Southeast Asia’s Onshore Wind Market Set for Fourfold Growth by 2030
- Onshore wind capacity in Southeast Asia is forecast to rise from 6.5 GW in 2024 to 26 GW by 2030, led by Vietnam, the Philippines, and Thailand.
- Auctions, attractive feed-in tariffs, and cheaper Chinese turbines are fueling expansion, alongside demand from energy-intensive industries like data centers.
- Policy inconsistency, grid bottlenecks, and payment disputes - particularly in Vietnam - threaten investor confidence and long-term stability.
The onshore wind sector has historically witnessed mild growth in Southeast Asia (SEA) since the start of the decade due to a combination of regulatory hurdles, weak grid infrastructure, high costs associated with developing local supply chains, and persistent reliance on cheaper fossil fuels like coal, which are perceived as more stable. However, this could change, with Rystad Energy’s analysis projecting onshore wind capacity in SEA to climb from 6.5 gigawatts (GW) in 2024 to 26 GW by 2030, an increase of 19.5 GW. This resurgence is fueled by a combination of short-term policy initiatives such as auctions, project awards and attractive feed-in tariffs (FITs) alongside the rising acceptance of mainland Chinese wind turbines.
This acceleration in onshore wind installations comes at a crucial time, as countries across the region aim to expand renewable energy adoption and advance their energy transition. Government policies are further boosting momentum, with several new regulations introduced this year to support development. With more mature technology, falling equipment costs and improved performance even at lower wind speeds, onshore wind is increasingly a competitive option for meeting renewable energy targets. An additional consideration is leveraging these projects to power data centers, as onshore wind can offer a favorable generation profile for many 24/7 applications, further enhancing their value.
Raksit Pattanapitoon, Lead Renewables & Power Analyst, APAC, Rystad Energy
Though far outpacing the 1.1 GW addition seen in SEA between 2021 and 2024, a closer look identifies some new trends, with Vietnam continuing to be the largest market despite policy-driven fluctuations, and the Philippines and Thailand following closely behind. Meanwhile, Laos is turning to onshore wind energy for the first time to diversify its power mix and enhance export capacity, following the commissioning of Southeast Asia’s largest wind project in August, built solely with the purpose of exporting power to Vietnam.
Despite recent momentum, Southeast Asia stands to make significant gains by learning from previous boom-and-bust policy cycles. Unlike solar, which benefits from a relatively simple and modular supply chain, wind power projects demand more complex logistics, infrastructure and technical expertise – necessitating time for ecosystem development and a steady project pipeline for sustained growth.
Countries such as Laos, Cambodia and potentially Indonesia have an opportunity to learn from the experiences of Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines. In these markets, a rapid rollout of initial projects (about 4 GW in Vietnam, 1.5 GW in Thailand and 400 MW in the Philippines) within a short timeframe was followed by a prolonged project drought due to a lack of policy continuity, resulting in no new construction in Vietnam since 2021, in Thailand since 2019, and in the Philippines since 2015.
Additionally, recent payment disputes in Vietnam between state utility Vietnam Electricity (EVN) and wind project developers have further undermined investor confidence. Most of these challenges stem from proposals to retroactively reduce Feed-in-tariff (FIT) rates for operational projects by imposing new acceptance requirements. This further compounded grid curtailment issues affecting both solar and wind projects that came online during the boom years between 2018 and 2021.
While Southeast Asia’s onshore wind sector is poised for rapid expansion, its long-term success will hinge on consistent policies, stronger grid integration, and establishing local supply chains. Continued government support and collaboration within the industry are crucial to building a resilient wind market and ensuring wind energy becomes a key pillar of the region’s renewable transition.
Dept. of Justice Tells Court BOEM Will Review Atlantic Shores COP Approval
The Department of Justice told a federal district court that it plans to review and likely change the approval of the Construction and Operation Plan for New Jersey’s Atlantic Shores South offshore wind farm. While the project has largely been abandoned for months, the move is symbolic because it was where candidate Donald Trump, during a 2024 campaign stop, vowed to bring an end to the offshore wind energy sector.
The filing, which was made on September 27, is similar to others the Department of Justice has made as part of pending lawsuits against wind farm projects from Massachusetts to Maryland. In each of the cases, DOJ has asked the court to stay the pending litigation brought by local activist groups, saying it was “potentially needless or wasteful litigation.” The Department of the Interior and its Bureau of Ocean Energy Management are involved in the cases as the local opposition repeatedly challenges the approvals given to the projects.
The Atlantic Shores South project, which would consist of two large offshore wind farms, received its final approval from BOEM in October 2024 for a project that would have been off the southern New Jersey coast. It called for 197 turbines that would have been at least 8.7 miles from Long Beach Island as part of a project to provide 2.8 GW of energy to the state.
The project was a joint venture between Shell and EDF Renewables. Despite having gained all its necessary federal approvals, it, however, had yet to gain a power agreement with the state’s utilities. The project had been entered into New Jersey’s fourth round solicitation, but the state ended the round in February without selecting projects.
Trump singled out the project on the campaign trail, and shortly after returning to office, his Environmental Protection Agency challenged an air quality permit granted for the construction of the project. By June, the project told the state it was no longer economical, although EDF had said it planned to pursue the project, while Shell announced it was backing away from the office wind energy sector.
The opponents had lost earlier court challenges but renewed their fight in a case filed in July. DOJ, in its filing to the court last week, said the plan was for BOEM to reconsider the permitting for the project.
The filing states, “At the conclusion of BOEM’s reconsideration proceedings, BOEM will likely make a new agency action, and that action may affect—and potentially moot—plaintiffs’ claims.”
Earlier, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum had said the government was reviewing five offshore wind projects, inferring that each would be canceled. While the departments have filed motions to stay the local cases for the projects, the administration, however, suffered a setback in its efforts to challenge Ørsted’s Revolution Wind project. A court barred the government’s efforts to enforce a stop work order on the project, which is 80 percent installed. The Danish company has reported that work resumed while the court cases proceed. The company has also said it was in discussions with the government to resolve the concerns over the project.
Bloomberg reported that BOEM today, October 1, also filed with another federal district court announcing that it will also be reviewing the COP approval for Empire Wind 2, a second project planned by Empire Wind off the coast of New Jersey. The company is working on its phase 1 project after a stop work order in the spring, but it has said that phase 2 was unlikely to proceed at this time because of the changed regulatory environment.
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