More deaths than births in Europe for the first time since 1918

Claire Lemaire
15 January 2026
BRUSSELS SIGNAL


For the first time since the end of the First World War, more people are dying than are being born in Europe.

That is according to figures published yesterday by France’s national statistical office, INSEE. The trend now affects the entire continent, including countries where fertility rates used to be relatively high.

In its annual demographic report, INSEE reported that deaths outnumbered births in Europe in 2025. It said that was not because of an exceptional rise in mortality but due to a sustained fall in births combined with an ageing population.

In France for instance, 651,000 people died in 2025 while 645,000 babies were born — a difference of 6,000. For the first time since the end of the Great War, the natural population balance turned negative.

“This is a very logical demographic evolution,” said Peter Vanden Houte, Chief Economist at ING Belgium, speaking to Brussels Signal today.

“Since the early 1970s, with the arrival of the contraceptive pill, the number of births in Europe has declined sharply,” he said. “The baby boom of the 1950s and 1960s has therefore gradually become the largest segment of the population.”

At the same time, he said, “the number of women who are of childbearing age has structurally declined,” while “in recent years we have also seen a significant increase in the age at which women have their first child.”

“All of this means that fewer children are being born, while among the post-war baby boomers, the number of deaths is increasing,” Vanden Houte said.

According to the INSEE figures, the shift is the result of long-term trends. Birth numbers have been declining almost continuously since 2007. Last year, the number of births fell to its lowest level since 1918, while deaths continued to rise as the large post-war generations reached older age.

The average number of children per woman has also dropped to levels not seen since 1918, according to INSEE. At the same time, deaths are increasing even in the absence of major health crises as the population grows older.

Similar demographic patterns are visible across Europe, including in regions that were long considered more resilient.

“It’s no secret that advanced Europe has aged very rapidly over the last 70 years… this is now visible across the whole continent” said Beata Javorcik, Chief Economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, speaking at a conference yesterday.

Fertility in Europe has fallen from around five children per woman 150 years ago to about two today. The same applies, she said, to eastern European Union member states, where fertility used to be higher than in the rest of the continent, but where the rates are now well below replacement.

As a result, the workforce is shrinking faster than the population as a whole, a trend that is already weighing on economic growth. “Demographic trends are already shaving off growth in GDP per capita,” Javorcik said.

Zsolt Darvas, a senior researcher at the Brussels-based Bruegel think-tank, confirmed that the “problem” was no longer limited to certain regions.

“It used to be said that demographic decline was mainly a southern European issue,” he said. “But eastern Europe is now even lower — lower than Italy or Spain, for that matter.”

According to Darvas, all advanced economies now have fertility rates well below replacement and are running at around 1.6 children per woman.

Even in Scandinavia, often cited as a positive model, social policies can soften the decline but cannot reverse it, Darvas added.

In countries that introduced financial aid and incentives for parents in the last years, such as Hungary for instance, fertility rates continue to decline, he said.