The Art of Command
How Uganda’s General Muhoozi is adopting the Donald Trump approach to power
Author
Kayondo Birungi Eric
Analysis | 07/29/2025
Political Parties / Election Analyses - East Africa
General Muhoozi Kainerugaba attends a “thanksgiving” ceremony in Entebbe, Uganda,
Photo: picture alliance / ASSOCIATED PRESS | Hajarah Nalwadda
Despite their vastly different worlds, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, son of long-serving Uganda President Yoweri Museveni, and US President Donald Trump appear to share the same political playbook. The striking similarities in political style defined by hypernationalism, confrontational rhetoric, and militarized political identities are fast defining Uganda’s political future as a military dynasty. General Muhoozi’s military career is deeply entangled with political speculation and aspiration and, more recently, his public engagement particularly on social media hints at a future shot at the presidency.
Kayondo Birungi Eric is a political commentator based in Kampala, Uganda.
With the 2026 general elections only a few months away, General Muhoozi’s Trump-like approach is increasingly blurring the line between the military and public discourse. Though not specifically coining the “Uganda First” mantra, his public statements frequently emphasize Uganda’s sovereignty, military prowess, and national unity. General Muhoozi is using a populist approach as a means of dominating public discourse, silencing critics of the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) party and more importantly extending his father’s legacy.
The Erosion of Democratic Norms
Uganda has a troubled political history, placing the army at the leadership of political power since its independence in 1962. As President Museveni and the ruling NRM mark 40 years in power, the military is progressively serving as a model for the functioning of other state institutions and ideology. Since 1986, Uganda under President Museveni has moved away from its status as post-conflict nation with early promises of democratic expansion. While regular elections have been held since 1994, the political space has systematically narrowed, characterized by widespread human rights abuses, suppression of dissent, and a highly militarized political landscape. There has been a fusion between the state, the NRM, and more recently, the political fortunes of the first family. President Museveni has systematically built a system where the military is the ultimate guarantor of his regime. The government has framed militarization as a necessary response to the complex threats the country faces, and the question remains whether this approach will ultimately provide stability or become a source of greater fragility.
Uganda’s civil society’s failures in terms of political mobilization are in significant part due to the brutal constraints imposed upon it.
At the heart of Uganda’s militarization transformation is General Muhoozi, also the Chief of the Ugandan Defence Forces, a powerful figure with a loyal following within the armed forces. His political ambitions became clear in 2023 when he launched the Uganda Patriotic League (PLU), a political outfit with an opaque but ambitious programme cantered on national unity, development, and security. General Muhoozi’s frequent social media outbursts, threatening of critics, and even going so far as to declare himself next in line for president have further cemented his role as Uganda’s most powerful political outsider. He has used his unrivalled position to undermine state institutions, recently snubbing a parliamentary summons over his behaviour and attacking the Uganda Human Rights Commission over demands to produce abducted persons in courts of law.
Given General Muhoozi’s high-ranking military position and familial ties to the presidency, such statements align with the longstanding allegations of state-sponsored repression including kidnappings, illegal detentions, and torture of dissidents. The recent passing of the Uganda People’s Defence Forces (Amendment) Bill allows for civilians to be tried under military tribunals despite being struck down by the Uganda Supreme Court in 2024. The current state of affairs effectively normalizes political violence and impunity and suggests that the security forces are now weaponized against citizens. Furthermore, sections within the military and General Muhoozi’s supporters are increasing their nationalist rhetoric, an indication of a dangerously regressing political culture.
His rapid ascent within the military has fuelled speculation that Museveni is grooming him for power, a move that would formalize militarized dynastic rule. The behaviour of the security forces now points to a deeper crisis, blurring the lines between state and military authority. Uganda’s militarization under the NRM regime did not begin with General Muhoozi but has accelerated under his new influence within the army. Over the past decade, military officers have held key civilian positions from Foreign Service, ministerial positions and government parastatals. The UPDF, once portrayed as a professional institution, is currently intertwined with President Museveni’s political survival strategy. It is now common to find serving military officers monitoring opposition figures, enforcing controversial policies and openly endorsing General Muhoozi’s political ascent. His supporters argue that his leadership would ensure a smooth transfer of power, but critics warn of a scenario where the military is the ultimate arbiter of power under a civilian guise.
Splintered Political Opposition
Despite a resurgence of political activism in the last 15 years, increasing state brutality, a prolonged incumbency, continued suppression of civic space, and internal dynamics have fostered uncertain political environment for the opposition. In response, Uganda is witnessing a proliferation of new political formations and strategic repositioning of old formations. The Democratic Alliance (DA), a breakaway from the National Unity Platform, the People’s Front for Freedom (PFF), a splinter group from the Forum of Democratic Change, and a flurry other outfits have registered with the Electoral Commission within the last 12 months. The NRM has also been strategic in co-opting more established political parties, which has further weakened the opposition’s cohesion. Meanwhile, President Museveni signed a cooperation agreement with Democratic Party and has appointed members of the Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) to his government.
This direction points to a desperate process of internal restructuring and attempts to revitalize political engagement ahead of the 2026 general elections. However, while these new formations could be interpreted as a healthy sign of democratic evolution, they also raise concerns about further fragmentation of the opposition vote and resources. In an environment where the NRM benefits from a divided opposition, the proliferation of smaller parties might inadvertently weaken the collective ability to challenge President Museveni’s regime effectively.
At the same time, Uganda’s civil society is operating in a challenging landscape. Its failures in terms of political mobilization are in significant part due to the brutal constraints imposed upon it. These persistent failures in protecting civic space, ensuring accountability, and building a cohesive resistance are also further entrenching an expanding authoritarian state.
Despite the political hurdles, the potential for mobilization especially among the youth remains strong, underscoring the resilience of the fight for regime change.
The coming months will be critical. With general elections scheduled for early 2026, Museveni — now 81 — is seeking to extend his 39-year rule. However, the lack of electoral reform, along with restrictions on political parties and civil society remains a hurdle. In a broader context, the militarization of the political landscape has reversed earlier gains made in terms of democratic governance and pluralism. While the 1995 constitution was a democratic milestone, subsequent amendments like the removal of presidential term limits in 2005 and age limits in 2017 have allowed Museveni to seek re-election indefinitely. For ordinary Ugandans, the cost is already clear: democratic space is shrinking, the fear of speaking out is heightened, and the normalization of military rule proceeds apace.
Despite the political hurdles, the potential for mobilization especially among the youth remains strong, underscoring the resilience of the fight for regime change. Whether these aspirations can materialize in the face of an increasingly militarized state will be a defining question for the next election and beyond.
The lead up to the 2026 elections demonstrates how the current militarization strategy is dissolving the foundational boundaries between the Ugandan state and the Museveni regime. This evolving military dynasty most likely to be inherited by General Muhoozi is subverting constitutional order, replacing democratic contestation with coercion, and reproducing militarized order within state institutions. Unless domestic resistance coalesces with similar vigour as witnessed in the past, the 2026 elections will likely cement Uganda’s descent into a military-bureaucratic autocracy — unfortunately for Uganda, a repeat of a sad history.
Despite their vastly different worlds, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, son of long-serving Uganda President Yoweri Museveni, and US President Donald Trump appear to share the same political playbook. The striking similarities in political style defined by hypernationalism, confrontational rhetoric, and militarized political identities are fast defining Uganda’s political future as a military dynasty. General Muhoozi’s military career is deeply entangled with political speculation and aspiration and, more recently, his public engagement particularly on social media hints at a future shot at the presidency.
Kayondo Birungi Eric is a political commentator based in Kampala, Uganda.
With the 2026 general elections only a few months away, General Muhoozi’s Trump-like approach is increasingly blurring the line between the military and public discourse. Though not specifically coining the “Uganda First” mantra, his public statements frequently emphasize Uganda’s sovereignty, military prowess, and national unity. General Muhoozi is using a populist approach as a means of dominating public discourse, silencing critics of the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) party and more importantly extending his father’s legacy.
The Erosion of Democratic Norms
Uganda has a troubled political history, placing the army at the leadership of political power since its independence in 1962. As President Museveni and the ruling NRM mark 40 years in power, the military is progressively serving as a model for the functioning of other state institutions and ideology. Since 1986, Uganda under President Museveni has moved away from its status as post-conflict nation with early promises of democratic expansion. While regular elections have been held since 1994, the political space has systematically narrowed, characterized by widespread human rights abuses, suppression of dissent, and a highly militarized political landscape. There has been a fusion between the state, the NRM, and more recently, the political fortunes of the first family. President Museveni has systematically built a system where the military is the ultimate guarantor of his regime. The government has framed militarization as a necessary response to the complex threats the country faces, and the question remains whether this approach will ultimately provide stability or become a source of greater fragility.
Uganda’s civil society’s failures in terms of political mobilization are in significant part due to the brutal constraints imposed upon it.
At the heart of Uganda’s militarization transformation is General Muhoozi, also the Chief of the Ugandan Defence Forces, a powerful figure with a loyal following within the armed forces. His political ambitions became clear in 2023 when he launched the Uganda Patriotic League (PLU), a political outfit with an opaque but ambitious programme cantered on national unity, development, and security. General Muhoozi’s frequent social media outbursts, threatening of critics, and even going so far as to declare himself next in line for president have further cemented his role as Uganda’s most powerful political outsider. He has used his unrivalled position to undermine state institutions, recently snubbing a parliamentary summons over his behaviour and attacking the Uganda Human Rights Commission over demands to produce abducted persons in courts of law.
Given General Muhoozi’s high-ranking military position and familial ties to the presidency, such statements align with the longstanding allegations of state-sponsored repression including kidnappings, illegal detentions, and torture of dissidents. The recent passing of the Uganda People’s Defence Forces (Amendment) Bill allows for civilians to be tried under military tribunals despite being struck down by the Uganda Supreme Court in 2024. The current state of affairs effectively normalizes political violence and impunity and suggests that the security forces are now weaponized against citizens. Furthermore, sections within the military and General Muhoozi’s supporters are increasing their nationalist rhetoric, an indication of a dangerously regressing political culture.
His rapid ascent within the military has fuelled speculation that Museveni is grooming him for power, a move that would formalize militarized dynastic rule. The behaviour of the security forces now points to a deeper crisis, blurring the lines between state and military authority. Uganda’s militarization under the NRM regime did not begin with General Muhoozi but has accelerated under his new influence within the army. Over the past decade, military officers have held key civilian positions from Foreign Service, ministerial positions and government parastatals. The UPDF, once portrayed as a professional institution, is currently intertwined with President Museveni’s political survival strategy. It is now common to find serving military officers monitoring opposition figures, enforcing controversial policies and openly endorsing General Muhoozi’s political ascent. His supporters argue that his leadership would ensure a smooth transfer of power, but critics warn of a scenario where the military is the ultimate arbiter of power under a civilian guise.
Splintered Political Opposition
Despite a resurgence of political activism in the last 15 years, increasing state brutality, a prolonged incumbency, continued suppression of civic space, and internal dynamics have fostered uncertain political environment for the opposition. In response, Uganda is witnessing a proliferation of new political formations and strategic repositioning of old formations. The Democratic Alliance (DA), a breakaway from the National Unity Platform, the People’s Front for Freedom (PFF), a splinter group from the Forum of Democratic Change, and a flurry other outfits have registered with the Electoral Commission within the last 12 months. The NRM has also been strategic in co-opting more established political parties, which has further weakened the opposition’s cohesion. Meanwhile, President Museveni signed a cooperation agreement with Democratic Party and has appointed members of the Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) to his government.
This direction points to a desperate process of internal restructuring and attempts to revitalize political engagement ahead of the 2026 general elections. However, while these new formations could be interpreted as a healthy sign of democratic evolution, they also raise concerns about further fragmentation of the opposition vote and resources. In an environment where the NRM benefits from a divided opposition, the proliferation of smaller parties might inadvertently weaken the collective ability to challenge President Museveni’s regime effectively.
At the same time, Uganda’s civil society is operating in a challenging landscape. Its failures in terms of political mobilization are in significant part due to the brutal constraints imposed upon it. These persistent failures in protecting civic space, ensuring accountability, and building a cohesive resistance are also further entrenching an expanding authoritarian state.
Despite the political hurdles, the potential for mobilization especially among the youth remains strong, underscoring the resilience of the fight for regime change.
The coming months will be critical. With general elections scheduled for early 2026, Museveni — now 81 — is seeking to extend his 39-year rule. However, the lack of electoral reform, along with restrictions on political parties and civil society remains a hurdle. In a broader context, the militarization of the political landscape has reversed earlier gains made in terms of democratic governance and pluralism. While the 1995 constitution was a democratic milestone, subsequent amendments like the removal of presidential term limits in 2005 and age limits in 2017 have allowed Museveni to seek re-election indefinitely. For ordinary Ugandans, the cost is already clear: democratic space is shrinking, the fear of speaking out is heightened, and the normalization of military rule proceeds apace.
Despite the political hurdles, the potential for mobilization especially among the youth remains strong, underscoring the resilience of the fight for regime change. Whether these aspirations can materialize in the face of an increasingly militarized state will be a defining question for the next election and beyond.
The lead up to the 2026 elections demonstrates how the current militarization strategy is dissolving the foundational boundaries between the Ugandan state and the Museveni regime. This evolving military dynasty most likely to be inherited by General Muhoozi is subverting constitutional order, replacing democratic contestation with coercion, and reproducing militarized order within state institutions. Unless domestic resistance coalesces with similar vigour as witnessed in the past, the 2026 elections will likely cement Uganda’s descent into a military-bureaucratic autocracy — unfortunately for Uganda, a repeat of a sad history.
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