border to northwestern Syria, allowing more jihadist fighters to enter Syria.
Tal Rifaat is home to several hundred thousand Kurdish refugees who were forced to flee in 2018 following Turkey’s war of aggression on Efrîn (Afrin) in violation of international law. Since then, the SNA, an alliance of various Islamist organizations and former IS fighters, and the Turkish army have controlled the region. Human rights organizations fear that the SNA’s attacks could once again drive refugees out of Efrîn. Ethnic cleansing of the Kurdish population took place in Efrin during the Turkish occupation. Since then, Turkey has expelled the majority of Kurds in the region and settled people of Arab origin, leaving the Kurdish population as a minority in the region. Systematic human rights violations such as abductions, expulsions, torture and sexual violence under the rule of Islamist militias have been reported from the region. Now the people of Tal Rifaat face a similar fate. Aleppo’s Kurdish population, which lives mainly in the neighborhoods of Shasmeqsûd and Eşrefiyê, is also threatened by the advance of Haiat Tahrir Al-Sham, an offshoot of al-Qaeda. This group has repeatedly attacked areas of Kurdish self-rule in the past during the Syrian civil war.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is a jihadist alliance that has controlled Idlib province in northwestern Syria since 2017, formed by the merger of several Islamist groups, including the al-Qaeda affiliate Nusra, which rebranded as Fateh al-Sham in 2016. Listed as a “terrorist” organization by the UN Security Council, HTS has expanded its influence into SNA-held northern Syria, often with the tacit approval of Turkey. HTS seeks to project an image of respectability and governance reliability, despite reports of an increasingly totalitarian regime and Islamist theocracy in Idlib. The international community should be wary of HTS’s expansion into Turkish-occupied territory, as it has been linked to anti-Semitic propaganda and has ties to al-Qaeda, despite efforts to distance itself from its jihadist roots. Notably, a perpetrator involved in a foiled terrorist attack in Munich expressed sympathy for HTS, highlighting the group’s continued relevance in the broader landscape of extremist threats.
Gilbert Achcar: What is happening in Syria? (Plus Leila al-Shami: ‘Our dream of an Assad-free Syria has returned with Aleppo rebel advance’)
First published in Arabic at Al-Quds al-Arabi. Translation from Gilbert Achcar's blog.
In just a few days, after having remained relatively static for a few years, Syria has turned anew into a theatre of war of movement, in what looks like a resumption of the last major displacement of the battlefronts that took place in 2016, when the Assad regime regained control of Aleppo with Iranian and Russian support and Turkish complicity. Here we are now, facing a surprise attack accompanied by a sudden expansion of the forces of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (Organization for the Liberation of al-Sham, i.e. Syria, commonly referred to by its Arabic acronym HTS), the Salafi jihadist group that has controlled the Idlib region in northwestern Syria since 2017.
As is well known, the origin of the group goes back to Jabhat al-Nusra, which was founded in 2012 as a branch of Al-Qaeda in Syria, then announced its defection from the organization under the name Jabhat Fath al-Sham in 2016, before absorbing other groups and becoming Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham the following year. The HTS invasion of Aleppo in recent days was carried out at the expense of the Syrian regime’s army, backed by Iranian and Russian forces. As for the Turkish role, it was again one of complicity, but in the opposite direction this time, as HTS has become dependent on Turkey, which is its only outlet.
Let us take a closer look at this mayhem, starting with the Turkish role. At the beginning of the popular uprising in Syria in 2011, Ankara aspired to impose its tutelage over the Syrian opposition and through it over the country in the event of its victory. It then soon cooperated with some Arab Gulf states in supporting armed groups raising Islamic banners, when the situation got militarized and transformed from a popular uprising against a sectarian, despotic family rule into a clash between two reactionary camps, exploited by a third camp formed by the Kurdish movement. These developments paved the way for the Syrian territories to become subjected to four occupations, in addition to the Zionist occupation of the Golan Heights that began in 1967: Iranian occupation (accompanied by regional forces affiliated with Tehran, most notably Lebanon’s Hezbollah) and Russian occupation backing the Assad regime; Turkish occupation in two areas on Syria’s northern border; and US deployment in the northeast, in support for the Kurdish forces confronting ISIS or its remnants.
So, what happened in recent days? The first thing to stand out was the rapidity with which the Assad regime forces collapsed in the face of the attack, recalling the collapse of the Iraqi regular forces in the face of ISIS when it crossed the border from Syria in the summer of 2014. The reason for these two collapses lies mainly in the sectarian factor, their common feature being that the Alawite majority in the Syrian forces and the Shiite majority in the Iraqi forces had no incentive to risk their lives defending the Sunni majority areas under their control targeted by the attack. Add to this the resentment created by the existing regime’s failure to create incentivizing living conditions, especially in Syria, which has been undergoing an economic collapse and a major increase in poverty for several years. Last Saturday, the Financial Times quoted an Alawite saying: “We are prepared to protect our villages and towns, but I don’t know that Alawites will fight for Aleppo city ... The regime has stopped giving us reasons to keep supporting it.”
What is clear is that HTS, along with other factions under Turkish tutelage, have decided to seize the opportunity created by the weakening of Iranian support for the Assad regime that resulted from the great losses suffered by the Lebanese Hezbollah, Iran’s main armed wing in Syria, due to Israel’s onslaught on Lebanon. This weakening, combined with the weakening of Russian support due to the involvement of the Russian armed forces in the invasion of Ukraine, created an exceptional opportunity that HTS did seize. It is also clear that Turkey blessed this attack. Since 2015, Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s shift towards playing on the Turkish nationalist chord, along with his alliance with the Turkish nationalist far right, meant that his primary concern has become the fight against the Kurdish movement. In 2016, Ankara stabbed the Syrian opposition forces in the back by allowing the Syrian regime to retake Aleppo with Iranian and Russian support, in exchange for Russia allowing it to launch Operation Euphrates Shield and seize the Jarabulus area and its surroundings, north of the Aleppo Governorate, from the Kurdish forces that were dominant there.
This time too, Ankara took advantage of the attack by HTS on Aleppo to unleash its Syrian suppletive forces against the Kurdish forces. Erdogan had previously tried to reconcile with Bashar al-Assad, offering him support in extending his regime’s control over the vast area where the Kurdish movement is dominant in the northeast. However, the latter’s insistence that Turkey hand over to him the areas it controls on the northern border thwarted the effort. Erdogan then turned against the Assads again and gave his green light to HTS’s attack, angering the backers of the Syrian regime. The “difference of viewpoints” that Iran’s foreign minister alluded to during his visit to Ankara after the start of the attack, consists in the fact that Tehran sees the greater threat in HTS, while Ankara sees it in the Kurdish forces. Despite a common hostility towards the Kurdish movement, Tehran, Moscow and Damascus had concluded a long-term truce with it, waiting for the circumstances to change to allow them to resume the offensive for the control of the whole Syrian territory, while Ankara’s relationship with that movement has remained extremely hostile, in contrast with its cooperation with HTS which controls the Idlib region.
As for Israel and the United States, they are cautiously monitoring what is happening on the ground, as the two parties – the Assad regime and HTS – are almost equally bad in their eyes (despite the UAE’s efforts to whitewash the regime and Ankara’s efforts to whitewash HTS). The Zionist state’s main concern is to prevent Iran from seizing the opportunity of this new battle to strengthen its military presence on Syrian territory and find new ways to supply Hezbollah with weapons through it.
Finally, by stirring up sectarian animosities, these developments are pushing away the only hopeful perspective that arose in recent years in Syria, constituted by the massive popular protests against the deterioration of living conditions that have been taking place in the country since 2020. These protests began in the Suwayda region (inhabited by a Druze majority) in the territories controlled by the regime, and quickly turned into demanding Bashar al-Assad’s departure and the fall of the regime, thus reviving the spirit of the popular, democratic, non-sectarian uprising that Syria witnessed amid the Arab Spring, thirteen years ago. Let us hope that the unity of the people’s interests in livelihood and emancipation will, in a not-too-distant future, lead to the renewal of the original Syrian revolution and allow the country to be reunited on the democratic basis that the pioneers of the 2011 uprising dreamed of.
Our dream of an Assad-free Syria has returned with Aleppo rebel advance
Leila al-Shami
First published at The New Arab.
Eight years after Aleppo was subjected to a brutal starvation siege, pounded by the Assad regime, Russian and Iranian bombs and thousands of its residents massacred or forcibly displaced, the Free Syria flag flies over the citadel.
The rebel advance and consequent crumbling of regime forces took everyone by surprise, rapidly changing the map of power across northern Syria which had remained largely frozen since 2020 power-sharing agreements between Russia, Turkey and Iran.
In a few days Aleppo and Idlib province came under the control of rebel groups dominated by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS).
The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army meanwhile launched an offensive in and around Tel Rifaat, under the control of the Kurdish-led, and US-backed, Syrian Democratic Forces.
Clashes were reported between opposition factions and the regime in the southern province of Daraa, whilst in Druze-dominated Suwayda, popular protests were held in support of Syrians in the north.
Syrians inside the country and abroad, were taken by surprise.
Many celebrated — whilst holding their breath, not daring to hope that this could signal the endgame for the regime.
For years, Assad has raped, tortured, starved, bombed and gassed the populace into submission. He’s been kept in power by foreign support and foreign bombs. But today Russia is bogged down in Ukraine and Iranian military infrastructure in Syria (including its proxy Hezbollah) has been decimated by Israeli strikes.
In recent days, Assad, isolated and no doubt panicking, has been frantically calling upon his Gulf allies for support.
By contrast, the rebels, seizing on this moment of weakness, look stronger and more unified than ever before, using new drone weaponry and capturing weapons stores from retreating regime forces who have put up little resistance.
Assad’s vengeance: When, not if
The rapid liberation of territory has given millions of Syrians hope that they may soon return home, and some already are. Syrians were filled with emotion to see videos circulated of prisoners, including many women, liberated from regime prisons. Over 100,000 remain in Assad’s gulag or disappeared.
But Syrians are also fearful. They fear regime reprisals against civilians. The regime and Russia are now bombing hospitals and camps for the displaced in Aleppo and Idlib in retaliation.
Doctors at a hospital in Aleppo appealed for support as they lacked capacity to deal with the influx of injured.
There are reports Iranian-backed Shia militia are entering the country from Iraq to bolster Assad’s forces.
Syrians also fear what may come next. There is no longer an organised democratic opposition inside the country — Assad made sure of that. The militias that are reclaiming territory are diverse in their composition but include authoritarian, extremist and in some cases foreign backed groups. They don’t represent Syrian’s revolutionary aspirations.
The rebels which advanced out of Idlib united under Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS).
HTS is an authoritarian Islamist militia, dominant in northern Syria. It has its roots in Al Qaeda but has significantly moderated in recent years and is a Syrian nationalist, not foreign jihadist, organisation.
It is the de facto local administration in Idlib running institutions, services and humanitarian assistance through the Syrian Salvation Government.
There have been constant wide-spread popular protests against the militia and its leader Mohammed al-Johani for their abuses and authoritarian rule.
Those who wield arms do not represent the aspirations of the majority. Regardless, supporters of the regime repeatedly slander all opposition to Assad as ‘terrorists’ using cut and paste War on Terror, Islamophobic and Zionist narratives to dehumanise them, reduce their diverse struggle to its most authoritarian components and legitimise regime violence against them.
Minority groups in particular are fearful, despite attempts by the alliance to reassure them; issuing statements ensuring the protection of minorities and calling for unity amongst all Syrians.
HTS has even set up a hotline for citizens in Aleppo and Idlib, so they can report any abuses or security incidents.
So far, religious minorities have been unmolested and Christians in Aleppo as well as religious leaders such as Bishop Ephrem Maalouli have issued statements that they are currently safe and prayers continue in churches.
Syrian Kurds, meanwhile, fear the advances of Turkish-backed forces and threats to their hard-won autonomy, especially given concerns over an anticipated American withdrawal leaving them vulnerable and isolated. Already, disturbing videos have circulated showing abuses against Kurdish-led forces.
Turkish-backed groups are unpopular amongst Syrians in general due to corruption, abuses and constant infighting. The Turkish state, once seen as an ally of the revolution, is now viewed with disdain due to its efforts to normalise with Assad and the surge of xenophobic attacks on Syrian refugees in Turkey.
Once again dominant ‘left’ narratives seek to deny Syrians any agency and view all events through a never-changing geo-political lens. Conspiracies circulate of foreign machinations behind recent events.
But foreign states are not interested in the overthrow of the regime, much less in Syrian self-determination.
The US, despite its anti-regime rhetoric, has only given partial support to rebels, enough to pressure Assad to the negotiating table not change the balance of power. US military intervention focused on defeating ISIS, not the regime.
Israel has a useful partner in a regime which, despite its anti-Israel rhetoric, only ever used its weapons to crush domestic opposition (and in many cases Palestinian resistance) rather than liberate Syrian territory from Israeli occupation.
Turkey’s interests focus on crushing Kurdish autonomy and returning refugees. Undoubtably, all of these states will now scramble to influence the course of events, ensuring their interests are protected and any outcome works in their favour.
Syrians are under no illusions; whatever comes after Assad will be a mess. The whole region is engulfed in flames.
But for millions of Syrians nothing can be worse than this genocidal fascist regime which has murdered hundreds of thousands, completely destroyed the country, handed it over to foreign powers, devastated the economy, caused half the population to flee their homes, and which now runs the country as a drugs cartel exporting the amphetamine Captagon.
Should the regime fall, millions of Syrians will be able to return home, allowing civil activism to resume once more. If Assad falls, there is a chance to hope, and hope has been in short supply amongst Syrians.
Leila Al-Shami is co-author of Burning Country: Syrians in Revolution and War and co-founder of From the Periphery media collective.
Warring in Syria: New Phases, Old Lies
A new bloody phase has opened up in Syria, as if it was ever possible to contemplate another one in that tormented land. Silly terms such as “moderate” are being paired with “rebels”, a coupling that can also draw scorn.
What counts as news reporting on the subject in the Western press stable adopts a threadbare approach. We read or hear almost nothing about the dominant backers in this latest round of bloodletting. “With little warning last Wednesday, a coalition of Syrian rebels launched a rapid assault that soon seized Aleppo as well as towns in the nearby Idlib and Hama provinces,” reported NBC News, drawing its material from the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
We are told about the advances of one organisation in particular: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an outgrowth of Jabhat al-Nusra, a former al-Qaeda affiliate. While the urgent reporting stressed the suddenness of it all, HTS has been playing in the jihadi playground since 2017, suggesting that it is far from a neophyte organisation keen to get in on the kill.
From Al Jazeera, we get pulpier detail. HTS is the biggest group in what is dubbed Operation Deterrence of Aggression. HTS itself comprises Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, Liwa al-Haqq, Jabhat Ansar al-Din and Jaysh al-Sunna. That umbrella group is drawn from the Fateh al-Mubin operations centre, which is responsible for overseeing the broader activities of the armed opposition in northwestern Syria under the control of the Syrian Salvation Government (SSG). It is through the offices of SSG that HTS delivers essential goods while running food and welfare programs. Through that governance wing, civil documentation for some 3 million civilians, two-thirds of whom are internally displaced people, has been issued.
The group, headed by Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, himself an al-Qaeda recruit from 2003, then of Jabhat al-Nusra, has done much since its leader fell out with Islamic State and al-Qaeda. For one, HTS has a series of goals. It purports to be an indigenous movement keen on eliminating the Assad regime, establishing Islamic rule and expelling all Iranian militias from Syrian soil. But megalomania among zealots will always out, and al-Jawlani has shown himself a convert to an even broader cause, evidenced by this remark: “with this spirit… we will not only reach Damascus, but, Allah permitting, Jerusalem will be awaiting our arrival”.
All of these measures conform to the same Jihadi fundamentalism that would draw funding from any Western intelligence service, provided they are fighting the appropriate villain of the moment. We should also expect routine beheadings, frequent atrocities and indulgent pillaging. But no, the cognoscenti would have you believe otherwise. We are dealing, supposedly, with a different beast, calmer, wiser, and cashed-up.
For one thing, HTS is said to be largely self-sufficient, exercising a monopoly through its control of the al-Sham Bank and the oil sector through the Watad Company. It has also, in the words of Robin Yassin-Kassab, become a “greatly moderated and better organised reincarnation of Jabhat al-Nusra.” This could hardly cause cheer, but Yassin-Kassab at least admits that the group remains “an authoritarian Islamist militia” though not in the eschatological fanatical mould of its forebears. “It has a much more positive policy towards sectarian and ethnic minorities than ISIS.” Fewer beheadings, perhaps.
A fascinating omission in much commentary on these advances is Turkey’s outsized role. Turkey has been the stalking figure of much of the rebel resistance against the Assad regime, certainly over the last few years. Of late, it has tried, without much purchase, to normalise ties with Assad. In truth, such efforts stretch as far back as late 2022. The topics of concern for Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoĝan are few: dealing with the Kurdish resistance fighters he sorely wishes to liquidate as alleged extensions of the PKK, and the Syrian refugee problem. The Syrian leader has made any rapprochement between the two states contingent on the withdrawal of Turkish forces from Syria.
With Damascus proving icily dismissive, Ankara got irate. Indeed, there is even a suggestion, if one is to believe the assessment by Ömer Özkizilcik of the Atlantic Council, that Turkey was instrumental in initially preventing the rebels from attacking as far back as seven weeks ago.
Much in the latest spray of analysis, along with unfolding events, will require much revisiting and revision. There is the issue of lingering Turkish influence, and whether Erdoĝan’s words will mean much to the charges of HTS as they fatten themselves on the spoils of victory. There is the behaviour of HTS, which is unlikely to remain restrained in a warring environment that seems to treat atrocities as mother’s milk. (Al-Jawlani has not shown himself to be above the targeting and massacring of civilians.) The retaliation from the Syrian government and Russian forces not otherwise deployed against Ukraine also promises to be pitilessly brutal.
Then there are the untold consequences of a Syria free of Assad, a fate longed for by the coarsened righteous in Western circles and emboldened al-Jawlani. This is certainly not off the books, given that both Iran and Russia are preoccupied, respectively, with Israel and Ukraine.
Were the regime, bloodthirsty as it is, to collapse, yet another cataclysmic tide of holy book vengeance is bound to ripple through the region. Never mind: the babble about God and theocracy will be happily supplemented by covert operations and arms sales, all overseen by a wickedly smiling Mammon.
Neocons Try Again in Syria
This originally appeared at Consortium News.
A day after Israel agreed to a ceasefire in Lebanon last week the long dormant war in Syria reignited as jihadist forces seized the city of Aleppo and advanced virtually unhindered in its quest to overthrow the Syrian government until finally meeting resistance from the Syrian Army backed up by Russia. This is the last chance for neocons in the United States to topple Syrian President Bashar al-Assad before Donald Trump, who tried to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria, resumes the presidency in 49 days.
On the neocon list of ways to make the world safer for Israel, Iran originally occupied pride of place. “Real men go to Tehran!” was the muscular brag. But Prime Minister Ariel Sharon was persuaded to acquiesce in a less ambitious plan – to “do Iraq” and remove the “evil dictator” in Baghdad first.
As the invaders/occupiers got bogged down in Iraq, it seemed more sensible to “do Syria” next. With the help of “friendly services,” the neocons mounted a false-flag chemical attack outside Damascus in late August 2013, blaming it on President Bashar al-Assad, whom U.S. President Barack Obama had earlier said, “had to go.”
Obama had called such a chemical attack a red line but, mirabile dictu, chose to honor the U.S. Constitution by asking Congress first. Worse still for the neocons, during the first days of September, Russian President Vladimir Putin pulled Obama’s chestnuts out of the fire by persuading Syria to destroy its chemical weapons under U.N. supervision.
Obama later admitted that virtually all of his advisers had wanted him to order Tomahawk cruise missiles into Syria.
Morose at CNN
I was lucky enough to observe, up-close and personal, the angry reaction of some of Israel’s top American supporters on Sept. 9, 2013, when the Russian-brokered deal for Syria to destroy its chemical weapons was announced.
After doing an interview in Washington on CNN International, I opened the studio door and almost knocked over a small fellow named Paul Wolfowitz, President George W. Bush’s former under-secretary of defense who in 2002-2003 had helped craft the fraudulent case for invading Iraq.
And there standing next to him was former Sen. Joe Lieberman, the Connecticut neocon who was a leading advocate for the Iraq War and pretty much every other potential war in the Middle East.
On the tube earlier, Anderson Cooper sought counsel from Ari Fleischer, former spokesman for Bush, and David Gergen, long-time White House PR guru.
Fleischer and Gergen were alternately downright furious over the Russian initiative to give peace a chance and disconsolate at seeing the prospect for U.S. military involvement in Syria disappear when we were oh so close.
The atmosphere on TV and in the large room was funereal. I had happened on a wake with somberly dressed folks (no loud pastel ties this time) grieving for a recently, dearly-departed war.
In his own interview, Lieberman expressed hope-against-hope that Obama would still commit troops to war without congressional authorization. I thought to myself, wow, here’s a fellow who was a senator for 24 years and almost our vice president, and he does not remember that the Founders gave Congress the sole power to declare war in Article 1, Section 8 of the Constitution.
The evening of Sept. 9 was a bad one for more war and for pundits who like to joke about “giving war a chance.”
Menendez: ‘I Almost Vomited’
The neocons would face another humiliation three days later when The New York Times published an op-ed by Putin, who wrote of growing trust between Russia and the U.S. and between Obama and himself, while warning against the notion that some countries are “exceptional.”
Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ), then chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and an Israeli favorite, spoke for many Washington insiders when he said: “I was at dinner, and I almost wanted to vomit.”
Menendez had just cobbled together and forced through his committee a resolution, 10-to-7, to authorize the president to strike Syria with enough force to degrade Assad’s military. Now, at Obama’s request, the resolution was being shelved.
Cui Bono?
That the various groups trying to overthrow al-Assad had ample incentive to get the U.S. more deeply involved in support of that effort was clear. It was also quite clear that the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had equally powerful incentive to get Washington more deeply engaged in yet another war in the area – then, and now.
NYT reporter Judi Rudoren, writing from Jerusalem had the lead article on Sept. 6, 2013, addressing Israeli motivation in an uncommonly candid way. Her article, “Israel Backs Limited Strike Against Syria,” notes that the Israelis have argued, quietly, that the best outcome for Syria’s at the time two-and-a-half-year-old civil war, at least for the moment, was no outcome.
Rudoren wrote:
“For Jerusalem, the status quo, horrific as it may be from a humanitarian perspective, seems preferable to either a victory by Mr. Assad’s government and his Iranian backers or a strengthening of rebel groups, increasingly dominated by Sunni jihadis.
‘This is a playoff situation in which you need both teams to lose, but at least you don’t want one to win, we’ll settle for a tie,’ said Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli consul general in New York. ‘Let them both bleed, hemorrhage to death: that’s the strategic thinking here. As long as this lingers, there’s no real threat from Syria.’”
US Arming ‘Moderate Rebels’
Instead of Tomahawks, Obama approved (or winked at) covert action to topple Assad. That did not work out very well. An investment of $500 million to train and arm “moderate rebels” yielded only “four or five still in the fight,” as then-CENTCOM commander Gen. Lloyd Austin explained to Congress on Sept. 17, 2015.
In late September 2015 at the U.N., Putin told Obama that Russia is sending its forces into Syria; the two agreed to set U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov off to work out a ceasefire in Syria; they labored hard for 11 months.
A ceasefire agreement was finally reached and approved personally by Obama and Putin. The following list of events beginning in the fall of 2015 is instructive in considering how the revived conflict might work out (probably minus U.S.-Russian talks), if the ongoing jihadi attack on Syrian forces continues for more than a few weeks.
Does 2015 Chronology Foreshadow 2025?
Sept. 28, 2015: At the U.N., Putin tells Obama that Russia will start air strikes in Syria; invites Obama to join Russia in air campaign against ISIS; Obama refuses, but tells Kerry to get together with Lavrov to “deconflict” U.S. and Russian flights over Syria, and then to work hard for a lessening of hostilities and political settlement in Syria – leading to marathon negotiations.
Sept. 30, 2015: Russia starts airstrikes both against ISIS and in support of Syrian forces against rebels in Syria.
Oct. 1, 2015 to Sept. 9, 2016: Kerry and Lavrov labor hard to introduce ceasefire and some kind of political settlement. Finally, a limited ceasefire is signed Sept 9, 2016 – with the explicit blessing of both Obama and Putin.
Sept. 12, 2016: The limited ceasefire goes into effect; provisions include SEPARATING THE “MODERATE” REBELS FROM THE, WELL, “IMMODERATE ONES.” Kerry had earlier claimed that he had “refined” ways to accomplish the separation, but it did not happen; provisions also included safe access for relief for Aleppo.
Sept. 17, 2016: U.S. Air Force bombs fixed Syrian Army positions killing between 64 and 84 Syrian army troops, with about 100 others wounded – evidence enough to convince the Russians that a renegade Pentagon was intent on scuttling the ceasefire and meaningful cooperation with Russia AND FELT FREE TO DO SO AND THEN MERELY SAY OOPS, WITH NO ONE BEING HELD ACCOUNTABLE!
Sept. 26, 2016: Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said:
“My good friend John Kerry … is under fierce criticism from the U.S. military machine. Despite the fact that, as always, [they] made assurances that the U.S. commander in chief, President Barack Obama, supported him in his contacts with Russia (he confirmed that during his meeting with President Vladimir Putin), apparently the military does not really listen to the commander in chief.”
Lavrov went beyond mere rhetoric. He specifically criticized Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Joseph Dunford for telling Congress that he opposed sharing intelligence with Russia, “after the agreements concluded on direct orders of Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Barack Obama stipulated that they would share intelligence… It is difficult to work with such partners…”
Sept. 29, 2016: KERRY’S HUBRIS-TINGED FRUSTRATION: Apparently Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Victoria Nuland, U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Samantha Power, National Security Advisor Susan Rice, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, et al. had told Kerry it would be easy to “align things” in the Middle East.
And so, this is how Kerry started off his remarks at an open forum arranged by The Atlantic magazine and the Aspen Institute on Sept. 29, 2016. (I was there and could hardly believe it; it made me think that some of these stuffed shirts actually believe their own rhetoric about being “indispensable.”) Kerry said:
“Syria is as complicated as anything I have ever done in my public life in the sense that there are probably about six wars going on at the same time: Kurds against Kurds, Kurds against Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Sunni, Shia, everybody against ISIS, people against Assad, Al-Nusra… this is a mixed up sectarian and civil war and strategic and proxies, so it is very difficult to be able to align forces.”
Ultimately, Syrian, Russian and Hezbollah forces beat back the jihadists and liberated Aleppo and other parts of the country in spite of U.S. opposition and are being called upon again now to do the same.
Ray McGovern works with Tell the Word, a publishing arm of the ecumenical Church of the Saviour in inner-city Washington. His 27 years as a C.I.A. analyst included leading the Soviet Foreign Policy Branch and conducting the morning briefings of the President’s Daily Brief. In retirement he co-founded Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS).
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