2026 World Cup: Spain in the lead, but title race remains wide open

International research team uses machine learning to predict World Cup results

University of Innsbruck

Ahead of major soccer tournaments, a research team led by Achim Zeileis of the University of Innsbruck and Andreas Groll of TU Dortmund University calculates the chances of winning for all participating teams. For the 2026 World Cup in Canada, Mexico, and the United States, their model identifies Spain as the slight favorite with 14.5 %. Closely behind are England (12.4%), France (12.4%), and Germany (11.2%). Somewhat further back are Portugal (8.9%) and Argentina (8.2%), as well as the Netherlands (5.6%) and Brazil (4.7%). “Compared to previous tournaments, this year’s title race is very tight,” confirms Achim Zeileis.

A large amount of data and a comprehensive model

The forecast is based on a broad range of data: the teams’ performance in past international matches, bookmaker odds for the upcoming tournament, player ratings from club and international matches, and the average market value of the squads. This information is combined with all other available data using a machine learning algorithm. In the process, the research team faced two major challenges: “On the one hand, we had to compile all this data, some of which is only available very shortly before the tournament. For example, we’ve only known the final rosters of all 48 teams for a few days,” explains Achim Zeileis.

The challenge was also to combine statistical expertise and machine learning in such a way that a robust model of the tournament could be built. “We then used this model to simulate the entire World Cup 100,000 times: game by game, following the tournament draw and all FIFA rules,” adds Rouven Michels from Andreas Groll’s team at TU Dortmund University. Michels is currently a visiting researcher at the University of Innsbruck, where he also teaches a course on “Soccer Analytics“. Researchers from the Technical University of Munich and Molde University College in Norway also participated in the study.

Probabilities, not certainties

In the team’s predictions so far, the top favorite has actually gone on to win the title on several occasions—for example, at the 2010 World Cup, Euro 2012, and the 2019 Women’s World Cup. For Groll, however, that is not the decisive factor: “The probability that the top favorite will actually win the tournament is usually no more than 20 percent, which conversely also means that some other team wins with a probability of 80 percent. As a statistician, I’m therefore more interested in whether, on average, many of the teams we predict to go far will actually do so.”

Innsbruck-based statistician Achim Zeileis is an avid fan himself and is really looking forward to the World Cup. “That’s what drives me personally. But professionally, something else excites me: a tournament like this is a wonderful opportunity to spark an interest in probability among a huge number of people who would otherwise not come into contact with it.”

The complete forecast and chart showing all winning probabilities: https://www.zeileis.org/news/fifa2026/ (Probabilistic forecasts for the 2026 FIFA World Cup obtained by using a hybrid model that combines data, expert insights, and advanced statistical models. )

Andreas Groll of TU Dortmund University

Credit

Roland Baege

Article Publication Date

3-Jun-2026

World Cup sets stage for UT Arlington environmental study

UT Arlington scientists will track how millions of visitors, increased traffic and flights affect the city's air quality

University of Texas at Arlington

With millions of visitors expected in North Texas during the FIFA World Cup, researchers at The University of Texas at Arlington will conduct a field experiment to measure how large crowds, increased traffic and more flights affect the air quality around AT&T Stadium.

Yunyao Li, UT Arlington assistant professor of earth and environmental sciences and director of the Atmospheric Intelligence & Modeling Lab, is leading the project. Researchers will deploy environmental sensors to continuously monitor conditions before, during and after matches within a two-mile radius of the stadium. The team also has sensors around DFW International Airport and will utilize data collected from NASA satellites to understand how air and weather conditions change during large-scale events.

The Dallas–Fort Worth region is known for having stronger winds than many other metropolitan areas, Dr. Li said, which could influence how air pollution disperses. The team will also examine how conditions differ on rainy and sunny days.

“The research focuses on understanding the environmental response to large-scale human activity,” Li said. “This sudden population influx during the World Cup will, of course, increase traffic, flight activity and vehicle emissions. We want to see how much the environmental stress increases in this area, how quickly these changes occur and how quickly they disappear after the event.”

The sensors are box-like solar-powered units placed on rooftops and connected through cellular signals, allowing researchers to access real-time data remotely. They measure particulate matter, ozone, wind, humidity and temperature.

The project, funded by UTA’s College of Science and conducted in collaboration with the North Central Texas Council of Governments and the city of Arlington, aims to achieve two primary goals:

Strengthen environmental monitoring around AT&T Stadium and explore regional environmental resilience across North Texas. The effort will help researchers understand how large-scale events may temporarily disrupt or influence local environmental conditions.
Generate insights that could inform future events and urban planning.

The goal, Li said, is to identify the best ways to achieve clean air while supporting continued development.

“In the past, when people talked about air quality, they often thought we needed to stop development to achieve clean air. However, we don’t want to do that,” Li said. “We want to find an equilibrium between development and clean air—essentially, a path toward sustainable development. This means not limiting economic activity for air quality, but supporting a balance where economic activity and environmental health coexist. These events, where many people gather, can give us insight into future conditions as the Dallas–Fort Worth area continues to grow, including potential air pollution trends.”

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Thursday, June 04, 2026