US–Pakistan Ties Are Quietly Redrawing South Asian Geopolitics – Analysis
President Donald Trump meets with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir of Pakistan, Thursday, September 25, 2025, in the Oval Office. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)
By Ishaal Zehra
The US–Pakistan relationship is thawing after years of mistrust. The two nations are rediscovering each other through energy, technology, and minerals, and appear to be building something that neither quite dared before: a partnership designed to last beyond crisis cycles.
This new phase of the partnership was marked by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief General Asim Munir’s recurring meetings with President Donald Trump, signaling Pakistan’s return to Washington’s strategic radar after nearly a decade on the sidelines. The transition from counterterrorism and wars to investment and interdependence is striking.
Commerce Drives the Revival
For decades, Pakistan–US ties were a study in volatility—alternating between cooperation and confrontation. Yet this time feels different. Washington is seeing Islamabad not merely as a security client but as a potential economic ally in the race to reshape global supply chains.
The breakthrough came when US Strategic Metals (USSM) pledged $500 million in Pakistan’s critical minerals—one of the largest US industrial pledges to Islamabad in recent years. The MoU focuses on exploring and processing rare earths, copper, and lithium—vital to electric vehicles and defense manufacturing.
Weeks later, Pakistan shipped its first batch of rare earth elements to the U.S., turning talks to trade. Reports suggest that both countries are negotiating trade and investment frameworks, including tariff relaxations and incentives for US companies in Pakistan’s mining and tech sectors.
Turning Resources into Geopolitical Power
For Islamabad, the minerals deal was more than an export milestone; it was a geopolitical message. By positioning itself as a new source of critical minerals, Islamabad is staking a claim in one of the most competitive arenas of modern-day economics.
Pakistan sits atop vast, largely untapped reserves of copper, gold, and rare earths—that could reshape its global standing. As Washington looks to reduce dependence on China, which currently controls 70 percent of global rare earth processing, Pakistan offers an alternative supply route connecting South and Central Asia to Western markets.
The equation is pragmatic: the United States gets diversification; Pakistan gets investment, recognition, and leverage. For Pakistan, the symbolism is deeply satisfying—a diplomatic return to South Asia’s strategic equation after years on the margins.
The Regional Chessboard
But this revival does not exist in a vacuum. China, Pakistan’s long-time strategic partner, is closely watching Washington’s return. With over $60 billion investments, Pakistan is a key player in China’s global Belt and Road Initiative, and now the US capital and mining interests are entering the same terrain. Yet Pakistan seems focused on diversification, not replacement— aiming to leverage both Chinese infrastructure and Western capital to overcome its economic challenges.
For India, the optics are troubling. After years of enjoying Washington’s near-exclusive attention in South Asia, particularly under the Indo-Pacific strategy and the Quad framework, New Delhi now needs to contend with Pakistan’s re-entry into Washington’s regional calculus. For New Delhi, this signals that the U.S. is willing to look beyond India in its regional balancing act, especially after the diplomatic fallout from Operation Sindoor.
Afghanistan, rich in lithium and copper, will be a key player in this mineral landscape—either driving a trilateral cooperation, complementing Pakistan’s reserves, or fueling competition, given the Taliban’s unpredictability and political leverage.
A New Triangular Order: U.S., Gulf, and Pakistan
In the Gulf, the revival of US-Pakistan ties fits neatly with Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s own deepening partnerships with Pakistan. Reports from Deloitte and S&P Global Market Intelligence indicate that Gulf sovereign wealth funds are increasingly targeting emerging mining and extractive industries in Asia, presenting opportunities for co-investment with US firms in Pakistan’s resource sector.
Riyadh’s Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) with Islamabad further complements Washington’s interest in securing energy and mineral corridors across the Arabian Sea. This could evolve into a triangular economic corridor linking US technology, Arab capital, and Pakistani resources. Further north, the resource-rich Central Asian states of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are also exploring connectivity through Pakistan’s ports for their exports to the West—reviving trade routes unseen since the Silk Road.
The opportunity, however, comes with risks. Pakistan’s mineral zones, particularly in Baluchistan, remain volatile, plagued by sporadic unrest and infrastructural fragility. Political instability and regulatory uncertainty could deter foreign investors. Then there’s the trust deficit that has long haunted Islamabad and Washington. The current US–Pakistan minerals MoU is, in many ways, a trial run for rebuilding trust after decades of broken promises and political friction. And this time success will hinge not on diplomacy but on delivery.
Economic Diplomacy Replaces Dependency
Yet the tone in Islamabad is cautiously confident today. The country is not seeking a bailout—it is offering business. Washington, too, is recalibrating its perception—seeing Pakistan less as a geopolitical burden and more as a potential partner in diversifying global supply chains.
Reports suggest US mineral investments could exceed $1 billion in the coming years, as Washington races to secure critical inputs for its weapons, robotics, and electric vehicles. To capitalize, Pakistan is hosting an investor conference in Washington this October. If the momentum holds, this partnership could become a defining chapter in US–Pakistan relations.
The US-Pakistan minerals deal may be worth half a billion dollars on paper, but its symbolic worth is far greater. The partnership could complement projects like CPEC, CASA-1000, and TAPI, enhancing Pakistan’s role in the global energy market. If handled pragmatically, Islamabad could leverage both Chinese infrastructure and Western capital to integrate regional economies, turning geography into genuine geo-economic strength.
- This article was published by Geopoliticalmonitor.com
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