After Aleppo: What SDF-Damascus clashes mean for Syria's future
The deadly clashes in Aleppo expose the fragility of the post-Assad order, highlighting the challenges of integrating the northeast and the risk of renewed war
Cian Ward
12 January, 2026
THE NEW ARAB
Aleppo, Syria - Syria is teetering on the brink of a return to full-scale war, as bloodshed returned to Aleppo’s streets following the Syrian government’s offensive to seize the Kurdish-majority neighbourhoods of Achrafieh and Sheikh Maqsoud from the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
Fighting erupted last Tuesday and continued for days as the SDF was gradually pushed out of neighbourhoods it has controlled for a decade. Humanitarian crossings were opened on Wednesday and Thursday mornings, through which large crowds of people were moving, carrying with them all their personal belongings.
They carried their pets, their children and their lives on their shoulders. “God protect us,” Ada, a resident, told The New Arab. “We are going back to Afrin now - back home.” In 2018, 300,000 people, mostly Kurds, fled Afrin as the Syrian National Army (SNA), a Turkish-backed armed faction, seized control of the city from the SDF.
By Thursday, 149,000 people had fled the embattled neighbourhoods, according to Aleppo’s Directorate of Social Affairs and Labour. Many, like Ada, were travelling to the Kurdish-majority city of Afrin, whilst others, without a place to go, were given shelter in a number of mosques around Aleppo that had been converted into temporary displacement shelters.
The Zain Al-Abidi Mosque had reached capacity by Wednesday, according to Shahed Baki Zada, an official of the Aleppo Governorate tasked with managing the centre. “We have been working since the morning to get the centre ready, but the situation is very difficult,” he told TNA.
Not long after a 1:30pm deadline expired on Thursday for civilians to leave, heavy clashes between the Syrian government and the SDF commenced. The Al-Zahoor crossing, which only minutes earlier had been the safe passage for families of fleeing civilians, became the site of street fights involving the use of artillery, rockets, and tanks.
These clashes were to continue late into the night as the SDF was pushed out of its stronghold of Achrafieh. Around 3:00am, a ceasefire - which had been mediated with US support - was announced, and largely held throughout the morning.
On Friday, it was expected that a convoy of buses would evacuate the remaining armed SDF fighters from Sheikh Maqsoud to SDF territory in Syria’s northeast. They never did. Instead, the deal collapsed. At the evacuation point, which was only tens of meters from the SDF lines, security officials gave hasty orders for the assembled press to quickly vacate the site. Soon after, intense heavy machine gunfire sent the assembled crowds ducking behind cars.
Aleppo, Syria - Syria is teetering on the brink of a return to full-scale war, as bloodshed returned to Aleppo’s streets following the Syrian government’s offensive to seize the Kurdish-majority neighbourhoods of Achrafieh and Sheikh Maqsoud from the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
Fighting erupted last Tuesday and continued for days as the SDF was gradually pushed out of neighbourhoods it has controlled for a decade. Humanitarian crossings were opened on Wednesday and Thursday mornings, through which large crowds of people were moving, carrying with them all their personal belongings.
They carried their pets, their children and their lives on their shoulders. “God protect us,” Ada, a resident, told The New Arab. “We are going back to Afrin now - back home.” In 2018, 300,000 people, mostly Kurds, fled Afrin as the Syrian National Army (SNA), a Turkish-backed armed faction, seized control of the city from the SDF.
By Thursday, 149,000 people had fled the embattled neighbourhoods, according to Aleppo’s Directorate of Social Affairs and Labour. Many, like Ada, were travelling to the Kurdish-majority city of Afrin, whilst others, without a place to go, were given shelter in a number of mosques around Aleppo that had been converted into temporary displacement shelters.
The Zain Al-Abidi Mosque had reached capacity by Wednesday, according to Shahed Baki Zada, an official of the Aleppo Governorate tasked with managing the centre. “We have been working since the morning to get the centre ready, but the situation is very difficult,” he told TNA.
Not long after a 1:30pm deadline expired on Thursday for civilians to leave, heavy clashes between the Syrian government and the SDF commenced. The Al-Zahoor crossing, which only minutes earlier had been the safe passage for families of fleeing civilians, became the site of street fights involving the use of artillery, rockets, and tanks.
These clashes were to continue late into the night as the SDF was pushed out of its stronghold of Achrafieh. Around 3:00am, a ceasefire - which had been mediated with US support - was announced, and largely held throughout the morning.
On Friday, it was expected that a convoy of buses would evacuate the remaining armed SDF fighters from Sheikh Maqsoud to SDF territory in Syria’s northeast. They never did. Instead, the deal collapsed. At the evacuation point, which was only tens of meters from the SDF lines, security officials gave hasty orders for the assembled press to quickly vacate the site. Soon after, intense heavy machine gunfire sent the assembled crowds ducking behind cars.
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Fighting recommenced on Friday evening after a 6:00pm deadline ended for civilians to leave the enclave. Many fighting-aged men were being pulled out of the fleeing crowds under suspicion of being SDF fighters attempting to escape under the guise of being civilians.
The clashes continued into Sunday morning as the SDF was pushed out of the neighbourhood of Sheikh Maqsoud. By Sunday morning, the SDF’s commander-in-chief, Mazloum Abdi, posted on X that, “we have reached an understanding that leads to a ceasefire and securing the evacuation of the martyrs, wounded and fighters to northern and eastern Syria”.
The city is now “empty of SDF fighters,” according to Aleppo Governor Azzam al-Gharib, with the last fighters reportedly being evacuated out on buses as part of a US-mediated deal.
Over the week, at least 30 people were killed in the clashes, while more than 150,000 were displaced, in some of the most intense fighting that Syria has witnessed since the fall of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime over a year ago.
A conflict between Syria's two largest armed camps would dwarf the spates of violence that have erupted in Syria in the last 12 months. [Getty]
How did we get here?
Tensions between the two armed camps have been growing over the last year as negotiations to integrate the SDF into the Syrian government, ongoing since March, have failed to make progress. A deadline at the end of 2025 to resolve the standoff was passed without resolution.
The last year has seen frequent bouts of violence between the two, although most incidents have been limited to minor skirmishes using light weaponry.
Aleppo itself has also witnessed two previous rounds of clashes between the SDF positioned in the Kurdish-majority neighbourhoods and the government forces surrounding them; however, both bouts were quickly ended by rushed diplomatic efforts to avoid full-scale conflict.
Yet this time was different - neither side seemed willing to back down. There may be a few reasons as to why. With the passing of the end-of-year deadline, it may be “that the government doesn't want there to be a ceasefire,” says Alex McKeever, a researcher and author of the "This Week in Northern Syria" blog.
The “most recent visit to Damascus [by SDF leader Mazloum Abdi] apparently went very badly,” McKeever told TNA. It also seems that the “Americans are frustrated with the SDF and their perceived intransigence”.
McKeever believes that the US could be allowing the Syrian government to “increase the pressure on the SDF,” in order to bring them to the negotiating table.
If this is the case, then it would perhaps signal that recent fighting in Aleppo does not necessarily presage a wider conflict between the two sides, but rather was enacted to pressure the SDF into making concessions in negotiations.
What comes next?
However, it remains to be seen whether this strategy is going to bring both sides to the table or deepen mutual distrust and hostility.
“We don’t really know the status of the March agreement [which lays out the framework for SDF integration],” says McKeever. Since Mazloum Abdi’s unsuccessful visit to Damascus on 4 January, there appear to have been no further developments in the negotiation.
There might be a push from the US to continue the negotiations, but I don't see how the SDF can proceed due to the lack of trust now,” says Wladimir van Wilgenberg, an Iraq-based Kurdish affairs analyst. Instead, he believes that “there is a high possibility that the conflict will continue”.
All SDF fighters have now reportedly left Aleppo after a ceasefire deal was reached. [Getty]
The SDF warned on Wednesday that the government’s actions “will lead to serious repercussions that will not be limited to the city of Aleppo alone but will risk plunging all of Syria back into an open battlefield”.
On Saturday, a number of suicide drones launched from SDF-controlled positions hit Aleppo, including the municipality building during a press conference being held by several senior government ministers.
In response, the Syrian government claimed to strike the launch sites of the drones around the SDF-controlled town of Deir Hafer, which marks one of the likely flashpoints in any continuation of the SDF-government conflict.
On Sunday, Syria’s Army Operations Command announced that it was monitoring the SDF “bringing medium and heavy weaponry to the Deir Hafer front,” and that “all scenarios are being prepared for”.
This is possibly one of the most precarious moments Syria has faced since the fall of Bashar Al-Assad’s government just over a year ago, as a conflict between Syria’s two largest armed camps would dwarf the spates of violence that have erupted in Syria in the last 12 months.
The SDF warned on Wednesday that the government’s actions “will lead to serious repercussions that will not be limited to the city of Aleppo alone but will risk plunging all of Syria back into an open battlefield”.
On Saturday, a number of suicide drones launched from SDF-controlled positions hit Aleppo, including the municipality building during a press conference being held by several senior government ministers.
In response, the Syrian government claimed to strike the launch sites of the drones around the SDF-controlled town of Deir Hafer, which marks one of the likely flashpoints in any continuation of the SDF-government conflict.
On Sunday, Syria’s Army Operations Command announced that it was monitoring the SDF “bringing medium and heavy weaponry to the Deir Hafer front,” and that “all scenarios are being prepared for”.
This is possibly one of the most precarious moments Syria has faced since the fall of Bashar Al-Assad’s government just over a year ago, as a conflict between Syria’s two largest armed camps would dwarf the spates of violence that have erupted in Syria in the last 12 months.
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What does the battle for Aleppo tell us about a future conflict?
An all-out war between the SDF and Syria’s young government would present an unprecedented challenge for its fledgling security services.
The government managed to seize two heavily fortified neighbourhoods in a matter of days, which may boost its assessment of its prospects in a broader fight; however, this isn’t quite so certain, according to analysts.
“I’m not too surprised it fell that quickly,” says McKeever, “as the SDF found itself heavily outgunned.” On Wednesday, the highway to Aleppo was full of convoys of heavy weaponry rushing to the fight, and during the clashes, the heavy thud of artillery was almost constant, making it clear that the government had decided to deploy large amounts of heavy weaponry to the fight.
Whereas “there is little evidence that the SDF was utilising heavy weaponry,” explains McKeever, “as they moved all of it out of Aleppo last April as part of an agreement with the government”.
Equally, despite some rhetoric from pro-government media, the SDF accepted the establishment of the government’s humanitarian corridors and did not prohibit the local population from leaving.
“They could have acted far more aggressively, and morally dubiously, by forcing civilians to stay in place, which would have made the task of capturing the neighbourhood far more complicated.”
Finally, he adds that the neighbourhoods of Achrafieh and Sheikh Maqsoud, “aren’t particularly defensible areas,” whereas the SDF defensive positions in the north-east are far easier to defend.
A full-scale war between the two would be far larger than any of the bouts of violence that the new government has faced since it stormed to power over a year ago. According to McKeever, the SDF is “very well organised, disciplined and motivated - and much better armed” than the Druze or Alawite groups that have clashed with the government over the last year.
The SDF claims to have tens of thousands of fighters, many of whom are veterans hardened by years of fighting against the Islamic State (IS).
“Predicting how such a conflict would play out also really depends on the role of Turkey,” says McKeever, which could play a pivotal role in any potential conflict, by providing key air support to the government forces.
Turkey’s Ministry of Defence announced last Thursday that it was ready “to provide the necessary support” to the Syrian government in a conflict with the SDF.
Ankara later launched a drone strike on SDF positions near the city of Tabqa, the first such strike in almost a year, in a clear signal of Turkish willingness to intervene.
Cian Ward is a journalist based in Damascus, covering conflict, migration, and humanitarian issues
Follow him on X: @CP__Ward
Edited by Charlie Hoyle
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