Iran Threatens To Leave Nuclear Treaty and Close Strait of Hormuz
- Iran is considering withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty due to escalating attacks from Israel.
- Threats to close the Strait of Hormuz have emerged, potentially impacting a significant portion of the world's oil supply.
- Experts suggest that while Iran's rhetoric is strong, actual changes in nuclear policy or closing the strait are unlikely in the immediate future.
Amid an escalating Israeli air campaign against Iran, calls are mounting in Tehran to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and close the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil routes.
The archenemies have been trading fire since June 13 after Israel launched an unprecedented attack on Iran’s nuclear sites, military bases, and residential areas in a bid to hinder Tehran’s program and eliminate top military leadership.
Several high-profile Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commanders and nuclear scientists have been killed in the attacks. Iran’s Health Ministry said on June 15 that 224 people, including children, had been killed.
At least 24 people, including civilians, have been killed in Iranian counterstrikes, according to Israeli authorities.
Israel said it launched its attack because it had concluded that Iran was weeks, if not days, away from enriching uranium and acquiring a nuclear weapon. Iran rejects the claim, insisting that its nuclear program is peaceful.
Iran’s parliament is moving forward with a bill to withdraw from the NPT, Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baqaei announced on June 16. Iranian officials are also threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz if the attacks continue.
But experts warn Tehran’s threats may be more about political theater than imminent change.
NPT Withdrawal: More Bark Than Bite?
Hard-line Iranian lawmaker Hamid Rasaee over the weekend charged that there was no point in remaining in the NPT since it had failed to protect Iran’s nuclear sites from attacks.
Fellow hard-line legislator Mohammad Mannan weighed in, announcing that a high-priority bill would be submitted to the parliament to push ahead with the withdrawal.
Despite the heated rhetoric in Tehran, experts say Iran is unlikely to actually leave the treaty anytime soon.
“For now, Iran appears unlikely to withdraw from the NPT, despite growing pressure from hard-liners,” Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told RFE/RL.
Even if the parliament passes the bill, it needs to be approved by the Guardians Council, Iran’s constitutional watchdog whose members are -- directly and indirectly -- appointed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country’s commander in chief who has the final say on all state matters.
Azizi argued that withdrawing from the NPT would effectively gut Iran’s legal defense.
“Tehran has so far based its defense at the international level on the assertion that Israel’s actions are unlawful, citing the absence of an imminent threat. Exiting the NPT would undermine this line entirely.”
In 2010, Khamenei issued a fatwa -- a religious ruling -- declaring the use of nuclear weapons as "haram," or forbidden under Islamic law, and stating that Iran would not pursue them
Iranian officials have frequently pointed to this decree as proof that the Islamic republic has no intention of developing nuclear weapons.
However, analysts argue that the fatwa does not present a serious obstacle to Iran acquiring a bomb. They note that Iran could carry out much of the necessary work while the fatwa remains in place, and Khamenei could simply revoke it at a later stage if a decision were made to move forward.
Baqaei said on June 16 that, despite legislative efforts to initiate Iran's withdrawal from the NPT, Tehran is not looking to acquire nuclear weapons.
Strait Of Hormuz: High Stakes, Low Odds
Hard-line media and several officials have again raised the possibility of closing the Strait of Hormuz -- a move that would threaten nearly a fifth of the world’s oil supply. But Gregory Brew, a senior Iran and oil analyst at the New York-based Eurasia Group, says it’s a threat Tehran is unlikely to carry out.
“Closing the strait is Iran's last big card to play,” Brew told RFE/RL. “It has the means of essentially blockading the waterway…by deploying short-range ballistic missiles, naval vessels, and mines.”
But attempting to blockade the strategic strait would have major ramifications, such as “immediately” triggering a response from the United States and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).
“If war with Israel is proving very damaging, war with the US (and the GCC) would be much worse,” Brew said.
Economically, closing the Strait of Hormuz would also hurt Iran itself because it is using the waterway to export oil, mostly to China.
“So long as that continues, I don't think it will act on its threats,” Brew added.
By RFE/RL
Iranian Navy Leaves Bandar Abbas in a Hurry
A number of the resident naval ships which steadfastly remained in harbor over the first two days of the conflict between Israel and Iran have been seen maneuvering and taking up positions in the Bandar Abbas roads.
A satellite pass over the Bandar Abbas Naval Harbor early on June 14 appears to have captured a picture of regular Iranian Navy (Nedaja) vessels from the Southern Fleet - which are home-based there - leaving in what appears to be confusion. A large number of vessels are leaving port simultaneously, and it appears from the wake of ships underway as if there was some competition to get to the harbor entrance first.
With the imagery resolution available publicly on June 14, it is possible to identify some vessels in the anchorage. Two Hengam-Class landing ships can be seen already at anchor (image at top), presumably the two vessels which are currently operational, namely IRINS Tonb (L513) and Lavan (L514). Both a Moudge-Class and an Alvand-Class frigate are close by, neither yet anchored, as is the intelligence collection frigate IRINS Zagros (H313). The forward base ship IRINS Makran (K441) has left the outer harbor and its home pier, to which it appeared to have been welded for months.
In imagery from early on June 16, ships previously seen maneuvering two days before seem now settled at anchor in the Bandar Abbas roads. The drone carrier Shahid Bagheri (C110-4) from the IRGC Navy (Nedsa) can be seen at 27.06029546N 56.12818203E. Its sister ship Shahid Madhavi (C110-3) appears to be close by, also probably the Nedaja’s IRINS Makran now at 27.088804 56.302067. The only Nedaja vessels which can be seen still at the dockside in the Naval Harbor are those which have previously been identified as being under repair or maintenance, along with some fast attack craft.
As a dispersal strategy to protect against attack, moving ships out of home base ports to the immediately adjacent anchorage does not make much tactical sense. Some ships still linger, but it can be expected that most ships spotted early on the morning of June 14 will by now be on the move to new locations.
The opinions expressed herein are the author's and not necessarily those of The Maritime Executive.
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