COMMENT: Finland’s President Stubb lists the three obstacles to a Ukraine ceasefire
Finland’s President Alexander Stubb has warned that a ceasefire in Russia’s war against Ukraine is unlikely to materialise before spring, and urged Western allies to sustain support for Kyiv despite recent corruption scandals.
His comments, reported by European Pravda from an Associated Press briefing, underscore lingering strategic hurdles for conflict resolution even as Kyiv becomes mired in the worst political scandal of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s tenure.
“I’m not very optimistic about achieving a ceasefire or the beginning of peace negotiations, at least this year,” Stubb said.
Stubb repeated the constant rhetoric of the need to exert “maximum pressure” on Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin to force a shift in their strategic calculus, despite the failure of the world’s most extreme sanctions regime to alter the Kremlin’s policies.
“Putin basically wants to deny the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, and these objectives have not changed since the war began almost four years ago,” the Finnish president said.
Nevertheless, his remarks reflect a more subdued assessment of prospects for peace than the firebrand support Ukraine received during the first two years of the war. They come against a backdrop of Ukraine’s political turbulence and the increasingly negative coverage of Ukraine’s performance on the battlefield. Kyiv is grappling with the Energoatom corruption scandal where close associates of the president have reportedly stolen $100mn dollars from the energy sector.
Despite the damning news, Stubb stressed that European support must remain steadfast. He argued that without sustained pressure and unity among allies, Moscow’s intransigence will persist and the war will continue to exact a heavy toll on Ukraine’s infrastructure, economy and societal cohesion.
“Stubb outlined three major issues on the road to a ceasefire: so let’s run through it,” journalist and bne IntelliNews columnist Leonid Ragozin said in a social media post:
“Rebuilding the economy: Moscow will likely agree to fund Ukraine’s reconstruction from frozen assets, but last we heard - it will insist on part of these funds to be spent in occupied territories (which suffered most). This is negotiable, but if the EU signs off the reparation credit - forget it. Without the Russian money, Western funding is going to be insufficient - all the Western interest in Ukraine will evaporate as soon as the war is over.”
“Security guarantees: Easy one - there won’t be any security guarantees. Ukraine has been duped on this subject since the Bucharest summit. Another Budapest memorandum at best. The best guarantee for Ukraine is the West and Russia agreeing on the new security architecture in Europe.”
“Territorial claims: Putin wants the rest of Donetsk region, but Zelensky wants to lose it *honourably*, in a battle. The risk is the fate of northern Donbas will look sealed by the end of winter, but in the meantime Ukraine will lose swathes of land in Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv. At some point, Putin may add full Zaporizhzhia withdrawal to his conditions. Peskov already said that the current delay in talks will cost Ukraine a deteriorating starting position at the talks,” Ragozin concluded.
Poland’s PM Tusk warns Ukraine risks losing the war with Russia from the expanding corruption scandal
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk took to social media over the weekend and warned that the expanding Energoatom corruption scandal was undermining support for Kyiv in Europe.
“I warned Zelensky early in his presidency that Russia and pro-Russian groups in Europe would push the narrative that Ukraine is deeply corrupt. I urged him to watch carefully for any signs of corruption around him, because avoiding even the smallest scandal would be crucial for his reputation,” Tusk said on X.
“Today, enthusiasm for supporting Ukraine has weakened in Poland and abroad. People are tired of the war and its costs, so maintaining support is harder,” added Tusk.
The Prime Minister stressed that it’s in Poland’s “clear interest” for Ukraine to remain an independent, well-governed state.
“We will continue to support Ukraine in its defense against Russia, because by helping Ukraine, we also protect Poland,” he said. But, “It will become harder to convince international partners to stand with Ukraine if such corruption cases continue to appear.”
Tusk said he was confident that Ukraine’s leadership is serious about prosecuting those responsible. But added that “the damage is done and the cost will be high.”
“I sincerely urge everyone in Ukraine: guard against corruption and avoid the Russian model, because tolerating such actions could ultimately cost you the war,” Tusk said.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk took to social media over the weekend and warned that the expanding Energoatom corruption scandal was undermining support for Kyiv in Europe.
“I warned Zelensky early in his presidency that Russia and pro-Russian groups in Europe would push the narrative that Ukraine is deeply corrupt. I urged him to watch carefully for any signs of corruption around him, because avoiding even the smallest scandal would be crucial for his reputation,” Tusk said on X.
“Today, enthusiasm for supporting Ukraine has weakened in Poland and abroad. People are tired of the war and its costs, so maintaining support is harder,” added Tusk.
The Prime Minister stressed that it’s in Poland’s “clear interest” for Ukraine to remain an independent, well-governed state.
“We will continue to support Ukraine in its defense against Russia, because by helping Ukraine, we also protect Poland,” he said. But, “It will become harder to convince international partners to stand with Ukraine if such corruption cases continue to appear.”
Tusk said he was confident that Ukraine’s leadership is serious about prosecuting those responsible. But added that “the damage is done and the cost will be high.”
“I sincerely urge everyone in Ukraine: guard against corruption and avoid the Russian model, because tolerating such actions could ultimately cost you the war,” Tusk said.
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