"If enacted, this would be the largest transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich in a single law in U.S. history."
Protesters question Republican lawmakers entering a House Energy and Commerce Committee hearing on May 13, 2025 in Washington, D.C.
(Photo: Jemal Countess/Getty Images for Protect Our Care)
Jake Johnson
May 21, 2025
COMMON DREAMS
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said Tuesday that the Republican legislation speeding through the U.S. House of Representatives would cut household resources for the bottom 10% of Americans while delivering gains to the wealthiest in the form of tax breaks.
"If enacted, this would be the largest transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich in a single law in U.S. history," Bobby Kogan, senior director of federal budget policy at the Center for American Progress, said in response to the CBO analysis, which was released shortly before the start of a dead-of-night House Rules Committee hearing on the Republican reconciliation package.
On average, according to the CBO, U.S. households would "see an increase in the resources provided to them by the government over the 2026–2034 period."
But the resources "would not be evenly distributed among households," the CBO found, estimating that "in general, resources would decrease for households in the lowest decile (tenth) of the income distribution, whereas resources would increase for households in the highest decile."
"This is what Republicans are fighting for—lining the pockets of their billionaire donors while children go hungry and families get kicked off their healthcare."
The analysis takes into account an extension of soon-to-expire provisions of the 2017 Trump-GOP tax cuts as well as Republicans' push for around $1 trillion in combined cuts to Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which would primarily harm low-income Americans.
"The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office's unprecedented analysis has confirmed what Democrats have known to be true—the GOP Tax Scam will hurt working families the most while delivering massive tax breaks for billionaires like Elon Musk," said House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), who joined Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.) in requesting the distributional analysis.
"Any claims otherwise are intentionally deceptive regarding the Republican plans to rip healthcare away from nearly 14 million Americans and take food out of the mouths of millions of people, including children and seniors," said Jeffries. "Republicans are attempting to quickly jam this unpopular legislation through the House because they know that the longer they wait, the more will come to light about this cruel and unconscionable bill. For a party that claims to be for the working class, this analysis indicates the opposite."
Boyle, the ranking member of the House Budget Committee, said that "this is what Republicans are fighting for—lining the pockets of their billionaire donors while children go hungry and families get kicked off their healthcare."
"CBO's nonpartisan analysis makes it crystal clear: [President] Donald Trump and House Republicans are selling out the middle class to make the ultra-rich even richer. Every word out of Trump's mouth about helping working Americans was a lie."
The CBO also said Tuesday that the Republican reconciliation package, which Trump has championed, would trigger automatic cuts to Medicare spending—reductions that the nonpartisan body did not factor into its distributional analysis.
The CBO's analysis also did not include the impact of a tentative deal to boost the cap on state and local tax deductions (SALT), a change that would primarily benefit wealthy households.
"This reported SALT deal and accelerated Medicaid cuts would make the bill even more effective at transferring resources from low-income to high-income households," said Brendan Duke of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, referring to GOP hardliners' push for an earlier start date for Medicaid work requirements, which experts have decried as cruel and ineffective.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) arrives at a House Rules Committee meeting on May 21, 2025.
(Photo: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)
'They're Not Just Cutting Medicaid': GOP Bill Would Trigger Over $500 Billion in Medicare Cuts
"This is what Republicans do—pay for massive tax breaks for billionaires by going after programs families rely on the most: Medicaid, food assistance, and now Medicare."
Jake Johnson
May 21, 2025
COMMON DREAMS
The sprawling reconciliation package that House Republicans are rushing through committee would trigger over $500 billion in automatic cuts to Medicare, according to a Congressional Budget Office estimate released late Tuesday.
The CBO analysis, requested by Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.), came just hours before Republicans convened a dead-of-night House Rules Committee hearing on the budget legislation as they scramble to meet their Memorial Day deadline.
If enacted, the Republican bill would add trillions of dollars to the deficit over the next decade by delivering another round of tax cuts skewed to the rich, partially offset by huge cuts to Medicaid and other programs.
According to the CBO, the bill's addition to the deficit would trigger a process known as sequestration under the Statutory Pay‑As‑You‑Go (PAYGO) Act of 2010, a law long reviled by progressives that requires spending cuts equal to legislation's average deficit impact.
Unless lawmakers offset the deficit impact of the Republican bill or agree to waive the PAYGO requirements—which the GOP measure does not do—the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) "would be required to issue a sequestration order not more than 14 days after the end of the current session of Congress (excluding weekends and holidays) to reduce spending by $230 billion in fiscal year 2026," the CBO said.
"The deficit will explode so badly it will trigger automatic cuts, including over half a trillion dollars from Medicare."
Under PAYGO, automatic Medicare cuts are capped at 4%. The CBO estimates that the Republican legislation would trigger roughly $45 billion in Medicare cuts in 2026 and a total of $490 billion in cuts to the program between 2027 and 2034.
"This Republican budget bill is one of the most expensive—and dangerous—bills Congress has seen in decades," said Boyle, the top Democrat on the House Budget Committee. "The nonpartisan CBO makes it clear: The deficit will explode so badly it will trigger automatic cuts, including over half a trillion dollars from Medicare."
"This is what Republicans do—pay for massive tax breaks for billionaires by going after programs families rely on the most: Medicaid, food assistance, and now Medicare," Boyle added. "It's reckless, dishonest, and deeply harmful to the middle class."
Boyle highlighted the CBO's findings during his testimony at the House Rules Committee hearing, which began in the early hours of Wednesday morning.
"This is really the breaking news," Boyle said. "Over the last several months, there's been no discussion of Medicare at all. There has been of Medicaid, but not of Medicare."
"Because of the size of the deficits, because of the PAYGO or Pay-As-You-Go Act, that would trigger sequestration of Medicare, and it would total over $500 billion," Boyle continued. "The official figure that CBO confirms is $535 billion in cuts to Medicare."
Boyle and other Democrats said the looming Medicare cuts amount to a betrayal of President Donald Trump's vow to shield the program—a promise that was included in the GOP's 2024 election platform.
"They're not just cutting Medicaid," said Rep. Teresa Leger Fernández (D-N.M.), referring to the reconciliation bill's roughly $600 billion in proposed cuts to the healthcare program for low-income Americans. "They're cutting Medicare too."
House Budget Committee Democrats wrote on social media that "Trump promised to protect Medicare."
"He lied," they added.
The sprawling reconciliation package that House Republicans are rushing through committee would trigger over $500 billion in automatic cuts to Medicare, according to a Congressional Budget Office estimate released late Tuesday.
The CBO analysis, requested by Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.), came just hours before Republicans convened a dead-of-night House Rules Committee hearing on the budget legislation as they scramble to meet their Memorial Day deadline.
If enacted, the Republican bill would add trillions of dollars to the deficit over the next decade by delivering another round of tax cuts skewed to the rich, partially offset by huge cuts to Medicaid and other programs.
According to the CBO, the bill's addition to the deficit would trigger a process known as sequestration under the Statutory Pay‑As‑You‑Go (PAYGO) Act of 2010, a law long reviled by progressives that requires spending cuts equal to legislation's average deficit impact.
Unless lawmakers offset the deficit impact of the Republican bill or agree to waive the PAYGO requirements—which the GOP measure does not do—the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) "would be required to issue a sequestration order not more than 14 days after the end of the current session of Congress (excluding weekends and holidays) to reduce spending by $230 billion in fiscal year 2026," the CBO said.
"The deficit will explode so badly it will trigger automatic cuts, including over half a trillion dollars from Medicare."
Under PAYGO, automatic Medicare cuts are capped at 4%. The CBO estimates that the Republican legislation would trigger roughly $45 billion in Medicare cuts in 2026 and a total of $490 billion in cuts to the program between 2027 and 2034.
"This Republican budget bill is one of the most expensive—and dangerous—bills Congress has seen in decades," said Boyle, the top Democrat on the House Budget Committee. "The nonpartisan CBO makes it clear: The deficit will explode so badly it will trigger automatic cuts, including over half a trillion dollars from Medicare."
"This is what Republicans do—pay for massive tax breaks for billionaires by going after programs families rely on the most: Medicaid, food assistance, and now Medicare," Boyle added. "It's reckless, dishonest, and deeply harmful to the middle class."
Boyle highlighted the CBO's findings during his testimony at the House Rules Committee hearing, which began in the early hours of Wednesday morning.
"This is really the breaking news," Boyle said. "Over the last several months, there's been no discussion of Medicare at all. There has been of Medicaid, but not of Medicare."
"Because of the size of the deficits, because of the PAYGO or Pay-As-You-Go Act, that would trigger sequestration of Medicare, and it would total over $500 billion," Boyle continued. "The official figure that CBO confirms is $535 billion in cuts to Medicare."
Boyle and other Democrats said the looming Medicare cuts amount to a betrayal of President Donald Trump's vow to shield the program—a promise that was included in the GOP's 2024 election platform.
"They're not just cutting Medicaid," said Rep. Teresa Leger Fernández (D-N.M.), referring to the reconciliation bill's roughly $600 billion in proposed cuts to the healthcare program for low-income Americans. "They're cutting Medicare too."
House Budget Committee Democrats wrote on social media that "Trump promised to protect Medicare."
"He lied," they added.
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