Underwater volcano off Oregon coast could erupt by the end of the year, researchers say, but nothing ‘looks imminent’

When it does erupt, it likely won’t pose a threat to human life.

Kate Murphy, Reporter
Thu, August 21, 2025 


Underwater volcano Axial Seamount. (National Science Foundation)

An underwater volcano off the coast of Oregon that was forecast to erupt sometime this year doesn’t look imminent, according to volcanologists who are closely monitoring it.

The Axial Seamount is located about 300 miles off the coast of Oregon in the Pacific Ocean, and it’s 4,900 feet below the surface of the sea along the Juan de Fuca Ridge. For comparison, its depth is about two-and-a-half times the height of One World Trade Center in New York City, which is 1,776 feet, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

It’s the most active submarine volcano in the northeast Pacific. In the last 30 years that it’s been monitored, three eruptions have occurred: in 1998, 2011 and 2015, according to researchers Bill Chadwick at Oregon State University and Scott Nooner at the University of North Carolina at Wilmington.

“Our forecast of an eruption at Axial Seamount by the end of the year still stands, but I have to say nothing looks imminent,” Chadwick told KOIN on Wednesday. Yahoo contacted Chadwick for an updated confirmation of this assessment and is awaiting a response.

Here’s what else to know about the underwater volcano.
Does the underwater volcanic eruption pose a serious threat?

No. Due to the Axial Seamount’s great depth underwater, combined with its relatively gentle lava flow style, it doesn’t pose a threat to human life, ocean travel or property, the U.S. Geological Survey says.

“For the size of eruptions we’ve seen in the last 20 years … if you were on top of it on a boat, you would never know it,” Chadwick previously told local media.

However, the next eruption will help researchers better understand and forecast how volcanoes erupt on land.

Why is it forecast to erupt this year?

Inflation in an underwater volcano happens when magma accumulates below the sea floor and pushes the surface of the volcano upward, Chadwick explained at a 2024 seminar. One of the signs that an eruption of Axial Seamount might happen this year is that the volcano reached the same inflation levels from when it erupted in 2015, back in January.

But as of July, “the rate of inflation has been slowly decreasing all year,” Chadwick wrote in a blog on the OSU website that details the eruption forecast.

Researchers also monitor seismic activity near the volcano through instruments and cables that extend from the U.S. coast. In June, there were more than 2,000 earthquakes recorded near Axial Seamount in a single day, which is a sign that an eruption could be imminent.

A new benchmark deployed at the base of the western caldera wall of the Axial Seamount volcano. (NOAA)

Additionally, in July, the tsunami wave from the 8.8 magnitude earthquake near Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula "triggered the automated alerts we have in place to notify us when an eruption might be starting,” even though it wasn’t actually an eruption, according to Chadwick’s blog post.

“We can only wait and see, but nothing seems imminent at the moment since the rate of unrest keeps wavering up and down, up and down,” Chadwick writes. “Of course, we don’t really know what it will take to trigger the next eruption and exactly when that will happen. But hopefully we’ll learn more about that triggering process by the monitoring we are doing now.”

Scientists play a waiting game with a giant volcano off the West Coast

N'dea Yancey-Bragg and Elizabeth Weise, 

USA TODAY
Wed, August 20, 2025



Scientists play a waiting game with a giant volcano off the West Coast

Hundreds of miles off the coast of Oregon, Deb Kelley watched a pod of dolphins swim past the research vessel Atlantis as the sun set on the Pacific Ocean.

But beneath the calm seas lurked a behemoth: Axial Seamount, a massive volcano 4,500 feet below the ocean’s surface. Kelley and her team are in the middle of a maintanence mission, working nearly 24 hours a day for weeks to recover and restore the instruments that keep tabs on the volcano, which scientists believe will erupt in 2025.

Kelley, director of the Regional Cabled Array, is not so sure.

USA TODAY reported on the volcano in May, and not much has changed since then, other than a slight decline in some of the prescursors to eruption. Researchers say they still don't know what it will take to trigger the next eruption or exactly when it will happen.

"We can only wait and see, but nothing seems imminent at the moment since the rate of unrest keeps wavering up and down, up and down," Bill Chadwick, a volcanologist with Oregon State University who’s part of a team that’s studying the volcano, wrote in a July 30 blog post.

What's happening with Axial Seamount? 'Not much'

A reservoir has been refilling with magma since its last eruption in 2015, gradually inflating and causing the volcano to rise. Eventually, the pressure will become so great that it will open up and lava will pour out.

Kelley said there have been some indications that an eruption is coming, like submarine hydrothermal vents beginning to boil. The hot water is attracting sea life that prefer warm, nutrient-rich waters.

But "not much" has been happening with the volcano lately, Chadwick wrote.

The rate of inflation has been slowly decreasing all year. There was a brief spike in seismic activity - including one day in June with over 2,000 earthquakes - but that has dwindled to an average of 100 per day.

"All those indications from previously was that it would erupt, but those have all slowed down now," Kelley said.

What happens when the volcano erupts?

When the volcano erupts, it will spew enormous amounts of lava into the ocean for days or even months.

Kelley said the lava flow could potentially cause tens of thousands of explosions and billions of microbes will stream out onto the sea floor like flakes from a snowblower.

But Axial Seamount is not a threat to humans. It won't trigger a tsunami or earthquakes on land, and even a person in a boat directly above it likely wouldn't notice, Chadwick previously said.

But it will provide researchers a virtually unprecedented opportunity to watch what happens when the lava flows.

"We're never there in the right place, in the right time to know that's happening," Kelley said. "So this is a phenomenal opportunity to gain a lot of insights about major processes operating on our planet."

Research facing Trump cuts

Axial is the world’s most extensively studied undersea volcano because more than 660 miles of undersea cables crisscross it, sending a steady stream of real-time data about the area to scientists. The Regional Cabled Array includes more than 140 instruments that are constantly monitoring it.

The work is part of a larger ocean monitoring effort by the Ocean Observatories Initiative, which maintains more than 900 ocean-based instruments to address critical questions about the world's oceans, funded by the National Science Foundation.

But that work may now be under threat. The National Science Foundation's budget for fiscal year 2026 proposed slashing the initiative's budget by 80% in its tenth year, the organization said in June.

Kelley said its not yet clear how the cuts will affect her projects, but she hopes to be back out on the waters above Axial next summer.

"We don't know how that what the cuts will be, what the budget will be, and how that funnels down to us yet," Kelley said. "So we have hope. I always have hope, it's just in my nature to do so."

One of the world's most active volcanoes in this US state is about to erupt again

JULIA JACOBO
Wed, August 20, 2025 

One of the most active volcanoes in the world is living up to its reputation as it gears up for another eruption.

An eruption at Hawaii's Kilauea volcano is imminent, based on current activity, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Lava fountains -- jets of lava that are sprayed into the air during an eruption -- are expected to begin flowing between Wednesday and Saturday.

MORE: Eruption at Hawaii's Kilauea volcano sends lava shooting 1,000 feet in air


Kilauea began to show signs of eruption on Monday, when deflation was recorded on two tiltmeters, instruments used to measure the tilting or rotation of a structure or the ground surface, according to the USGS.

M. Patrick/USGS - PHOTO: On Aug. 18, 2025, two USGS scientists and two researchers from the University of Colorado hiked to an overview of the north vent in Halemaʻumaʻu crater at Kīlauea volcano to confirm if lava was moving up inside the vent.More

Continued tremors and what's known as "glow" at Kilauea indicate that magma remains relatively high in the north vent of the volcano, according to the USGS. In addition, "elevated degassing continues from the vent."

"The onset and persistence of glow suggest that magma is close to the surface," the USGS said in its latest update.

MORE: Kilauea, active Hawaiian volcano, could erupt like a 'stomp-rocket toy,' new study suggests

The current volcano alert level is at "Watch" or "Orange" level, indicating heightened or escalating unrest and an increased potential for eruption, according to the USGS.

Once the eruption begins, it will be the 31st time Kilauea has erupted since December. In some of the eruptions, lava was seen shooting up to 1,000 feet from the volcano's vent.

USGS - PHOTO: This close-up view of the Kīlauea summit eruption's north vent was captured during an uncrewed aircraft system (UAS) overflight conducted by Hawaiian Volcano Observatory scientists on Aug. 18, 2025.More

Magma has been using the same pathway to gather in a chamber under the Halemaumau Crater since Dec. 23, making the eruptions "intermittently active" within the crater, according to the USGS.

The last eruption ended on Aug. 6 after 12 hours of continuous fountaining, according to the USGS. Lava fountains reached up to 165 feet and covered 80% of the crater floor.

The eruption was characterized by episodic lava fountaining not seen since the 1980s, according to the USGS.

Kilauea has erupted dozens of times since 1952. Eruptive activity was nearly continuous along the volcano's East Rift Zone between 1983 and 2018.

H. Weiss-Racine/USGS - PHOTO: On August 18, the goal field observations confirmed that lava was moving up inside the vent. While perched lava was not observed, lava spatter was visible intermittently during gas pistoning events.More

High levels of volcanic gas -- including water vapor, carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide -- is a major hazard of concern.

Strands of volcanic glass known as "Pele's hair", are present throughout the summit area of Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park and can spread by wind, even after fountaining has ended, according to the USGS.

Kilauea's caldera rim surrounding the Halemaʻumaʻu crater has been closed to the public since 2007 due to such hazards.