Chungnam National University study finds climate adaptation can ease migration pressures in Africa
Investments in agricultural productivity and adaptive capacity reduce migration from drought and armed conflict
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Two African women working in a field together, symbolizing how enhanced agricultural productivity and adaptive capacity bolster livelihoods, easing migration pressures from drought and armed conflict across the continent.
view moreCredit: CIAT International Center for Tropical Agriculture from Flickr Image source: https://openverse.org/image/7dcaa65b-9546-4c4a-bc09-59d0e2521562
Africa confronts escalating internal migration and displacement crises fueled by intensifying climate hazards—particularly prolonged droughts—and persistent armed conflicts, which compound vulnerabilities across the continent. Previous research clearly links these stressors to heightened population movements, but limited empirical work examines climate adaptation's role, especially agriculture's influence, in moderating these effects at grid and country levels.
On this premise, a study led by Professor Hyun Kim, Associate Professor in the School of Public Administration at Chungnam National University, shows that while drought and armed conflict are strongly associated with increased migration, higher levels of adaptive capacity substantially reduce migration when these stressors are present. The article, which was made available online on November 25, 2025, in the journal Sustainable Development, analyzed country and grid-level data from African nations over a 20-year period (1995–2015).
Rather than serving as a standalone solution, climate adaptation acts as a moderating force. Countries with stronger adaptive capacity experience lower migration levels during drought or armed conflict than less adaptive countries. This capacity is measured through key indicators, including agricultural output, access to water, health systems, infrastructure, and disaster preparedness.
“Agricultural productivity plays a particularly important role,” said Dr. Hyun Kim. “Higher crop yields are consistently associated with lower migration, highlighting how food security and livelihoods help stabilize communities during climate and conflict-related shocks.”
The researchers examined migration data from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, armed conflict records from the Uppsala Conflict Data Project, drought data from the EM-DAT disaster database, and climate adaptation indicators from the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index. Migration was quantified by annual population movements originating within the countries, including internally displaced persons and asylum seekers.
The study finds that armed conflict and drought independently increase migration risk. However, their combined effects are significantly weakened in countries with stronger adaptive capacity. This moderating effect is most pronounced during crisis conditions, suggesting that climate adaptation policies are especially critical when communities face overlapping environmental and security threats.
“Climate adaptation is often framed as a long-term environmental strategy,” Prof. Kim said. “Our findings show it also has immediate social benefits by reducing migration pressures stemming from both climate hazards and armed conflict.”
Beyond migration outcomes, the results align closely with several United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including Good Health and Well-being (SDG 3), Reduced Inequalities (SDG 10), Climate Action (SDG 13), and Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions (SDG 16). Strengthening adaptive capacity, particularly within the agricultural sector, may help prevent humanitarian crises by addressing climate vulnerability before displacement escalates.
While the study focuses on Africa, the authors note that the findings hold broader implications for global debates on climate finance, climate justice, and migration governance. As climate risks intensify worldwide, the research underscores the importance of prioritizing adaptation as part of integrated strategies to reduce displacement and enhance resilience in vulnerable regions.
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Reference
DOI: 10.1002/sd.70475
About the Institute
Chungnam National University (CNU), located in Daejeon, South Korea, is a leading national university renowned for its excellence in research and education. Established in 1952, CNU offers diverse programs in engineering, medicine, sciences, and the arts, fostering innovation and global collaboration. Situated near Daedeok Innopolis, a major R&D hub, it excels in biotechnology, materials science, and information technology. With a vibrant international community and cutting-edge facilities, CNU continues to drive academic and technological advancements, making it a top choice for students worldwide.
Website: https://plus.cnu.ac.kr/html/en/
About Associate Professor Hyun Kim
Hyun Kim is an Associate Professor in the School of Public Administration at Chungnam National University, where he serves as Director of both the National Policy Research Institute and the Climate–Environment–Society–Digital Innovation (CSI) Research Institute. His work is dedicated to strengthening the science–policy interface by integrating urban and environmental policy with science, technology, and economic innovation. Through this interdisciplinary lens, his research institutes develop AI- and digital-driven policy platforms designed to foster the co-evolution of public policy and technological advancement. Prior to his current appointment, Dr. Kim completed postdoctoral training at the University of Notre Dame and earned his PhD in Urban and Environmental Planning and Policy from the University of Wisconsin–Madison in 2015.
Article Title
When Migration Encounters Adaptation in Africa: Engaging With Climate Hazard and Armed Conflict
Learning from the Global South: How do people cope with heat?
Charité researchers investigate adaptations to climate change in sub-Saharan Africa
Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin
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Mud houses like this one heat up in the Kenyan midday heat, with temperatures on the metal roof even exceeding 55°C. If painted white, the roof temperature only rises to around 46°C, as the current study shows. Together with simple home modifications such as mat ceilings and cross ventilation, the indoor temperature of the house can be significantly reduced. © Charité | Daniel Kwaro
view moreCredit: © Charité | Daniel Kwaro
Climate change presents tremendous challenges, especially for people in the Global South. Two international studies led by Charité – Universitätsmedizin Berlin have investigated how the population in sub-Saharan Africa is coping with rising temperatures and the threat of infection - and what can be done about it. Reporting in the journals The Lancet Planetary Health* and Nature Medicine**, the researchers relate that women in agriculture suffer more from rising temperatures, while simple measures can improve domestic living conditions. The results are also relevant for adapting to climate change in Germany.
Heat and drought present major problems for farmers. Not only due to the fact that their plants wither and their animals die of thirst. "In sub-Saharan Africa in particular, farmers spend many hours in the fields, putting themselves at great risk," reports Dr. Martina Maggioni, who heads the Topic of Climate Change and Health at the Charité Center for Global Health. "We wanted to find out how the women and men in Burkina Faso, one of the poorest countries in the world, are coping with the rising temperatures."
People adapt – if possible
An international study led by Martina Maggioni, which also included scientists from Burkina Faso, Kenya and the University of Heidelberg, provided 39 women and 39 men with wearable measuring devices. The team recorded the ambient temperature and humidity, in addition to the physical activity, body temperature and pulse of the subsistence farmers for over a year. "This allowed us to calculate how physically demanding the work was and how it impacted on their health," reports Martina Maggioni.
It emerged that specifically women could not adapt their activities in the field well to the increasing heat. "The men could shift their work to the early morning or late evening hours or even to the cooler months. We haven't seen that with women, who often also take care of the household, putting them especially at risk from the rising temperatures." Martina Maggioni hopes that the results will now be used for early warning systems and the protection of outdoor workers. As temperatures continue to rise, however, the adaptations reach their limits in sub-Saharan Africa and food safety could be endangered.
Simple measures delivering major impact
The second project, jointly led by Dr. Bernard Abong'o from the Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI) and Martina Maggioni, focused on the housing situation: "Here in Kenya, the rural population mostly lives in mud houses and is extremely impacted by both the rising temperatures and the mosquitoes that transmit malaria," as Bernard Abong'o stated.
Simple, affordable measures are called for: as it was shown, simple home modifications, as for example white-painted roofs combined with the installation of insect screens on all open eaves, doors and windows greatly improved the living conditions after a relatively short period of time: Indoors, both the temperature and the number of mosquitoes dropped significantly. "Almost all households wanted to take part because the measures were cheap and effective," reports Martina Maggioni. Now they are to be extended to other parts of Kenya and even to other countries in southern Africa.
Results also relevant for Germany
The results of the two studies are also interesting for Germany: Because temperatures are also on the rise in this country, farmers and workers need to be protected both indoors and outdoors. "Air conditioning systems are not the solution: We need affordable and sustainable measures to adapt our cities and buildings to the current environmental changes," demands Martina Maggioni.
As Prof. Beate Kampmann, Scientific Director of the Charité Center for Global Health, emphasizes, neither climate change nor health or disease know national borders: "This is why research into global health is so crucial: We can learn from people in the Global South today, because they are already confronted with what we will be facing in the near future. While we are already very advanced in terms of diagnostics and therapy in Germany, there is still a lot to do in terms of prevention."
*Eggert E et al. Physical effort during labour and behavioural adaptations in response to heat stress among subsistence farmers in Burkina Faso: a gender-specific longitudinal observational study. Lancet Planet Health 2025 Dec 22. doi: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101344
**Abong’o B et al. Housing modifications for heat adaptation, thermal comfort and malaria vector control in rural African settlements. Nat Med 2025 Jan 05. doi: 10.1038/s41591-025-04104-9
About the studies
The study on behavioural adaptations to high temperatures in Burkina Faso (published in Lancet Planetary Health) was funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG) as part of the Research Unit FOR 2936. The work was led by PD Dr. Martina Maggioni, with Edgar Eggert from the Institute of Physiology at Charité as the first and corresponding author. The support of Dr. Ali Sié, Director of the Centre de Recherche en Santé de Nouna (CRSN) in Nouna, Burkina Faso, was crucial to implementing the study.
The study on passive cooling of houses in Kenya (published in Nature Medicine) was funded by the Wellcome Trust and SeaFreight Labs. It was written by first author Dr. Bernard Abong'o (KEMRI), with Dr. Eric Ochomo (KEMRI) and Martina Maggioni as senior authors.
Journal
The Lancet Planetary Health
Wits-led genetic study adds over 1000 new African genomes to global science
Project will likely uncover millions of novel genetic variants that could reshape how disease risk is predicted and how treatments are tailored.
University of the Witwatersrand
A newly published paper in Nature describes the complex process of launching a nine-country collaboration in Africa to significantly expand scientists’ understanding of human genetic diversity. This can reveal new insights into diseases such as cancer, mental illness, diabetes, and heart disease, benefitting health systems globally.
The Assessing Genetic Diversity in Africa (AGenDA) project has generated whole-genome sequence data from more than 1000 individuals from communities that are largely underrepresented in global genomic databases.
It is anticipated that this effort will uncover millions of novel genetic variants that could reshape how disease risk is predicted and how treatments are tailored.
AGenDA is a deeply collaborative project with balanced contributions developed through a process of co-creation. The study includes hunter-gatherer communities, Nilo-Saharan and Afro-Asiatic speakers, understudied Bantu-speaking groups, and North African and Indian Ocean island communities.
In partnership with local research groups, participants were recruited in Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Libya, Mauritius, Rwanda, Tunisia, and Zimbabwe with overall project coordination from South Africa.
“Most genomic datasets that are used to predict disease risk come from people of European origin. As a result, the genetic ‘patterns’ guiding modern medicine are very Eurocentric and poorly predict diseases in African populations. AGenDA was designed to increase representation of African genomic data in global datasets to address this disparity and to ensure that African populations can also benefit,” says Professor Michèle Ramsay, Director of the Sydney Brenner Institute for Molecular Bioscience (SBIMB) at Wits University and lead author of the study.
African genomes are older and more diverse than those of any other continent. Two Africans from different regions can be more genetically different from each other than a European and an Asian. When African data are missing, genetic tools can fail to detect important risk variants and produce inaccurate disease-risk predictions.
“AGenDA is about correcting that imbalance so that genetic research and resulting medical interventions work for African people and for the world,” says Dr Furahini Tluway, AGenDA Project Coordinator at SBIMB and a co-author of the study. “By sequencing whole genomes and not just small genetic panels, we are creating rich reference data that scientists everywhere can use,” she says.
Professor Scott Hazelhurst, SBIMB’s head of bioinformatics, explains the technical impact: “Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) rely on recognising patterns in DNA, but those patterns look very different across populations. Without African data, risk-prediction models are biased and often inaccurate for African patients. By expanding African genome reference data, AGenDA is making GWAS more scientifically robust and more ethically sound.”
Meanwhile AGenDA hopes to be an exemplary research governance model: it is led from the continent by African scientists. Data sharing is managed through African-based data-access committees that review who can use the data, for what purpose and under what conditions. Communities are engaged before any sampling begins, and consent processes are adapted to local languages, cultures, and governance systems.
This approach ensures that participants are not passive subjects of research but informed partners whose rights, values, and expectations shape how data are collected, stored, and shared. It also protects against the historical exploitation of African data without African control.
AGenDA builds on more than a decade of African-led genomic science through the Human Heredity and Health in Africa (H3Africa) Consortium. H3Africa is a pan-African initiative established to strengthen genomics research capacity on the continent and ensure that African populations benefit from genomic medicine. H3Africa has supported dozens of large-scale studies, trained scientists across Africa, and created major genomic resources that are now used globally.
One of these resources is AWI-Gen (Africa Wits-INDEPTH Partnership for Genomic Studies), a flagship H3Africa project co-led from Wits University. AWI-Gen studies the genetic and environmental drivers of cardiometabolic diseases such as diabetes, obesity, and hypertension in African populations.
“The choice of populations for sequencing in genomic studies has usually been chosen from existing samples. Of course, this has resulted in significant gaps in genomic representation in terms of geography and ethnolinguistic diversity. Our strategy of focusing on understudied geographies and identifying partners from these regions has enabled us to address some of the most prominent geographic gaps, such as North Africa, and to make the dataset more comprehensive by including Nilo-Saharan, Afro-Asiatic and African Islander populations that are not adequately represented in current public datasets,” says Dr Ananyo Choudhury, the co-lead for AGenDA and a senior scientist at SBIMB.
In the long term, AGenDA data will help build African genetic reference databases used for disease research, genetic testing, and medicine worldwide. This will improve research on diseases, such as heart disease, diabetes and other chronic illnesses and infections, that strongly affect African populations. In turn, this will make global medical science more accurate.
“Because African genomes contain the deepest branches of human genetic history, they help scientists distinguish genetic variants that are ancient from those that arose more recently and help to detect variants that truly influence disease. Studying African diversity improves genetic science for everyone,” notes Ramsay.
Journal
Nature
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