Analysis
In a series of escalating statements, Russia’s foreign intelligence service has accused Western countries of plotting “false flag” operations to discredit Moscow. While the claims lack evidence, analysts warn they may reflect something more serious: an intensifying hybrid warfare strategy – and signs that the Kremlin is preparing the narrative ahead of a potential conflict with NATO.
Issued on: 08/10/2025
FRANCE24
By: Sébastian SEIBT
Russia recently accused several NATO countries of "false flag" operations in order to pin the blame on Moscow. © France Médias Monde graphic studio
Russia’s foreign intelligence service (SVR) has ramped up accusations against the European Union, the UK and Poland in recent weeks, claiming they are orchestrating covert operations designed to frame Moscow for acts of sabotage.
The allegations – largely dismissed by Western officials as disinformation – have led some analysts to warn that the Kremlin may be laying the groundwork for a future escalation with NATO.
The SVR alleged on October 6 that the UK was recruiting Ukrainian agents to stage a maritime attack that would appear to have been carried out by Russia. The supposed plan included the use of Chinese equipment, which the SVR said was intended to implicate Beijing as well. The agency claimed the operatives were instructed to get arrested by Western authorities and then claim they had acted on orders from Moscow.
That was one in a rapid series of accusations. Russia accused Polish intelligence on September 30 of working with Ukrainian agents to create a fake Russian-Belarusian special forces unit aimed at attacking Polish infrastructure. A week earlier, the SVR claimed that NATO and EU officials were planning provocations in Moldova’s pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria.
While Western governments have largely dismissed or mocked these unverified claims, experts say their frequency – and timing – warrant close attention.
“There’s clearly been a surge in Russian claims of false flag operations by NATO countries, especially since late September,” said Patrick Rene Haasler, an intelligence analyst at the International Team for the Study of Security Verona.
Pre-war signalling?
According to the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War, Russia’s recent wave of accusations may signal that the Kremlin has entered what military analysts call “Phase 0” – a stage marked by covert operations, psychological warfare and disinformation that precedes open conflict.
Read more Drones, sabotage, surveillance: Moscow’s hybrid warfare takes to the high seas
“Phase 0 is Western terminology,” said Kevin Riehle, an intelligence expert at Brunel University in London. He explained that in Russian military doctrine, it corresponds to a “special period” – a concept inherited from the Soviet era – describing a phase of heightened tensions immediately before war breaks out.
During this “special period”, Russian doctrine focuses on sowing confusion, justifying future military actions and solidifying domestic support.
“It’s part of the broader Russian modern warfare doctrine, which is based on that kind of fog-of-war confusion, hybrid operations,” said Jeff Hawn, a Russia specialist at the London School of Economics.
He said it is a time used to “create a legal justification, or legal cover, for some kind of conflict – but also bolster domestic support”.
Familiar patterns
For many observers, these recent false flag claims echo tactics seen ahead of previous Russian military actions.
“The narrative that was used to justify Russia’s actions after the successful 2014 annexation of Crimea was that the Russian population was threatened by Ukrainian Nazis – literally,” said Yevgeniy Golovchenko, a researcher on Russian propaganda at the University of Copenhagen. Russia claimed that a group of Ukrainian Nazis was on its way to Crimea to kill anyone who spoke Russian.
In reality, such supposed threats were staged by Russian mercenaries or soldiers who carried out aggressive acts themselves.
Read more' Drone wall': Can Europe shield itself from Russian threats?
A similar storyline unfolded just before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
“A few days before the full-scale invasion, there were multiple explosions and other events in Donbas, which were used by Russia to say, ‘See? Ukrainians are aggressive, Donbas is threatened.’ So we have to carry out the special military operation to protect Russians defensively,” said Golovchenko. “They were trying to create an urgent threat against Russia that had to be dealt with – not tomorrow, but today.”
Moscow has tried to blame the West for staging false flag operations in the past. After the 2018 attempted poisoning of former double agent Sergei Skripal in the UK, Russian officials accused British intelligence of staging the attack to blame Moscow.
“Russia called that a false flag operation, saying that was MI6 trying to kill Skripal so it could blame Russia,” said Riehle.
Domestic audience
While these accusations are directed at Western governments, their primary audience appears to be domestic.
The target audience for such claims is the Russian population, Riehle said, noting that they are broadcast primarily through Russian media outlets to shape public opinion at home.
Golovchenko explained that these narratives are also designed “to vilify NATO” and portray the alliance as “threatening and aggressive” – in contrast to Russia, which is depicted as merely “trying to defend itself”.
Watch moreExclusive investigation: Is the Russian Orthodox Church in Sweden a platform for espionage?
This messaging strategy – portraying Russia as perpetually under siege – helps maintain internal support and frame any future military action as a necessity.
“Russia always invariably claims to be on the defence. It never accepts any allegations that it is being offensive. It’s always the other guy who started it,” Riehle added.
At the same time, the Kremlin remains sensitive to how it is perceived globally.
“Believe it or not, [Russia] actually does care very deeply about international legitimacy, even now,” said Hawn. “It’s all part of the hybrid warfare playbook – meant to sow confusion and blur the line between peace and wartime.”
Russia’s foreign intelligence service (SVR) has ramped up accusations against the European Union, the UK and Poland in recent weeks, claiming they are orchestrating covert operations designed to frame Moscow for acts of sabotage.
The allegations – largely dismissed by Western officials as disinformation – have led some analysts to warn that the Kremlin may be laying the groundwork for a future escalation with NATO.
The SVR alleged on October 6 that the UK was recruiting Ukrainian agents to stage a maritime attack that would appear to have been carried out by Russia. The supposed plan included the use of Chinese equipment, which the SVR said was intended to implicate Beijing as well. The agency claimed the operatives were instructed to get arrested by Western authorities and then claim they had acted on orders from Moscow.
That was one in a rapid series of accusations. Russia accused Polish intelligence on September 30 of working with Ukrainian agents to create a fake Russian-Belarusian special forces unit aimed at attacking Polish infrastructure. A week earlier, the SVR claimed that NATO and EU officials were planning provocations in Moldova’s pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria.
While Western governments have largely dismissed or mocked these unverified claims, experts say their frequency – and timing – warrant close attention.
“There’s clearly been a surge in Russian claims of false flag operations by NATO countries, especially since late September,” said Patrick Rene Haasler, an intelligence analyst at the International Team for the Study of Security Verona.
Pre-war signalling?
According to the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War, Russia’s recent wave of accusations may signal that the Kremlin has entered what military analysts call “Phase 0” – a stage marked by covert operations, psychological warfare and disinformation that precedes open conflict.
Read more Drones, sabotage, surveillance: Moscow’s hybrid warfare takes to the high seas
“Phase 0 is Western terminology,” said Kevin Riehle, an intelligence expert at Brunel University in London. He explained that in Russian military doctrine, it corresponds to a “special period” – a concept inherited from the Soviet era – describing a phase of heightened tensions immediately before war breaks out.
During this “special period”, Russian doctrine focuses on sowing confusion, justifying future military actions and solidifying domestic support.
“It’s part of the broader Russian modern warfare doctrine, which is based on that kind of fog-of-war confusion, hybrid operations,” said Jeff Hawn, a Russia specialist at the London School of Economics.
He said it is a time used to “create a legal justification, or legal cover, for some kind of conflict – but also bolster domestic support”.
Familiar patterns
For many observers, these recent false flag claims echo tactics seen ahead of previous Russian military actions.
“The narrative that was used to justify Russia’s actions after the successful 2014 annexation of Crimea was that the Russian population was threatened by Ukrainian Nazis – literally,” said Yevgeniy Golovchenko, a researcher on Russian propaganda at the University of Copenhagen. Russia claimed that a group of Ukrainian Nazis was on its way to Crimea to kill anyone who spoke Russian.
In reality, such supposed threats were staged by Russian mercenaries or soldiers who carried out aggressive acts themselves.
Read more' Drone wall': Can Europe shield itself from Russian threats?
A similar storyline unfolded just before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
“A few days before the full-scale invasion, there were multiple explosions and other events in Donbas, which were used by Russia to say, ‘See? Ukrainians are aggressive, Donbas is threatened.’ So we have to carry out the special military operation to protect Russians defensively,” said Golovchenko. “They were trying to create an urgent threat against Russia that had to be dealt with – not tomorrow, but today.”
Moscow has tried to blame the West for staging false flag operations in the past. After the 2018 attempted poisoning of former double agent Sergei Skripal in the UK, Russian officials accused British intelligence of staging the attack to blame Moscow.
“Russia called that a false flag operation, saying that was MI6 trying to kill Skripal so it could blame Russia,” said Riehle.
Domestic audience
While these accusations are directed at Western governments, their primary audience appears to be domestic.
The target audience for such claims is the Russian population, Riehle said, noting that they are broadcast primarily through Russian media outlets to shape public opinion at home.
Golovchenko explained that these narratives are also designed “to vilify NATO” and portray the alliance as “threatening and aggressive” – in contrast to Russia, which is depicted as merely “trying to defend itself”.
Watch moreExclusive investigation: Is the Russian Orthodox Church in Sweden a platform for espionage?
This messaging strategy – portraying Russia as perpetually under siege – helps maintain internal support and frame any future military action as a necessity.
“Russia always invariably claims to be on the defence. It never accepts any allegations that it is being offensive. It’s always the other guy who started it,” Riehle added.
At the same time, the Kremlin remains sensitive to how it is perceived globally.
“Believe it or not, [Russia] actually does care very deeply about international legitimacy, even now,” said Hawn. “It’s all part of the hybrid warfare playbook – meant to sow confusion and blur the line between peace and wartime.”
Escalation or intimidation?
While the rising number of accusations could suggest that Russia is laying the groundwork for an escalation, some analysts say that the Kremlin is likely posturing rather than preparing for immediate military action.
“One of the foundations of hybrid warfare is the ability to deny responsibility,” Haasler said. “These false flag claims could be part of a strategy to pre-emptively discredit Western narratives – or to justify real acts of sabotage later on.”
According to Riehle, Moscow’s objective may be less about striking first and more about signalling the potential cost of any future confrontation. Instead of planning an outright offensive, Russia appears to be shaping the narrative – offering the West a preview of what open conflict with Moscow might look like, while positioning itself to deny accountability if escalation occurs.
This article has been translated from the original in French by Natasha Li.
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