After Trump’s Trade Deal With China, Has QUAD Lost Its Bite? – Analysis

May 25, 2026 
By P. K. Balachandran


The US and India still need QUAD to hedge their bets vis-à-vis China.

The QUAD’s Foreign Ministers are to meet in New Delhi on Monday to lay the ground for the top leaders’ summit in September.

Comprising the US, Japan, Australia and India, QUAD was set up in 2007 to meet the mounting challenge from an expansionist China in the Indo-Pacific region. But today it is relevant more to Japan and Australia, and less to the US and India. This is because the US and India are engaged in mending fences with China through enhanced trade and investment flows.

Yet, the US and India need QUAD to hedge their bets vis-à-vis China.

Trump’s China Visit

While President Donald Trump claimed that President Xi Jinping had agreed to buy billions of dollars of US agricultural products and 200 Boeing aircraft, China was not so specific, only indicating an expansion of Sino-US trade.

There was no specific agreement on Iran and Taiwan either.

However, at the end of Trump’s meeting with Xi, the White House said that China would purchase at least US$ 17 billion worth of US agricultural products per year.

There are a number of meat-exporting companies in the US that were deregistered by the Chinese. The Chinese have now moved to re-register them, which means that these companies can export to China. The Chinese have also agreed to review a bunch of US biotechnology traits that have to be approved scientifically. This is all on top of the 25 million metric tonnes of soybeans China agreed to buy in October 2025.

However, Beijing’s readout did not directly confirm those deals, only saying that both sides would “promote expanded two-way trade” in agricultural goods and that they had made arrangements about China procuring American planes.

On Taiwan, Trump did not warn Xi, though Xi drew a red line on the disputed island. Taipei could be disappointed with this, but there is nothing it can do about it now, given the fact that America’s attention is on saving its economy and seeing that Iran is dealt with without resuming hostilities.
Rubio’s Visit to Delhi and QUAD Summit

It is in this geo-economic context that the visit to New Delhi by the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the QUAD’s Foreign Ministers’ meeting in New Delhi on Monday should be seen.

Rubio has indicated that he is in India to make India buy US and Venezuelan oil in lieu of Russian oil, Boeing planes and other US industrial and agricultural products and re-activate QUAD, which seemed to have lost its way in Trump’s second term.

Rubio’s primary task appears to be to soothe ruffled feelings in India about the way Trump has been treating its “strategic partner” both verbally and in matters of trade.

On QUAD he said that India plays an important role in the US’s Indo-Pacific policy and that he hoped to “renew” the QUAD engagement.

Indicating the close relations between Trump and Modi, Rubio said that the two leaders are expected to meet in June at Evian in France for the G-7 summit. Modi is also expected to travel to the US for the G-20 summit at Mar-a-Lago in December this year.


The US State Department spokesperson Tommy Pigott added that Rubio had extended an invitation, on behalf of President Trump, to Prime Minister Modi to visit the White House.

Rubio and Modi also discussed Iran. Rubio emphasised that the US will not let Iran hold the global energy market hostage and affirmed that US energy products have the potential to diversify India’s energy supply. The Indian readout said that Modi stated India’s “consistent support for peace efforts” and “reiterated the call for peaceful resolution of the conflicts through dialogue and diplomacy”. There was no mention of oil purchaces from the US.

The US Ambassador to India, Sergio Gor, said that the US believes that a strong America and a strong India are essential to the world. “When I saw Indian companies committing US$ 20.5 billion to the US economy, I was simply blown away,” he remarked.

However, these statements coincided with new US restrictions on H1-B visas and regulations mandating Permanent Resident Card (or ‘Green Card’) applicants to leave the US and complete their applications in their home countries. This would mean considerable dislocation for Indian professionals.

Richard Fontaine and Lisa Curtis noted in a piece in “Foreign Affairs” in January this year, that India had signed a one-year agreement to increase imports of liquefied petroleum gas from the United States. The two governments had completed a deal for India to purchase US$ 93 million worth of Javelin antitank missile systems and precision-guided artillery and signed a nearly US$ 1 billion contract for the maintenance of the Indian Navy’s US -made MH-60R Sea Hawk helicopters. The annual Malabar naval exercise involving Australia, India, Japan, and the United States took place off the coast of Guam in mid-November 2025.

“But these are small steps. If Washington wants to really repair the relationship, it will have to go big. It can begin by finally concluding a trade deal that lowers the massive US tariffs, even if it means accepting some protectionism in India’s agriculture sector, which still employs almost 50% of the country’s population,” Fontaine and Curtis said.

The two experts advised Trump not to bracket India with Pakistan.

“The White House also needs to more clearly understand the roles that New Delhi and Islamabad play in the Indo-Pacific, particularly in the context of strategic competition with Beijing. An India that is more capable of defending its border with China and is more active in the surrounding ocean can stretch Chinese resources and complicate Beijing’s planning. US-Indian technology cooperation can assist the United States in outcompeting China, particularly in artificial intelligence as American tech giants are pouring billions into the Indian market. And the United States and India can strengthen their diplomatic positions by taking them together, particularly within the QUAD framework. If Washington wants to really repair the relationship, it will have to go big,” the authors said.
Rubio On QUAD

On QUAD, Rubio said that the QUAD Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in India is “a tangible sign of what an important role India plays for the United States and its posture and approach to the Indo-Pacific.”

QUAD Not a Write Off

QUAD has not had a meeting of national leaders since 2024, when then-President Joe Biden hosted his counterparts in Wilmington, Delaware. India was meant to host the next annual meeting in the latter part of 2025, but that never materialised amid tensions between India and the new administration of President Donald Trump.

“The US, Japan and Australia already had an important and effective trilateral security arrangement, but the whole purpose of the QUAD was to bring India in as another power to give it more influence and reach,” James Brown, a professor of international relations at the Tokyo campus of Temple University, told DW.

“Unfortunately, this US administration does not seem to have grasped that or valued India’s presence as an ally, which has badly alienated Modi,” he added.

However, QUAD is not about to collapse. It faces challenges in managing a partnership among four countries with distinct strategic cultures, priorities and expectations.

Initiated in 2007, primarily at the urging of then-Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, QUAD is not a treaty alliance with binding commitments on member states. Equally, it was not designed to operate with the rigid discipline of NATO-style institutions. The structure is informal and flexible providing a different type of resilience.

It is submitted that the QUAD has weathered previous periods of inactivity and political hesitation. Australia, under former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, distanced itself from the alliance out of concern that it would hurt Australian business interests in China.

Experts say that despite internal differences, QUAD is still crucial to the US-India relationship. And it should be realised that the QUAD’s future will depend less on perfect unity among members and more on their capacity to maintain cooperation despite disagreements.