Nigeria’s Top Oil Regulator Leaves Amid $10B Investment Push
The abrupt resignation of Nigeria’s top petroleum regulator shortly after the launch of one of the country’s largest oil block auctions in years has sparked fresh concerns. Gbenga Komolage, head of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, and Farouk Ahmed, head of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, have both resigned.
Their exits came after Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man and the owner of the giant Dangote Refinery, criticized Ahmed for allowing cut-price fuel imports that threaten local refineries. Dangote submitted a petition against Ahmed with a leading anti-graft agency on Wednesday. However, Nigerian President Bola Tinubu has nominated two people to replace the two, with the Senate expected to do so in the coming weeks.
Nigeria's Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) recently launched its 2025 licensing round, offering 50 oil and gas blocks (onshore, shallow water, frontier, deepwater). The auction is expected to attract $10 billion in investment, boost reserves by 2 billion barrels, and increase production by 400,000 barrels/day, using a new digital, transparent process under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) designed to attract local and international investors and enhance energy security.
Nigeria has been struggling to meet its OPEC+ quota in recent years, thanks to years of underinvestment coupled with rampant theft and pipeline vandalism. Africa’s largest oil producer saw crude output average ~1.5 million bpd in 2024, well below its 1.8 million bpd target. In 2022, NNPC reported losing up to 95% of its production at the Bonny terminal to theft, driven by widespread illegal connections. However, government interventions have helped reverse this trend: Nigeria's crude production jumped from 1.1 mbpd in 2022 to 1.83 mbpd in October 2025, reclaiming its place among the continent's top producers thanks to the government's new laws, fiscal incentives, and efforts to combat theft and vandalism.
Meanwhile, Western energy majors including Shell Plc (NYSE:SHEL), Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX), TotalEnergies SE (NYSE:TTE) and Seplat Energy Plc have increased gas output in Nigeria in a bid to strengthen the country’s electricity supply for industries and households. Average daily electricity generation clocked in at 5,700 MW in the final quarter of 2025, good for a nearly 40% increase from two years ago.
By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com
West Africa Oil Faces Crisis as Global Surplus Builds
Millions of barrels of Nigerian and Angolan crude remain unsold in the December and January loading programs, as they struggle to compete with ample supply and cheaper cargoes, traders and analysts have told Reuters.
Nigeria alone had about 20 million unsold cargoes as of December 17, two traders told the publication. In addition, there are a lot of Angolan cargoes still waiting for buyers for the December and January loadings.
As many as 26 cargoes remain unsold, signaling that there is a lot of supply from other producers and much of this supply is cheaper than West Africa’s.
China, for example, has accelerated purchases of Saudi crude oil for January to the highest volumes in five months, after the world’s top crude exporter slashed its official selling prices for Asia to the lowest premium over benchmarks in five years.
Chinese refiners have nominated almost 50 million barrels in total of Saudi crude volumes for January loading, about 10 million barrels higher compared to the December volumes and the highest level Chinese refiners have booked for one month since August this year.
Oversupplied markets will keep oil prices under pressure next year, and the U.S. benchmark will average below $60 per barrel, the monthly Reuters poll of analysts and economists showed at the end of November.
The U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, is expected to average $59 per barrel in 2026, according to the poll of 35 analysts and economists. That’s lower compared to the $60.23 per barrel forecast in the previous month’s survey.
Despite geopolitical flare-ups in recent days, Brent Crude prices slipped to the lowest level since May below $60 per barrel amid persistent concerns about a large oil glut in early 2026. Even a blockade on sanctioned tankers carrying Venezuelan crude ordered by U.S. President Donald Trump did not move prices for more than a day.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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