Betrayal In The Himalayas: Trump’s Sunni Bloc, India’s Isolation, And The Specter Of A New Geopolitics – OpEd
Baisaran Valley, near Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, India.
Photo Credit: Hellohappy, Wikipedia Commons
A Bloodied Silence Echoes from Pahalgam
The dust has barely settled on the blood-soaked soil of Pahalgam, yet a colder realization haunts India’s strategic mindscape: the betrayal is no longer an abstract suspicion but a geopolitical certainty. In the aftermath of the recent terror attacks, the United States—India’s ostensible strategic partner—appears not merely indifferent but complicit in reshaping South Asia’s balance in ways that dangerously expose New Delhi. The question no longer is if India was forsaken—but why—and what this recalibration spells for the future of the region and the world.
The whispers are now louder: that U.S. arms deals with Turkey, particularly the sale of AIM-120C-8 AMRAAMs—long-range air-to-air missiles—may be enabling Pakistan, albeit indirectly. Turkey, a NATO ally, is increasingly enmeshed in defense collaboration with Pakistan. Their joint fighter development initiatives, drone exports, and missile transfers underscore an unmistakable strategic alignment. Could these high-end U.S.-supplied weapons eventually land in Pakistani hangars? The possibility is no longer implausible. For India, such a shift could upend air superiority and embolden a neighbour already steeped in proxy warfare.
America’s Strategic Amnesia: A Double Game in South Asia?
This covert empowerment of Pakistan under a Trump-led foreign policy feels particularly galling. India has often been showcased by Trump as a natural ally in countering China’s rise—a democratic counterbalance, a regional stabilizer. Yet, America’s recent moves betray a dangerous incoherence, or worse, an emerging grand strategy that undermines India’s regional standing.
Is this merely Trump’s trademark trans-nationalism—where arms deals outweigh alliance fidelity—or is there something deeper and more sinister underway? The calculated marginalization of India—paired with the strategic cultivation of Turkey-Pakistan relations—reveals a deeper geopolitical architecture, driven less by democratic values than by sectarian pragmatism and energy-centric alliances.
The Deafening Silence of Allies: A Solitary India Stares Back
As India reeled from Pahalgam and launched Operation Sindoor in retaliation, the world’s silence was as loud as any condemnation. Russia—our historic defense partner—offered only vague appeals for restraint. Israel—whose intelligence and defense ties with India are otherwise celebrated—stood conspicuously mute. And what of the Quad? The much-heralded Indo-Pacific alliance of the U.S., Japan, Australia, and India crumbled under the weight of realpolitik, issuing no robust joint statement, no meaningful strategic support.
This diplomatic vacuum reveals a harsh truth: India may have been overestimating its moral leverage. The world has little patience for sentiment, no matter how righteous the cause. It is here that Modi’s so-called “Gandhigiri diplomacy”—an appeal to shared values and soft power—stands exposed. India’s self-styled ambition as a Vishwaguru—a moral beacon to the world—has met the unblinking indifference of a world increasingly governed by transactional geopolitics.
Trump’s Sunni Bloc: A Sectarian Realignment in the Making?
A more disturbing hypothesis looms: that Donald Trump, whether by design or through the gravitational pull of his allies, is orchestrating the emergence of a Sunni super-bloc to contain Shia Iran. The pieces fit alarmingly well. His first foreign trip was to Riyadh. He pursued historic arms deals with Saudi Arabia, normalized Israel-Gulf relations, and skirted Palestinian justice with no remorse. If this architecture includes Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, and Bangladesh—as some analysts now fear—India is not merely sidelined. It is ostracized.
This emerging coalition, veiled under the rhetoric of counterterrorism and modernization, conceals a deeper sectarian agenda—Sunni ascendancy over Shia Iran. And in this realignment, India—with its nuanced Iran ties, a large Muslim minority, and an insistence on non-alignment—does not fit.
Here, the irony is biting: while India seeks a plural world order rooted in strategic autonomy, it may find itself punished for its moderation. If Trump becomes, metaphorically, the “Mohammad Trump” of a new Sunni geopolitical order, India’s independent posture could be viewed as not neutrality—but obstruction.
The Iran Conundrum: Can India Walk the Tightrope?
India’s ties with Iran are deep and indispensable—ranging from energy security to the strategic Chabahar port project, a counter to China’s Gwadar foothold in Pakistan. Yet, should a Trump-led Sunni bloc emerge, pressure on India to abandon these ties will mount. Compliance risks strategic loss; defiance invites geopolitical isolation. Neither is desirable. But as global alignments harden, India will have little room for equivocation.
Trump’s foreign policy ethos—based on showmanship, sectarian favor, and transactional loyalty—does not easily tolerate nuanced diplomacy. India, the perennial balancer, could become collateral in a global alignment that sees moderation as weakness.
The Strategic Reckoning: India Must Wake Up
Pahalgam delivers a sobering verdict: in the shifting calculus of global power, India stands isolated.. In the ruthless theatre of power politics, there are no friends, only converging interests. The betrayal in the Himalayas must now serve as India’s strategic moment of awakening.
The future demands a radical rethinking of India’s diplomatic doctrine:
From Gandhigiri to Realpolitik: A Fourfold Imperative
First, India must prioritize defense indigenization. Dependence on foreign arms suppliers is a vulnerability. Autonomy in critical technologies—from drones to cyber warfare—must become a national obsession.
Second, alliances must be real, not rhetorical. Partnerships must be transactional too—but on India’s terms. This means pressing Russia for unequivocal solidarity, demanding clarity from Israel, and renegotiating terms with the Quad.
Third, India’s South Asia strategy requires rebooting. From Bangladesh to Nepal, New Delhi must outmanoeuvre Chinese influence not with arrogance, but with strategic empathy and robust economic engagement.
Fourth, India must carefully navigate the Sunni-Shia divide. While abstaining from sectarian alignments, it must secure its energy and strategic interests without appearing passive or pliant.
No More Illusions: Strategic Solitude as Strength
What emerges is a moment of solitude that need not be weakness. For India, this could be the beginning of a more muscular foreign policy—shorn of sentiment, grounded in national interest, and attuned to a multipolar, morally complex world.
The age of Gandhigiri is over. So too, perhaps, the illusion of an Atlanticist safety net. India must now embrace Nehruvian realism, not as nostalgia, but as necessity: a clear-eyed assessment of power, backed by preparation for any eventuality.
Pahalgam was not merely an attack on the soil. It was a strike at the soul of India’s diplomacy. The world turned away. India must now turn inward—and rise.
Debashis Chakrabarti is an international media scholar and social scientist, currently serving as the Editor-in-Chief of the International Journal of Politics and Media. With extensive experience spanning 35 years, he has held key academic positions, including Professor and Dean at Assam University, Silchar. Prior to academia, Chakrabarti excelled as a journalist with The Indian Express. He has conducted impactful research and teaching in renowned universities across the UK, Middle East, and Africa, demonstrating a commitment to advancing media scholarship and fostering global dialogue.
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